Looks like I am right again
Comments
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@iDawg used to say that about me on Dawgman.com.chuck said:
All of it rubs me the wrong way. I think it's the no brainier, survival move though. It seems like some other poster named doogles said the same. That guy gets it.Doogles said:I get the Big Ten is the no brainer survival move, but something about it rubs me the wrong way.
@RaceBannon -
I think there is a big niche of players that don't want to play in the Midwest in October and November. Alot of players also aren't thinking about conferences as much as fans are. They commit and to play for coaches and schools. There's a world where the B10 isn't stealing a dramatic net difference in west coast talent because all those players from NorCal, Arizona and Washington have parents that just won't fly.
Adding SDSU covers SoCal. Add them at a reduced rate and try it for 5 years. -
Socal recruits aren't even going to notice UW playing SDSU.Canadawg said:I think there is a big niche of players that don't want to play in the Midwest in October and November. Alot of players also aren't thinking about conferences as much as fans are. They commit and to play for coaches and schools. There's a world where the B10 isn't stealing a dramatic net difference in west coast talent because all those players from NorCal, Arizona and Washington have parents that just won't fly.
Adding SDSU covers SoCal. Add them at a reduced rate and try it for 5 years. -
This is so wrong.Canadawg said:I think there is a big niche of players that don't want to play in the Midwest in October and November. Alot of players also aren't thinking about conferences as much as fans are. They commit and to play for coaches and schools. There's a world where the B10 isn't stealing a dramatic net difference in west coast talent because all those players from NorCal, Arizona and Washington have parents that just won't fly.
Adding SDSU covers SoCal. Add them at a reduced rate and try it for 5 years. -
FFS. The script is written. Cauce and Jen will fuck this up.Tequilla said:I'm always willing to take the gloves off against Gramps Race ... except when he's right
The Prime numbers this year for the NFL are disastrous ... you can come up with a number of reasons for that ranging from Amazon getting a lot of really crappy Thursday games this year combined with one of the biggest challenges of watching sports on Prime being that you can't flip around channels (something the streaming people haven't caught onto how ingrained people are with this when it comes to watching sports). For Amazon, I suspect that they are able to rationalize the deal with lower levels of infrastructure vs a network and the upsell to Prime that they are getting with new subscribers and eventually as they uptick the annual cost of Prime by $10-20/yr per subscriber.
What should be terrifying to any P10 member school with a potential Amazon deal is YoY viewership decline for what is generally considered a "must watch" weekly event in the NFL. Those % declines for the NFL will only be worse for the P10. It's really hard to rationally argue around it.
While it may be a short-term money maker for the schools involved, it's going to further erode the brand and reputation of the P12 schools. Moreover, with no tie ins to any of the major national networks, you're almost assuredly going to be out of sight and out of mind in any of the national conversation, highlights, etc.
My personal opinion is that the P10 will never sign another media rights deal ... my projections are as follows:
Big12 comes in and aggressively tries to round their conference out to 16 programs ... the Corner schools will see the Big 12 as offering comparable money and additional stability that the P10 can't offer because ...
Everybody knows that UW and Oregon are off to the Big 10 as soon as they get an invite (timing of which is TBD) ...
Assuming the Corner schools act first, could see both UW and Oregon contemplate independence for a few years until the Big10 eventually comes calling ... an added benefit by going independent is being able to sell the value of the program as a national brand (would require playing more of a national schedule - net net that's a positive for UW all the way around) ...
Corner schools leaving first will limit any noise around UW or Oregon leaving behind their in-state rivals ...
I would expect that Oregon St and Wazzu in such a scenario would look towards joining up with the Mountain West for probably all other sports but football while perhaps trying to play the independent game to buy time ...
Cal and Stanford have long-term decisions to make regarding their role in college sports and I could completely see them bowing out of the high end of football game
There's really no value in the P10 remaining as one conference as there just aren't programs and rivalries that resonate nationally with the exception of a few games ...
It all just comes down to which school(s) bail first -
chuck said:
Recruits aren't even going to notice UW playing Utah/TCU/Oregon/Wisconsin/Florida/Florida State/Miami.Canadawg said:I think there is a big niche of players that don't want to play in the Midwest in October and November. Alot of players also aren't thinking about conferences as much as fans are. They commit and to play for coaches and schools. There's a world where the B10 isn't stealing a dramatic net difference in west coast talent because all those players from NorCal, Arizona and Washington have parents that just won't fly.
Adding SDSU covers SoCal. Add them at a reduced rate and try it for 5 years.
Not all teams can be blue bloods, some get better reputations after WW2. Thinkings a kid from SoCal cares less about a new P5 team near them over a truck stop in Indiana isnt always reality
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SDSU brings nothing to the table. No one cares about San Diego, not even people that live there. Definitely not people in LACanadawg said:I think there is a big niche of players that don't want to play in the Midwest in October and November. Alot of players also aren't thinking about conferences as much as fans are. They commit and to play for coaches and schools. There's a world where the B10 isn't stealing a dramatic net difference in west coast talent because all those players from NorCal, Arizona and Washington have parents that just won't fly.
Adding SDSU covers SoCal. Add them at a reduced rate and try it for 5 years.
You're right though that a lot of West Coast talent will still want to stay on the West Coast.
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If Clemson, FSU, and Miami join the SEC everything is fucked and UW should sell its soul to get into the B1G.chuck said:T
It's not just the immediate $ payoff that matters. All of the blue bloods are consolidating into two super conferences. If UW wants to be one, they have to join. The west is already bleeding talent and relevance eastward. Imagine how bad that's going to be when the two relevant LA schools leave the west as well?Canadawg said:I just feel like money has diminished return. The most successful teams aren't necessarily the richest. Don't get me wrong you need a certain level but once you have that then putting yourself at a competitive disadvantage for more money seems dumb.
As far as where the rights go I just want whatever makes it easiest to access north of the border. I hope Kliavkoff keeps me in mind
I don't want to fight for tallest midget status with an outside shot at upsetting someone in the playoffs with our scrappy band of 3* recruits and portal castoffs from the super leagues. That sounds pretty lame.
But that hasn't happened yet, and the ACC has more titles recently than the B1G does.
If the ACC survives, so does the PAC. We are still a long ways off from two super conferences.
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This scenario is the central assumption for me. I'm not sure I'd change my mind if it were taken away but I'd reevaluate.PostGameOrangeSlices said:
If Clemson, FSU, and Miami join the SEC everything is fucked and UW should sell its soul to get into the B1G.chuck said:T
It's not just the immediate $ payoff that matters. All of the blue bloods are consolidating into two super conferences. If UW wants to be one, they have to join. The west is already bleeding talent and relevance eastward. Imagine how bad that's going to be when the two relevant LA schools leave the west as well?Canadawg said:I just feel like money has diminished return. The most successful teams aren't necessarily the richest. Don't get me wrong you need a certain level but once you have that then putting yourself at a competitive disadvantage for more money seems dumb.
As far as where the rights go I just want whatever makes it easiest to access north of the border. I hope Kliavkoff keeps me in mind
I don't want to fight for tallest midget status with an outside shot at upsetting someone in the playoffs with our scrappy band of 3* recruits and portal castoffs from the super leagues. That sounds pretty lame.
But that hasn't happened yet, and the ACC has more titles recently than the B1G does.
If the ACC survives, so does the PAC. We are still a long ways off from two super conferences. -
I just don't see it. Both FSU and Clemson proved they can go head to head with the SEC on the biggest stage and win natties.chuck said:
This scenario is the central assumption for me. I'm not sure I'd change my mind if it were taken away but I'd reevaluate.PostGameOrangeSlices said:
If Clemson, FSU, and Miami join the SEC everything is fucked and UW should sell its soul to get into the B1G.chuck said:T
It's not just the immediate $ payoff that matters. All of the blue bloods are consolidating into two super conferences. If UW wants to be one, they have to join. The west is already bleeding talent and relevance eastward. Imagine how bad that's going to be when the two relevant LA schools leave the west as well?Canadawg said:I just feel like money has diminished return. The most successful teams aren't necessarily the richest. Don't get me wrong you need a certain level but once you have that then putting yourself at a competitive disadvantage for more money seems dumb.
As far as where the rights go I just want whatever makes it easiest to access north of the border. I hope Kliavkoff keeps me in mind
I don't want to fight for tallest midget status with an outside shot at upsetting someone in the playoffs with our scrappy band of 3* recruits and portal castoffs from the super leagues. That sounds pretty lame.
But that hasn't happened yet, and the ACC has more titles recently than the B1G does.
If the ACC survives, so does the PAC. We are still a long ways off from two super conferences.
Why would they give up an easier path to consistent playoffs for a few extra millions? I don't think they will
