Numbers, math, facts, etc.
Comments
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I just shook hands for the first time since March
How many days do I have? -
I hope the shake was with your estate attorneyLoneStarDawg said:I just shook hands for the first time since March
How many days do I have? -
I shit you not, It was to witness the signing of my in-laws will.GrundleStiltzkin said:
I hope the shake was with your estate attorneyLoneStarDawg said:I just shook hands for the first time since March
How many days do I have? -
All well and good, but you ought to be getting you’re affairs in order.LoneStarDawg said:
I shit you not, It was to witness the signing of my in-laws will.GrundleStiltzkin said:
I hope the shake was with your estate attorneyLoneStarDawg said:I just shook hands for the first time since March
How many days do I have? -
Hadn't looked at this in a long tim. This is one of the primary modelers that run ourº lives. Go Dawgs!
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
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What that site is really lacking, from a decision making standpoont, is retrospective projected versus actual.
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Hopefully someone got all the screenshots they need.GrundleStiltzkin said:What that site is really lacking, from a decision making standpoont, is retrospective projected versus actual.
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Three weeks after newly identified COVID-19 cases began falling in the United States, The New York Times is acknowledging the downward trend, which it attributes to "effective restrictions." That explanation fits neatly with the paper's reflexive enthusiasm for lockdowns, but it does not fit the data very well.
Consider Arizona, where the seven-day average of daily new cases, according to Worldometer's tallies, rose more than tenfold between Memorial Day and July 7. Alarmed by that increase, Gov. Doug Ducey ordered gyms, bars, movie theaters, and water parks to close on July 23, while indoor dining in restaurants continued at 50 percent of capacity, a cap Ducey imposed on July 11. But the downward trend in new cases, which had fallen by 82 percent from the July 7 peak as of yesterday, began well before the new restrictions could have had a measurable impact (taking into account the typical five-day lag between infection and symptoms that might cause people to seek testing). That suggests other factors are at least partly responsible for the decline.
Newly confirmed cases are also falling in Georgia, which did not respond to this summer's spike with new business restrictions. The seven-day average, which rose fivefold between May 25 and July 29, has fallen by 35 percent since then.
In Texas, the seven-day average of newly identified cases rose tenfold between May 25 and July 15. It has since fallen by nearly half. Gov. Greg Abbott closed bars and reduced the cap on indoor dining from 75 percent to 50 percent of capacity on June 26. Yet cases continued rising for nearly three weeks, longer than the maximum incubation period. The story is similar in Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis closed bars the same day as Abbott. The seven-day average of daily new cases peaked three weeks later, when it was nearly 16 times higher than it was on May 25, then fell by two-thirds as of yesterday.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom closed bars, zoos, and museums on July 13, when he also banned indoor dining in restaurants. The seven-day average of daily new cases peaked 12 days later, when it was nearly five times the number on May 25, then fell for two weeks before rising again. The decline resumed in mid-August, and as of yesterday the average was down 42 percent from the July 25 peak. That pattern likewise does not easily fit the hypothesis that new legal restrictions account for most or all of the decline.
California's restrictions, including a total ban on indoor dining, are more severe than the statewide limits in Arizona, Florida, or Texas, which enforce a 50 percent cap. Yet the latter three states have seen bigger declines in confirmed cases, although they also saw bigger increases in June and July.What about face mask mandates? Even if businesses were already requiring customers to wear masks, a legal requirement could help reduce disputes about those policies and increase compliance. Yet Newsom mandated masks in California on June 18, more than a month before new cases peaked in that state, while Abbott followed suit in Texas on July 2, nearly two weeks before that state's peak. Neither Arizona, Florida, nor Georgia has a statewide mask requirement, although some local governments in those states have imposed their own mandates.
"Of the states that are driving the decrease" in new cases, the Times says, "all have at least some local mask mandates, and most have paused or reversed statewide reopening policies." That gloss, which dismisses the absence of statewide mask mandates, elides the difference between imposing restrictions and delaying their removal, and ignores the states without new restrictions, makes the Times seem desperate to credit government policies for positive trends that ultimately depend on how people decide to behave. -
projection site mentioned in the article
https://covid19-projections.com/us
Not as grim as the UW guysm, but not great either.
Equals a mortality rate around 0.3% -
Grundle, what's your basic assessment of where we stand today? Can we even compare where we are as a country to the rest of the world? Wouldn't you say the actual infection # is significantly higher in reality thus the mortality rate is considerably lower than .3?
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I don't know shit.RoadTrip said:Grundle, what's your basic assessment of where we stand today? Can we even compare where we are as a country to the rest of the world? Wouldn't you say the actual infection # is significantly higher in reality thus the mortality rate is considerably lower than .3?
I'd assumed exposure and infection back in March was much higher than numbers now available bear out. A national infection rate of around 15% seems consistent between various sources I've seen, higher of course in hot spots. A 0.3% fatality rate, while orders of magnitude better than the original grims of 2% or more, is still pretty bad, quite honestly. That number also jives with the earliest, most optimistic predictions. I think that Stanford guy had it around 0.25%.
I've plowed through a bunch of books on Spanish Flu and influenza-like pandemics in the last several books. None since and including SpanFlu were halted by a vaccine. Best info I could find on SARS was that vaccine trials were halted in 2012, nine years after the epidemic. If someone has better info, pleased to beings shown to be wrong. Of course, the medical industry has advanced a lot in 17 years. Still, I'm pessimistic on the prospects for a highly effective vaccine, and unfortunately, mainstream messaging has pegged reopening to a vaccine.
A common thread on the last pandemics, they just stop at some point. They run a certain course and then recede to a background disease, except for the particular SpanFlu strain, which disappeared. If I remember correctly, Philadelphia went from apocalyptic numbers to next to nothing over the course of around 2-3 weeks.
One prediction I still stand behind, is that eventually some pre-existing resistance, or vulnerability, will be found on this one. Genetic, crossover immunity, the Vitamin D thing, or something else all together. Best case would be Vitamin D, that is actionable. The rest is roll of the dice. -
Thanks
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I've thought about that too.
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“Fist-her-bottom” is your source?GrundleStiltzkin said:I've thought about that too.
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Not entirely sure how to read this chart or how he's massaged data. -
He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
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Every Friday I get a pep talk from my wife before entering the grocery store. The two arguments we have got in at the store over the months were both started by her. We're on our third store. All good. The mask doesn't bother her but the bags do. A lot. They won't bag if you bring reusable in which is what they want because Cali charges for new bags every week. She pointed out that they were all over our groceries so put them in the damn bag. Two tellers ended up arguing with her at which point I said - the proper response would have been to nod your head and agree and go on with your business. (I've been married 35 years) not double up and start yelling.theknowledge said:He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
For that our 300 bucks a week goes elsewhere -
Yeah, I think you might have something there. TES has included some borderline conspiracy accusations for a while, but grown more explicit.theknowledge said:He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
Then there's Berenson, who's become increasingly more shrill and ad hominem to people who disagree with him. He still bring some value but must filter more. -
@RoadTrip re some pre-existing immunity or resistance. Read the whole thread, take it as one input among many.
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I think the more they look the more it appears inescapable that a hidden hand is in playGrundleStiltzkin said:
Yeah, I think you might have something there. TES has included some borderline conspiracy accusations for a while, but grown more explicit.theknowledge said:He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
Then there's Berenson, who's become increasingly more shrill and ad hominem to people who disagree with him. He still bring some value but must filter more.
Not saying it is, just saying the more you look at this and realize we ARE STILL LOCKED DOWN, the more you wonder -
I'm saying it is and have been since the beginning.RaceBannon said:
I think the more they look the more it appears inescapable that a hidden hand is in playGrundleStiltzkin said:
Yeah, I think you might have something there. TES has included some borderline conspiracy accusations for a while, but grown more explicit.theknowledge said:He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
Then there's Berenson, who's become increasingly more shrill and ad hominem to people who disagree with him. He still bring some value but must filter more.
Not saying it is, just saying the more you look at this and realize we ARE STILL LOCKED DOWN, the more you wonder -
Probably should have had them do yours after that shakeLoneStarDawg said:
I shit you not, It was to witness the signing of my in-laws will.GrundleStiltzkin said:
I hope the shake was with your estate attorneyLoneStarDawg said:I just shook hands for the first time since March
How many days do I have? -
As I was saying...GrundleStiltzkin said:
Yeah, I think you might have something there. TES has included some borderline conspiracy accusations for a while, but grown more explicit.theknowledge said:He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
Then there's Berenson, who's become increasingly more shrill and ad hominem to people who disagree with him. He still bring some value but must filter more.
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We were right, you and IGrundleStiltzkin said:I. Was. Right.
https://kval.com/news/local/covid-19-spread-in-hermiston-found-by-trace-program-justifies-worries
17%, in a low density Hermiston. No one's on a subway there.
This should be cause for optimism, not fear.
Found HHusky
I did the same as Gundle. That’s why we were right.GrundleStiltzkin said:
I don't know shit.RoadTrip said:Grundle, what's your basic assessment of where we stand today? Can we even compare where we are as a country to the rest of the world? Wouldn't you say the actual infection # is significantly higher in reality thus the mortality rate is considerably lower than .3?
I'd assumed exposure and infection back in March was much higher than numbers now available bear out. A national infection rate of around 15% seems consistent between various sources I've seen, higher of course in hot spots. A 0.3% fatality rate, while orders of magnitude better than the original grims of 2% or more, is still pretty bad, quite honestly. That number also jives with the earliest, most optimistic predictions. I think that Stanford guy had it around 0.25%.
I've plowed through a bunch of books on Spanish Flu and influenza-like pandemics in the last several books. None since and including SpanFlu were halted by a vaccine. Best info I could find on SARS was that vaccine trials were halted in 2012, nine years after the epidemic. If someone has better info, pleased to beings shown to be wrong. Of course, the medical industry has advanced a lot in 17 years. Still, I'm pessimistic on the prospects for a highly effective vaccine, and unfortunately, mainstream messaging has pegged reopening to a vaccine.
A common thread on the last pandemics, they just stop at some point. They run a certain course and then recede to a background disease, except for the particular SpanFlu strain, which disappeared. If I remember correctly, Philadelphia went from apocalyptic numbers to next to nothing over the course of around 2-3 weeks.
One prediction I still stand behind, is that eventually some pre-existing resistance, or vulnerability, will be found on this one. Genetic, crossover immunity, the Vitamin D thing, or something else all together. Best case would be Vitamin D, that is actionable. The rest is roll of the dice. -
Shit, I forgot about hermiston. Have the Antelope reclaimed the town yet?
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I pretty much do nothing. Wear a gaiter mask, which does nothing, when I’m required to have a mask. I take it off the second Karen can’t yell at me. I go to the gym we’re no one gives a fuck. 20-30 people, no masks or any serious attempt to distance. Ive never been a big hand washer unless I have shit or something obvious that needs to be cleaned (I don’t wash when i pee, why? My cock is the cleanest part on my body). I get a flu shot, it’s free and takes 8 minutes.RaceBannon said:
Every Friday I get a pep talk from my wife before entering the grocery store. The two arguments we have got in at the store over the months were both started by her. We're on our third store. All good. The mask doesn't bother her but the bags do. A lot. They won't bag if you bring reusable in which is what they want because Cali charges for new bags every week. She pointed out that they were all over our groceries so put them in the damn bag. Two tellers ended up arguing with her at which point I said - the proper response would have been to nod your head and agree and go on with your business. (I've been married 35 years) not double up and start yelling.theknowledge said:He's gone from ethical to Covid Crazy. As evidence mounts in one direction and the actions taken by those in power are pulling in the opposite direction it messes with ones mind causing one to lash out. This is something I see at the grocery store. Usually one or two blow ups is all a person needs to purge the madness and then numbness sets in. Someone who was vocal and obstinate one day will go out and buy a mask that says "This mask is as useless as our Governor" or a shirt that says "The only thing non essential in Washington is Jay Inslee" and do their shopping in silence. They are done. His charts will be ethical again in a few days. Covid Crazy is a real thing. I've had it and survived.
#comfortablynumb
For that our 300 bucks a week goes elsewhere
The hysteria about “staying safe” is absurd. Proven by stats to date.
Grundle and I were right.
