Trump wins Florida easy...Cubans there moved towards him.
I just can’t get over the fraud and dead vote in the cities in the NE...
I'm saying Trump but I have a serious fear of the extent the Dems are willing to cheat. They CAN'T lose, so it's going to be absolute chaos one way or the other.
One of my more plugged in to politics lawyer buddies in Sacramento assured me that Trump is winning and that I'm succumbing to the media fear porn.
Truth be told, it's hard not to at some level, what my eyes tell me and what is being reported has never been further apart.
Biden will win the popular vote, but Trump will win the presidency again.
Looking at the margins in a lot of the "Swing states", they are a lot closer than I think a lot of people realize. I don't think Trump will take Michigan or Wisconsin this time around, but if he can carry Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, all of which are realistic expectations, he should have enough to get to 270.
To me early voting is the only wild card. And cheating but still lots of votes cast while Joe was in the basement. Even limited appearances drag Joe down
The fact that there is record early voting is meaningless. The pandemic and everyone getting a mail in ballot will cause record early voting
But for who? That conventional wisdom may be wrong this year as well.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
Love Trumps inertia
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
Pretty much
My big fear is having to come here if Biden wins
Please vote for Trump
lol
The Tug is gonna be lit interesting, either way.
I’m staying the fuck away for the month of November!
USC’s trying to do the same thing. How do you get an accurate sense of how people are planning to vote if some of them are unwilling to be honest about their intentions? You ask them about other people’s intentions. Not “Will you vote for Trump?” but “Do you think your friends and neighbors are voting for Trump?” According to USC, that type of “social-circle question” — similar to Trafalgar’s approach — shows Trump faring better than most polls indicate. And not just better, but well enough to pull another rabbit out of the hat in the electoral college next Tuesday.
From our previous research on social judgments, we learned that people seem to know their immediate social circles quite well. Their answers about the distribution of income, health status — even the relationship satisfaction of their friends, family and acquaintances — were often in the right ballpark. And when we averaged the data from their responses across a large national sample, it provided a surprisingly accurate picture of the overall population…
[I]n all five of the elections in which we tested this question, the social circle question predicted election outcomes better than traditional questions about voters’ own intentions. These five elections were the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the 2017 French Presidential election, the 2017 Dutch Parliamentary election, the 2018 Swedish Parliamentary election, and the 2018 U.S. election for House of Representatives.
In both the U.S. elections, the social-circle question predicted national and state level results better than the “own intention” question in the same polls. In fact, data from the social-circle question in 2016 accurately predicted which candidate won each state, so it predicted Trump’s electoral college victory…
When we calculate how many electoral votes each candidate could get based on state level averages of the own-intention and social-circle questions, it’s looking like an Electoral College loss for Biden. We should note that our poll was not designed for state-level predictions, and in some states we have very few participants. Even so, in 2016 it predicted that Trump would win the electoral vote.
USC is also asking people which candidate they think will win their home state and those results show an even steeper Biden electoral-college loss than the “social circle” results do. What’s especially noteworthy about this is that USC has been conducting its own daily “panel” poll on the presidential race and has had Sleepy Joe ahead the entire time — comfortably. Today they have him up 11 points nationally, indicating a Democratic bloodbath.
What they’re doing here with the “experimental” questions, in other words, is giving readers reason to believe that their own horse-race poll is wildly, embarrassingly wrong.
Maybe I'm not as dumb considering the ACB approval numbers after all.
Biden will win the popular vote, but Trump will win the presidency again.
Looking at the margins in a lot of the "Swing states", they are a lot closer than I think a lot of people realize. I don't think Trump will take Michigan or Wisconsin this time around, but if he can carry Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, all of which are realistic expectations, he should have enough to get to 270.
If Trump doesn't pick up one of Michigan and Wisconsin he has to win Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Comments
One of my more plugged in to politics lawyer buddies in Sacramento assured me that Trump is winning and that I'm succumbing to the media fear porn.
Truth be told, it's hard not to at some level, what my eyes tell me and what is being reported has never been further apart.
Looking at the margins in a lot of the "Swing states", they are a lot closer than I think a lot of people realize.
I don't think Trump will take Michigan or Wisconsin this time around, but if he can carry Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, all of which are realistic expectations, he should have enough to get to 270.
The fact that there is record early voting is meaningless. The pandemic and everyone getting a mail in ballot will cause record early voting
But for who? That conventional wisdom may be wrong this year as well.
Not sure if Trump will be able to overcome the racist white woman firewall Biden and the democrats have erected.
litinteresting, either way.edit, as a gay man, I can see how you were confused.
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/10/26/usc-data-experimental-polling-questions-points-another-trump-upset-next-week/
[I]n all five of the elections in which we tested this question, the social circle question predicted election outcomes better than traditional questions about voters’ own intentions. These five elections were the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the 2017 French Presidential election, the 2017 Dutch Parliamentary election, the 2018 Swedish Parliamentary election, and the 2018 U.S. election for House of Representatives.
In both the U.S. elections, the social-circle question predicted national and state level results better than the “own intention” question in the same polls. In fact, data from the social-circle question in 2016 accurately predicted which candidate won each state, so it predicted Trump’s electoral college victory…
When we calculate how many electoral votes each candidate could get based on state level averages of the own-intention and social-circle questions, it’s looking like an Electoral College loss for Biden. We should note that our poll was not designed for state-level predictions, and in some states we have very few participants. Even so, in 2016 it predicted that Trump would win the electoral vote.
USC is also asking people which candidate they think will win their home state and those results show an even steeper Biden electoral-college loss than the “social circle” results do. What’s especially noteworthy about this is that USC has been conducting its own daily “panel” poll on the presidential race and has had Sleepy Joe ahead the entire time — comfortably. Today they have him up 11 points nationally, indicating a Democratic bloodbath.
What they’re doing here with the “experimental” questions, in other words, is giving readers reason to believe that their own horse-race poll is wildly, embarrassingly wrong.
Maybe I'm not as dumb considering the ACB approval numbers after all.
In Texas he STFU