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The Military Situation In The Ukraine

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  • pawz
    pawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 22,417 Founders Club

    pawz said:

    pawz said:

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-an-update/


    Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine. He is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, in particular Le Détournement published by SIGEST, Gouverner par les fake news, L’affaire Navalny. His latest book is Poutine, maître du jeu? published by Max Milo.

    This article appears through the gracious courtesy of Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement, Paris. Translated from the French by N. Dass.




    A sober view.

    FYFMFE


    tldr






    @HoustonHusky @LoneStarDawg @UW_Doog_Bot @RatherBeBrewing @GrundleStiltzkin @RoadTrip

    Sorry not sorry reads like Kremlin primer.

    Glosses over essentially that little "invasion" of Crimea.

    Glosses over the little green men in Donbas since 2014? Ish. "Only 50 foreign fighters" sure.gif

    Putin is demilitarizing the Ukraine! Ok, so your invading a sovereign country to defeat its military. Pretty classic communist rebranding there.

    Maybe I didn't get to the good part but he took a long time getting there and at some point I've had my fill of rehashed Kremlin talking points.

    @RatherBeBrewing will probably be more willing and motivated to post a tequila style takedown.
    Not even worth my usual explanation. Mssr Baud is just a simple expert for hire, and his client is Russia. In fact, any of you can hire him to lend his resume to whatever you would like him to justify or distort - it’s not very difficult to find how.

    There’s no nice way to say this, but if anyone believes this assclown they are either very dim or are just looking for a source that confirms what they want to believe. I’m dumb for having read it, and even dumber for bothering to write the shit below.

    Look at Baud’s articles and interviews. Special military operation this, special military operation that. That’s to avoid Russia’s new laws, where you can’t call their invasion a war. That should be a dead giveaway every time.

    Denazification, Russian speaker genocide, THE Ukraine, speaking about the tiny parcels of two oblasts as if they are legitimate republics. Trying to explain the ass kicking in Kyiv as the original plan, and all those dead Russian soldiers are by design to spare civilians, instead of air strikes like the Western strategy. Although Russia has used more cruise missiles in two months than the United States has used in TOTAL in all conflicts in the last 30 years, but few people will check. Jesus, the use of MLRS like the Smerch (successor to the still in heavy use Uragan and Grad) with cluster munitions by both Russia and Ukraine is worse than air strikes for civilians by far.
    I've been sitting on this for a while because I wanted to collect my thoughts, and I'm busy af. Your point about referencing a "special military operation" is fair.

    The challenge I have - especially when trying to get to the bottom of what's going on - is the rote line we hear "Putin is invading a sovereign country!!" Why? "Because he's worse than Hitler!" What if I want to know more? "Putin apologist!!"

    After the Hunter Biden laptop story broke, we heard all about the 50 intelligence officers saying "it has the hallmarks of Russian disinformation!!" Well, frankly, the US Govt's explanation has all the hallmarks of every tim they've gas lit the American public the last 6 years - from Russiagate to Covid and many many parts in between.

    So how is this different? Given recent history, "Putin is evil" by itself is not a good enough explanation.

    When one searches for more substantive understanding, it's almost always castigated as Russian Misinformation. That might be true to some degree, but when we are not allowed to parse out fact from fiction, we are eternally where we started with the narrative makers stonewalling the conversation. It's happened here on this bored many times.

    I think of the information we are hearing as a 3-sided venn diagram - Western narrative, Russo narrative and objective truth. How are we supposed to discern the intersection of the 3-sides when we aren't allowed to even entertain a differing explanation.

    Nearly all of the independent media has some nuance around the idea that the US could/should have done more to stop the war before it started. And a lot are so perplexed that they take it a step further, that the US wanted a war to break out. Given the ever escalating rhetoric from the Administration, it's not hard to believe this is the case.


    Getting back to Baud: In my view the compelling part of the story he has to tell is that it corroborates in much greater detail what fmr weapons inspector Scott Ritter and ret. Col Douglas Macgregor under Gen Wesley Clark at NATO, and academic John Mearsheimer have been saying the entire tim. Two of those three are US soldiers/officers who are very much still loyal to the US (despite smears).


    Anyway, that's a long winded way of saying there seems to be a lot more there then the US want's discussed, for whatever reasons.

    Further, this pervading idea that the US govt a would NEVER lie and we must fall in line behind their assertions just seems crazy in light of what's happened the last 6 years - and orders of magnitude more so the last 2.5.


    Admittedly I don't know enough about this conflict. But the one thing I do know, is I can not trust the us govt/msm apparatchik. So yeah, I'm going to turn to more independent sources to help understand what's going.





    *I may add on more in the morning when less tired
    The US government can be lying just the same as the Kremlin. Considering both sides doesn't necessarily get one any closer to the truth.

    The venn diagram can just be three separate circles after all.

    Occam's razor says this war is about 3 things.

    Ukraine's potential to become a gas competitor to Russia in Europe. (See previous Georgia invasion iirc)

    Russia vs. NATO proxy security dominoes.

    Russia's gross miscalculation that this would be a 3 day war where they would be greeted as liberators and able to setup a client state easily. (Typical of authoritarian regimes that live in an echo chamber)

    Within the Venn diagram I don't think the Western narrative and Russo narrative circles overlap - at all. I think this more than anything allows the narrative makers to smear any dissenting opinion.

    This is the first I'm hearing about UKR being a competitor to Russia for a petrodollar. In the past, UKR collected a fee when Russia used their pipes to transport energy. That went away with the Nordstream projects. (I know nothing about the Georgia Invasion to make an evaluation in this conversation.)

    Russia v NATO proxy security dominoes seems to me to be the lynch-pin to this whole conflict. I'm open to being wrong however I see the preponderance of evidence leaning that way.


    Russian miscalculations in their war-gaming model for how long this would take appear to be a think. However two claims need to be parsed out. In particular,

    Scott Ritter makes the point that the way the US does war is to flatten everything - all of it. Whereas in his view, he thinks Russia does not want to actually destroy UKR or it's infrastructure and is being more methodical and surgical.

    Secondly, there is an idea floating around that time is on the side of Russia. They can afford to wait, to operate in a very calculated, maybe surgical, manor. For example, we know their preference is to let Azof rot in the Maripol bunker/complex, As opposed to bursting in like the Kool-aide man.
  • RatherBeBrewing
    RatherBeBrewing Member Posts: 1,557
    pawz said:

    pawz said:

    pawz said:

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-an-update/


    Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine. He is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, in particular Le Détournement published by SIGEST, Gouverner par les fake news, L’affaire Navalny. His latest book is Poutine, maître du jeu? published by Max Milo.

    This article appears through the gracious courtesy of Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement, Paris. Translated from the French by N. Dass.




    A sober view.

    FYFMFE


    tldr






    @HoustonHusky @LoneStarDawg @UW_Doog_Bot @RatherBeBrewing @GrundleStiltzkin @RoadTrip

    Sorry not sorry reads like Kremlin primer.

    Glosses over essentially that little "invasion" of Crimea.

    Glosses over the little green men in Donbas since 2014? Ish. "Only 50 foreign fighters" sure.gif

    Putin is demilitarizing the Ukraine! Ok, so your invading a sovereign country to defeat its military. Pretty classic communist rebranding there.

    Maybe I didn't get to the good part but he took a long time getting there and at some point I've had my fill of rehashed Kremlin talking points.

    @RatherBeBrewing will probably be more willing and motivated to post a tequila style takedown.
    Not even worth my usual explanation. Mssr Baud is just a simple expert for hire, and his client is Russia. In fact, any of you can hire him to lend his resume to whatever you would like him to justify or distort - it’s not very difficult to find how.

    There’s no nice way to say this, but if anyone believes this assclown they are either very dim or are just looking for a source that confirms what they want to believe. I’m dumb for having read it, and even dumber for bothering to write the shit below.

    Look at Baud’s articles and interviews. Special military operation this, special military operation that. That’s to avoid Russia’s new laws, where you can’t call their invasion a war. That should be a dead giveaway every time.

    Denazification, Russian speaker genocide, THE Ukraine, speaking about the tiny parcels of two oblasts as if they are legitimate republics. Trying to explain the ass kicking in Kyiv as the original plan, and all those dead Russian soldiers are by design to spare civilians, instead of air strikes like the Western strategy. Although Russia has used more cruise missiles in two months than the United States has used in TOTAL in all conflicts in the last 30 years, but few people will check. Jesus, the use of MLRS like the Smerch (successor to the still in heavy use Uragan and Grad) with cluster munitions by both Russia and Ukraine is worse than air strikes for civilians by far.
    I've been sitting on this for a while because I wanted to collect my thoughts, and I'm busy af. Your point about referencing a "special military operation" is fair.

    The challenge I have - especially when trying to get to the bottom of what's going on - is the rote line we hear "Putin is invading a sovereign country!!" Why? "Because he's worse than Hitler!" What if I want to know more? "Putin apologist!!"

    After the Hunter Biden laptop story broke, we heard all about the 50 intelligence officers saying "it has the hallmarks of Russian disinformation!!" Well, frankly, the US Govt's explanation has all the hallmarks of every tim they've gas lit the American public the last 6 years - from Russiagate to Covid and many many parts in between.

    So how is this different? Given recent history, "Putin is evil" by itself is not a good enough explanation.

    When one searches for more substantive understanding, it's almost always castigated as Russian Misinformation. That might be true to some degree, but when we are not allowed to parse out fact from fiction, we are eternally where we started with the narrative makers stonewalling the conversation. It's happened here on this bored many times.

    I think of the information we are hearing as a 3-sided venn diagram - Western narrative, Russo narrative and objective truth. How are we supposed to discern the intersection of the 3-sides when we aren't allowed to even entertain a differing explanation.

    Nearly all of the independent media has some nuance around the idea that the US could/should have done more to stop the war before it started. And a lot are so perplexed that they take it a step further, that the US wanted a war to break out. Given the ever escalating rhetoric from the Administration, it's not hard to believe this is the case.


    Getting back to Baud: In my view the compelling part of the story he has to tell is that it corroborates in much greater detail what fmr weapons inspector Scott Ritter and ret. Col Douglas Macgregor under Gen Wesley Clark at NATO, and academic John Mearsheimer have been saying the entire tim. Two of those three are US soldiers/officers who are very much still loyal to the US (despite smears).


    Anyway, that's a long winded way of saying there seems to be a lot more there then the US want's discussed, for whatever reasons.

    Further, this pervading idea that the US govt a would NEVER lie and we must fall in line behind their assertions just seems crazy in light of what's happened the last 6 years - and orders of magnitude more so the last 2.5.


    Admittedly I don't know enough about this conflict. But the one thing I do know, is I can not trust the us govt/msm apparatchik. So yeah, I'm going to turn to more independent sources to help understand what's going.





    *I may add on more in the morning when less tired
    The US government can be lying just the same as the Kremlin. Considering both sides doesn't necessarily get one any closer to the truth.

    The venn diagram can just be three separate circles after all.

    Occam's razor says this war is about 3 things.

    Ukraine's potential to become a gas competitor to Russia in Europe. (See previous Georgia invasion iirc)

    Russia vs. NATO proxy security dominoes.

    Russia's gross miscalculation that this would be a 3 day war where they would be greeted as liberators and able to setup a client state easily. (Typical of authoritarian regimes that live in an echo chamber)

    Within the Venn diagram I don't think the Western narrative and Russo narrative circles overlap - at all. I think this more than anything allows the narrative makers to smear any dissenting opinion.

    This is the first I'm hearing about UKR being a competitor to Russia for a petrodollar. In the past, UKR collected a fee when Russia used their pipes to transport energy. That went away with the Nordstream projects. (I know nothing about the Georgia Invasion to make an evaluation in this conversation.)

    Russia v NATO proxy security dominoes seems to me to be the lynch-pin to this whole conflict. I'm open to being wrong however I see the preponderance of evidence leaning that way.


    Russian miscalculations in their war-gaming model for how long this would take appear to be a think. However two claims need to be parsed out. In particular,

    Scott Ritter makes the point that the way the US does war is to flatten everything - all of it. Whereas in his view, he thinks Russia does not want to actually destroy UKR or it's infrastructure and is being more methodical and surgical.

    Secondly, there is an idea floating around that time is on the side of Russia. They can afford to wait, to operate in a very calculated, maybe surgical, manor. For example, we know their preference is to let Azof rot in the Maripol bunker/complex, As opposed to bursting in like the Kool-aide man.
    I’ll agree with you that the longer this goes on the more it favors Russia. Ukraine is a hot ticket to support now, but eventually a really important celebrity will die or an earthquake will hit some places where they use wattle for walls and rusty metal spikes for ceilings or some virgin will go to school and shoot the better looking, more popular kids.

    I might disagree on not wanting to destroy, they’ve been really subtle but you can glean hints once in a while. For example, they’ve been destroying Ukraine, while saying that they would like to destroy Ukraine. It does get contradictory because they also say that Ukraine doesn’t exist, but if it did boy would they love to destroy it.

    Quick question, the only one that isn’t just a mechanism of delivering my idea but one to answer: why do you keep trusting Russian government affiliated sources? Two days before launching the war they said they wouldn’t invade. They said it wasn’t them in Crimea and then went with a “gotcha it was really us” or that they weren’t in Donbas. Or that they didn’t shoot that plane full of Dutch people who thought no way Malaysia Airlines can fuck up twice in such a short time span. Like what’s the level of credibility they have with you?

    Let’s ignore that Scott Ritter is a registered sex offender who went to prison for jacking off in front of his web camera for what he thought was a 15 year old girl. After he had previously tried to pick up minors for sex. His reasoning was he thought it was an adult play acting as a child. I think stings are ethically questionable, but if this dude kept trying to fuck 15 year olds then I question his judgment and thus the validity of what he says.

    Just ignore that part. Let’s focus on the fact that he’s done work for Russian state media. Do you think he’s unbiased when the people who pay him are the same baddies invading another country? Rhetorical, don’t answer. He’s been wrong on so many things that saying his name is like telling me about college football and starting it with “Jimmy Lake says”, but Jimmy Lake in addition to being a shitty head coach also whacks off for undercover cops that he thinks aren’t old enough to get a driver’s license.

    Anyway, I’m not sure who came up with the theory the US military flattens everything while Russia is “surgical” I know the US military loves them some shock and awe. However the Russian military tactical doctrine is artillery the fuck out of everything and then move in. Those MLRS systems with cluster payloads are surgical the same way the board game Operation is medical school.


    Above: surgical.

    They’re specifically hitting civilian infrastructure like schools, cultural sites, and hospitals. Kharkiv’s governor was saying back in March that it’s interesting that Russian artillery has singled out and destroyed the city’s schools.

    Very nice of Putin to declare a siege of an obsolete steel plant after completely destroying a city slightly more populous than Minneapolis and killing tens of thousands of civilians.
    Satellite before and after:

    Drone video of Mariupol before and after

    American Civil War era surgical:


    A million more examples. Tactical doctrine is the phrase I used. Have you heard of Grozny? Aleppo? Tbilisi?


    They, to use the technical terminology, fucked those places up. The US (lazily and with poor effect) tried to hold officers responsible for the My Lai massacre. Do you think Russia will do the same? Fuck no, different standards. It’s just how we, and I include myself because that’s where I’m from and received a good dose of indoctrination, view war. Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die.

    Anyway, here’s some mildly related lighthearted stuff.





  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member Posts: 8,145
    Not hostile to your opinion at all RBB. I asked the direct, devil's advocate questions because I really wanted to read your opinions which would flush the details out like you have been providing. I haven't been able to read your thouhhts yet but really look forward to them. I'm not sure exactly where I stand on this issue yet because while I know I shouldn't side with Russia almost ever, something doesn't pass the smell test with Ukraine and our? left's corruption there and it's fanatical desire to destroy Russia at all cost. They have been lying about Russia's influence in our country to the detriment of ours for years and I don't trust their motivation for war there is all. None of that matters as to the historical and regional knowledge you're sharing with us and why supporting Ukraine and going to war may be a good thing.
  • Bob_C
    Bob_C Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,624 Founders Club
    RoadTrip said:

    Not hostile to your opinion at all RBB. I asked the direct, devil's advocate questions because I really wanted to read your opinions which would flush the details out like you have been providing. I haven't been able to read your thouhhts yet but really look forward to them. I'm not sure exactly where I stand on this issue yet because while I know I shouldn't side with Russia almost ever, something doesn't pass the smell test with Ukraine and our? left's corruption there and it's fanatical desire to destroy Russia at all cost. They have been lying about Russia's influence in our country to the detriment of ours for years and I don't trust their motivation for war there is all. None of that matters as to the historical and regional knowledge you're sharing with us and why supporting Ukraine and going to war may be a good thing.

    This whole thing started out with moral dilemma potential, but once Europe decided that it would rather keep its lights on than cut Russia off from currency, I stopped giving a fuck.
  • GrundleStiltzkin
    GrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,516 Standard Supporter
    Swaye said:

    I am never sure if I agree or disagree with @RatherBeBrewing , or, if I just like his brand of storytelling, but I look forward to his posts about as much as Subaru wants lesbians in them. Most interesting and creative poster in forever, and it isn't close. Probably on Zelensky's payroll and here as a disinformation actor to convince a few retards on a backwater Pac-12 program board that Putin is maybe gay.

    Great chit
  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member Posts: 8,145
    Wow, I just read it all in detail and thank you so much for the input. I don't support Russia or Putin. Their position in the world is evil period, end of story. But our government is evil too and needs to be exposed for the greed and destruction it wroughts across the globe. Your incredible insight in regard to Prince being Betsy DeVos's brother and the wealth he has amassed through the industrial war complex is a stellar example. I question everything our? own pravda is demanding we believe as to why we should spend another trillion dollars (hyperbole but we'll probably get there) defending the Ukraine (making Zelensky another billionaire) and taking Russia out at all cost.

    So I really never focussed on who the mercenaries in the Donbas region were taking out civilians although your analysis of them not being Blackwater or any subsidiary of them was outstanding! I simply want to know why the Ukraine was fighting in this region killing Russian separatists. Perhaps those reports were also Russian propoganda? The whole Nazi narrative going back to unsettled, WWI and II scores is historically intriguing to me. It does seem these regional bias' against the Jews is something of interest. Thanks again for sharing your knowledge and intelligence with us!
  • Sledog
    Sledog Member Posts: 37,625 Standard Supporter

    pawz said:

    pawz said:

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-an-update/


    Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine. He is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, in particular Le Détournement published by SIGEST, Gouverner par les fake news, L’affaire Navalny. His latest book is Poutine, maître du jeu? published by Max Milo.

    This article appears through the gracious courtesy of Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement, Paris. Translated from the French by N. Dass.




    A sober view.

    FYFMFE


    tldr






    @HoustonHusky @LoneStarDawg @UW_Doog_Bot @RatherBeBrewing @GrundleStiltzkin @RoadTrip

    Sorry not sorry reads like Kremlin primer.

    Glosses over essentially that little "invasion" of Crimea.

    Glosses over the little green men in Donbas since 2014? Ish. "Only 50 foreign fighters" sure.gif

    Putin is demilitarizing the Ukraine! Ok, so your invading a sovereign country to defeat its military. Pretty classic communist rebranding there.

    Maybe I didn't get to the good part but he took a long time getting there and at some point I've had my fill of rehashed Kremlin talking points.

    @RatherBeBrewing will probably be more willing and motivated to post a tequila style takedown.
    Not even worth my usual explanation. Mssr Baud is just a simple expert for hire, and his client is Russia. In fact, any of you can hire him to lend his resume to whatever you would like him to justify or distort - it’s not very difficult to find how.

    There’s no nice way to say this, but if anyone believes this assclown they are either very dim or are just looking for a source that confirms what they want to believe. I’m dumb for having read it, and even dumber for bothering to write the shit below.

    Look at Baud’s articles and interviews. Special military operation this, special military operation that. That’s to avoid Russia’s new laws, where you can’t call their invasion a war. That should be a dead giveaway every time.

    Denazification, Russian speaker genocide, THE Ukraine, speaking about the tiny parcels of two oblasts as if they are legitimate republics. Trying to explain the ass kicking in Kyiv as the original plan, and all those dead Russian soldiers are by design to spare civilians, instead of air strikes like the Western strategy. Although Russia has used more cruise missiles in two months than the United States has used in TOTAL in all conflicts in the last 30 years, but few people will check. Jesus, the use of MLRS like the Smerch (successor to the still in heavy use Uragan and Grad) with cluster munitions by both Russia and Ukraine is worse than air strikes for civilians by far.
    I've been sitting on this for a while because I wanted to collect my thoughts, and I'm busy af. Your point about referencing a "special military operation" is fair.

    The challenge I have - especially when trying to get to the bottom of what's going on - is the rote line we hear "Putin is invading a sovereign country!!" Why? "Because he's worse than Hitler!" What if I want to know more? "Putin apologist!!"

    After the Hunter Biden laptop story broke, we heard all about the 50 intelligence officers saying "it has the hallmarks of Russian disinformation!!" Well, frankly, the US Govt's explanation has all the hallmarks of every tim they've gas lit the American public the last 6 years - from Russiagate to Covid and many many parts in between.

    So how is this different? Given recent history, "Putin is evil" by itself is not a good enough explanation.

    When one searches for more substantive understanding, it's almost always castigated as Russian Misinformation. That might be true to some degree, but when we are not allowed to parse out fact from fiction, we are eternally where we started with the narrative makers stonewalling the conversation. It's happened here on this bored many times.

    I think of the information we are hearing as a 3-sided venn diagram - Western narrative, Russo narrative and objective truth. How are we supposed to discern the intersection of the 3-sides when we aren't allowed to even entertain a differing explanation.

    Nearly all of the independent media has some nuance around the idea that the US could/should have done more to stop the war before it started. And a lot are so perplexed that they take it a step further, that the US wanted a war to break out. Given the ever escalating rhetoric from the Administration, it's not hard to believe this is the case.


    Getting back to Baud: In my view the compelling part of the story he has to tell is that it corroborates in much greater detail what fmr weapons inspector Scott Ritter and ret. Col Douglas Macgregor under Gen Wesley Clark at NATO, and academic John Mearsheimer have been saying the entire tim. Two of those three are US soldiers/officers who are very much still loyal to the US (despite smears).


    Anyway, that's a long winded way of saying there seems to be a lot more there then the US want's discussed, for whatever reasons.

    Further, this pervading idea that the US govt a would NEVER lie and we must fall in line behind their assertions just seems crazy in light of what's happened the last 6 years - and orders of magnitude more so the last 2.5.


    Admittedly I don't know enough about this conflict. But the one thing I do know, is I can not trust the us govt/msm apparatchik. So yeah, I'm going to turn to more independent sources to help understand what's going.





    *I may add on more in the morning when less tired
    The US government can be lying just the same as the Kremlin. Considering both sides doesn't necessarily get one any closer to the truth.

    The venn diagram can just be three separate circles after all.

    Occam's razor says this war is about 3 things.

    Ukraine's potential to become a gas competitor to Russia in Europe. (See previous Georgia invasion iirc)

    Russia vs. NATO proxy security dominoes.

    Russia's gross miscalculation that this would be a 3 day war where they would be greeted as liberators and able to setup a client state easily. (Typical of authoritarian regimes that live in an echo chamber)
    Obama had no trouble installing a puppet government in '14. Did we send them free Dominion voting machines?
  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,005
    Sledog said:

    pawz said:

    pawz said:

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine/

    https://www.thepostil.com/the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-an-update/


    Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine. He is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, in particular Le Détournement published by SIGEST, Gouverner par les fake news, L’affaire Navalny. His latest book is Poutine, maître du jeu? published by Max Milo.

    This article appears through the gracious courtesy of Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement, Paris. Translated from the French by N. Dass.




    A sober view.

    FYFMFE


    tldr






    @HoustonHusky @LoneStarDawg @UW_Doog_Bot @RatherBeBrewing @GrundleStiltzkin @RoadTrip

    Sorry not sorry reads like Kremlin primer.

    Glosses over essentially that little "invasion" of Crimea.

    Glosses over the little green men in Donbas since 2014? Ish. "Only 50 foreign fighters" sure.gif

    Putin is demilitarizing the Ukraine! Ok, so your invading a sovereign country to defeat its military. Pretty classic communist rebranding there.

    Maybe I didn't get to the good part but he took a long time getting there and at some point I've had my fill of rehashed Kremlin talking points.

    @RatherBeBrewing will probably be more willing and motivated to post a tequila style takedown.
    Not even worth my usual explanation. Mssr Baud is just a simple expert for hire, and his client is Russia. In fact, any of you can hire him to lend his resume to whatever you would like him to justify or distort - it’s not very difficult to find how.

    There’s no nice way to say this, but if anyone believes this assclown they are either very dim or are just looking for a source that confirms what they want to believe. I’m dumb for having read it, and even dumber for bothering to write the shit below.

    Look at Baud’s articles and interviews. Special military operation this, special military operation that. That’s to avoid Russia’s new laws, where you can’t call their invasion a war. That should be a dead giveaway every time.

    Denazification, Russian speaker genocide, THE Ukraine, speaking about the tiny parcels of two oblasts as if they are legitimate republics. Trying to explain the ass kicking in Kyiv as the original plan, and all those dead Russian soldiers are by design to spare civilians, instead of air strikes like the Western strategy. Although Russia has used more cruise missiles in two months than the United States has used in TOTAL in all conflicts in the last 30 years, but few people will check. Jesus, the use of MLRS like the Smerch (successor to the still in heavy use Uragan and Grad) with cluster munitions by both Russia and Ukraine is worse than air strikes for civilians by far.
    I've been sitting on this for a while because I wanted to collect my thoughts, and I'm busy af. Your point about referencing a "special military operation" is fair.

    The challenge I have - especially when trying to get to the bottom of what's going on - is the rote line we hear "Putin is invading a sovereign country!!" Why? "Because he's worse than Hitler!" What if I want to know more? "Putin apologist!!"

    After the Hunter Biden laptop story broke, we heard all about the 50 intelligence officers saying "it has the hallmarks of Russian disinformation!!" Well, frankly, the US Govt's explanation has all the hallmarks of every tim they've gas lit the American public the last 6 years - from Russiagate to Covid and many many parts in between.

    So how is this different? Given recent history, "Putin is evil" by itself is not a good enough explanation.

    When one searches for more substantive understanding, it's almost always castigated as Russian Misinformation. That might be true to some degree, but when we are not allowed to parse out fact from fiction, we are eternally where we started with the narrative makers stonewalling the conversation. It's happened here on this bored many times.

    I think of the information we are hearing as a 3-sided venn diagram - Western narrative, Russo narrative and objective truth. How are we supposed to discern the intersection of the 3-sides when we aren't allowed to even entertain a differing explanation.

    Nearly all of the independent media has some nuance around the idea that the US could/should have done more to stop the war before it started. And a lot are so perplexed that they take it a step further, that the US wanted a war to break out. Given the ever escalating rhetoric from the Administration, it's not hard to believe this is the case.


    Getting back to Baud: In my view the compelling part of the story he has to tell is that it corroborates in much greater detail what fmr weapons inspector Scott Ritter and ret. Col Douglas Macgregor under Gen Wesley Clark at NATO, and academic John Mearsheimer have been saying the entire tim. Two of those three are US soldiers/officers who are very much still loyal to the US (despite smears).


    Anyway, that's a long winded way of saying there seems to be a lot more there then the US want's discussed, for whatever reasons.

    Further, this pervading idea that the US govt a would NEVER lie and we must fall in line behind their assertions just seems crazy in light of what's happened the last 6 years - and orders of magnitude more so the last 2.5.


    Admittedly I don't know enough about this conflict. But the one thing I do know, is I can not trust the us govt/msm apparatchik. So yeah, I'm going to turn to more independent sources to help understand what's going.





    *I may add on more in the morning when less tired
    The US government can be lying just the same as the Kremlin. Considering both sides doesn't necessarily get one any closer to the truth.

    The venn diagram can just be three separate circles after all.

    Occam's razor says this war is about 3 things.

    Ukraine's potential to become a gas competitor to Russia in Europe. (See previous Georgia invasion iirc)

    Russia vs. NATO proxy security dominoes.

    Russia's gross miscalculation that this would be a 3 day war where they would be greeted as liberators and able to setup a client state easily. (Typical of authoritarian regimes that live in an echo chamber)
    Obama had no trouble installing a puppet government in '14. Did we send them free Dominion voting machines?
    Where do you think the test run originated?

  • 46XiJCAB
    46XiJCAB Member Posts: 20,967
    DIMS and GOP chickenhawks have already decided what the military solution is. American soldiers dying on the battlefield. GOP leaders better let it be known loud and clear that isn't gonna happen. Pelosi and crew visiting Ukraine was the camel's nose under the tent.
  • Swaye
    Swaye Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,738 Founders Club
  • TurdBomber
    TurdBomber Member Posts: 20,034 Standard Supporter
    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.
  • WestlinnDuck
    WestlinnDuck Member Posts: 17,534 Standard Supporter
    Very "religious" people from the West did a hell of a lot of conquering and killing and enslaving. I'm assuming a lot of Christians and Jews were involved in dropping a couple of nukes on Japan. I agree that the atheistic left/commies don't believe in individuals or God. Their religion is state control to achieve a mythical group utopia and a pile of dead people is just breaking some eggs to make an omelet. I also agree that without some moral bearing people do fail as they contemplate a purposeless life.

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

  • TurdBomber
    TurdBomber Member Posts: 20,034 Standard Supporter
    edited May 2022

    Very "religious" people from the West did a hell of a lot of conquering and killing and enslaving. I'm assuming a lot of Christians and Jews were involved in dropping a couple of nukes on Japan. I agree that the atheistic left/commies don't believe in individuals or God. Their religion is state control to achieve a mythical group utopia and a pile of dead people is just breaking some eggs to make an omelet. I also agree that without some moral bearing people do fail as they contemplate a purposeless life.

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

    I'm not certain whether this was a reality check by RBB or an endorsement of East Euro/former Soviet "toughness."

    Either way, I can't imagine such a thought process grinding in the minds of anyone with the least bit of optimism in their souls.

    To see others as cannon-fodder is one thing. To see or accept oneself in such a manner is grim AF.

    What's more, where or what is this fanciful "greater good" such thoughts would serve? I guess I'm just too "westernized" to reconcile it with anything useful.
  • WestlinnDuck
    WestlinnDuck Member Posts: 17,534 Standard Supporter

    Very "religious" people from the West did a hell of a lot of conquering and killing and enslaving. I'm assuming a lot of Christians and Jews were involved in dropping a couple of nukes on Japan. I agree that the atheistic left/commies don't believe in individuals or God. Their religion is state control to achieve a mythical group utopia and a pile of dead people is just breaking some eggs to make an omelet. I also agree that without some moral bearing people do fail as they contemplate a purposeless life.

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

    I'm not certain whether this was a reality check by RBB or an endorsement of East Euro/former Soviet "toughness."

    Either way, I can't imagine such a thought process grinding in the minds of anyone with the least bit of optimism in their souls.

    To see others as cannon-fodder is one thing. To see or accept oneself in such a manner is grim AF.

    What's more, where or what is this fanciful "greater good" such thoughts would serve? I guess I'm just too "westernized" to reconcile it with anything useful.
    Marx was a westerner. So was Ludwig Von Mises. The dichotomy of the state being supreme or the individual. The founders of our Republic chose the individual. The modern American left has chosen the state along with the RINOs.
  • RatherBeBrewing
    RatherBeBrewing Member Posts: 1,557

    Very "religious" people from the West did a hell of a lot of conquering and killing and enslaving. I'm assuming a lot of Christians and Jews were involved in dropping a couple of nukes on Japan. I agree that the atheistic left/commies don't believe in individuals or God. Their religion is state control to achieve a mythical group utopia and a pile of dead people is just breaking some eggs to make an omelet. I also agree that without some moral bearing people do fail as they contemplate a purposeless life.

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

    I'm not certain whether this was a reality check by RBB or an endorsement of East Euro/former Soviet "toughness."

    Either way, I can't imagine such a thought process grinding in the minds of anyone with the least bit of optimism in their souls.

    To see others as cannon-fodder is one thing. To see or accept oneself in such a manner is grim AF.

    What's more, where or what is this fanciful "greater good" such thoughts would serve? I guess I'm just too "westernized" to reconcile it with anything useful.
    Marx was a westerner. So was Ludwig Von Mises. The dichotomy of the state being supreme or the individual. The founders of our Republic chose the individual. The modern American left has chosen the state along with the RINOs.

  • RatherBeBrewing
    RatherBeBrewing Member Posts: 1,557

    "Death is acceptable and the European concept of minimal casualties is stupid. It’s a war, people will die, more people can be made, wars can’t be un-lost, we are tougher and willing to die."

    Is this the result of statist, non-religious indoctrination? Or another form of mass-psychosis? People in the west value life, although some lives more than others, for certain.

    But this theory is pointless and regards lives as inevitable, but meaningless and drab, it seems to me. Kind of explains the hopelessness and failure of the civilization from which it came.

    I can’t comment with certainty on whether it’s a philosophical/cultural difference. The collectivism vs individualism thing isn’t something starkly different. It’s surmised that in Russia and the rest of Asia it skews towards collectivist while in Europe more so towards an individualistic mindset or a hybrid of the two.

    The Russian mindset is often “we are suffering thus our cause is noble” instead of “our cause is noble thus we are willing to suffer” - I don’t understand it either.

    It manifests itself in things like Putin being the latest beloved tyrant in Russia’s history. In contrast to Ukraine, which has had six presidents post-USSR, and only one has been re-elected thus far.

    I just mentioned this because the OP article author Baud uses this as an excuses for Russia’s staggering troop losses. It’s an attempt to impress upon a Western audience that this is perfectly fine - Russia is willing to let those soldiers die because they’re not obsessed with the stats, they want to save civilians at their own expense.



    He’s full of shit on who killed more Afghanis, not worth even refuting, it’s just a pattern. It’s also a complete distortion of Soviet, and now Russian, military tactics. Which are destroy everything with artillery and then send in the good troops followed by the conscript slop poppers.
  • HoustonHusky
    HoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,999
    edited May 2022
    More fun with maps:


    The western half of Ukraine spent the last 8+ years attacking the eastern half and trying to mandate them to not to speak Russian...hell even Zelensky ran on a peace platform of stopping the attacks against people in Donbass and won a shite-ton of the vote. Then he went out East and tried to tell the Azov crowd they need to find a new line of work and they laughed in his face on National TV and said they weren't stopping and if he pulled any troops they would find 10x more. And he gave in, lost most of his internal support, and is now being forced by the West into a protracted war that is leaving his own people bearing the brunt of the pain and suffering all so the idiots in DC and the Raytheon crowd can think they are weakening Russia while they are really bankrupting Europe. I'm sure his banking accounts that were dug up in the Panama Papers are doing well though.

    BTW...surprised nobody commented on the dust-up in Germany a few days ago when they showed video of a few Azov fighters and they just happened to have some Nazi symbols...amazing how the media covers up some of this stuff...
  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,005
    I miss the old days when we made up excuses for wars and got cheap gas out of the deal.

  • pawz
    pawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 22,417 Founders Club

    I miss the old days when we made up excuses for wars and got cheap gas out of the deal.

    How old are you? RaceBannon old?
  • TurdBomber
    TurdBomber Member Posts: 20,034 Standard Supporter
    pawz said:

    I miss the old days when we made up excuses for wars and got cheap gas out of the deal.

    How old are you? RaceBannon old?
    Race played for Gil Dobie, I hear. Show some respect.