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Mariners Baby!

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  • chuckchuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,227
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes Ninth Anniversary
    Fishpo31 said:

    Bob_C said:

    Fishpo31 said:

    Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
    Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
    Four seam FB: .350
    Sinker: .349
    Cutter: .315
    Change up: .292
    Slider: .269
    Curveball: .263
    Splitter: .257

    Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.

    In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
    Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
    Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.

    The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.

    I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.

    Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.

    I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.
    I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.

    FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.

    The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.

    It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.

    Good stuff!
    Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.

    Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic.
    Fishpo31creepycoug
  • Fishpo31Fishpo31 Member Posts: 1,518
    2,500 Awesomes 1,000 Up Votes 250 Answers 1000 Comments
    edited October 11
    chuck said:

    Fishpo31 said:

    Bob_C said:

    Fishpo31 said:

    Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
    Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
    Four seam FB: .350
    Sinker: .349
    Cutter: .315
    Change up: .292
    Slider: .269
    Curveball: .263
    Splitter: .257

    Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.

    In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
    Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
    Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.

    The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.

    I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.

    Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.

    I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.
    I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.

    FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.

    The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.

    It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.

    Good stuff!
    Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.

    Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic.
    True, but pinpoint control is considered the ability to throw it to a 12" X 12" box. After that, it is throwing to the correct quadrant of the zone, up and down, in and out...i.e., if the location is down/away, don't miss in, and vise-versa. They are setting pitch plans based on past performance of the hitter, and what the catcher/pitcher see the hitter adjust to during the at-bat, and reading swings. A lot of the highlight-show HRs are double-crosses...the hitter is set up for down and away, and miss up/middle in.

    Hitters will subtly cheat to pitches, and a good catcher/pitcher will catch this, and adjust. If you go away, away, away, guys will creep up on the plate, and you bust them in. The swing-back 2 seamer is perhaps the most difficult pitch to throw consistently. Maddux had it mastered, but when he figured it out, he was throwing 86-88, with laser command. The glove-side down and away FB is the toughest pitch to hit, and throw, consistently.

    The key is where you miss, and that is dictated by the count. 0-0 and in pitcher's counts, if you miss, miss off the plate. In hitter's counts, you have to miss on the plate, or walk them. Obvious stuff, but important stuff. The previous pitch sets up the next one. An old saying that still works is, "If you want to get them out away, you've got to go in" to push them back just a smidge, and open up that spot. If you want to get them out in, get them leaning to the outside.

    Don't see it much anymore, but guys used to bait pitchers into throwing them what they want. The two guys that were most obvious, later in their career, were Dale Murphy and Dave Winfield. They both stood way off the plate, looking like they wanted to clear for the FB in. Guys would pitch them away, and they would dive in and drive it to right field, covering up the fact that they couldn't catch up to the inside FB anymore...
    creepycougMikeDamone
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,031
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes Ninth Anniversary
    Fishpo31 said:

    chuck said:

    Fishpo31 said:

    Bob_C said:

    Fishpo31 said:

    Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
    Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
    Four seam FB: .350
    Sinker: .349
    Cutter: .315
    Change up: .292
    Slider: .269
    Curveball: .263
    Splitter: .257

    Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.

    In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
    Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
    Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.

    The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.

    I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.

    Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.

    I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.
    I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.

    FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.

    The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.

    It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.

    Good stuff!
    Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.

    Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic.
    True, but pinpoint control is considered the ability to throw it to a 12" X 12" box. After that, it is throwing to the correct quadrant of the zone, up and down, in and out...i.e., if the location is down/away, don't miss in, and vise-versa. They are setting pitch plans based on past performance of the hitter, and what the catcher/pitcher see the hitter adjust to during the at-bat, and reading swings. A lot of the highlight-show HRs are double-crosses...the hitter is set up for down and away, and miss up/middle in.

    Hitters will subtly cheat to pitches, and a good catcher/pitcher will catch this, and adjust. If you go away, away, away, guys will creep up on the plate, and you bust them in. The swing-back 2 seamer is perhaps the most difficult pitch to throw consistently. Maddux had it mastered, but when he figured it out, he was throwing 86-88, with laser command. The glove-side down and away FB is the toughest pitch to hit, and throw, consistently.

    The key is where you miss, and that is dictated by the count. 0-0 and in pitcher's counts, if you miss, miss off the plate. In hitter's counts, you have to miss on the plate, or walk them. Obvious stuff, but important stuff. The previous pitch sets up the next one. An old saying that still works is, "If you want to get them out away, you've got to go in" to push them back just a smidge, and open up that spot. If you want to get them out in, get them leaning to the outside.

    Don't see it much anymore, but guys used to bait pitchers into throwing them what they want. The two guys that were most obvious, later in their career, were Dale Murphy and Dave Winfield. They both stood way off the plate, looking like they wanted to clear for the FB in. Guys would pitch them away, and they would dive in and drive it to right field, covering up the fact that they couldn't catch up to the inside FB anymore...
    I believe I will refrain from ever arguing matters relating to pitching with either of you.
    phineas
  • MelloDawgMelloDawg Member Posts: 4,582
    Standard Supporter 5,000 Awesomes Ninth Anniversary 2,500 Up Votes
    Did we win today? I saw a lot of Facebook reactions from people who’ve never posted about the Mariners until last week. They seem disappointed.
    RaceBannondnc
  • Fishpo31Fishpo31 Member Posts: 1,518
    2,500 Awesomes 1,000 Up Votes 250 Answers 1000 Comments

    Fishpo31 said:

    chuck said:

    Fishpo31 said:

    Bob_C said:

    Fishpo31 said:

    Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
    Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
    Four seam FB: .350
    Sinker: .349
    Cutter: .315
    Change up: .292
    Slider: .269
    Curveball: .263
    Splitter: .257

    Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.

    In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
    Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
    Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.

    The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.

    I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.

    Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.

    I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.
    I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.

    FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.

    The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.

    It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.

    Good stuff!
    Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.

    Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic.
    True, but pinpoint control is considered the ability to throw it to a 12" X 12" box. After that, it is throwing to the correct quadrant of the zone, up and down, in and out...i.e., if the location is down/away, don't miss in, and vise-versa. They are setting pitch plans based on past performance of the hitter, and what the catcher/pitcher see the hitter adjust to during the at-bat, and reading swings. A lot of the highlight-show HRs are double-crosses...the hitter is set up for down and away, and miss up/middle in.

    Hitters will subtly cheat to pitches, and a good catcher/pitcher will catch this, and adjust. If you go away, away, away, guys will creep up on the plate, and you bust them in. The swing-back 2 seamer is perhaps the most difficult pitch to throw consistently. Maddux had it mastered, but when he figured it out, he was throwing 86-88, with laser command. The glove-side down and away FB is the toughest pitch to hit, and throw, consistently.

    The key is where you miss, and that is dictated by the count. 0-0 and in pitcher's counts, if you miss, miss off the plate. In hitter's counts, you have to miss on the plate, or walk them. Obvious stuff, but important stuff. The previous pitch sets up the next one. An old saying that still works is, "If you want to get them out away, you've got to go in" to push them back just a smidge, and open up that spot. If you want to get them out in, get them leaning to the outside.

    Don't see it much anymore, but guys used to bait pitchers into throwing them what they want. The two guys that were most obvious, later in their career, were Dale Murphy and Dave Winfield. They both stood way off the plate, looking like they wanted to clear for the FB in. Guys would pitch them away, and they would dive in and drive it to right field, covering up the fact that they couldn't catch up to the inside FB anymore...
    I believe I will refrain from ever arguing matters relating to pitching with either of you.
    Like we say, NO! Open discussion, all hands on deck. For me, no flex intended, I’m just a baseball geek, and love discussing it…the more the merrier!
    phineaschuckcreepycoug
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 86,361
    Swaye's Wigwam 50000 Comments 10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes
    TSIO

    The Ms grasp defeat from the jaws of victory and blow the momentum they had and gave it all to Houston

    Fishpo31MakaDawgphineascreepycoug
  • Fishpo31Fishpo31 Member Posts: 1,518
    2,500 Awesomes 1,000 Up Votes 250 Answers 1000 Comments
    “Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher”…

    -Earl Weaver
    dnc
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 86,361
    Swaye's Wigwam 50000 Comments 10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes
    Wait for the 3 run Homer- Earl Weaver
    Fishpo31JoeEDangerouslydnc
  • phineasphineas Member Posts: 4,142
    Eighth Anniversary 2,500 Up Votes 2,500 Awesomes 2500 Comments
    Well the good news is, we shouldnt have to see sewald in any high stress spots anymore, and definitely shouldnt see robbie ray again in this series. they deserve whatever it is they get if they roll those bums out there again.
    chuck
  • chuckchuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,227
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes Ninth Anniversary
    All *we saw last night was the superior team eventually flexing their muscle. Houston is better than Seattle in every way.
    The Ms showed their best and its not as good. They have to play over their heads to win this thing. No surprises.

    It's not over, but it's probably over.
    dnc
  • Fenderbender123Fenderbender123 Member Posts: 2,430
    5,000 Awesomes Eighth Anniversary 2,500 Up Votes 250 Answers
    Now it's over.
  • chuckchuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,227
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes Ninth Anniversary
    It was always over.

    The Ms have put together a nice team. They look like they belong there, but aren't quite a threat to a team as deep as Houston yet. Need a couple more dangerous bats, continued improvement from a couple of guys like Julio, Munoz, Kirby, and Gilbert and another good bullpen arm or two.

    They're right there, but Houston is the model and it's easy to see where Seattle doesn't match up. If you can't find a guy like Alvarez for the middle of the order then you need a couple of guys like Turner to replace him. Houston, unfortunately, has both.
    phineasdnc
  • Fishpo31Fishpo31 Member Posts: 1,518
    2,500 Awesomes 1,000 Up Votes 250 Answers 1000 Comments
    They will have a couple more "mature" bats and arms next year...these guys are not ready for prime time, yet...they are good (the Astros are top-two for me), they are in it, but haven't been able to finish. That comes with experience, and experience is often painful, as "we" all know...Astros are dominant at home. Let's see what happens this weekend, and IF we get to game 5, all bets are off...EWIWBI...
    chuckphineas
  • BleachedAnusDawgBleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 7,524
    10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes 5000 Comments 250 Answers
    Anybody think it's starting to click for Kelenic?
    phineas
  • chuckchuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,227
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes Ninth Anniversary

    Anybody think it's starting to click for Kelenic?

    It's possible. He looks a bit better at the plate. He has flashed the ability to take tough pitches and hit the ball the other way at times in the past. When he is hitting the ball he tends to hit it hard and probably has the most pure power of any of their hitters.

    He doesn't have to be amazing, .240 with 20+ homers would help them.

    Bigger question for me is Jesse Winker. Is he burnt toast or is he capable of hitting 25 homers with high slugging and BA?

    Nobody aside from Julio, Raleigh, and a couple of young starters had a exceptiinal seasona vs exoectations. Several of the guys they needed on offense were hurt or had downturns (huge downturn in Winker's case), and this is where it got them. It's not a finished product but there's still plenty of reason to think this isn't their best yet.
    Fishpo31phineasdnc
  • phineasphineas Member Posts: 4,142
    Eighth Anniversary 2,500 Up Votes 2,500 Awesomes 2500 Comments
    im not familiar with winkers time before the mariners but hopefully next year he can get back to that standard. i assume he wont be leaving any time soon.
    chuck
  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 49,884
    Swaye's Wigwam Solar Eclipse Donator Tenth Anniversary 10,000 Awesomes

    Anybody think it's starting to click for Kelenic?

    @RoadDawg55?
  • phineasphineas Member Posts: 4,142
    Eighth Anniversary 2,500 Up Votes 2,500 Awesomes 2500 Comments
    fire servais in the dugout for putting diego castillo in this game
  • chuckchuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,227
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes Ninth Anniversary
    phineas said:

    im not familiar with winkers time before the mariners but hopefully next year he can get back to that standard. i assume he wont be leaving any time soon.

    They have Winker for one more arbitration year I think. I can't recite his stats but he tore it up in Cincinnati for the healthy parts of three seasons or so, like high .900 ops. I think the short fences there probably helped him some, but he still hit way, way below expectations.
    phineasdnc
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