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538 now gives trump a 1 in 3 shot to win

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  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    greenblood said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
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  • dhdawg
    dhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    Paul and maybe Kasich would have beaten her. Not sure about the rest.

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  • dhdawg
    dhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    PurpleJ said:

    Obama just needs more time to get his own guys into the FBI.

    This is very true. He choose to put a Republican in charge when he didn't need to. This is partially on him. It's mostly on hillary for opening the door up for the fbi to do this though
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  • dhdawg
    dhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    Bernie Sanders would be up by 10+ right now. He would have gotten all of the liberal base plus a lot of cross over from the white trash as ozone calls them.
    But the democratic party had to force a corrupt insider involved in approximately 818,181 scandals down everyone's throats while calling anyone that didn't like her a mysoginist
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  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    greenblood said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    greenblood said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
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  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,566
    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    greenblood said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    greenblood said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    If true, it makes me wonder what else will be leaked between now and Tuesday.
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  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    greenblood said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    greenblood said:

    DugtheDoog said:

    TierbsHsotBoobs said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    “There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt. What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician,” said a former FBI official.

    They're right, you know
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