@GrundleStiltzkin I am relying on you to get the photos of the crowds at the competing rallies from the Twatters for me. TYFYS
These rallies should be a good indicator of enthusiasm. MN is ground zero for the BLM movement and is as blue as blue can get. If Trump doubles him on crowd size there, that says something, to me anyway. Trump may not win MN, but to even be competitive spells doom for Joe in other parts of the Midwest.
I still don’t think rally size is a strong indicator. If you recall, we are in the grippes of a GLOBAL PANDEMIC.
President Donald Trump’s campaign mostly cancelled a Friday event scheduled to take place in Minnesota, downsizing it from a rally of 6,000 people to a much smaller event with 250 attendees.
The event, originally scheduled to take place at the Rochester International Airport in southern Minnesota’s Olmstead County, had been moved to the property of two businesses in the area, which planned to accommodate an outdoor crowd of 6,000. However, the campaign said Thursday evening it was moving the event back to the airport, with maximum capacity set at 250.
@GrundleStiltzkin I am relying on you to get the photos of the crowds at the competing rallies from the Twatters for me. TYFYS
These rallies should be a good indicator of enthusiasm. MN is ground zero for the BLM movement and is as blue as blue can get. If Trump doubles him on crowd size there, that says something, to me anyway. Trump may not win MN, but to even be competitive spells doom for Joe in other parts of the Midwest.
I still don’t think rally size is a strong indicator. If you recall, we are in the grippes of a GLOBAL PANDEMIC.
President Donald Trump’s campaign mostly cancelled a Friday event scheduled to take place in Minnesota, downsizing it from a rally of 6,000 people to a much smaller event with 250 attendees.
The event, originally scheduled to take place at the Rochester International Airport in southern Minnesota’s Olmstead County, had been moved to the property of two businesses in the area, which planned to accommodate an outdoor crowd of 6,000. However, the campaign said Thursday evening it was moving the event back to the airport, with maximum capacity set at 250.
I read somewhere that it was reduced due to local gov't rules on how many people are allowed to attend.
Take all the screenshots you want, this fucker is over and done with on election night. Trump landslide much like Reagan Mondale. The only impact Dem cheating will have is maybe they win a few congressional seats that they would otherwise lose. Such as the 4 drippy cunts, Maxine -James-Brown-Waters, Schiff the little boy fucker and BOOBS Pelosi. Some of these may still fall despite cheating.
Take all the screenshots you want, this fucker is over and done with on election night. Trump landslide much like Reagan Mondale. The only impact Dem cheating will have is maybe they win a few congressional seats that they would otherwise lose. Such as the 4 drippy cunts, Maxine -James-Brown-Waters, Schiff the little boy fucker and BOOBS Pelosi. Some of these may still fall despite cheating.
This year the race is much simpler. The third-party candidates are marginal and there’s been no earth-shaking last-second surprise despite the best efforts of Team Trump to get Huntergate off the ground. CES has Biden ahead by eight, and their data matches the surprising trend in other polling this year in which Trump is overperforming among minorities relative to 2016 whereas Biden is overperforming with white voters. Ruffini has the key numbers:
Trump really has made inroads with Hispanics this year, but Biden’s made inroads with whites — of both education groups — and whites are a much bigger group. And as Ruffini notes, Biden is killing it with people who either stayed home four years ago or voted third-party. He’s up 56/27 among that group, a better than two-to-one margin.
Some readers are looking at that and thinking, “If Trump won despite being behind in the polls in 2016, he can win despite being behind in the polls now.” Absolutely, especially if there’s a last-second shift in Pennsylvania. But bear a few things in mind. First, Silver estimated awhile back that Trump has a realistic shot of winning the electoral college again if he loses the popular vote by no more than five points. If he trails by more than that, the odds get very long. CES has him trailing by eight. If we assume they’ve underestimated him today to the same degree they did four years ago, lowballing him by two points in his final margin against Hillary, then he’s trailing Biden by six. Still long odds.
Take all the screenshots you want, this fucker is over and done with on election night. Trump landslide much like Reagan Mondale. The only impact Dem cheating will have is maybe they win a few congressional seats that they would otherwise lose. Such as the 4 drippy cunts, Maxine -James-Brown-Waters, Schiff the little boy fucker and BOOBS Pelosi. Some of these may still fall despite cheating.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
Pretty much
My big fear is having to come here if Biden wins
Please vote for Trump
Nah. The message boards are always best after a loss.
GOP only trails by 100k in early voting in Florida, and that’s with a major storm in the panhandle. Trump is going to win Florida handily. I don’t see a Biden path to a win. He’s campaigning in Minnesota and Michigan three days before the election he supposedly wins easily according to The News. That should not be happening.
Take all the screenshots you want, this fucker is over and done with on election night. Trump landslide much like Reagan Mondale. The only impact Dem cheating will have is maybe they win a few congressional seats that they would otherwise lose. Such as the 4 drippy cunts, Maxine -James-Brown-Waters, Schiff the little boy fucker and BOOBS Pelosi. Some of these may still fall despite cheating.
Take all the screenshots you want, this fucker is over and done with on election night. Trump landslide much like Reagan Mondale. The only impact Dem cheating will have is maybe they win a few congressional seats that they would otherwise lose. Such as the 4 drippy cunts, Maxine -James-Brown-Waters, Schiff the little boy fucker and BOOBS Pelosi. Some of these may still fall despite cheating.
Poleing is pure fiction.
I have a love/hate relationship with confirmation bias.
Take all the screenshots you want, this fucker is over and done with on election night. Trump landslide much like Reagan Mondale. The only impact Dem cheating will have is maybe they win a few congressional seats that they would otherwise lose. Such as the 4 drippy cunts, Maxine -James-Brown-Waters, Schiff the little boy fucker and BOOBS Pelosi. Some of these may still fall despite cheating.
Take all the screenshots you want, this fucker is over and done with on election night. Trump landslide much like Reagan Mondale. The only impact Dem cheating will have is maybe they win a few congressional seats that they would otherwise lose. Such as the 4 drippy cunts, Maxine -James-Brown-Waters, Schiff the little boy fucker and BOOBS Pelosi. Some of these may still fall despite cheating.
Poleing is pure fiction.
I have a love/hate relationship with confirmation bias.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
Pretty much
My big fear is having to come here if Biden wins
Please vote for Trump
Nah. The message boards are always best after a loss.
Biden will fail everyone soon enough, and he’s actually corrupt. The Obama years were awesome on the offense for right-leaning posters and led to Trump winning.
Meanwhile, younger looking husband is likely banging someone else, knowing my experience of kooky white leftist married people.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
Pretty much
My big fear is having to come here if Biden wins
Please vote for Trump
Nah. The message boards are always best after a loss.
Biden will fail everyone soon enough, and he’s actually corrupt. The Obama years were awesome on the offense for right-leaning posters and led to Trump winning.
Meanwhile, younger looking husband is likely banging someone else, knowing my experience of kooky white leftist married people.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
Pretty much
My big fear is having to come here if Biden wins
Please vote for Trump
Nah. The message boards are always best after a loss.
Biden will fail everyone soon enough, and he’s actually corrupt. The Obama years were awesome on the offense for right-leaning posters and led to Trump winning.
Meanwhile, younger looking husband is likely banging dudes, knowing my experience of kooky white leftist married people.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
Pretty much
My big fear is having to come here if Biden wins
Please vote for Trump
Nate Silver is hard and there’s no lube. Should be interesting.
Advance warning, this will be a 2-part TL, DR post but this is how I see the election heading into the final weekend of the election - cliff notes version is that if I was a betting person I would expect that we see a Trump re-election Tuesday evening
A few weeks ago @Swaye had an interesting post regarding items not making sense in terms of polling vs what he was seeing. I DM'ed him some thoughts at the time but didn't want to make public. Many of the points he made then have only been driven home in more detail since then.
Back in 2016 when I made a rather infamous journey around the country playing golf for a month, I came back fairly convinced that Trump was going to win the race based on what I saw driving through places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The things I saw were things that people in places like Seattle, LA, New York, etc. don't really realize because they don't get out, they don't let their eyes and ears listen, and don't understand that there's a world out there far greater than the big cities. It's an issue that anybody that lives in Washington can see fairly easily simply by crossing the mountain and going back and forth. Instead of understanding that the challenges each face are unique and different (not necessarily better), there's an elitism that I see in cities that look down at those that don't live in cities. That's an undercurrent that is true around the country.
Make no mistake that this election isn't Biden vs Trump. This is an election of Trump vs Trump. I've never seen a single presidential candidate that had less momentum in my lifetime than Biden. Bob Dole was a nice guy in 1996 but nobody actually thought that he'd win. I guess when you look back at 2004 the election was reasonably close but John Kerry never struck me as Presidential. Without taking anything away from John McCain, but he got blown out in 2008 and basically had the career achievement award nomination. I wasn't old enough to go through the Mondale beat down in 1984 but I suspect that the enthusiasm FOR Biden is comparable to that. Data that I've seen says it's close to 40% the number of people that are voting for Biden because they are voting against Trump. Enthusiasm for traditionally drives turnaround ... not enthusiasm against as apathy sets in.
The pro's and con's for Trump (the candidate) as I see them:
+: His slogan of "Promises Made Promises Kept" are largely accurate and one of the data points that points to that is the significant increase in median household income during his administration; work with minority communities notably opportunity zones and funding with HCBUs, criminal justice reform, insistence of moving forward with the economy through COVID as US performance has massively outperformed peer countries, and foreign policy wins through peace agreements to the point that foreign policy wasn't even a topic during the debates (something I can't remember ever seeing previously and doubt that will ever occur again)
-: Trump the person has his many warts and his communication/style leaves him open to easy attacks (the racism narrative is one that has been repeated so often that perception is reality regardless - and it's been allowed to be applied to any of his voters); messaging during COVID definitely could have been better; and at least personally I view the turnover in his staff/cabinet as being a massive red flag.
It's hard for me to put the list together for Biden simply because I don't really know what he's running on other than "he's not Trump" and he's a link back to the Obama years (which as Trump has pointed out is why he was elected in the first place. Biden's warts are many as I see them:
Make no mistake, Biden is a figure-head. The Democratic candidates in the primaries were all so weak that Bernie (who everybody knows can't win a national election vs Trump) was running away from the race. There was a massive scramble done to make sure that Biden was the face of the party and as part of that a number of concessions made to Bernie and his wing of the party to pull the strings behind the scenes. And don't forget that of those candidates that got blown out, Harris was arguably the biggest blow out of them all despite high hopes going in.
Biden's likely inability to get through a 4-year term. For those that I'd consider to be intelligent voters that weigh all the factors, I have to believe that this is a consideration. Even if you're inclined to vote for Biden, would you vote for Harris against Trump? Normally VP Debates don't mean much but she got blown out by Pence. Harris got asked tough questions on 60 Minutes and effectively laughed them away because she didn't know how to answer. I just don't see this as being inconsequential.
The summer of rioting and calls to defund the police I also don't see playing well with the typical average voter. I've had plenty of conversations with a number of people that go across typical leanings to both parties and people are tired of the crime, the drugs, and the looting. There's an undercurrent out there I believe of people saying enough is enough and feeling betrayed by the people that many have previously voted in office.
Most importantly, people are tired of the lockdowns. People look around and see their favorite restaurants close. Seeing small businesses closed. Remember the early days of the lock down where going out to do anything was highly limiting. Parents all over are feeling the effects of no school and struggling with the feeling of their kids falling behind and being largely powerless to do anything about it. Messaging that we're effectively going to go back to lockdowns this winter, citing Australia as an example of how to combat COVID (with the close to 4 months of lockdowns that Melbourne had), and continuing to take people's freedoms away isn't going to resonate.
I think it was Race that talked about ACB and the approval ratings that she had for approval and I think this is a really underrated comment. There was a lot of blowback at the original timing of there being a nomination dating back to the Garrick nomination in 2016 and I don't blame anybody for calling the Republicans for being hypocritical (there's nuance but some shit was deserved). If Trump nominated someone that controversial and not a slam dunk candidate this could have gone sideways. But ACB isn't controversial and there wasn't a lot of areas to really criticize her for and that was shown in the approval numbers. This is an underrated uptick for Trump IMO because this narrative that he's just packing the court with biased judges took a hit. Further, it makes any talk (and failure to answer the question of court packing, statehood to DC and Puerto Rico to pack the Senate, etc) from the Democrats more of an eye raiser that doesn't play well with the general electorate because they see it as "so Party A does that then Party B does that and back/forth until what point?"
The other big narrative to me right now is the uptick in the voters in the Hispanic and African American communities to Trump. Talked about some of the reasons in the AA community earlier (+ the Platinum Plan that the Democrats stupidly blew off saying "after the election"). But the Hispanic community is going to be a huge issue in this election for the Democrats. Anybody paying attention sees the Democratic Party heading more towards a socialist path. The Hispanic community by and large has plenty of experience with socialism and that is in large part why so many immigrated to the US in the first part. It's such an important angle to watch because the success of the Democrats for so long has been by combining the academic elite + minority + union worker coalitions together. In 2016 we started seeing the Democrats lose the union coalition in the Rust Belt. In 2020 we're starting to see the minority coalition to start crumbling. Conversely, the Republicans and Trump need to be very careful about losing the female vote (particularly white suburban female vote) as Trump's warts in his tone/attitude/words are major turn offs here.
This should be a bigger win for Trump than in 2016. Lots of evidence out there suggesting that Biden is struggling with both early vote numbers (quantity) and the aforementioned struggling with traditional dependable voting basis. There's panic movement to mobilize but it's almost assuredly too late.
Georgia/North Carolina
My gut says that these two states will get split between Trump and Biden with Trump winning Georgia and Biden winning North Carolina. If these states both go to one or the other that will be a precursor to the outcome of the race.
Ohio
This is going to go to Trump. Biden's flip flopping and lies on fracking and energy will torpedo him here.
Pennsylvania
My gut says this will end up similar to Ohio but obviously Philly will be a massive wild card here. The rioting this week resulting from the local area fatal police shooting (not talking protest, but rioting/looting) I just get the sense that the average person has fatigue from and isn't helping in flipping the state to Biden. The question I ask myself is what has materially transpired in the last 4 years to flip the state from Trump to Biden? Hard for me to come up with a compelling argument.
Michigan
This is a fascinating state to me because it was one that the pollsters got so wrong in 2016 and my gut says that they are wildly off base in 2020. The lockdown fatigue in Michigan may be as extreme as anywhere else in the country. I've heard rumors that autoworkers are less supportive of Trump as they were in 2016 ... but then you hear from I believe a congressional rep reporting out this week that the feedback she was getting was not as advantageous to the Democrats as they thought. The giant wild card here is that the Senate Race in the state has a Republican candidate in John James that I've heard a few interviews of and he comes off as being very impressive. The more successful he is the more successful Trump will be in the state. I think it's a too close to call state at this point and it's not a state the Trump must win to get over 270 IF he wins Pennsylvania. Win both Pennsylvania and Michigan and the path for Biden to win gets slimmer and requires him pulling off the Georgia/North Carolina double or flipping Arizona.
Wisconsin/Minnesota
To say Wisconsin is a toss up isn't much of a shocker. But I agree with some that have pointed out that Minnesota is closer than people want to think for a couple of reasons. First, the blowback from the George Floyd riots and the feeling that the state/local government failed to protect the community was palpable after the fact. Second, my impression of the state is that it's a situation where the Minneapolis/St Paul area drives the state (similar to how Seattle drives Washington). I think Trump's rally where the Governor/Attorney General put capacity restrictions on the gathering is just terrible PR in mobilizing people for Trump. Trump's biggest strength as a politician is making those individuals that feel like they don't have a voice believe that they have a voice with Trump. I'm fascinated at seeing the numbers coming in for Minnesota on Tuesday.
Iowa
This is probably a lean to Trump at the moment and one of the biggest "blockers" for Trump in making the path for Biden more difficult to get to 270 as the math gets much easier for Trump with Iowa in the fold (similar story if Trump gets Nevada - but I expect Biden to win there)
Arizona
There seems to be this narrative that Biden is in a good spot in Arizona. Given the trending in the Hispanic vote, I find that hard to believe. Most polling suggests its within the margin of error (possible slight lean to Trump) and we know that Trump outperforms almost all of the polling in general. The only downside I see here is a Senate race where the Republican incumbent is in trouble. However, I'd be willing to bet that the way it goes down in Arizona is that they go check/balance route and split the party vote for President/Senate.
Comments
The event, originally scheduled to take place at the Rochester International Airport in southern Minnesota’s Olmstead County, had been moved to the property of two businesses in the area, which planned to accommodate an outdoor crowd of 6,000. However, the campaign said Thursday evening it was moving the event back to the airport, with maximum capacity set at 250.
Poleing is pure fiction.
@SpiritHorse won't return my calls.
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/10/30/poll-51000-likely-voters-biden-51-trump-43/
Trump really has made inroads with Hispanics this year, but Biden’s made inroads with whites — of both education groups — and whites are a much bigger group. And as Ruffini notes, Biden is killing it with people who either stayed home four years ago or voted third-party. He’s up 56/27 among that group, a better than two-to-one margin.
Some readers are looking at that and thinking, “If Trump won despite being behind in the polls in 2016, he can win despite being behind in the polls now.” Absolutely, especially if there’s a last-second shift in Pennsylvania. But bear a few things in mind. First, Silver estimated awhile back that Trump has a realistic shot of winning the electoral college again if he loses the popular vote by no more than five points. If he trails by more than that, the odds get very long. CES has him trailing by eight. If we assume they’ve underestimated him today to the same degree they did four years ago, lowballing him by two points in his final margin against Hillary, then he’s trailing Biden by six. Still long odds.
@dnc
Meanwhile, younger looking husband is likely banging someone else, knowing my experience of kooky white leftist married people.
https://m.facebook.com/latinolaughter/videos/948316705678024/
A few weeks ago @Swaye had an interesting post regarding items not making sense in terms of polling vs what he was seeing. I DM'ed him some thoughts at the time but didn't want to make public. Many of the points he made then have only been driven home in more detail since then.
Back in 2016 when I made a rather infamous journey around the country playing golf for a month, I came back fairly convinced that Trump was going to win the race based on what I saw driving through places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The things I saw were things that people in places like Seattle, LA, New York, etc. don't really realize because they don't get out, they don't let their eyes and ears listen, and don't understand that there's a world out there far greater than the big cities. It's an issue that anybody that lives in Washington can see fairly easily simply by crossing the mountain and going back and forth. Instead of understanding that the challenges each face are unique and different (not necessarily better), there's an elitism that I see in cities that look down at those that don't live in cities. That's an undercurrent that is true around the country.
Make no mistake that this election isn't Biden vs Trump. This is an election of Trump vs Trump. I've never seen a single presidential candidate that had less momentum in my lifetime than Biden. Bob Dole was a nice guy in 1996 but nobody actually thought that he'd win. I guess when you look back at 2004 the election was reasonably close but John Kerry never struck me as Presidential. Without taking anything away from John McCain, but he got blown out in 2008 and basically had the career achievement award nomination. I wasn't old enough to go through the Mondale beat down in 1984 but I suspect that the enthusiasm FOR Biden is comparable to that. Data that I've seen says it's close to 40% the number of people that are voting for Biden because they are voting against Trump. Enthusiasm for traditionally drives turnaround ... not enthusiasm against as apathy sets in.
The pro's and con's for Trump (the candidate) as I see them:
+: His slogan of "Promises Made Promises Kept" are largely accurate and one of the data points that points to that is the significant increase in median household income during his administration; work with minority communities notably opportunity zones and funding with HCBUs, criminal justice reform, insistence of moving forward with the economy through COVID as US performance has massively outperformed peer countries, and foreign policy wins through peace agreements to the point that foreign policy wasn't even a topic during the debates (something I can't remember ever seeing previously and doubt that will ever occur again)
-: Trump the person has his many warts and his communication/style leaves him open to easy attacks (the racism narrative is one that has been repeated so often that perception is reality regardless - and it's been allowed to be applied to any of his voters); messaging during COVID definitely could have been better; and at least personally I view the turnover in his staff/cabinet as being a massive red flag.
It's hard for me to put the list together for Biden simply because I don't really know what he's running on other than "he's not Trump" and he's a link back to the Obama years (which as Trump has pointed out is why he was elected in the first place. Biden's warts are many as I see them:
- Most importantly, people are tired of the lockdowns. People look around and see their favorite restaurants close. Seeing small businesses closed. Remember the early days of the lock down where going out to do anything was highly limiting. Parents all over are feeling the effects of no school and struggling with the feeling of their kids falling behind and being largely powerless to do anything about it. Messaging that we're effectively going to go back to lockdowns this winter, citing Australia as an example of how to combat COVID (with the close to 4 months of lockdowns that Melbourne had), and continuing to take people's freedoms away isn't going to resonate.
I think it was Race that talked about ACB and the approval ratings that she had for approval and I think this is a really underrated comment. There was a lot of blowback at the original timing of there being a nomination dating back to the Garrick nomination in 2016 and I don't blame anybody for calling the Republicans for being hypocritical (there's nuance but some shit was deserved). If Trump nominated someone that controversial and not a slam dunk candidate this could have gone sideways. But ACB isn't controversial and there wasn't a lot of areas to really criticize her for and that was shown in the approval numbers. This is an underrated uptick for Trump IMO because this narrative that he's just packing the court with biased judges took a hit. Further, it makes any talk (and failure to answer the question of court packing, statehood to DC and Puerto Rico to pack the Senate, etc) from the Democrats more of an eye raiser that doesn't play well with the general electorate because they see it as "so Party A does that then Party B does that and back/forth until what point?"The other big narrative to me right now is the uptick in the voters in the Hispanic and African American communities to Trump. Talked about some of the reasons in the AA community earlier (+ the Platinum Plan that the Democrats stupidly blew off saying "after the election"). But the Hispanic community is going to be a huge issue in this election for the Democrats. Anybody paying attention sees the Democratic Party heading more towards a socialist path. The Hispanic community by and large has plenty of experience with socialism and that is in large part why so many immigrated to the US in the first part. It's such an important angle to watch because the success of the Democrats for so long has been by combining the academic elite + minority + union worker coalitions together. In 2016 we started seeing the Democrats lose the union coalition in the Rust Belt. In 2020 we're starting to see the minority coalition to start crumbling. Conversely, the Republicans and Trump need to be very careful about losing the female vote (particularly white suburban female vote) as Trump's warts in his tone/attitude/words are major turn offs here.
Florida
This should be a bigger win for Trump than in 2016. Lots of evidence out there suggesting that Biden is struggling with both early vote numbers (quantity) and the aforementioned struggling with traditional dependable voting basis. There's panic movement to mobilize but it's almost assuredly too late.
Georgia/North Carolina
My gut says that these two states will get split between Trump and Biden with Trump winning Georgia and Biden winning North Carolina. If these states both go to one or the other that will be a precursor to the outcome of the race.
Ohio
This is going to go to Trump. Biden's flip flopping and lies on fracking and energy will torpedo him here.
Pennsylvania
My gut says this will end up similar to Ohio but obviously Philly will be a massive wild card here. The rioting this week resulting from the local area fatal police shooting (not talking protest, but rioting/looting) I just get the sense that the average person has fatigue from and isn't helping in flipping the state to Biden. The question I ask myself is what has materially transpired in the last 4 years to flip the state from Trump to Biden? Hard for me to come up with a compelling argument.
Michigan
This is a fascinating state to me because it was one that the pollsters got so wrong in 2016 and my gut says that they are wildly off base in 2020. The lockdown fatigue in Michigan may be as extreme as anywhere else in the country. I've heard rumors that autoworkers are less supportive of Trump as they were in 2016 ... but then you hear from I believe a congressional rep reporting out this week that the feedback she was getting was not as advantageous to the Democrats as they thought. The giant wild card here is that the Senate Race in the state has a Republican candidate in John James that I've heard a few interviews of and he comes off as being very impressive. The more successful he is the more successful Trump will be in the state. I think it's a too close to call state at this point and it's not a state the Trump must win to get over 270 IF he wins Pennsylvania. Win both Pennsylvania and Michigan and the path for Biden to win gets slimmer and requires him pulling off the Georgia/North Carolina double or flipping Arizona.
Wisconsin/Minnesota
To say Wisconsin is a toss up isn't much of a shocker. But I agree with some that have pointed out that Minnesota is closer than people want to think for a couple of reasons. First, the blowback from the George Floyd riots and the feeling that the state/local government failed to protect the community was palpable after the fact. Second, my impression of the state is that it's a situation where the Minneapolis/St Paul area drives the state (similar to how Seattle drives Washington). I think Trump's rally where the Governor/Attorney General put capacity restrictions on the gathering is just terrible PR in mobilizing people for Trump. Trump's biggest strength as a politician is making those individuals that feel like they don't have a voice believe that they have a voice with Trump. I'm fascinated at seeing the numbers coming in for Minnesota on Tuesday.
Iowa
This is probably a lean to Trump at the moment and one of the biggest "blockers" for Trump in making the path for Biden more difficult to get to 270 as the math gets much easier for Trump with Iowa in the fold (similar story if Trump gets Nevada - but I expect Biden to win there)
Arizona
There seems to be this narrative that Biden is in a good spot in Arizona. Given the trending in the Hispanic vote, I find that hard to believe. Most polling suggests its within the margin of error (possible slight lean to Trump) and we know that Trump outperforms almost all of the polling in general. The only downside I see here is a Senate race where the Republican incumbent is in trouble. However, I'd be willing to bet that the way it goes down in Arizona is that they go check/balance route and split the party vote for President/Senate.
My final call is that I see Trump winning 280-258