Study Suggests Oregon is Doomed for a Downturn with Helfrich

Jave

Muttzen said:

Here's something I made for Oregon. On the top are the QB's for each year, the bottom are the coaches. Green is team recruiting ranking for the arriving class according to Rivals.



Here's my prediction:


How did I make the prediction?

Most people agree on a couple of things
1) Chip was an excellent coach
2) Mariota is an excellent college QB.

There is a dropoff in PPG between Chip's last year and Helf's 2 years. The system is still very similar.
I assumed Mariota did not develop much (influence stayed about even. Assuming that the uptick in points per game Chip's last year is due to Mariota. Also assuming that the dropoff post chip was due to losing his influence (could be due to roster turnover too, but that happens every year).

So, I simply took the rise in points by adding Mariota and subtracted it from the current points. Most of the additional assumptions I would make would make Chip seem like a better coach, so I think this is a good middle ground. This scoring amount would likely amount to a 7-2 or 6-3 in conference finish. Sounds reasonable to me.

WTF is this retarded graph anyway? Your trying to show how Oregon has declined under Helfrich 12 days before he plays for the national championship? Seriously?

Then you end it with your prediction of a "7-2 or 6-3 in conference finish". Only he finished 8-1, and so far, 13-1 overall last I checked Oregon fucked the defending national champions right in the pussy 59-20 and is on his way to Dallas to play for the national championship. So I'd say Helfrich is doing ok for his second year coaching?

SO tell me, how is that Peterson hire working out for ya? After all, Peterson>>>>>>Helfrich right?

Muttzen

Jave said:

Muttzen said:

Here's something I made for Oregon. On the top are the QB's for each year, the bottom are the coaches. Green is team recruiting ranking for the arriving class according to Rivals.



Here's my prediction:


How did I make the prediction?

Most people agree on a couple of things
1) Chip was an excellent coach
2) Mariota is an excellent college QB.

There is a dropoff in PPG between Chip's last year and Helf's 2 years. The system is still very similar.
I assumed Mariota did not develop much (influence stayed about even. Assuming that the uptick in points per game Chip's last year is due to Mariota. Also assuming that the dropoff post chip was due to losing his influence (could be due to roster turnover too, but that happens every year).

So, I simply took the rise in points by adding Mariota and subtracted it from the current points. Most of the additional assumptions I would make would make Chip seem like a better coach, so I think this is a good middle ground. This scoring amount would likely amount to a 7-2 or 6-3 in conference finish. Sounds reasonable to me.

WTF is this retarded graph anyway? Your trying to show how Oregon has declined under Helfrich 12 days before he plays for the national championship? Seriously?

Sold, Heil Helfrich!

Muttzen

Jave said:

Muttzen said:

Here's something I made for Oregon. On the top are the QB's for each year, the bottom are the coaches. Green is team recruiting ranking for the arriving class according to Rivals.



Here's my prediction:


How did I make the prediction?

Most people agree on a couple of things
1) Chip was an excellent coach
2) Mariota is an excellent college QB.

There is a dropoff in PPG between Chip's last year and Helf's 2 years. The system is still very similar.
I assumed Mariota did not develop much (influence stayed about even. Assuming that the uptick in points per game Chip's last year is due to Mariota. Also assuming that the dropoff post chip was due to losing his influence (could be due to roster turnover too, but that happens every year).

So, I simply took the rise in points by adding Mariota and subtracted it from the current points. Most of the additional assumptions I would make would make Chip seem like a better coach, so I think this is a good middle ground. This scoring amount would likely amount to a 7-2 or 6-3 in conference finish. Sounds reasonable to me.

WTF is this retarded graph anyway? Your trying to show how Oregon has declined under Helfrich 12 days before he plays for the national championship? Seriously?

Then you end it with your prediction of a "7-2 or 6-3 in conference finish". Only he finished 8-1, and so far, 13-1 overall last I checked Oregon fucked the defending national champions right in the pussy 59-20 and is on his way to Dallas to play for the national championship. So I'd say Helfrich is doing ok for his second year coaching?

There's more to it than that, I personally would predict a 8-1 conference finish or 7-2 as most likely. This was just a quick excel handhackjob. To do a thorough job with predicting future standings is more complicated than anything I can whip up myself. And even if you do a "good" job, you might still be totally wrong.

Fire_Marshall_Bill

HeretoBeatmyChest said:

For what its worth if Helf follows what I expect his record would be something like this the next 4 years:

11-2
10-3
9-5
8-5

I don't think its an extreme view to say he will regress. Fair to disagree but you can't paint it as extreme given the strong history behind these types of hires.

It's very hard to stay on top even with proven successful coaches. It would have been interesting to see if Carroll and Harbaugh could have sustained the top ten seasons. My guess is no. As a Husky and Seahawk fan I'm glad they ended up where they did though.

dtd

"We included a #1 SRS rating as winning a national championship."

ho-lee fuck

RaceBannon

Carroll could have because it's USC

Muttzen

Jave said:

SO tell me, how is that Peterson hire working out for ya? After all, Peterson>>>>>>Helfrich right?

On this, my personal opinions are:

1) If Petersen is a good talent evaluator, we should be seeing one of his handpicked QB's start (Hyphen man, or Brownie) Myley doesn't have it.

2). We should see improvement over last year despite our losses. If Petersen is a top tier coach, we should see this.

For UW, we should be able to tell quite a bit by the first fall game (QB situation). It shouldn't be hard for Petersen to select a QB that can play better than what we saw this year if he is halfway decent. Also, if Petersen is a good coach, instilling his culture and getting his players into the program/developed should outweigh the losses.

I can't tell how good Helfrich is yet. Next year should tell a lot more when they lose Mariota (slight regression? big regression? wheels fall off the bus? even better than this year!?)

oregonblitzkrieg

There's no reason to kiss this guy's ass. Harbaugh didn't have anything to sustain. He didn't even win the PAC 12. He ran off to the NFL like a punk motherfucker before he won anything of note. And now he's fled from the NFL before winning anything of note while turning his team into a stinking mess. Currently he's raiding his former school like a punk mother fucker. Hurting the Stanford program will hurt the PAC 12. Fuck him.

Canard

oregonblitzkrieg said:

There's no reason to kiss this guy's ass. Harbaugh didn't have anything to sustain. He didn't even win the PAC 12. He ran off to the NFL like a punk motherfucker before he won anything of note. And now he's fled from the NFL before winning anything of note while turning his team into a stinking mess. Currently he's raiding his former school like a punk mother fucker. Hurting the Stanford program will hurt the PAC 12. Fuck him.

You're a dipshit.

oregonblitzkrieg

Canard said:

oregonblitzkrieg said:

There's no reason to kiss this guy's ass. Harbaugh didn't have anything to sustain. He didn't even win the PAC 12. He ran off to the NFL like a punk motherfucker before he won anything of note. And now he's fled from the NFL before winning anything of note while turning his team into a stinking mess. Currently he's raiding his former school like a punk mother fucker. Hurting the Stanford program will hurt the PAC 12. Fuck him.

You're a dipshit.

So are you.