This is what doesn't make sense about the 538 prediction. 538 gives Trump a 10% chance of winning BUT also says PENN is the tipping point state for either candidate. Polls still indicate a Biden lean in PENN but even Silver is saying that the state could be more of a toss up. Following 538's own logic Trump's chances should be way higher than 1 in 10.
This is what doesn't make sense about the 538 prediction. 538 gives Trump a 10% chance of winning BUT also says PENN is the tipping point state for either candidate. Polls still indicate a Biden lean in PENN but even Silver is saying that the state could be more of a toss up. Following 538's own logic Trump's chances should be way higher than 1 in 10.
Yep, the 10% is probably putting way too much weight on Georgia, Florida, Iowa and Texas being polled close as even or slightly in Biden’s favor. Would be shocked if Trump lost any of them. Take that premise out and it’s way more than 10%, probably more like 40%. You can say the odds of winning 3 coin flips in a row is 12.5% on the surface, but if the first 2 are a given as wins its 50% in reality.
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H thinks that is a bad thing
Trump won't get more than 40 this time
The idea people still take anything that clown says seriously blows my mind...
He works for all of us to be better off and doesn’t say “Learn to Code” to blue-collar workers.
Huge scoop. It’s warmer in Miami than Michigan. Do these morons even leave their Georgetown condos?
"Those supreme court justices - he hand-picked them and that's not right"
I thought she was just being stupid and tried to explain that Obama had hand-picked his appointees. She did not know the President did the nominating.
Almost everyone at the party was voting Biden...Mrs. Lebam was totally disgusted on the way home. I have to go to better parties...
W. Montana is nice too. Stay the fuck out of Missoula and Bozeman.
The energy certainly says Trump. Those ain't Slo Joe's people!