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ELECTION 2020 POLE
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PGOS
The Tug is gonna bedflea said:
lolRaceBannon said:
Pretty muchSwaye said:
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.RaceBannon said:
Love Trumps inertiaSwaye said:I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
My big fear is having to come here if Biden wins
Please vote for Trumplitinteresting, either way. -
PGOS
I wasn’t (and I didn’t vote for The Donald either), just thought she’d win.GrundleStiltzkin said:
#IMWITHHERDoog_de_Jour said:I was so sure Hillary was going to win in 2016. Any political prognostication on my part is worthless.
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HER == YOUDoog_de_Jour said:
I wasn’t (and I didn’t vote for The Donald either), just thought she’d win.GrundleStiltzkin said:
#IMWITHHERDoog_de_Jour said:I was so sure Hillary was going to win in 2016. Any political prognostication on my part is worthless.
edit, as a gay man, I can see how you were confused. -
PGOS
I’m staying the fuck away for the month of November!GrundleStiltzkin said:
The Tug is gonna bedflea said:
lolRaceBannon said:
Pretty muchSwaye said:
He's like a machine at the end. Biden is on life support drooling into a cup somewhere out of sight.RaceBannon said:
Love Trumps inertiaSwaye said:I know all the poles and all the media and everyone in the world thinks Biden will win, which makes me wonder why Trump keeps drawing thousands in the rain, and Biden can't fill a backyard in the suburbs. So I am going with Trump, because my eyes tell me something all the poles and media don't. His supporters love him. NOGAF about Biden.
I know ALL the "evidence" says Biden, and my rational mind says Biden, but my eyes just keep telling me this massive enthusiasm gap can't be made up.
My big fear is having to come here if Biden wins
Please vote for Trumplitinteresting, either way. -
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TRUMPwhat I am hearing is Trump has the gay man-nah vote sewed up
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PGOSMissed this a couple days ago.
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/10/26/usc-data-experimental-polling-questions-points-another-trump-upset-next-week/USC’s trying to do the same thing. How do you get an accurate sense of how people are planning to vote if some of them are unwilling to be honest about their intentions? You ask them about other people’s intentions. Not “Will you vote for Trump?” but “Do you think your friends and neighbors are voting for Trump?” According to USC, that type of “social-circle question” — similar to Trafalgar’s approach — shows Trump faring better than most polls indicate. And not just better, but well enough to pull another rabbit out of the hat in the electoral college next Tuesday.From our previous research on social judgments, we learned that people seem to know their immediate social circles quite well. Their answers about the distribution of income, health status — even the relationship satisfaction of their friends, family and acquaintances — were often in the right ballpark. And when we averaged the data from their responses across a large national sample, it provided a surprisingly accurate picture of the overall population…
[I]n all five of the elections in which we tested this question, the social circle question predicted election outcomes better than traditional questions about voters’ own intentions. These five elections were the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the 2017 French Presidential election, the 2017 Dutch Parliamentary election, the 2018 Swedish Parliamentary election, and the 2018 U.S. election for House of Representatives.
In both the U.S. elections, the social-circle question predicted national and state level results better than the “own intention” question in the same polls. In fact, data from the social-circle question in 2016 accurately predicted which candidate won each state, so it predicted Trump’s electoral college victory…
When we calculate how many electoral votes each candidate could get based on state level averages of the own-intention and social-circle questions, it’s looking like an Electoral College loss for Biden. We should note that our poll was not designed for state-level predictions, and in some states we have very few participants. Even so, in 2016 it predicted that Trump would win the electoral vote.
USC is also asking people which candidate they think will win their home state and those results show an even steeper Biden electoral-college loss than the “social circle” results do. What’s especially noteworthy about this is that USC has been conducting its own daily “panel” poll on the presidential race and has had Sleepy Joe ahead the entire time — comfortably. Today they have him up 11 points nationally, indicating a Democratic bloodbath.
What they’re doing here with the “experimental” questions, in other words, is giving readers reason to believe that their own horse-race poll is wildly, embarrassingly wrong.
Maybe I'm not as dumb considering the ACB approval numbers after all. -
TRUMP“Quid Pro Joe! Quid Pro Joe! Quid Pro Joe!
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TRUMP
In blue states Biden gets his pointer finger out and tries to be tough...GrundleStiltzkin said:
In Texas he STFU -
BIDEN
If Trump doesn't pick up one of Michigan and Wisconsin he has to win Pennsylvania and North Carolina.WillyRBeek said:Biden will win the popular vote, but Trump will win the presidency again.
Looking at the margins in a lot of the "Swing states", they are a lot closer than I think a lot of people realize.
I don't think Trump will take Michigan or Wisconsin this time around, but if he can carry Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, all of which are realistic expectations, he should have enough to get to 270. -
PGOShttps://hotair.com/archives/john-s-2/2020/10/29/michael-moore-dont-believe-polls/Michael Moore famously predicted Trump’s win in 2016. Today he appeared on the Hill’s show Rising and warned that the presidential race could be closer than it appears, especially in battleground states: “Trump has tightened virtually every one of these swing states to the point where—what are they saying this morning…Biden’s 5 points ahead in Wisconsin, maybe 3 points ahead in Florida, 2 points ahead in Arizona.”
“Listen, don’t believe these polls, first of all, and second of all the Trump vote is always being undercounted,” Moore said. He went on to suggest that when pollsters call Trump voters they are not likely to get the truth out of them. Moore admitted his opinion was not scientific but based on his own instincts, “Whatever they’re saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half right now in your head. Cut it in half and now you’re within the four point margin of error.” “That’s how close this is,” he added.
Moore pointed out that in a recent trip to Michigan Trump held a rally in one of the counties Hillary won in 2016, with thousands of people showing up. He said he doesn’t know who is going to win the election next week but said, “I wake up every morning with the assumption that Trump believes he’s going to win and that’s good enough for me.” He added, “He thinks he’s going to win and I know he’s an evil genius and he’s smarter than all of us.”
Moore went on to say that he wasn’t simply saying this as an “exercise” to keep Democrats on their toes. “He’s already done it,” he said, referring to 2016. But later in the interview he said he could make the argument that this election was about to be “a massive tsunami” in favor of Biden. -
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TRUMPI'm watching a recording of a prime time show from last night and Trump is buying prime time ads in LA.
30 points down. Allegedly
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I'd better get to the weed shop before Tuesday.
And avoid the sativa strains. -
PGOS
Speaking of which, Term 2 Trump should move on federal weed decriminalization.dflea said:I'd better get to the weed shop before Tuesday.
And avoid the sativa strains. -
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PGOSQueerie for elections guysm: Are states already tabulating results in secret?
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BIDENI fucked up and clicked the wrong radio button. If Trump loses, it’s my fault. I had him in a blowout in the first pole, and I stand by that. All the stats coming out tell me Biden is on life support, as do the videos from their respective rallies.
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TRUMP
That's cocksure he's going to win - now he's running it up.RaceBannon said:I'm watching a recording of a prime time show from last night and Trump is buying prime time ads in LA.
30 points down. Allegedly
Bobby Bowden style.
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TRUMP
I’m all for it, go for 100 points gotta get those BCS popular vote style points so the electoral college trolls stay home.PurpleThrobber said:
That's cocksure he's going to win - now he's running it up.RaceBannon said:I'm watching a recording of a prime time show from last night and Trump is buying prime time ads in LA.
30 points down. Allegedly
Bobby Bowden style. -
TRUMPPoasted in another thread but Biden is running depressing Covid ads on Portland local TV and a few Trump positive ads are now in the mix.
Quite the contrast. -
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PGOShttps://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/10/30/say-whats-biden-minnesota-today/Minnesota? Four days before an election? In perhaps the strongest sign that this state has become a battleground, both presidential candidates will make appearances today — despite the state’s record streak as a Democratic stronghold going back to 1976:President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden will hold competing Minnesota rallies Friday as the race for the White House intensifies in what has become a potential battleground state in Tuesday’s election.
Biden’s campaign announced Thursday that he would hold a drive-in car rally in St. Paul at 3:45 p.m., just ahead of a previously scheduled Trump rally at 5 p.m. in the Rochester area.
The Biden event seemed designed to limit crowding and close personal contact out of concern for the pandemic. The details of Trump’s Rochester-area rally shifted Thursday after state officials asked the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee to produce a COVID-19 preparedness plan.
Trump and Mike Pence have been in and out of Minnesota several times over the last few months. For Biden, this looks like a late addition to his focus:The Friday night rally will be Trump’s fourth campaign visit to the state this year, following previous rallies in Mankato, Bemidji and Duluth.
The Twin Cities stop will be Biden’s second visit to the state since winning the Democratic nomination in August. The former vice president toured a labor union training center outside Duluth and greeted voters in the city’s Canal Park district on the first day of early voting in mid-September.But Biden has only made specific and limited personal appearances, and only where necessary — Florida, Pennsylvania, plus an attempt to expand the map in Arizona and Georgia. Why Minnesota? Apparently, Trump’s not the only one who thinks the state is in play.
The Star Tribune notices it, too:The Trump campaign started pushing resources into Minnesota early in the presidential cycle, building out a campaign infrastructure the likes of which Minnesota Republicans said they have not seen here for years, if ever. The Biden campaign was slower to invest in Minnesota as he worked to lock up the Democratic nomination, but recent months have seen his campaign making up lost ground.
The Biden campaign isn’t doing much “investment” except in call centers and advertising. They have flooded the zone with the latter, but that’s been the case since the general election started. Call centers won’t do much good without a ground game to inform it, which the Biden campaign has completely eschewed. They’re playing catch-up now, and that also indicates that they think Biden’s position in Minnesota is in danger. -
TRUMP@GrundleStiltzkin I am relying on you to get the photos of the crowds at the competing rallies from the Twatters for me. TYFYS
These rallies should be a good indicator of enthusiasm. MN is ground zero for the BLM movement and is as blue as blue can get. If Trump doubles him on crowd size there, that says something, to me anyway. Trump may not win MN, but to even be competitive spells doom for Joe in other parts of the Midwest. -
PGOS
I still don’t think rally size is a strong indicator. If you recall, we are in the grippes of a GLOBAL PANDEMIC.Swaye said:@GrundleStiltzkin I am relying on you to get the photos of the crowds at the competing rallies from the Twatters for me. TYFYS
These rallies should be a good indicator of enthusiasm. MN is ground zero for the BLM movement and is as blue as blue can get. If Trump doubles him on crowd size there, that says something, to me anyway. Trump may not win MN, but to even be competitive spells doom for Joe in other parts of the Midwest. -
TRUMPGrundleStiltzkin said:
I still don’t think rally size is a strong indicator. If you recall, we are in the grippes of a GLOBAL PANDEMIC.Swaye said:@GrundleStiltzkin I am relying on you to get the photos of the crowds at the competing rallies from the Twatters for me. TYFYS
These rallies should be a good indicator of enthusiasm. MN is ground zero for the BLM movement and is as blue as blue can get. If Trump doubles him on crowd size there, that says something, to me anyway. Trump may not win MN, but to even be competitive spells doom for Joe in other parts of the Midwest.
Still gonna needs those twats please. -
PGOShttps://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/10/30/politico-florida-dems-hit-panic-button-miami-dade-turnout/Gee, maybe Joe Biden should have chosen a warm-weather state to kick off his weekend. While he plays defense in Minnesota, his party has begun to panic over turnout numbers in Florida. Democrats need to run up the score in Miami-Dade to have any hope of winning the state’s 29 Electoral College votes, and so far the Biden campaign’s turnout isn’t even keeping up with Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 effort:Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.
No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.Allahpundit ran through the polling in Florida yesterday, most of which indicated that Biden was doing relatively well, despite worries over Latino voters. Turnout prospects looked good too. So what’s the problem? Turnout among specific Democratic target groups has fallen off significantly — and Democrats think they know why:One particular area of concern is the relative share of ballots cast by young voters of color and less-reliable Democratic voters. Part of the problem, according to interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials and operatives, is the Biden campaign‘s decision to discourage field staff from knocking on doors during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting — and funding — a return to door-to-door canvassing.
“We did not get the kind of funding for different vendors who would do that type of work until late in the campaign,” said Rep. Frederica Wilson, a party institution who represents Miami’s heavily Black congressional district.GRIM
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TRUMPGOTV and all that, but people in Philly say Simmons lives in New Jersey and has since 2019.
