ELECTION 2020 POLE
Comments
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TRUMPWhat about Texas you kamala loving frog
And legit TLDR, keep Teqing Teq -
TRUMP
No chance Texas goes socialistLoneStarDawg said:What about Texas you kamala loving frog
And legit TLDR, keep Teqing Teq -
TRUMP
Made the same call yesterday, 280. Just with Trump winning NC and losing Michigan. Agree he wins Florida rather easily.Tequilla said:As for the key states, this is how I see them:
Florida
This should be a bigger win for Trump than in 2016. Lots of evidence out there suggesting that Biden is struggling with both early vote numbers (quantity) and the aforementioned struggling with traditional dependable voting basis. There's panic movement to mobilize but it's almost assuredly too late.
Georgia/North Carolina
My gut says that these two states will get split between Trump and Biden with Trump winning Georgia and Biden winning North Carolina. If these states both go to one or the other that will be a precursor to the outcome of the race.
Ohio
This is going to go to Trump. Biden's flip flopping and lies on fracking and energy will torpedo him here.
Pennsylvania
My gut says this will end up similar to Ohio but obviously Philly will be a massive wild card here. The rioting this week resulting from the local area fatal police shooting (not talking protest, but rioting/looting) I just get the sense that the average person has fatigue from and isn't helping in flipping the state to Biden. The question I ask myself is what has materially transpired in the last 4 years to flip the state from Trump to Biden? Hard for me to come up with a compelling argument.
Michigan
This is a fascinating state to me because it was one that the pollsters got so wrong in 2016 and my gut says that they are wildly off base in 2020. The lockdown fatigue in Michigan may be as extreme as anywhere else in the country. I've heard rumors that autoworkers are less supportive of Trump as they were in 2016 ... but then you hear from I believe a congressional rep reporting out this week that the feedback she was getting was not as advantageous to the Democrats as they thought. The giant wild card here is that the Senate Race in the state has a Republican candidate in John James that I've heard a few interviews of and he comes off as being very impressive. The more successful he is the more successful Trump will be in the state. I think it's a too close to call state at this point and it's not a state the Trump must win to get over 270 IF he wins Pennsylvania. Win both Pennsylvania and Michigan and the path for Biden to win gets slimmer and requires him pulling off the Georgia/North Carolina double or flipping Arizona.
Wisconsin/Minnesota
To say Wisconsin is a toss up isn't much of a shocker. But I agree with some that have pointed out that Minnesota is closer than people want to think for a couple of reasons. First, the blowback from the George Floyd riots and the feeling that the state/local government failed to protect the community was palpable after the fact. Second, my impression of the state is that it's a situation where the Minneapolis/St Paul area drives the state (similar to how Seattle drives Washington). I think Trump's rally where the Governor/Attorney General put capacity restrictions on the gathering is just terrible PR in mobilizing people for Trump. Trump's biggest strength as a politician is making those individuals that feel like they don't have a voice believe that they have a voice with Trump. I'm fascinated at seeing the numbers coming in for Minnesota on Tuesday.
Iowa
This is probably a lean to Trump at the moment and one of the biggest "blockers" for Trump in making the path for Biden more difficult to get to 270 as the math gets much easier for Trump with Iowa in the fold (similar story if Trump gets Nevada - but I expect Biden to win there)
Arizona
There seems to be this narrative that Biden is in a good spot in Arizona. Given the trending in the Hispanic vote, I find that hard to believe. Most polling suggests its within the margin of error (possible slight lean to Trump) and we know that Trump outperforms almost all of the polling in general. The only downside I see here is a Senate race where the Republican incumbent is in trouble. However, I'd be willing to bet that the way it goes down in Arizona is that they go check/balance route and split the party vote for President/Senate.
My final call is that I see Trump winning 280-258
Polls were wrong in 2016 obviously, mainstream is saying they were right in 2018, so the problem is fixed. 2018 was basically a conventional year. Problem is there was no Trump on the ballot in 2018 and it’s not conventional again. -
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BIDEN
If Trump loses Georgia it indicates he will not have enough support nationally to win where he needs to in other statesTequilla said:As for the key states, this is how I see them:
Florida
This should be a bigger win for Trump than in 2016. Lots of evidence out there suggesting that Biden is struggling with both early vote numbers (quantity) and the aforementioned struggling with traditional dependable voting basis. There's panic movement to mobilize but it's almost assuredly too late.
Georgia/North Carolina
My gut says that these two states will get split between Trump and Biden with Trump winning Georgia and Biden winning North Carolina. If these states both go to one or the other that will be a precursor to the outcome of the race.
Ohio
This is going to go to Trump. Biden's flip flopping and lies on fracking and energy will torpedo him here.
Pennsylvania
My gut says this will end up similar to Ohio but obviously Philly will be a massive wild card here. The rioting this week resulting from the local area fatal police shooting (not talking protest, but rioting/looting) I just get the sense that the average person has fatigue from and isn't helping in flipping the state to Biden. The question I ask myself is what has materially transpired in the last 4 years to flip the state from Trump to Biden? Hard for me to come up with a compelling argument.
Michigan
This is a fascinating state to me because it was one that the pollsters got so wrong in 2016 and my gut says that they are wildly off base in 2020. The lockdown fatigue in Michigan may be as extreme as anywhere else in the country. I've heard rumors that autoworkers are less supportive of Trump as they were in 2016 ... but then you hear from I believe a congressional rep reporting out this week that the feedback she was getting was not as advantageous to the Democrats as they thought. The giant wild card here is that the Senate Race in the state has a Republican candidate in John James that I've heard a few interviews of and he comes off as being very impressive. The more successful he is the more successful Trump will be in the state. I think it's a too close to call state at this point and it's not a state the Trump must win to get over 270 IF he wins Pennsylvania. Win both Pennsylvania and Michigan and the path for Biden to win gets slimmer and requires him pulling off the Georgia/North Carolina double or flipping Arizona.
Wisconsin/Minnesota
To say Wisconsin is a toss up isn't much of a shocker. But I agree with some that have pointed out that Minnesota is closer than people want to think for a couple of reasons. First, the blowback from the George Floyd riots and the feeling that the state/local government failed to protect the community was palpable after the fact. Second, my impression of the state is that it's a situation where the Minneapolis/St Paul area drives the state (similar to how Seattle drives Washington). I think Trump's rally where the Governor/Attorney General put capacity restrictions on the gathering is just terrible PR in mobilizing people for Trump. Trump's biggest strength as a politician is making those individuals that feel like they don't have a voice believe that they have a voice with Trump. I'm fascinated at seeing the numbers coming in for Minnesota on Tuesday.
Iowa
This is probably a lean to Trump at the moment and one of the biggest "blockers" for Trump in making the path for Biden more difficult to get to 270 as the math gets much easier for Trump with Iowa in the fold (similar story if Trump gets Nevada - but I expect Biden to win there)
Arizona
There seems to be this narrative that Biden is in a good spot in Arizona. Given the trending in the Hispanic vote, I find that hard to believe. Most polling suggests its within the margin of error (possible slight lean to Trump) and we know that Trump outperforms almost all of the polling in general. The only downside I see here is a Senate race where the Republican incumbent is in trouble. However, I'd be willing to bet that the way it goes down in Arizona is that they go check/balance route and split the party vote for President/Senate.
My final call is that I see Trump winning 280-258
If Trump wins Florida >3 he has a decent shot at winning in the rustbelt , If he wins FL by >4 Trump wins easily.
Trump wont have a big enough lead in PA to overcome the philly ballotharvestingcheating
If Trump can sneak away NH or NV and the odd districts in ME and NE he can still get to 270 without MI, MN, or PA... will only need WI (50/50) and AZ (R lean)
The higher the turnout is on election day the better for Trump -
TRUMPTrump ain’t losing Georgia.
Cook it. -
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TRUMP
The turnout point is a really good oneHouhusky said:
If Trump loses Georgia it indicates he will not have enough support nationally to win where he needs to in other statesTequilla said:As for the key states, this is how I see them:
Florida
This should be a bigger win for Trump than in 2016. Lots of evidence out there suggesting that Biden is struggling with both early vote numbers (quantity) and the aforementioned struggling with traditional dependable voting basis. There's panic movement to mobilize but it's almost assuredly too late.
Georgia/North Carolina
My gut says that these two states will get split between Trump and Biden with Trump winning Georgia and Biden winning North Carolina. If these states both go to one or the other that will be a precursor to the outcome of the race.
Ohio
This is going to go to Trump. Biden's flip flopping and lies on fracking and energy will torpedo him here.
Pennsylvania
My gut says this will end up similar to Ohio but obviously Philly will be a massive wild card here. The rioting this week resulting from the local area fatal police shooting (not talking protest, but rioting/looting) I just get the sense that the average person has fatigue from and isn't helping in flipping the state to Biden. The question I ask myself is what has materially transpired in the last 4 years to flip the state from Trump to Biden? Hard for me to come up with a compelling argument.
Michigan
This is a fascinating state to me because it was one that the pollsters got so wrong in 2016 and my gut says that they are wildly off base in 2020. The lockdown fatigue in Michigan may be as extreme as anywhere else in the country. I've heard rumors that autoworkers are less supportive of Trump as they were in 2016 ... but then you hear from I believe a congressional rep reporting out this week that the feedback she was getting was not as advantageous to the Democrats as they thought. The giant wild card here is that the Senate Race in the state has a Republican candidate in John James that I've heard a few interviews of and he comes off as being very impressive. The more successful he is the more successful Trump will be in the state. I think it's a too close to call state at this point and it's not a state the Trump must win to get over 270 IF he wins Pennsylvania. Win both Pennsylvania and Michigan and the path for Biden to win gets slimmer and requires him pulling off the Georgia/North Carolina double or flipping Arizona.
Wisconsin/Minnesota
To say Wisconsin is a toss up isn't much of a shocker. But I agree with some that have pointed out that Minnesota is closer than people want to think for a couple of reasons. First, the blowback from the George Floyd riots and the feeling that the state/local government failed to protect the community was palpable after the fact. Second, my impression of the state is that it's a situation where the Minneapolis/St Paul area drives the state (similar to how Seattle drives Washington). I think Trump's rally where the Governor/Attorney General put capacity restrictions on the gathering is just terrible PR in mobilizing people for Trump. Trump's biggest strength as a politician is making those individuals that feel like they don't have a voice believe that they have a voice with Trump. I'm fascinated at seeing the numbers coming in for Minnesota on Tuesday.
Iowa
This is probably a lean to Trump at the moment and one of the biggest "blockers" for Trump in making the path for Biden more difficult to get to 270 as the math gets much easier for Trump with Iowa in the fold (similar story if Trump gets Nevada - but I expect Biden to win there)
Arizona
There seems to be this narrative that Biden is in a good spot in Arizona. Given the trending in the Hispanic vote, I find that hard to believe. Most polling suggests its within the margin of error (possible slight lean to Trump) and we know that Trump outperforms almost all of the polling in general. The only downside I see here is a Senate race where the Republican incumbent is in trouble. However, I'd be willing to bet that the way it goes down in Arizona is that they go check/balance route and split the party vote for President/Senate.
My final call is that I see Trump winning 280-258
If Trump wins Florida >3 he has a decent shot at winning in the rustbelt , If he wins FL by >4 Trump wins easily.
Trump wont have a big enough lead in PA to overcome the philly ballotharvestingcheating
If Trump can sneak away NH or NV and the odd districts in ME and NE he can still get to 270 without MI, MN, or PA... will only need WI (50/50) and AZ (R lean)
The higher the turnout is on election day the better for Trump
I feel like there's still a few wild rides to go between now and Tuesday -
TRUMP
Frank is staring into the abyssGrundleStiltzkin said:
