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Study Suggests Oregon is Doomed for a Downturn with Helfrich
Comments
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The quote is usually attributed to Mark Twain although that is up to some debate. The fact remains that you can manipulate statistics in ways to fit your narrative. Which I believe was the purpose of the article.MisterEm said:Not sure I agree yet, Chest.
I tend to think Helfrich is a damn good coach.
Will happily revisit this on a later date.
OT blowhard alert....blackmamba said:"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics"
I hate that quote. Math and specifically stats are so misunderstood it's scary.
That quote is from a "wannabe" who couldn't tell the difference between a truly normalized dataset and a spreadsheet full of nonsense violating all inference and collection assumptions. Then he ran a bunch of crap paired - t or chi tests to show some null hypothesis rejected as well as his publication attempt.
The researchers and scientists that can't grasp Stats ( and believe the above quote) are either now cutting keys at Home Depot or teaching Bio/Chem/Phys 101 at Meatball State.....
This is where they come up with lame dick quotes like this after years of crying himself to sleep after his statistical prowess was embarrassed by his fellow peers.
Sincerely,
QSci superiority guy
It makes no sense to attribute a statistical analysis to the potential for coaching success. There are way too many variables to make a mathematical analysis. Thus, the article comes out looking like something that should be on the front page of dawgman.com
Great job!
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People get paid good money to analyze systems that are far more complicated.blackmamba said:
The quote is usually attributed to Mark Twain although that is up to some debate. The fact remains that you can manipulate statistics in ways to fit your narrative. Which I believe was the purpose of the article.
It makes no sense to attribute a statistical analysis to the potential for coaching success. There are way too many variables to make a mathematical analysis. Thus, the article comes out looking like something that should be on the front page of dawgman.com
Great job!
The issue that you seem to have lies with the fact that any one measure is not that robust in something with as many variables as coaching. If there were any measure that was close to 100% accurate, people wouldn't ever hire shitty coaches if they had the money to outbid other schools.
Statistics can help give you likelihoods, and its certainly more helpful than a blind guess if done right. It's very hard to do correctly. Do you include outliers or account for them? How many parameters do you include? Do your parameters reflect "real" things, or are they just an abstraction?
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Mariota is perfect for the college game, one of those once in a generation type players. I can't speak to how he will do in the NFL with his relatively thin frame and dependence on his legs for dictating how defenses play him in CFB vs. the Not For Long ranks where mobile QBs don't stay mobile for too long if they test the bigger, faster, stronger DEs, LBs, and DBs early and often.
Frankly, the changes in the college game since Dick Rod and Urban Meyer came along has made it harder for NFL execs to predict how mobile QBs' success in CFB will translate to the NFL game. The best QBs in the NFL have always been deadly accurate and only use their legs if they have to rather than relying on the HUNU read-option to create big windows....think Brady, Manning, Aaron Rodgers. Alex Smith was Meyer's QB at Utah and was the #1 pick but he's been only pretty good. Cam Newton was Malzahn's NC winning QB at Auburn and was the #1 pick but Newton has been somewhat injury prone and his performance has been erratic. Newton is basically the archetype of the new CFB offense but how will he do on the road against the Seahawks when Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, KJ Wright, and Bam Bam Kam are coming after him? But I digress...
Anyway, I don't really care about Oregon right now as we won't even beat Stanford next year if the staff doesn't figure out the QB position and the OL....not much sense in discussing if someone else's clean house will get dirty in 2015 when our house needs attention ASAP. -
Newsflash: vast majority of coaches fail. In any situation. No matter what parameters you select you're going to get the same results.
Unfortunately Oregon has many built in advantages at this point that make them an exception. Helfrich very well might suck. But at Oregon he could suck and still be successful. -
It's surprisingly hard for programs to stay on top. UW was until Oregon and USC led the charge to topple James. USC was on top with Carroll but then Carroll leaving and sanctions took them down. Stanford was briefly on top but then Harbaugh and Luck left and they haven't really been the same. Oregon is clearly on top this year but what happens with Mariota and a bunch of Kelly recruited / coached players move on?
Regardless, UW won't get back to the top of the league until we fix our own house. That starts with stability at the coaching position, at QB, and on the OL / DL. We obviously won't have turnover at HC but we'll probably have a new starting QB, 4 new starters on the OL, and an entirely new starting DL for 2015.
At least Charles is back at LG, Brostek will be taking his RS off for RG, and Tufunga and Shelton started a few games each in 2014.FremontTroll said:Newsflash: vast majority of coaches fail. In any situation. No matter what parameters you select you're going to get the same results.
Unfortunately Oregon has many built in advantages at this point that make them an exception. Helfrich very well might suck. But at Oregon he could suck and still be successful. -
This much is true: Oregon won't be this good indefinitely. At some poont the good times in Eugene will end.
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This might be the dumbest write up I've ever read. This looks like something you'd find on DawgFag. It's easy to say he'll take a step back no other place to go but down after a national title. Who fucking cares if they take a step back. A step back for Oregon is still 10 steps ahead of the Huskies. If Helfrick has red flags how many does Peterman have??
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DAMN STRAIGHT!!!111! PUMP MY GAS ACTUAL REAL LIFE DUCK!1AZDuck said:This much is true: Oregon won't be this good indefinitely. At some poont the good times in Eugene will end.
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CokeGreaterThanPepsi said:
DAMN STRAIGHT!!!111! PUMP MY GAS ACTUAL REAL LIFE DUCK!1AZDuck said:This much is true: Oregon won't be this good indefinitely. At some poont the good times in Eugene will end.
Fuck off -
For what its worth if Helf follows what I expect his record would be something like this the next 4 years:
11-2
10-3
9-5
8-5
I don't think its an extreme view to say he will regress. Fair to disagree but you can't paint it as extreme given the strong history behind these types of hires.
