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The Military Situation In The Ukraine

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  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,690 Standard Supporter

    pawz said:

    pawz said:

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-an-update/


    Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine. He is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, in particular Le Détournement published by SIGEST, Gouverner par les fake news, L’affaire Navalny. His latest book is Poutine, maître du jeu? published by Max Milo.

    This article appears through the gracious courtesy of Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement, Paris. Translated from the French by N. Dass.




    A sober view.

    FYFMFE


    tldr






    @HoustonHusky @LoneStarDawg @UW_Doog_Bot @RatherBeBrewing @GrundleStiltzkin @RoadTrip

    Sorry not sorry reads like Kremlin primer.

    Glosses over essentially that little "invasion" of Crimea.

    Glosses over the little green men in Donbas since 2014? Ish. "Only 50 foreign fighters" sure.gif

    Putin is demilitarizing the Ukraine! Ok, so your invading a sovereign country to defeat its military. Pretty classic communist rebranding there.

    Maybe I didn't get to the good part but he took a long time getting there and at some point I've had my fill of rehashed Kremlin talking points.

    @RatherBeBrewing will probably be more willing and motivated to post a tequila style takedown.
    Not even worth my usual explanation. Mssr Baud is just a simple expert for hire, and his client is Russia. In fact, any of you can hire him to lend his resume to whatever you would like him to justify or distort - it’s not very difficult to find how.

    There’s no nice way to say this, but if anyone believes this assclown they are either very dim or are just looking for a source that confirms what they want to believe. I’m dumb for having read it, and even dumber for bothering to write the shit below.

    Look at Baud’s articles and interviews. Special military operation this, special military operation that. That’s to avoid Russia’s new laws, where you can’t call their invasion a war. That should be a dead giveaway every time.

    Denazification, Russian speaker genocide, THE Ukraine, speaking about the tiny parcels of two oblasts as if they are legitimate republics. Trying to explain the ass kicking in Kyiv as the original plan, and all those dead Russian soldiers are by design to spare civilians, instead of air strikes like the Western strategy. Although Russia has used more cruise missiles in two months than the United States has used in TOTAL in all conflicts in the last 30 years, but few people will check. Jesus, the use of MLRS like the Smerch (successor to the still in heavy use Uragan and Grad) with cluster munitions by both Russia and Ukraine is worse than air strikes for civilians by far.
    I've been sitting on this for a while because I wanted to collect my thoughts, and I'm busy af. Your point about referencing a "special military operation" is fair.

    The challenge I have - especially when trying to get to the bottom of what's going on - is the rote line we hear "Putin is invading a sovereign country!!" Why? "Because he's worse than Hitler!" What if I want to know more? "Putin apologist!!"

    After the Hunter Biden laptop story broke, we heard all about the 50 intelligence officers saying "it has the hallmarks of Russian disinformation!!" Well, frankly, the US Govt's explanation has all the hallmarks of every tim they've gas lit the American public the last 6 years - from Russiagate to Covid and many many parts in between.

    So how is this different? Given recent history, "Putin is evil" by itself is not a good enough explanation.

    When one searches for more substantive understanding, it's almost always castigated as Russian Misinformation. That might be true to some degree, but when we are not allowed to parse out fact from fiction, we are eternally where we started with the narrative makers stonewalling the conversation. It's happened here on this bored many times.

    I think of the information we are hearing as a 3-sided venn diagram - Western narrative, Russo narrative and objective truth. How are we supposed to discern the intersection of the 3-sides when we aren't allowed to even entertain a differing explanation.

    Nearly all of the independent media has some nuance around the idea that the US could/should have done more to stop the war before it started. And a lot are so perplexed that they take it a step further, that the US wanted a war to break out. Given the ever escalating rhetoric from the Administration, it's not hard to believe this is the case.


    Getting back to Baud: In my view the compelling part of the story he has to tell is that it corroborates in much greater detail what fmr weapons inspector Scott Ritter and ret. Col Douglas Macgregor under Gen Wesley Clark at NATO, and academic John Mearsheimer have been saying the entire tim. Two of those three are US soldiers/officers who are very much still loyal to the US (despite smears).


    Anyway, that's a long winded way of saying there seems to be a lot more there then the US want's discussed, for whatever reasons.

    Further, this pervading idea that the US govt a would NEVER lie and we must fall in line behind their assertions just seems crazy in light of what's happened the last 6 years - and orders of magnitude more so the last 2.5.


    Admittedly I don't know enough about this conflict. But the one thing I do know, is I can not trust the us govt/msm apparatchik. So yeah, I'm going to turn to more independent sources to help understand what's going.





    *I may add on more in the morning when less tired
    The US government can be lying just the same as the Kremlin. Considering both sides doesn't necessarily get one any closer to the truth.

    The venn diagram can just be three separate circles after all.

    Occam's razor says this war is about 3 things.

    Ukraine's potential to become a gas competitor to Russia in Europe. (See previous Georgia invasion iirc)

    Russia vs. NATO proxy security dominoes.

    Russia's gross miscalculation that this would be a 3 day war where they would be greeted as liberators and able to setup a client state easily. (Typical of authoritarian regimes that live in an echo chamber)
    Obama had no trouble installing a puppet government in '14. Did we send them free Dominion voting machines?
  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,009 Standard Supporter
    Sledog said:

    pawz said:

    pawz said:

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-an-update/


    Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine. He is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, in particular Le Détournement published by SIGEST, Gouverner par les fake news, L’affaire Navalny. His latest book is Poutine, maître du jeu? published by Max Milo.

    This article appears through the gracious courtesy of Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement, Paris. Translated from the French by N. Dass.




    A sober view.

    FYFMFE


    tldr






    @HoustonHusky @LoneStarDawg @UW_Doog_Bot @RatherBeBrewing @GrundleStiltzkin @RoadTrip

    Sorry not sorry reads like Kremlin primer.

    Glosses over essentially that little "invasion" of Crimea.

    Glosses over the little green men in Donbas since 2014? Ish. "Only 50 foreign fighters" sure.gif

    Putin is demilitarizing the Ukraine! Ok, so your invading a sovereign country to defeat its military. Pretty classic communist rebranding there.

    Maybe I didn't get to the good part but he took a long time getting there and at some point I've had my fill of rehashed Kremlin talking points.

    @RatherBeBrewing will probably be more willing and motivated to post a tequila style takedown.
    Not even worth my usual explanation. Mssr Baud is just a simple expert for hire, and his client is Russia. In fact, any of you can hire him to lend his resume to whatever you would like him to justify or distort - it’s not very difficult to find how.

    There’s no nice way to say this, but if anyone believes this assclown they are either very dim or are just looking for a source that confirms what they want to believe. I’m dumb for having read it, and even dumber for bothering to write the shit below.

    Look at Baud’s articles and interviews. Special military operation this, special military operation that. That’s to avoid Russia’s new laws, where you can’t call their invasion a war. That should be a dead giveaway every time.

    Denazification, Russian speaker genocide, THE Ukraine, speaking about the tiny parcels of two oblasts as if they are legitimate republics. Trying to explain the ass kicking in Kyiv as the original plan, and all those dead Russian soldiers are by design to spare civilians, instead of air strikes like the Western strategy. Although Russia has used more cruise missiles in two months than the United States has used in TOTAL in all conflicts in the last 30 years, but few people will check. Jesus, the use of MLRS like the Smerch (successor to the still in heavy use Uragan and Grad) with cluster munitions by both Russia and Ukraine is worse than air strikes for civilians by far.
    I've been sitting on this for a while because I wanted to collect my thoughts, and I'm busy af. Your point about referencing a "special military operation" is fair.

    The challenge I have - especially when trying to get to the bottom of what's going on - is the rote line we hear "Putin is invading a sovereign country!!" Why? "Because he's worse than Hitler!" What if I want to know more? "Putin apologist!!"

    After the Hunter Biden laptop story broke, we heard all about the 50 intelligence officers saying "it has the hallmarks of Russian disinformation!!" Well, frankly, the US Govt's explanation has all the hallmarks of every tim they've gas lit the American public the last 6 years - from Russiagate to Covid and many many parts in between.

    So how is this different? Given recent history, "Putin is evil" by itself is not a good enough explanation.

    When one searches for more substantive understanding, it's almost always castigated as Russian Misinformation. That might be true to some degree, but when we are not allowed to parse out fact from fiction, we are eternally where we started with the narrative makers stonewalling the conversation. It's happened here on this bored many times.

    I think of the information we are hearing as a 3-sided venn diagram - Western narrative, Russo narrative and objective truth. How are we supposed to discern the intersection of the 3-sides when we aren't allowed to even entertain a differing explanation.

    Nearly all of the independent media has some nuance around the idea that the US could/should have done more to stop the war before it started. And a lot are so perplexed that they take it a step further, that the US wanted a war to break out. Given the ever escalating rhetoric from the Administration, it's not hard to believe this is the case.


    Getting back to Baud: In my view the compelling part of the story he has to tell is that it corroborates in much greater detail what fmr weapons inspector Scott Ritter and ret. Col Douglas Macgregor under Gen Wesley Clark at NATO, and academic John Mearsheimer have been saying the entire tim. Two of those three are US soldiers/officers who are very much still loyal to the US (despite smears).


    Anyway, that's a long winded way of saying there seems to be a lot more there then the US want's discussed, for whatever reasons.

    Further, this pervading idea that the US govt a would NEVER lie and we must fall in line behind their assertions just seems crazy in light of what's happened the last 6 years - and orders of magnitude more so the last 2.5.


    Admittedly I don't know enough about this conflict. But the one thing I do know, is I can not trust the us govt/msm apparatchik. So yeah, I'm going to turn to more independent sources to help understand what's going.





    *I may add on more in the morning when less tired
    The US government can be lying just the same as the Kremlin. Considering both sides doesn't necessarily get one any closer to the truth.

    The venn diagram can just be three separate circles after all.

    Occam's razor says this war is about 3 things.

    Ukraine's potential to become a gas competitor to Russia in Europe. (See previous Georgia invasion iirc)

    Russia vs. NATO proxy security dominoes.

    Russia's gross miscalculation that this would be a 3 day war where they would be greeted as liberators and able to setup a client state easily. (Typical of authoritarian regimes that live in an echo chamber)
    Obama had no trouble installing a puppet government in '14. Did we send them free Dominion voting machines?
    Where do you think the test run originated?

  • 46XiJCAB46XiJCAB Member Posts: 20,967
    DIMS and GOP chickenhawks have already decided what the military solution is. American soldiers dying on the battlefield. GOP leaders better let it be known loud and clear that isn't gonna happen. Pelosi and crew visiting Ukraine was the camel's nose under the tent.
  • SwayeSwaye Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,452 Founders Club
  • TurdBomberTurdBomber Member Posts: 19,950 Standard Supporter
    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.
  • WestlinnDuckWestlinnDuck Member Posts: 15,217 Standard Supporter
    Very "religious" people from the West did a hell of a lot of conquering and killing and enslaving. I'm assuming a lot of Christians and Jews were involved in dropping a couple of nukes on Japan. I agree that the atheistic left/commies don't believe in individuals or God. Their religion is state control to achieve a mythical group utopia and a pile of dead people is just breaking some eggs to make an omelet. I also agree that without some moral bearing people do fail as they contemplate a purposeless life.

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

  • TurdBomberTurdBomber Member Posts: 19,950 Standard Supporter
    edited May 2022

    Very "religious" people from the West did a hell of a lot of conquering and killing and enslaving. I'm assuming a lot of Christians and Jews were involved in dropping a couple of nukes on Japan. I agree that the atheistic left/commies don't believe in individuals or God. Their religion is state control to achieve a mythical group utopia and a pile of dead people is just breaking some eggs to make an omelet. I also agree that without some moral bearing people do fail as they contemplate a purposeless life.

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

    I'm not certain whether this was a reality check by RBB or an endorsement of East Euro/former Soviet "toughness."

    Either way, I can't imagine such a thought process grinding in the minds of anyone with the least bit of optimism in their souls.

    To see others as cannon-fodder is one thing. To see or accept oneself in such a manner is grim AF.

    What's more, where or what is this fanciful "greater good" such thoughts would serve? I guess I'm just too "westernized" to reconcile it with anything useful.
  • WestlinnDuckWestlinnDuck Member Posts: 15,217 Standard Supporter

    Very "religious" people from the West did a hell of a lot of conquering and killing and enslaving. I'm assuming a lot of Christians and Jews were involved in dropping a couple of nukes on Japan. I agree that the atheistic left/commies don't believe in individuals or God. Their religion is state control to achieve a mythical group utopia and a pile of dead people is just breaking some eggs to make an omelet. I also agree that without some moral bearing people do fail as they contemplate a purposeless life.

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

    I'm not certain whether this was a reality check by RBB or an endorsement of East Euro/former Soviet "toughness."

    Either way, I can't imagine such a thought process grinding in the minds of anyone with the least bit of optimism in their souls.

    To see others as cannon-fodder is one thing. To see or accept oneself in such a manner is grim AF.

    What's more, where or what is this fanciful "greater good" such thoughts would serve? I guess I'm just too "westernized" to reconcile it with anything useful.
    Marx was a westerner. So was Ludwig Von Mises. The dichotomy of the state being supreme or the individual. The founders of our Republic chose the individual. The modern American left has chosen the state along with the RINOs.
  • RatherBeBrewingRatherBeBrewing Member Posts: 1,557

    Very "religious" people from the West did a hell of a lot of conquering and killing and enslaving. I'm assuming a lot of Christians and Jews were involved in dropping a couple of nukes on Japan. I agree that the atheistic left/commies don't believe in individuals or God. Their religion is state control to achieve a mythical group utopia and a pile of dead people is just breaking some eggs to make an omelet. I also agree that without some moral bearing people do fail as they contemplate a purposeless life.

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

    I'm not certain whether this was a reality check by RBB or an endorsement of East Euro/former Soviet "toughness."

    Either way, I can't imagine such a thought process grinding in the minds of anyone with the least bit of optimism in their souls.

    To see others as cannon-fodder is one thing. To see or accept oneself in such a manner is grim AF.

    What's more, where or what is this fanciful "greater good" such thoughts would serve? I guess I'm just too "westernized" to reconcile it with anything useful.
    Marx was a westerner. So was Ludwig Von Mises. The dichotomy of the state being supreme or the individual. The founders of our Republic chose the individual. The modern American left has chosen the state along with the RINOs.

  • RatherBeBrewingRatherBeBrewing Member Posts: 1,557

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

    I can’t comment with certainty on whether it’s a philosophical/cultural difference. The collectivism vs individualism thing isn’t something starkly different. It’s surmised that in Russia and the rest of Asia it skews towards collectivist while in Europe more so towards an individualistic mindset or a hybrid of the two.

    The Russian mindset is often “we are suffering thus our cause is noble” instead of “our cause is noble thus we are willing to suffer” - I don’t understand it either.

    It manifests itself in things like Putin being the latest beloved tyrant in Russia’s history. In contrast to Ukraine, which has had six presidents post-USSR, and only one has been re-elected thus far.

    I just mentioned this because the OP article author Baud uses this as an excuses for Russia’s staggering troop losses. It’s an attempt to impress upon a Western audience that this is perfectly fine - Russia is willing to let those soldiers die because they’re not obsessed with the stats, they want to save civilians at their own expense.



    He’s full of shit on who killed more Afghanis, not worth even refuting, it’s just a pattern. It’s also a complete distortion of Soviet, and now Russian, military tactics. Which are destroy everything with artillery and then send in the good troops followed by the conscript slop poppers.
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,976
    edited May 2022
    More fun with maps:


    The western half of Ukraine spent the last 8+ years attacking the eastern half and trying to mandate them to not to speak Russian...hell even Zelensky ran on a peace platform of stopping the attacks against people in Donbass and won a shite-ton of the vote. Then he went out East and tried to tell the Azov crowd they need to find a new line of work and they laughed in his face on National TV and said they weren't stopping and if he pulled any troops they would find 10x more. And he gave in, lost most of his internal support, and is now being forced by the West into a protracted war that is leaving his own people bearing the brunt of the pain and suffering all so the idiots in DC and the Raytheon crowd can think they are weakening Russia while they are really bankrupting Europe. I'm sure his banking accounts that were dug up in the Panama Papers are doing well though.

    BTW...surprised nobody commented on the dust-up in Germany a few days ago when they showed video of a few Azov fighters and they just happened to have some Nazi symbols...amazing how the media covers up some of this stuff...
  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,009 Standard Supporter
    I miss the old days when we made up excuses for wars and got cheap gas out of the deal.

  • pawzpawz Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 20,855 Founders Club

    I miss the old days when we made up excuses for wars and got cheap gas out of the deal.

    How old are you? RaceBannon old?
  • TurdBomberTurdBomber Member Posts: 19,950 Standard Supporter
    pawz said:

    I miss the old days when we made up excuses for wars and got cheap gas out of the deal.

    How old are you? RaceBannon old?
    Race played for Gil Dobie, I hear. Show some respect.
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