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538 now gives trump a 1 in 3 shot to win

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Comments

  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,691

    The Hillary fan boys here were cheering last July when the DOJ didn't pursue. It was the best outcome for Trump.

    It pissed off the FBI and Comey had to go forward now with all the evidence there is.

    Not to mention it was another data point in "the system is rigged" argument, which benefits the non establishment candidate.
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 105,459 Founders Club
    dhdawg said:

    The Hillary fan boys here were cheering last July when the DOJ didn't pursue. It was the best outcome for Trump.

    It pissed off the FBI and Comey had to go forward now with all the evidence there is.

    yes. at that time it would have still given them a chance to nominate someone else. she didn't have enough pledged delegates

    Exactly. The party sold their soul to her long ago. For no apparent reason
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    dnc said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    “There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt. What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician,” said a former FBI official.

    They're right, you know
    Agree, but it's not the role of the FBI to campaign on behalf of Trump.

    That's some SS level shit.
    Look at Mr losers blame the refs now
    Touche














    Douche
  • SoutherndawgSoutherndawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,295 Founders Club

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Hi.

    The general electorate is much different than the Republican primary electorate.

    Trump doesn't appeal to enough women or minorities to win. His only hope is that Hillary turns off enough of her base to lose.

    The other Republicans could have eaten into her base and won more moderates.

    The fact that the Republican party nominated a candidate that is so badly misaligned with the country as a whole is a bad sign for the party's future.
    I don't think Cruz would have had appeal.

    I would add Rubio to the mix. He'd be a big boost in Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

    I think Rubio or Kasich would have more appeal. The other 15 candidates no.

    Christie- lmao

    Fiorina- Not a chance

    Cruz- Would scare away moderates

    Bush- Would be spending 3/4 of the election defending what his brother did.

    Paul- I don't know

    Everybody else had no chance from the beginning
    Had the opportunity to meet Rubio at a local business council meeting. He's very impressive in person, dialed in, very smart, understands the proper role of government and the effect excessive regulation has on the economy to a much greater degree than I expected. He's very personable as well and knows how to use self deprecation to great effect. He will retain his senate seat, and will resurface as a presidential candidate in the not too distant future. We're about to do a helluva lot worse regardless of how this election goes. Damn shame IMO.
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,655 Standard Supporter

    dhdawg said:

    Bernie Sanders would be up by 10+ right now. He would have gotten all of the liberal base plus a lot of cross over from the white trash as ozone calls them.
    But the democratic party had to force a corrupt insider involved in approximately 818,181 scandals down everyone's throats while calling anyone that didn't like her a mysoginist

    But the difference with Ozone...

    By voting for Bernie instead of Trump, he'd be calling them the less fortunate not white trash.
    If you're voting for free shit from the government YOU are ________ (insert race) trash!
  • ThomasFremontThomasFremont Member Posts: 13,325
    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.
  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,382

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    You might be right on everything else, but jeb wouldn't beat Hillary.
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,655 Standard Supporter

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Liberals hate guns. Bad strategy for revolution.
  • ThomasFremontThomasFremont Member Posts: 13,325
    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Liberals hate guns. Bad strategy for revolution.
    Liberals are the ones that move to Canada, conservatives are the ones that BRB, JO over an armed revolution.

    I'd say try to keep up, but I know you aren't capable.
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,655 Standard Supporter

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
  • ThomasFremontThomasFremont Member Posts: 13,325
    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
    Thanks for proving my poont.
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,655 Standard Supporter

    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
    Thanks for proving my poont.
    The point was liberals AKA socialists AKA communists are not trustworthy.

    Will all of them really move to Canada? I don't think Canada can afford that much free shit.

    I have something to look forward to.
  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    Sledog said:

    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
    Thanks for proving my poont.
    The point was liberals AKA socialists AKA communists are not trustworthy.

    Will all of them really move to Canada? I don't think Canada can afford that much free shit.

    I have something to look forward to.
    Liberals like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and Mitt Romney pay the bills.

    HTH
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,655 Standard Supporter
    2001400ex said:

    Sledog said:

    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
    Thanks for proving my poont.
    The point was liberals AKA socialists AKA communists are not trustworthy.

    Will all of them really move to Canada? I don't think Canada can afford that much free shit.

    I have something to look forward to.
    Liberals like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and Mitt Romney pay the bills.

    HTH
    I hope the door hits them, where the good lord split them. Hopefully they'll remember to take all the rest of the idiot liberals with them. GTFOOMC!

  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    Sledog said:

    2001400ex said:

    Sledog said:

    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
    Thanks for proving my poont.
    The point was liberals AKA socialists AKA communists are not trustworthy.

    Will all of them really move to Canada? I don't think Canada can afford that much free shit.

    I have something to look forward to.
    Liberals like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and Mitt Romney pay the bills.

    HTH
    I hope the door hits them, where the good lord split them. Hopefully they'll remember to take all the rest of the idiot liberals with them. GTFOOMC!

    Troomps hate winners
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,655 Standard Supporter

    Sledog said:

    2001400ex said:

    Sledog said:

    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
    Thanks for proving my poont.
    The point was liberals AKA socialists AKA communists are not trustworthy.

    Will all of them really move to Canada? I don't think Canada can afford that much free shit.

    I have something to look forward to.
    Liberals like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and Mitt Romney pay the bills.

    HTH
    I hope the door hits them, where the good lord split them. Hopefully they'll remember to take all the rest of the idiot liberals with them. GTFOOMC!

    Troomps hate winners
    No we hate people that hate our country and want to make it a socialist paradise ruled with an iron fist. Our forefathers shot them. Didn't work out so well for King George 3.
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,655 Standard Supporter
    dflea said:

    Sledog said:

    2001400ex said:

    Sledog said:

    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
    Thanks for proving my poont.
    The point was liberals AKA socialists AKA communists are not trustworthy.

    Will all of them really move to Canada? I don't think Canada can afford that much free shit.

    I have something to look forward to.
    Liberals like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and Mitt Romney pay the bills.

    HTH
    I hope the door hits them, where the good lord split them. Hopefully they'll remember to take all the rest of the idiot liberals with them. GTFOOMC!

    You'd make them leave if you weren't such a fucking pussy.
    I've made people leave but they weren't on the Internet. Need help packing?
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    Sledog said:

    Sledog said:

    2001400ex said:

    Sledog said:

    Sledog said:

    Bernie would destroy Trump.

    Kasich/Rubio/Jeb would beat Hillary.

    Somehow we? ended up with 2 terrible general election candidates.

    Can't wait for the exodus to Canada or the armed revolution when Trump or Hillary wins.

    Here's you socialist stalwart.
    Thanks for proving my poont.
    The point was liberals AKA socialists AKA communists are not trustworthy.

    Will all of them really move to Canada? I don't think Canada can afford that much free shit.

    I have something to look forward to.
    Liberals like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and Mitt Romney pay the bills.

    HTH
    I hope the door hits them, where the good lord split them. Hopefully they'll remember to take all the rest of the idiot liberals with them. GTFOOMC!

    Troomps hate winners
    No we hate people that hate our country and want to make it a socialist paradise ruled with an iron fist. Our forefathers shot them. Didn't work out so well for King George 3.
    yep. the only guy in the entire campaign outside of Rand Paul who argued against the patriot act wants to "rule with an iron fist."
    Your ignorance is stunning
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