Getting back on topic this thread actually ties in nicely with the inflation/central bank discussion. Delta is a perfect example...in the real world Delta should have gone bankrupt, the stock zeroed out, and the bond holders become the new owners. In whatever we have now the Central bank prints money for the Feds, who used it to bailout Delta, which results in a bankrupt company still being worth $25+ billion, and the only difference is that there are more $$$ in circulation.
Do things like that enough and that’s how you get the money supply up 35% in a year and the stock market up in a shut-down economy.
Getting back on topic this thread actually ties in nicely with the inflation/central bank discussion. Delta is a perfect example...in the real world Delta should have gone bankrupt, the stock zeroed out, and the bond holders become the new owners. In whatever we have now the Central bank prints money for the Feds, who used it to bailout Delta, which results in a bankrupt company still being worth $25+ billion, and the only difference is that there are more $$$ in circulation.
Do things like that enough and that’s how you get the money supply up 35% in a year and the stock market up in a shut-down economy.
It's a very good point Houston. What's your assessment of how many Delta's we're talking about? As we know, some segments took it on the chin with COVID, while others are, or damn well should be, cleaning the fuck up.
Take P&G, for example. All their disinfectant products were like fucking gold at the grocery store. I have been nothing short of shocked for how long it took them to supply, btw, but that's another thread. While I don't read their filings, they should be cleaning up (pardon the pun).
Of course, big pharma and PPE manufacturers. Lumber prices have been at all-tim highs with the re-focus on home ownership. And of course tech and anybody and anything in high throughput real estate and distribution, anything in mail and warehouse, cable and entertainment, etc. etc.
Sure, small business has taken it in the shorts, but let's face it: our retirement accts. aren't invested in those.
So overall, how much of the economy should we assume is propped up? I know office REITs will blow up soon when those leases reset. What else?
I like Delta and Alaska. Other US airlines can fuck off.
Yeah, I think there is a huge pent up demand for travel, so the airlines and hospitality industries will bounce back.
I’m not as convinced that business travel will ever return to pre-COVID levels though, but I’m by no means an expert.
Agree. Here at Orkin we are exploring greatly reduced air travel even in a post Covid world. For North American clients we have T&E built on top, but for the rest of the globe that came right out of hide in the contract. Someone in finance realized what our new margins are without travel, and the fact that new clients still pay the same whether we are going anywhere or not. Yeah, business travel will NEVER return to pre-Covid levels. Ever.
This is what all the corporate folks are saying. It will last until your competition meets customers face-to-face and steals them, and then everyone will be back in the air again.
I'm not giving my business to someone who won't meet with me in person, and I think a lot of people are like that. Fuck Zoom meetings. Air travel isn't something a company wants to spend money on but they're going to find out you have to if you want to be a winner.
I went to Shelton High School and have a lowly bachelor's degree in Econ from lowly UW, though. so you may hear differently from the MBA holders about this.
Counterpoint! I do agree some travel will come back, but not all. Let me give an example. Say I had a client on a 3 week job. Before Covid I would fly out and do a few days onsite with them, go home, fly back 2 weeks later to deliver some executive outbrief for two hours. In the future, the executive outbrief will be done remotely. Sure, fly out once to meet them and kiss babies, but much of the world will now see the uselessness of spending 1500 bucks going back for a two hour brief. I absolutely know business travel will be impacted by this calculus. Covid got everyone used to stupid Zoom calls. It's going to make a difference, at least for me. No more platinum 1K, probably ever. Thank Christ.
I like Delta and Alaska. Other US airlines can fuck off.
Yeah, I think there is a huge pent up demand for travel, so the airlines and hospitality industries will bounce back.
I’m not as convinced that business travel will ever return to pre-COVID levels though, but I’m by no means an expert.
Agree. Here at Orkin we are exploring greatly reduced air travel even in a post Covid world. For North American clients we have T&E built on top, but for the rest of the globe that came right out of hide in the contract. Someone in finance realized what our new margins are without travel, and the fact that new clients still pay the same whether we are going anywhere or not. Yeah, business travel will NEVER return to pre-Covid levels. Ever.
This is what all the corporate folks are saying. It will last until your competition meets customers face-to-face and steals them, and then everyone will be back in the air again.
I'm not giving my business to someone who won't meet with me in person, and I think a lot of people are like that. Fuck Zoom meetings. Air travel isn't something a company wants to spend money on but they're going to find out you have to if you want to be a winner.
I went to Shelton High School and have a lowly bachelor's degree in Econ from lowly UW, though. so you may hear differently from the MBA holders about this.
Counterpoint! I do agree some travel will come back, but not all. Let me give an example. Say I had a client on a 3 week job. Before Covid I would fly out and do a few days onsite with them, go home, fly back 2 weeks later to deliver some executive outbrief for two hours. In the future, the executive outbrief will be done remotely. Sure, fly out once to meet them and kiss babies, but much of the world will now see the uselessness of spending 1500 bucks going back for a two hour brief. I absolutely know business travel will be impacted by this calculus. Covid got everyone used to stupid Zoom calls. It's going to make a difference, at least for me. No more platinum 1K, probably ever. Thank Christ.
Self edit to mention for clients in Vegas, London, Paris and the like, I'll make both trips. If you are in Cleveland, you can go fuck off. You are lucky I will go there at all.
Getting back on topic this thread actually ties in nicely with the inflation/central bank discussion. Delta is a perfect example...in the real world Delta should have gone bankrupt, the stock zeroed out, and the bond holders become the new owners. In whatever we have now the Central bank prints money for the Feds, who used it to bailout Delta, which results in a bankrupt company still being worth $25+ billion, and the only difference is that there are more $$$ in circulation.
Do things like that enough and that’s how you get the money supply up 35% in a year and the stock market up in a shut-down economy.
It's a very good point Houston. What's your assessment of how many Delta's we're talking about? As we know, some segments took it on the chin with COVID, while others are, or damn well should be, cleaning the fuck up.
Take P&G, for example. All their disinfectant products were like fucking gold at the grocery store. I have been nothing short of shocked for how long it took them to supply, btw, but that's another thread. While I don't read their filings, they should be cleaning up (pardon the pun).
Of course, big pharma and PPE manufacturers. Lumber prices have been at all-tim highs with the re-focus on home ownership. And of course tech and anybody and anything in high throughput real estate and distribution, anything in mail and warehouse, cable and entertainment, etc. etc.
Sure, small business has taken it in the shorts, but let's face it: our retirement accts. aren't invested in those.
So overall, how much of the economy should we assume is propped up? I know office REITs will blow up soon when those leases reset. What else?
Boeing is a big one.
On a macro scale GDP shrank a couple % this year, forecasts going forward shrank, and with Biden in the forecasted corporate taxes are expected to go up. All impacting profit delivered to shareholders going forward for companies. Yet the S&P 500 is up 20%?
Balancing that against a 35% increase in money in circulation it kinda makes sense...
I’m not anti vax myself but the blind faith in vaccines and science message is propaganda. People have had seriously adverse and sometimes long term effects from vaccines.
I like Delta and Alaska. Other US airlines can fuck off.
Yeah, I think there is a huge pent up demand for travel, so the airlines and hospitality industries will bounce back.
I’m not as convinced that business travel will ever return to pre-COVID levels though, but I’m by no means an expert.
Agree. Here at Orkin we are exploring greatly reduced air travel even in a post Covid world. For North American clients we have T&E built on top, but for the rest of the globe that came right out of hide in the contract. Someone in finance realized what our new margins are without travel, and the fact that new clients still pay the same whether we are going anywhere or not. Yeah, business travel will NEVER return to pre-Covid levels. Ever.
This is what all the corporate folks are saying. It will last until your competition meets customers face-to-face and steals them, and then everyone will be back in the air again.
I'm not giving my business to someone who won't meet with me in person, and I think a lot of people are like that. Fuck Zoom meetings. Air travel isn't something a company wants to spend money on but they're going to find out you have to if you want to be a winner.
I went to Shelton High School and have a lowly bachelor's degree in Econ from lowly UW, though. so you may hear differently from the MBA holders about this.
Counterpoint! I do agree some travel will come back, but not all. Let me give an example. Say I had a client on a 3 week job. Before Covid I would fly out and do a few days onsite with them, go home, fly back 2 weeks later to deliver some executive outbrief for two hours. In the future, the executive outbrief will be done remotely. Sure, fly out once to meet them and kiss babies, but much of the world will now see the uselessness of spending 1500 bucks going back for a two hour brief. I absolutely know business travel will be impacted by this calculus. Covid got everyone used to stupid Zoom calls. It's going to make a difference, at least for me. No more platinum 1K, probably ever. Thank Christ.
Interesting point and I hear you, but I don't think that spending the 1500 is useless. Covid got people used to Zoom, but it's inferior to a face-to-face for virtually everything I can think of.
After you've been married a decade and have another ankle biter, you'll be looking to make that second trip and maybe a third one.
I’m not anti vax myself but the blind faith in vaccines and science message is propaganda. People have had seriously adverse and sometimes long term effects from vaccines.
Side discussion (tug), but I view it as a risk/reward situation. If you are high risk (age/diabetes/respiratory issues) it makes sense to get it...if you are relatively young and healthy why bother when your long-term adverse risk of catching it is very small.
The insanity of vaccine passes and keeping things shut down will go away rapidly now that the election is over...Cuomo's tweet was a clumsy confirmation of that. By April/May everything will be open, although I don't think people will be back to their pre-Covid habits.
I’m not anti vax myself but the blind faith in vaccines and science message is propaganda. People have had seriously adverse and sometimes long term effects from vaccines.
Agreed. But there are people who are deathly allergic to acitaminophen and can't take Aleve. I've got a research doc in the family, and he's a pretty conservative (as in, exceedingly careful) dude. His take on this has always been that it's such a pain in the ass when the general public gets a hold of a fact or two and runs with it. We? don't have context to put it in perspective.
Like the Gardisil vaccine for prevention of cervical cancer. His wife is an onco and he's always like, people just don't realize what an awful bitch it is to die of cancer, and there are 100s of thousands of people not giving their daughter this vaccine that drastically reduces your odds of developing this form of super deadly cancer based on facebook stories about some friend's sister's daughter having brain fog and getting sick. Again, this runs across the political spectrum, with one of the Kennedy kids leading the charge these days.
The other one he jokes about is all these non-medical people citing the ingredients in vaccines (but but aluminum!!!) and have no idea of the cocktail of bullshit they put into their bodies every day drinking a diet coke or eating processed foods.
You shouldn't have blind faith in anything. But vaccines are not on our list of problems.
I’m not anti vax myself but the blind faith in vaccines and science message is propaganda. People have had seriously adverse and sometimes long term effects from vaccines.
Side discussion (tug), but I view it as a risk/reward situation. If you are high risk (age/diabetes/respiratory issues) it makes sense to get it...if you are relatively young and healthy why bother when your long-term adverse risk of catching it is very small.
The insanity of vaccine passes and keeping things shut down will go away rapidly now that the election is over...Cuomo's tweet was a clumsy confirmation of that. By April/May everything will be open, although I don't think people will be back to their pre-Covid habits.
That's a reasonable position to take. It more or less mirrors mine. At 52, I'm not sure whether I'm going to get it or not. I'm relatively healthy, but I'm no spring chicken.
I am down 35 pounds, off of one of two BP medicines that were inflicted on me and use the other one about three times a week. Like Gordon Gekko I have a BP monitor at my desk. Red wine helps too
I am down 35 pounds, off of one of two BP medicines that were inflicted on me and use the other one about three times a week. Like Gordon Gekko I have a BP monitor at my desk. Red wine helps too
And exercise. Mostly walking now
I've moved up to a run/walk combo. Running everyday on asphalt ... the body doesn't allow that any more. I still need to check my diet ... I've got around 10 or 15 I need to lose.
I am down 35 pounds, off of one of two BP medicines that were inflicted on me and use the other one about three times a week. Like Gordon Gekko I have a BP monitor at my desk. Red wine helps too
And exercise. Mostly walking now
I'm sure hanging out in the Tug does wonders for your BP.
So United lost 7.1b in 2020, 7.7b on an adjusted basis.
US Airlines will probably top 40 billion in losses in 2020. Given their borrowing, I don't think many will have to file Chapter 11 unless this drags on all 2021, but it will hinder their performance in the future for sure.
I am down 35 pounds, off of one of two BP medicines that were inflicted on me and use the other one about three times a week. Like Gordon Gekko I have a BP monitor at my desk. Red wine helps too
And exercise. Mostly walking now
I'm sure hanging out in the Tug does wonders for your BP.
Comments
@RuffaloSoldier
More Tug bullshit from obk.
Do things like that enough and that’s how you get the money supply up 35% in a year and the stock market up in a shut-down economy.
Take P&G, for example. All their disinfectant products were like fucking gold at the grocery store. I have been nothing short of shocked for how long it took them to supply, btw, but that's another thread. While I don't read their filings, they should be cleaning up (pardon the pun).
Of course, big pharma and PPE manufacturers. Lumber prices have been at all-tim highs with the re-focus on home ownership. And of course tech and anybody and anything in high throughput real estate and distribution, anything in mail and warehouse, cable and entertainment, etc. etc.
Sure, small business has taken it in the shorts, but let's face it: our retirement accts. aren't invested in those.
So overall, how much of the economy should we assume is propped up? I know office REITs will blow up soon when those leases reset. What else?
On a macro scale GDP shrank a couple % this year, forecasts going forward shrank, and with Biden in the forecasted corporate taxes are expected to go up. All impacting profit delivered to shareholders going forward for companies. Yet the S&P 500 is up 20%?
Balancing that against a 35% increase in money in circulation it kinda makes sense...
After you've been married a decade and have another ankle biter, you'll be looking to make that second trip and maybe a third one.
The insanity of vaccine passes and keeping things shut down will go away rapidly now that the election is over...Cuomo's tweet was a clumsy confirmation of that. By April/May everything will be open, although I don't think people will be back to their pre-Covid habits.
Like the Gardisil vaccine for prevention of cervical cancer. His wife is an onco and he's always like, people just don't realize what an awful bitch it is to die of cancer, and there are 100s of thousands of people not giving their daughter this vaccine that drastically reduces your odds of developing this form of super deadly cancer based on facebook stories about some friend's sister's daughter having brain fog and getting sick. Again, this runs across the political spectrum, with one of the Kennedy kids leading the charge these days.
The other one he jokes about is all these non-medical people citing the ingredients in vaccines (but but aluminum!!!) and have no idea of the cocktail of bullshit they put into their bodies every day drinking a diet coke or eating processed foods.
You shouldn't have blind faith in anything. But vaccines are not on our list of problems.
And exercise. Mostly walking now
Fat fuck creep.
lol
US Airlines will probably top 40 billion in losses in 2020. Given their borrowing, I don't think many will have to file Chapter 11 unless this drags on all 2021, but it will hinder their performance in the future for sure.
Why I've cut back drastically.