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538 now gives trump a 1 in 3 shot to win

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Comments

  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    Paul and maybe Kasich would have beaten her. Not sure about the rest.

  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    PurpleJ said:

    Obama just needs more time to get his own guys into the FBI.

    This is very true. He choose to put a Republican in charge when he didn't need to. This is partially on him. It's mostly on hillary for opening the door up for the fbi to do this though
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    Bernie Sanders would be up by 10+ right now. He would have gotten all of the liberal base plus a lot of cross over from the white trash as ozone calls them.
    But the democratic party had to force a corrupt insider involved in approximately 818,181 scandals down everyone's throats while calling anyone that didn't like her a mysoginist
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,382

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    If true, it makes me wonder what else will be leaked between now and Tuesday.
  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,691

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    “There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt. What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician,” said a former FBI official.

    They're right, you know
  • PurpleJPurpleJ Member Posts: 37,212 Founders Club
    Trump > Hillary > Bernie

    Simple fact.
  • AZDuckAZDuck Member Posts: 15,381

    I think another appeal to Trump is to watch the world explode .

    image

    image

  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    dnc said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    “There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt. What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician,” said a former FBI official.

    They're right, you know
    Agree, but it's not the role of the FBI to campaign on behalf of Trump.

    That's some SS level shit.
  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,382

    dnc said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    “There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt. What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician,” said a former FBI official.

    They're right, you know
    Agree, but it's not the role of the FBI to campaign on behalf of Trump.

    That's some SS level shit.
    You have the SS FBI against the SS DOJ

    Sark>Ty
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,837
    DNC is right ... it's probably closer to a coin flip than 1 in 3 ... there will be more bombs between now and Tuesday ... but the trending IMO favors Trump.
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    disagree. Things could change but as of now he would have to win florida, which is still a toss up, and win NC, Nevada, and then upset in NH, Virginia, Penn or Colorado.
    Even if he does, if Hillary wins the 3rd EV in Maine it would be a 269-269 tie, which I guess would be a win for trump.
    It's going to be damn close, but if the election was held today she'd win
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    edited November 2016

    dnc said:

    dhdawg said:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    their model, which is usually incredibly accurate. gives Hillary a path to win if she takes Pennsylvania, Virginia, colorado, and new Hampshire. I still think she wins, but I can't see her getting more than 280 at the most.
    this is gonna be a tight, nerve-wracking election. and the democrats deserve it for nominating Hillary and running the condescending and shitty campaign that they have.

    Hillary absolutely deserves to lose.

    The problem is that the GOP nominated the one person she can beat.
    This is a terrible argument and used far too often. Trump receive more primary votes than any republican ever. And Trump basically lapped everyone else in the field. But since you say Trump is the only republican Hilary can beat, how many points ahead would Jeb be right now? And who do you think would have a bigger lead, Jeb or Lyin Ted? What about Kasich? He'd be winning in a landslide, right? Carly Fiorina would totally be outperforming Trump as wll.
    Primaries are different than a general election. However, I don't we'd be seeing these leaks if another candidate was running. Trump would out perform every primary opponent except for Kasich.

    Kasich would be up about 10 points right now. He'd carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He had more crossover appeal than Trump in a general election.
    We would see the stuff against Hillary regardless because the GOP and the FBI hate her.
    The GOP hate all Dems, and vice versa. But for the FBI to hate her, it leads me to think of the smoke and fire analogy. There's something there if the FBI is on her like white on rice.

    I also don't think the FBI's anger is towards Hillary specifically. I think it's more towards the DOJ trying to thwart their investigation, because of their relationship with the Cintons.
    I thought that too until I read this article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    “There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt. What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician,” said a former FBI official.

    They're right, you know
    Agree, but it's not the role of the FBI to campaign on behalf of Trump.

    That's some SS level shit.
    if Hillary wasn't so slimy and involved in so much bad shit they wouldn't have anything to campaign on. Same thing as the media objectively going after trump more than Hillary for all the horrible shit he's said. in both cases it's deserved
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326

    The Hillary fan boys here were cheering last July when the DOJ didn't pursue. It was the best outcome for Trump.

    It pissed off the FBI and Comey had to go forward now with all the evidence there is.

    yes. at that time it would have still given them a chance to nominate someone else. she didn't have enough pledged delegates

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