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538 now gives trump a 1 in 3 shot to win

dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
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edited November 2016 in Tug Tavern
http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.
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    PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 41,941
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    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they havelike always.

    IRYK
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    TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
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    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
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    dncdnc Member Posts: 56,614
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    edited November 2016
    It's gonna be closer to 2/5 or coin flip by election day, baring the media dropping another Trump bomb.

    But let's be real, somebody somewhere is sitting on video of Trump saying the N word or faggot (abundance? DDY??) and is waiting for just the right moment (or the right price) to release it.

    Gonna be an interesting five days.
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    greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,280
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    edited November 2016
    I think another appeal to Trump is to watch the heads explode on CNN, ABC, CBS, and MSNBC, if Trump actually wins. The looks on Don Lemon, Anderson Cooper, Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow, and George Stephanonopoupoulos.... would be hilarious.
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    SledogSledog Member Posts: 31,022
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    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    That anyone would vote for a candidate with such blatant disregard for our laws, ethics and morals is the scary part. She'll be impeached and jailed and that idiot Kane would be president.
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    GrundleStiltzkinGrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,481
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    Standard Supporter
    greenblood said:

    I think another appeal to Trump is to watch the heads explode on CNN, ABC, CBS, and MSNBC, if Trump actually wins. The looks on Don Lemon, Anderson Cooper, Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow, and George Stephanonopoupoulos.... would be hilarious.

    They'd turn the tables on election result disputes fast than a cheap Chinese family-style lazy susan.

    image
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    TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
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    Sledog said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    That anyone would vote for a candidate with such blatant disregard for our laws, ethics and morals is the scary part. She'll be impeached and jailed and that idiot Kane would be president.
    I thought you liked Trump?
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    DonLemonPartyDonLemonParty Member Posts: 155
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    edited November 2016
    greenblood said:

    I think another appeal to Trump is to watch the heads explode on CNN, ABC, CBS, and MSNBC, if Trump actually wins. The looks on Don Lemon, Anderson Cooper, Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow, and George Stephanonopoupoulos.... would be hilarious.

    FREE PUBES!







    image
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    greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,280
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    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    Sledog said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    That anyone would vote for a candidate with such blatant disregard for our laws, ethics and morals is the scary part. She'll be impeached and jailed and that idiot Kane would be president.
    I thought you liked Trump?
    On ethics and morals you are pretty much right, but only one candidate is in the middle of a criminal investigation.

    On pure wit alone, I had to awesome it.
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    DugtheDoogDugtheDoog Member Posts: 3,180
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    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
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    TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
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    DonLemonParty said:

    greenblood said:

    I think another appeal to Trump is to watch the heads explode on CNN, ABC, CBS, and MSNBC, if Trump actually wins. The looks on Don Lemon, Anderson Cooper, Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow, and George Stephanonopoupoulos.... would be hilarious.

    FREE PUBES!







    image
    That was the first of many horrible moments in 2016.
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    greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,280
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    edited November 2016
    DugtheDoog said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
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    TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
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    DugtheDoog said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Hi.

    The general electorate is much different than the Republican primary electorate.

    Trump doesn't appeal to enough women or minorities to win. His only hope is that Hillary turns off enough of her base to lose.

    The other Republicans could have eaten into her base and won more moderates.

    The fact that the Republican party nominated a candidate that is so badly misaligned with the country as a whole is a bad sign for the party's future.
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    PurpleJPurpleJ Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 36,576
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    Boobs seems worried.
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    TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
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    PurpleJ said:

    Boobs seems worried.

    Nah. If Hillary Lockie loses, she deserves it.
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    greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,280
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    edited November 2016
    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Hi.

    The general electorate is much different than the Republican primary electorate.

    Trump doesn't appeal to enough women or minorities to win. His only hope is that Hillary turns off enough of her base to lose.

    The other Republicans could have eaten into her base and won more moderates.

    The fact that the Republican party nominated a candidate that is so badly misaligned with the country as a whole is a bad sign for the party's future.
    I don't think Cruz would have had appeal.

    I would add Rubio to the mix. He'd be a big boost in Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

    I think Rubio or Kasich would have more appeal. The other 15 candidates no.

    Christie- lmao

    Fiorina- Not a chance

    Cruz- Would scare away moderates

    Bush- Would be spending 3/4 of the election defending what his brother did.

    Paul- I don't know

    Everybody else had no chance from the beginning
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