Numbers, math, facts, etc.
Comments
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Good stuff @LesGrossmanLesGrossman said:So I decided to spend some time entering my county's (Orange County) data and looking at the numbers myself...
Fuck these guysm. They reported another 31 deaths today. If you look at their trend lines, the death rate is going up (dotted red line below).
However:
To date, when looking at the "Date of Death", there hasn't been a single day over 15 deaths (tallest blue spike below). In fact, in their "Death Report Date" numbers, they've reported TEN daily totals that are higher than our max (15) number of people that died on any particular date.
When you look at the "Date of Death", our numbers actually peaked around 7/8.
Using Orange County Covid 19 Dashboard (Deaths Tab), the Blue series below is actual "Date of Death"
Using The Global Covid 19 Tracker, (filtered down to CA and OC, which match the deaths by "Death Report Date" that the county has been reporting) the Red series is "Death Report Date"
Both sets of data total 697 deaths, which is our county's total.
A 3-7 day rolling average would help filter some of the peaks and valleys that only occur due to administrative constraints. Backlogged peaks are really good at tricking humans into trends.
Also a third aspect on the graph, plotting the average delay in “date of death” to “reported date of death” for each specific date might yield something interesting. -
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
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Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
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Right. Government is so incompetent that it can only accomplish (and keep secret) vast conspiracies requiring massive numbers of people and extraordinary coordination.PurpleThrobber said:
Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
ES is quite the "skeptic". -
Not as skeptical as this board is about your legal credentials, Dazzler.HHusky said:
Right. Government is so incompetent that it can only accomplish (and keep secret) vast conspiracies requiring massive numbers of people and extraordinary coordination.PurpleThrobber said:
Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
ES is quite the "skeptic".
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So white flag. Cool!PurpleThrobber said:
Not as skeptical as this board is about your legal credentials, Dazzler.HHusky said:
Right. Government is so incompetent that it can only accomplish (and keep secret) vast conspiracies requiring massive numbers of people and extraordinary coordination.PurpleThrobber said:
Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
ES is quite the "skeptic". -
I guess government can only keep vast conspiracies when it involves the WH and Iraqi WMDs or Russian hooker pee tapes....HHusky said:
Right. Government is so incompetent that it can only accomplish (and keep secret) vast conspiracies requiring massive numbers of people and extraordinary coordination.PurpleThrobber said:
Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
ES is quite the "skeptic". -
Incoherent, but you're so likeable.thechatch said:
I guess government can only keep vast conspiracies when it involves the WH and Iraqi WMDs or Russian hooker pee tapes....HHusky said:
Right. Government is so incompetent that it can only accomplish (and keep secret) vast conspiracies requiring massive numbers of people and extraordinary coordination.PurpleThrobber said:
Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
ES is quite the "skeptic". -
HH is your typical low level atty. You might hire him to get your kid out of a speeding ticket, but that’s about it.
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So back to me.thechatch said:HH is your typical low level atty. You might hire him to get your kid out of a speeding ticket, but that’s about it.
I approve of the subject even if I quarrel with the opinion. -
I am EXTREMELY hateable, actually. But, somehow, less so than you.HHusky said:
Incoherent, but you're so likeable.thechatch said:
I guess government can only keep vast conspiracies when it involves the WH and Iraqi WMDs or Russian hooker pee tapes....HHusky said:
Right. Government is so incompetent that it can only accomplish (and keep secret) vast conspiracies requiring massive numbers of people and extraordinary coordination.PurpleThrobber said:
Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
ES is quite the "skeptic".
Here’s your ribbon. -
Somewhat chinteresing.
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Do you have facts to prove ES wrong? Or do just continue to make shit up?HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right. -
I’m pretty sure HH can’t understand a single ES twatMikeDamone said:
Do you have facts to prove ES wrong? Or do just continue to make shit up?HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right. -
Say whatever you want about @HHusky but it we’re going to bash people who can’t understand @TheEthicalSkeptic, I am OUT.LoneStarDawg said:
I’m pretty sure HH can’t understand a single ES twatMikeDamone said:
Do you have facts to prove ES wrong? Or do just continue to make shit up?HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right. -
The government actually tried to say Trump was a Russian agent, Lionel. That’s never been proven so fuck off from people like me who don’t trust your government.HHusky said:
Right. Government is so incompetent that it can only accomplish (and keep secret) vast conspiracies requiring massive numbers of people and extraordinary coordination.PurpleThrobber said:
Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
ES is quite the "skeptic". -
Worth a full thread read
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Why elected officials aren’t handing consulting contracts, I’ll never know
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/graham-sunday-morning-futures-fbi-senate-intelligence-steeleHHusky said:
Right. Government is so incompetent that it can only accomplish (and keep secret) vast conspiracies requiring massive numbers of people and extraordinary coordination.PurpleThrobber said:
Just the opposite in fact, Dazzler.HHusky said:
ES = Kevin BaconMikeDamone said:
Pretty sure HHusky doesn’t read, or want to read the Ethical Skeptic feed. He just likes to spout CNN talking points.GrundleStiltzkin said:
You and I were right.
ES is saying NOT all is well - it's fucked the government and state health agencies have cooked the books.
ES is quite the "skeptic".
Yeah keep them and lie about them. -
I’ve wondered a tim or two whether this was elaborate social media performance art. Is that cynical or skeptical? I never can tell. -
I heard the Vid was racist - but here is Washington it is a privilege to have the Vid
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard
only true if you are a non-hispanic white person -
What is with all this non-Hispanic shit these days? Some one 'splain that to dumb ass me.LebamDawg said:I heard the Vid was racist - but here is Washington it is a privilege to have the Vid
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard
only true if you are a non-hispanic white person -
Your white privilege is what’s blinding you. While someone could explain it to you, rather easily I might add, you are incapable of understanding.
Not your fault, don’t twist. -
No one can explain that shit!doogie said:Your white privilege is what’s blinding you. While someone could explain it to you, rather easily I might add, you are incapable of understanding.
Not your fault, don’t twist. -
Like I said...
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it is easy, in Washington State they want no hispanics slipping thru the cracks. To do that all minorities must have two classifications: Hispanic __________ and Non-Hispanic ___________ (fill in the blanks with the appropriate label))
Edit: this will also be applied to genders, occupations, sex, etc. -
Thanks -- I updated the numbers today from the weekend and created a 7 day rolling average chart:Houhusky said:
Good stuff @LesGrossmanLesGrossman said:So I decided to spend some time entering my county's (Orange County) data and looking at the numbers myself...
Fuck these guysm. They reported another 31 deaths today. If you look at their trend lines, the death rate is going up (dotted red line below).
However:
To date, when looking at the "Date of Death", there hasn't been a single day over 15 deaths (tallest blue spike below). In fact, in their "Death Report Date" numbers, they've reported TEN daily totals that are higher than our max (15) number of people that died on any particular date.
When you look at the "Date of Death", our numbers actually peaked around 7/8.
Using Orange County Covid 19 Dashboard (Deaths Tab), the Blue series below is actual "Date of Death"
Using The Global Covid 19 Tracker, (filtered down to CA and OC, which match the deaths by "Death Report Date" that the county has been reporting) the Red series is "Death Report Date"
Both sets of data total 697 deaths, which is our county's total.
A 3-7 day rolling average would help filter some of the peaks and valleys that only occur due to administrative constraints. Backlogged peaks are really good at tricking humans into trends.
Also a third aspect on the graph, plotting the average delay in “date of death” to “reported date of death” for each specific date might yield something interesting.
The peak still appears to have happened around 7/9.
Over the last 3 days, they have added 29 new deaths (Reported Deaths) -- 7 on 8/7, 16 on 8/8, and 6 on 8/9.
Of these, for 12 of them the "Date of Death" was over 7 days ago, and 4 were over 21 days ago.
They have "Reported Deaths" of 73! in the last 5 days, meanwhile, the last 9 "Date of Death" days reported have averaged 3.4/day.
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You've forgotten that George Zimmerman started a new Race called White Hispanic.Sledog said:
No one can explain that shit!doogie said:Your white privilege is what’s blinding you. While someone could explain it to you, rather easily I might add, you are incapable of understanding.
Not your fault, don’t twist.
Ooh, ooh, and here, let me get a little rayciss and explain it Joe Biden style: You need to say "White Hispanic" because brown hispanics never shoot black people, and vice versa.
Narrative Conformity is the Highest Calling.
