This is what I figure barring any health/marriage issues.
Recruit a culture-changing class in next '20/'21, give 3-4 years for fruition ... check results for 3-4 years.
If win something significant (like a natty) then I can see Peterman retiring sooner than later.
That's ~ 2 more years, minimum, of highest-end recruiting plus development and evaluation and we're looking at 8-10 years or so and beyond.
Petersen will be 62-64 yrs old by then.
For reference, Saban is currently 67 yrs old.
I can also see Jimmy No Balls sticking around for another 3-4 yrs, if not 5-6 yrs or more to (1) further build his rep as a talent evaluator and developer for college and NFL success (2) enjoy the success at UW which is kinda underrated (3) see how far their progress goes which will determine his future coaching options.
At their level the money is pretty good. Chasing a college HC gig for money's sake I don't think is high on their radar as other factors.
Jimmy is never leaving and he'll be the head coach after Petersen.
This is the doogliest of takes but fuck anyone here that's not fulldoogpraying for this on some level.
Nah I don't want another Lambo. Hire the career assistant almost never works. Let him leave in a couple years, learn what he's doing for a few years then come back in 2028 or so as an established coach to take back over.
I love Lake as much as anyone but I want a proven HC after Petersen, not a guy who never even built his own defense. Lake has a lot to prove before we hand him the keys.
To clarify *promote* the career assistant almost never works.
You can probably through Riley in there as well if he ever figures out defense.
To be honest though...most every coaching hire doesn't work. There are only a few elite coaches, and everyone else is cycling through potentials every 3-7 years (average tenure is something like 3.8 years) in hopes of hitting one. I don't know that one method is any more likely to hit than another, but I do think Jimmy has more potential to be a great head coach over most of the younger coaches out on the West Coast (Harsin, Wells, Wilcox)...and if keeping him on staff as the assistant/eventual assistant HC guarantees we get him over the others as the next guy 8 or so years down the road I'm good with that.
Dabo and Riley aren't examples of career assistants.
Dabo was an assistant for 15 years when he took over Clemson. Riley was an assistant for 13 years. They were risers who moved up fairly quickly (Riley more than Dabo) and got their opportunity within a decade and a half.
Let's say Grundle is right and Pete only has five more years left (I think he has more than that). That means we are hiring a new HC for the 2024 season. Lake would have 25 years of experience as an assistant by that point, which puts him even with Lambright when he took over UW. Most likely by the time Pete leave Lake would have been an assistant for longer than Lambo before ascending to the HC role.
The general rule is if a guy isn't good enough to be given an HC job in their first 25 years they probably aren't good enough.
I think Lake would be much better than Lambo for a couple of reasons - he's more of a players coach, his recruiting is top notch, and he hasn't spent his entire career at one school. There's some reason to think that he could work. I'd be much more optimistic if he went somewhere else as HC first though.
This is so fucking stupid.
1. Everybody is an assistant before they're a head coach you moron. Being an assistant coach longer doesn't make you a worse head coaching candidate. More experience is better. He's also been turning down head coaching opportunities. Does turning down head coaching jobs now mean he's gonna be a worse head coach later? No.
2. Jimmy is not Lambo. They are two completely different people and coaches. There is no correlation between them. That's a bullshit comparison. Why even bring up Lambo's name if you think "Jimmy would be a much better head coach"? It's pointless.
3. If Jimmy were to leave to be a head coach elsewhere he's gonna kill it. He's a great coach and great recruiter. The chances of him being a bad head coach are minuscule. What the fuck makes you think he's automatically gonna be a lock to come back to be our head coach post-Petersen if he's already busted his ass to make some other program nationally relevant again? You think Dabo is a lock to go back to Bama when Saban finally retires? I don't. I think he's found his own place that he loves and can say he built himself and can obviously have a dynasty of his own there so there's no reason to leave. If Jimmy is USC's head coach in 2020 and builds them back to national title contenders, he ain't coming back.
4. How many other head coaching candidates would have a complete and total understanding of what has been built at UW by Petersen, the OKG/Built for Life process, and be able to replicate it? You really want to roll the dice on some other coach who's possibly gonna fuck all that up just because Jimmy might not have head coaching experience when Petersen retires?
5. Same thing goes for the rest of the coaching staff, some of which want to be here for the rest of their careers. You wanna get rid of Malloe and his baller ass Poly recruiting and coaching, Coach K and his defensive mind, Huff and his recruiting and coaching? If Jimmy's the next head coach, those guys stay here and the good times keep rolling. Or you bring in a new head coach who wants his own staff, most if not all of our assistants go to join Jimmy's staff at USC or wherever he is and it's a colossal fuck up because if that new head coach isn't a home run hire (which isn't likely), UW is then getting beat by their old coaching staff, a staff they should still have, and back to mediocrity we go.
I'm not into rolling the dice on some outsider and cleaning house when you could just have a guy lined up who is 99% likely to be a great head coach and would keep the staff together and the winning culture intact. Jimmy is a fucking winner. All he does is win. He should be made associate head coach and given another raise and his next contract with UW should guarantee him the head coaching job post-Petersen. That's what a great AD would do. We got a special thing going here people. It cannot be torn down and fucked up post-Petersen! Jimmy will be our next head coach. That is going to happen. I trust Jen will get it done.
Jimmy is never leaving and he'll be the head coach after Petersen.
This is the doogliest of takes but fuck anyone here that's not fulldoogpraying for this on some level.
Nah I don't want another Lambo. Hire the career assistant almost never works. Let him leave in a couple years, learn what he's doing for a few years then come back in 2028 or so as an established coach to take back over.
I love Lake as much as anyone but I want a proven HC after Petersen, not a guy who never even built his own defense. Lake has a lot to prove before we hand him the keys.
To clarify *promote* the career assistant almost never works.
You can probably through Riley in there as well if he ever figures out defense.
To be honest though...most every coaching hire doesn't work. There are only a few elite coaches, and everyone else is cycling through potentials every 3-7 years (average tenure is something like 3.8 years) in hopes of hitting one. I don't know that one method is any more likely to hit than another, but I do think Jimmy has more potential to be a great head coach over most of the younger coaches out on the West Coast (Harsin, Wells, Wilcox)...and if keeping him on staff as the assistant/eventual assistant HC guarantees we get him over the others as the next guy 8 or so years down the road I'm good with that.
Dabo and Riley aren't examples of career assistants.
Dabo was an assistant for 15 years when he took over Clemson. Riley was an assistant for 13 years. They were risers who moved up fairly quickly (Riley more than Dabo) and got their opportunity within a decade and a half.
Let's say Grundle is right and Pete only has five more years left (I think he has more than that). That means we are hiring a new HC for the 2024 season. Lake would have 25 years of experience as an assistant by that point, which puts him even with Lambright when he took over UW. Most likely by the time Pete leave Lake would have been an assistant for longer than Lambo before ascending to the HC role.
The general rule is if a guy isn't good enough to be given an HC job in their first 25 years they probably aren't good enough.
I think Lake would be much better than Lambo for a couple of reasons - he's more of a players coach, his recruiting is top notch, and he hasn't spent his entire career at one school. There's some reason to think that he could work. I'd be much more optimistic if he went somewhere else as HC first though.
This is so fucking stupid.
1. Everybody is an assistant before they're a head coach you moron. Being an assistant coach longer doesn't make you a worse head coaching candidate. More experience is better. He's also been turning down head coaching opportunities. Does turning down head coaching jobs now mean he's gonna be a worse head coach later? No.
2. Jimmy is not Lambo. They are two completely different people and coaches. There is no correlation between them. That's a bullshit comparison. Why even bring up Lambo's name if you think "Jimmy would be a much better head coach"? It's pointless.
3. If Jimmy were to leave to be a head coach elsewhere he's gonna kill it. He's a great coach and great recruiter. The chances of him being a bad head coach are minuscule. What the fuck makes you think he's automatically gonna be a lock to come back to be our head coach post-Petersen if he's already busted his ass to make some other program nationally relevant again? You think Dabo is a lock to go back to Bama when Saban finally retires? I don't. I think he's found his own place that he loves and can say he built himself and can obviously have a dynasty of his own there so there's no reason to leave. If Jimmy is USC's head coach in 2020 and builds them back to national title contenders, he ain't coming back.
4. How many other head coaching candidates would have a complete and total understanding of what has been built at UW by Petersen, the OKG/Built for Life process, and be able to replicate it? You really want to roll the dice on some other coach who's possibly gonna fuck all that up just because Jimmy might not have head coaching experience when Petersen retires?
5. Same thing goes for the rest of the coaching staff, some of which want to be here for the rest of their careers. You wanna get rid of Malloe and his baller ass Poly recruiting and coaching, Coach K and his defensive mind, Huff and his recruiting and coaching? If Jimmy's the next head coach, those guys stay here and the good times keep rolling. Or you bring in a new head coach who wants his own staff, most if not all of our assistants go to join Jimmy's staff at USC or wherever he is and it's a colossal fuck up because if that new head coach isn't a home run hire (which isn't likely), UW is then getting beat by their old coaching staff, a staff they should still have, and back to mediocrity we go.
I'm not into rolling the dice on some outsider and cleaning house when you could just have a guy lined up who is 99% likely to be a great head coach and would keep the staff together and the winning culture intact. Jimmy is a fucking winner. All he does is win. He should be made associate head coach and given another raise and his next contract with UW should guarantee him the head coaching job post-Petersen. That's what a great AD would do. We got a special thing going here people. It cannot be torn down and fucked up post-Petersen! Jimmy will be our next head coach. That is going to happen. I trust Jen will get it done.
Jimmy is never leaving and he'll be the head coach after Petersen.
This is the doogliest of takes but fuck anyone here that's not fulldoogpraying for this on some level.
Nah I don't want another Lambo. Hire the career assistant almost never works. Let him leave in a couple years, learn what he's doing for a few years then come back in 2028 or so as an established coach to take back over.
I love Lake as much as anyone but I want a proven HC after Petersen, not a guy who never even built his own defense. Lake has a lot to prove before we hand him the keys.
To clarify *promote* the career assistant almost never works.
You can probably through Riley in there as well if he ever figures out defense.
To be honest though...most every coaching hire doesn't work. There are only a few elite coaches, and everyone else is cycling through potentials every 3-7 years (average tenure is something like 3.8 years) in hopes of hitting one. I don't know that one method is any more likely to hit than another, but I do think Jimmy has more potential to be a great head coach over most of the younger coaches out on the West Coast (Harsin, Wells, Wilcox)...and if keeping him on staff as the assistant/eventual assistant HC guarantees we get him over the others as the next guy 8 or so years down the road I'm good with that.
Dabo and Riley aren't examples of career assistants.
Dabo was an assistant for 15 years when he took over Clemson. Riley was an assistant for 13 years. They were risers who moved up fairly quickly (Riley more than Dabo) and got their opportunity within a decade and a half.
Let's say Grundle is right and Pete only has five more years left (I think he has more than that). That means we are hiring a new HC for the 2024 season. Lake would have 25 years of experience as an assistant by that point, which puts him even with Lambright when he took over UW. Most likely by the time Pete leave Lake would have been an assistant for longer than Lambo before ascending to the HC role.
The general rule is if a guy isn't good enough to be given an HC job in their first 25 years they probably aren't good enough.
I think Lake would be much better than Lambo for a couple of reasons - he's more of a players coach, his recruiting is top notch, and he hasn't spent his entire career at one school. There's some reason to think that he could work. I'd be much more optimistic if he went somewhere else as HC first though.
This is so fucking stupid.
1. Everybody is an assistant before they're a head coach you moron. Being an assistant coach longer doesn't make you a worse head coaching candidate. More experience is better. He's also been turning down head coaching opportunities. Does turning down head coaching jobs now mean he's gonna be a worse head coach later? No.
2. Jimmy is not Lambo. They are two completely different people and coaches. There is no correlation between them. That's a bullshit comparison. Why even bring up Lambo's name if you think "Jimmy would be a much better head coach"? It's pointless.
3. If Jimmy were to leave to be a head coach elsewhere he's gonna kill it. He's a great coach and great recruiter. The chances of him being a bad head coach are minuscule. What the fuck makes you think he's automatically gonna be a lock to come back to be our head coach post-Petersen if he's already busted his ass to make some other program nationally relevant again? You think Dabo is a lock to go back to Bama when Saban finally retires? I don't. I think he's found his own place that he loves and can say he built himself and can obviously have a dynasty of his own there so there's no reason to leave. If Jimmy is USC's head coach in 2020 and builds them back to national title contenders, he ain't coming back.
4. How many other head coaching candidates would have a complete and total understanding of what has been built at UW by Petersen, the OKG/Built for Life process, and be able to replicate it? You really want to roll the dice on some other coach who's possibly gonna fuck all that up just because Jimmy might not have head coaching experience when Petersen retires?
5. Same thing goes for the rest of the coaching staff, some of which want to be here for the rest of their careers. You wanna get rid of Malloe and his baller ass Poly recruiting and coaching, Coach K and his defensive mind, Huff and his recruiting and coaching? If Jimmy's the next head coach, those guys stay here and the good times keep rolling. Or you bring in a new head coach who wants his own staff, most if not all of our assistants go to join Jimmy's staff at USC or wherever he is and it's a colossal fuck up because if that new head coach isn't a home run hire (which isn't likely), UW is then getting beat by their old coaching staff, a staff they should still have, and back to mediocrity we go.
I'm not into rolling the dice on some outsider and cleaning house when you could just have a guy lined up who is 99% likely to be a great head coach and would keep the staff together and the winning culture intact. Jimmy is a fucking winner. All he does is win. He should be made associate head coach and given another raise and his next contract with UW should guarantee him the head coaching job post-Petersen. That's what a great AD would do. We got a special thing going here people. It cannot be torn down and fucked up post-Petersen! Jimmy will be our next head coach. That is going to happen. I trust Jen will get it done.
Disagree.
CFB is—has been—littered with once highly esteemed assistants who have crashed and burned as head coaches. Look no further than Lambo and Gilby. Karl Durrell. Norm Chow. Lane Kiffen. Will Muschamp (highly coveted by many Doogs during the Ty replacement search) This list goes on and on.
Lake isn’t hanging around for the succession plan. He just won’t. He’s ambitious; has shown a penchant for seeking higher salaries and—regarldless of who schemes and called X & O’s—piloted a top-5 defense in his first year as DC. Ace recruiter. Peterman disciple. That Dawg hunts. it’s doesn’t , however , guarantee success as a HC. Ten years ago Texas stepped up for then DC and recruiting ace Muschamp. 3 years; $1.7M. per, and a splashy title “Head Coach in Waiting”. He left anyway followed by a crash and burn at Fleurida
Jimmy’s gone after 2019 (screenshot this). SC. Oregon. Auburn? When he leaves—if he leaves—there is no guarantee he returns.
From a $$$ standpoint Lake has been priced out of anything that isn’t s P5 job
Due to geography, he’s probably not as realistic of a hire in some conferences vs others
Bottom tier P5 jobs may not be viewed as overly attractive as there is a ton of risk in them and the pay often isn’t anything special
High end P5 jobs (not named Washington) will likely pursue higher caliber/experienced candidates ... while Lake at SC could be really good ... the odds are that SC would never take the leap with him and prefer someone in their family because that’s what they do
So by my count there are probably only a handful of jobs that are realistic and a number of them have just been filled in the last year or two
At this point, Lake would have to be the favorite to be the next HC at Washington ... now whether that % is over 20-25% is a completely different question
Jimmy is never leaving and he'll be the head coach after Petersen.
This is the doogliest of takes but fuck anyone here that's not fulldoogpraying for this on some level.
Nah I don't want another Lambo. Hire the career assistant almost never works. Let him leave in a couple years, learn what he's doing for a few years then come back in 2028 or so as an established coach to take back over.
I love Lake as much as anyone but I want a proven HC after Petersen, not a guy who never even built his own defense. Lake has a lot to prove before we hand him the keys.
To clarify *promote* the career assistant almost never works.
You can probably through Riley in there as well if he ever figures out defense.
To be honest though...most every coaching hire doesn't work. There are only a few elite coaches, and everyone else is cycling through potentials every 3-7 years (average tenure is something like 3.8 years) in hopes of hitting one. I don't know that one method is any more likely to hit than another, but I do think Jimmy has more potential to be a great head coach over most of the younger coaches out on the West Coast (Harsin, Wells, Wilcox)...and if keeping him on staff as the assistant/eventual assistant HC guarantees we get him over the others as the next guy 8 or so years down the road I'm good with that.
Dabo and Riley aren't examples of career assistants.
Dabo was an assistant for 15 years when he took over Clemson. Riley was an assistant for 13 years. They were risers who moved up fairly quickly (Riley more than Dabo) and got their opportunity within a decade and a half.
Let's say Grundle is right and Pete only has five more years left (I think he has more than that). That means we are hiring a new HC for the 2024 season. Lake would have 25 years of experience as an assistant by that point, which puts him even with Lambright when he took over UW. Most likely by the time Pete leave Lake would have been an assistant for longer than Lambo before ascending to the HC role.
The general rule is if a guy isn't good enough to be given an HC job in their first 25 years they probably aren't good enough.
I think Lake would be much better than Lambo for a couple of reasons - he's more of a players coach, his recruiting is top notch, and he hasn't spent his entire career at one school. There's some reason to think that he could work. I'd be much more optimistic if he went somewhere else as HC first though.
This is so fucking stupid.
1. Everybody is an assistant before they're a head coach you moron. Being an assistant coach longer doesn't make you a worse head coaching candidate. More experience is better. He's also been turning down head coaching opportunities. Does turning down head coaching jobs now mean he's gonna be a worse head coach later? No.
2. Jimmy is not Lambo. They are two completely different people and coaches. There is no correlation between them. That's a bullshit comparison. Why even bring up Lambo's name if you think "Jimmy would be a much better head coach"? It's pointless.
3. If Jimmy were to leave to be a head coach elsewhere he's gonna kill it. He's a great coach and great recruiter. The chances of him being a bad head coach are minuscule. What the fuck makes you think he's automatically gonna be a lock to come back to be our head coach post-Petersen if he's already busted his ass to make some other program nationally relevant again? You think Dabo is a lock to go back to Bama when Saban finally retires? I don't. I think he's found his own place that he loves and can say he built himself and can obviously have a dynasty of his own there so there's no reason to leave. If Jimmy is USC's head coach in 2020 and builds them back to national title contenders, he ain't coming back.
4. How many other head coaching candidates would have a complete and total understanding of what has been built at UW by Petersen, the OKG/Built for Life process, and be able to replicate it? You really want to roll the dice on some other coach who's possibly gonna fuck all that up just because Jimmy might not have head coaching experience when Petersen retires?
5. Same thing goes for the rest of the coaching staff, some of which want to be here for the rest of their careers. You wanna get rid of Malloe and his baller ass Poly recruiting and coaching, Coach K and his defensive mind, Huff and his recruiting and coaching? If Jimmy's the next head coach, those guys stay here and the good times keep rolling. Or you bring in a new head coach who wants his own staff, most if not all of our assistants go to join Jimmy's staff at USC or wherever he is and it's a colossal fuck up because if that new head coach isn't a home run hire (which isn't likely), UW is then getting beat by their old coaching staff, a staff they should still have, and back to mediocrity we go.
I'm not into rolling the dice on some outsider and cleaning house when you could just have a guy lined up who is 99% likely to be a great head coach and would keep the staff together and the winning culture intact. Jimmy is a fucking winner. All he does is win. He should be made associate head coach and given another raise and his next contract with UW should guarantee him the head coaching job post-Petersen. That's what a great AD would do. We got a special thing going here people. It cannot be torn down and fucked up post-Petersen! Jimmy will be our next head coach. That is going to happen. I trust Jen will get it done.
Disagree.
CFB is—has been—littered with once highly esteemed assistants who have crashed and burned as head coaches. Look no further than Lambo and Gilby. Karl Durrell. Norm Chow. Lane Kiffen. Will Muschamp (highly coveted by many Doogs during the Ty replacement search) This list goes on and on.
Lake isn’t hanging around for the succession plan. He just won’t. He’s ambitious; has shown a penchant for seeking higher salaries and—regarldless of who schemes and called X & O’s—piloted a top-5 defense in his first year as DC. Ace recruiter. Peterman disciple. That Dawg hunts. it’s doesn’t , however , guarantee success as a HC. Ten years ago Texas stepped up for then DC and recruiting ace Muschamp. 3 years; $1.7M. per, and a splashy title “Head Coach in Waiting”. He left anyway followed by a crash and burn at Fleurida
Jimmy’s gone after 2019 (screenshot this). SC. Oregon. Auburn? When he leaves—if he leaves—there is no guarantee he returns.
From a $$$ standpoint Lake has been priced out of anything that isn’t s P5 job
Due to geography, he’s probably not as realistic of a hire in some conferences vs others
Bottom tier P5 jobs may not be viewed as overly attractive as there is a ton of risk in them and the pay often isn’t anything special
High end P5 jobs (not named Washington) will likely pursue higher caliber/experienced candidates ... while Lake at SC could be really good ... the odds are that SC would never take the leap with him and prefer someone in their family because that’s what they do
So by my count there are probably only a handful of jobs that are realistic and a number of them have just been filled in the last year or two
At this point, Lake would have to be the favorite to be the next HC at Washington ... now whether that % is over 20-25% is a completely different question
Agreed on this. Jimmy passed on Colorado and another school I can't remember this last offseason.
I can't see him taking a G5 offer, or a low end P5 offer. But high end P5 would likely go for someone with more experience.
Except Notre Dame. They would gladly take him so they could finally win a recruiting battle.
From a $$$ standpoint Lake has been priced out of anything that isn’t s P5 job
Due to geography, he’s probably not as realistic of a hire in some conferences vs others
Bottom tier P5 jobs may not be viewed as overly attractive as there is a ton of risk in them and the pay often isn’t anything special
High end P5 jobs (not named Washington) will likely pursue higher caliber/experienced candidates ... while Lake at SC could be really good ... the odds are that SC would never take the leap with him and prefer someone in their family because that’s what they do
So by my count there are probably only a handful of jobs that are realistic and a number of them have just been filled in the last year or two
At this point, Lake would have to be the favorite to be the next HC at Washington ... now whether that % is over 20-25% is a completely different question
Agreed on this. Jimmy passed on Colorado and another school I can't remember this last offseason.
I can't see him taking a G5 offer, or a low end P5 offer. But high end P5 would likely go for someone with more experience.
Except Notre Dame. They would gladly take him so they could finally win a recruiting battle.
And also so they stop getting anally plungered... unless they are into that type of stuff.
Jimmy is never leaving and he'll be the head coach after Petersen.
This is the doogliest of takes but fuck anyone here that's not fulldoogpraying for this on some level.
Nah I don't want another Lambo. Hire the career assistant almost never works. Let him leave in a couple years, learn what he's doing for a few years then come back in 2028 or so as an established coach to take back over.
I love Lake as much as anyone but I want a proven HC after Petersen, not a guy who never even built his own defense. Lake has a lot to prove before we hand him the keys.
To clarify *promote* the career assistant almost never works.
You can probably through Riley in there as well if he ever figures out defense.
To be honest though...most every coaching hire doesn't work. There are only a few elite coaches, and everyone else is cycling through potentials every 3-7 years (average tenure is something like 3.8 years) in hopes of hitting one. I don't know that one method is any more likely to hit than another, but I do think Jimmy has more potential to be a great head coach over most of the younger coaches out on the West Coast (Harsin, Wells, Wilcox)...and if keeping him on staff as the assistant/eventual assistant HC guarantees we get him over the others as the next guy 8 or so years down the road I'm good with that.
Dabo and Riley aren't examples of career assistants.
Dabo was an assistant for 15 years when he took over Clemson. Riley was an assistant for 13 years. They were risers who moved up fairly quickly (Riley more than Dabo) and got their opportunity within a decade and a half.
Let's say Grundle is right and Pete only has five more years left (I think he has more than that). That means we are hiring a new HC for the 2024 season. Lake would have 25 years of experience as an assistant by that point, which puts him even with Lambright when he took over UW. Most likely by the time Pete leave Lake would have been an assistant for longer than Lambo before ascending to the HC role.
The general rule is if a guy isn't good enough to be given an HC job in their first 25 years they probably aren't good enough.
I think Lake would be much better than Lambo for a couple of reasons - he's more of a players coach, his recruiting is top notch, and he hasn't spent his entire career at one school. There's some reason to think that he could work. I'd be much more optimistic if he went somewhere else as HC first though.
This is so fucking stupid.
1. Everybody is an assistant before they're a head coach you moron. Being an assistant coach longer doesn't make you a worse head coaching candidate. More experience is better. He's also been turning down head coaching opportunities. Does turning down head coaching jobs now mean he's gonna be a worse head coach later? No.
2. Jimmy is not Lambo. They are two completely different people and coaches. There is no correlation between them. That's a bullshit comparison. Why even bring up Lambo's name if you think "Jimmy would be a much better head coach"? It's pointless.
3. If Jimmy were to leave to be a head coach elsewhere he's gonna kill it. He's a great coach and great recruiter. The chances of him being a bad head coach are minuscule. What the fuck makes you think he's automatically gonna be a lock to come back to be our head coach post-Petersen if he's already busted his ass to make some other program nationally relevant again? You think Dabo is a lock to go back to Bama when Saban finally retires? I don't. I think he's found his own place that he loves and can say he built himself and can obviously have a dynasty of his own there so there's no reason to leave. If Jimmy is USC's head coach in 2020 and builds them back to national title contenders, he ain't coming back.
4. How many other head coaching candidates would have a complete and total understanding of what has been built at UW by Petersen, the OKG/Built for Life process, and be able to replicate it? You really want to roll the dice on some other coach who's possibly gonna fuck all that up just because Jimmy might not have head coaching experience when Petersen retires?
5. Same thing goes for the rest of the coaching staff, some of which want to be here for the rest of their careers. You wanna get rid of Malloe and his baller ass Poly recruiting and coaching, Coach K and his defensive mind, Huff and his recruiting and coaching? If Jimmy's the next head coach, those guys stay here and the good times keep rolling. Or you bring in a new head coach who wants his own staff, most if not all of our assistants go to join Jimmy's staff at USC or wherever he is and it's a colossal fuck up because if that new head coach isn't a home run hire (which isn't likely), UW is then getting beat by their old coaching staff, a staff they should still have, and back to mediocrity we go.
I'm not into rolling the dice on some outsider and cleaning house when you could just have a guy lined up who is 99% likely to be a great head coach and would keep the staff together and the winning culture intact. Jimmy is a fucking winner. All he does is win. He should be made associate head coach and given another raise and his next contract with UW should guarantee him the head coaching job post-Petersen. That's what a great AD would do. We got a special thing going here people. It cannot be torn down and fucked up post-Petersen! Jimmy will be our next head coach. That is going to happen. I trust Jen will get it done.
Disagree.
CFB is—has been—littered with once highly esteemed assistants who have crashed and burned as head coaches. Look no further than Lambo and Gilby. Karl Durrell. Norm Chow. Lane Kiffen. Will Muschamp (highly coveted by many Doogs during the Ty replacement search) This list goes on and on.
Lake isn’t hanging around for the succession plan. He just won’t. He’s ambitious; has shown a penchant for seeking higher salaries and—regarldless of who schemes and called X & O’s—piloted a top-5 defense in his first year as DC. Ace recruiter. Peterman disciple. That Dawg hunts. it’s doesn’t , however , guarantee success as a HC. Ten years ago Texas stepped up for then DC and recruiting ace Muschamp. 3 years; $1.7M. per, and a splashy title “Head Coach in Waiting”. He left anyway followed by a crash and burn at Fleurida
Jimmy’s gone after 2019 (screenshot this). SC. Oregon. Auburn? When he leaves—if he leaves—there is no guarantee he returns.
Agree with all this except I think Lakes here another 2-3 years for the reasons teq laid out.
From a $$$ standpoint Lake has been priced out of anything that isn’t s P5 job
Due to geography, he’s probably not as realistic of a hire in some conferences vs others
Bottom tier P5 jobs may not be viewed as overly attractive as there is a ton of risk in them and the pay often isn’t anything special
High end P5 jobs (not named Washington) will likely pursue higher caliber/experienced candidates ... while Lake at SC could be really good ... the odds are that SC would never take the leap with him and prefer someone in their family because that’s what they do
So by my count there are probably only a handful of jobs that are realistic and a number of them have just been filled in the last year or two
At this point, Lake would have to be the favorite to be the next HC at Washington ... now whether that % is over 20-25% is a completely different question
From a $$$ standpoint Lake has been priced out of anything that isn’t s P5 job
Due to geography, he’s probably not as realistic of a hire in some conferences vs others
Bottom tier P5 jobs may not be viewed as overly attractive as there is a ton of risk in them and the pay often isn’t anything special
High end P5 jobs (not named Washington) will likely pursue higher caliber/experienced candidates ... while Lake at SC could be really good ... the odds are that SC would never take the leap with him and prefer someone in their family because that’s what they do
So by my count there are probably only a handful of jobs that are realistic and a number of them have just been filled in the last year or two
At this point, Lake would have to be the favorite to be the next HC at Washington ... now whether that % is over 20-25% is a completely different question
This is a pretty good take. He's in a spot where even a mid tier P5 job may not be as attractive as what he has, yet higher end jobs like SC will be looking for higher profile, splash hire, experienced HCs to throw their money away on.
I still think something comes along and he leaves after next season
Kelee has the higher ceiling because his athleticism, speed, & quickness with such a big frame, he’ll be able to be a better press corner but as far as a fit in UDUB’s defense Ricks is the prototype. Ringo is long & more filled out but you can tell he’s still raw and sometimes looks like a track guy playing football rather than the other way around. Ricks isn’t as fast or as quick but he’s so polished with a football IQ that is through the roof. But without that explosion needed to play press on an island a lot, making Ricks a bad fit for LSU.
This year we’ll be incredibly lucky just for them just to take us seriously in their top 3-5, but man there has to come a day where the top 2 CB’s on the west coast, who’s body styles match exactly what UDUB is looking for, actually use intelligence & logic and choose UDUB. How much better is your position group if Ayden Hector goes from the 1st best CB in the class without those guys, to the 3rd or even 4th if you add Clark Phillips at Nickel? Having 4 star, top 20 in their position group players as the 3rd-4th best guy in your class just like this years DT class is the level we are hopefully on the horizon of reaching.
Lake is probably looking for career advice on boards all over the place so we should just all agree that he wont have any success elsewhere and should just hang tight till petes gone
Comments
It's a known fact that elite head coaches have never worked as assistants.
This is what I figure barring any health/marriage issues.
Recruit a culture-changing class in next '20/'21, give 3-4 years for fruition ... check results for 3-4 years.
If win something significant (like a natty) then I can see Peterman retiring sooner than later.
That's ~ 2 more years, minimum, of highest-end recruiting plus development and evaluation and we're looking at 8-10 years or so and beyond.
Petersen will be 62-64 yrs old by then.
For reference, Saban is currently 67 yrs old.
I can also see Jimmy No Balls sticking around for another 3-4 yrs, if not 5-6 yrs or more to (1) further build his rep as a talent evaluator and developer for college and NFL success (2) enjoy the success at UW which is kinda underrated (3) see how far their progress goes which will determine his future coaching options.
At their level the money is pretty good. Chasing a college HC gig for money's sake I don't think is high on their radar as other factors.
1. Everybody is an assistant before they're a head coach you moron. Being an assistant coach longer doesn't make you a worse head coaching candidate. More experience is better. He's also been turning down head coaching opportunities. Does turning down head coaching jobs now mean he's gonna be a worse head coach later? No.
2. Jimmy is not Lambo. They are two completely different people and coaches. There is no correlation between them. That's a bullshit comparison. Why even bring up Lambo's name if you think "Jimmy would be a much better head coach"? It's pointless.
3. If Jimmy were to leave to be a head coach elsewhere he's gonna kill it. He's a great coach and great recruiter. The chances of him being a bad head coach are minuscule. What the fuck makes you think he's automatically gonna be a lock to come back to be our head coach post-Petersen if he's already busted his ass to make some other program nationally relevant again? You think Dabo is a lock to go back to Bama when Saban finally retires? I don't. I think he's found his own place that he loves and can say he built himself and can obviously have a dynasty of his own there so there's no reason to leave. If Jimmy is USC's head coach in 2020 and builds them back to national title contenders, he ain't coming back.
4. How many other head coaching candidates would have a complete and total understanding of what has been built at UW by Petersen, the OKG/Built for Life process, and be able to replicate it? You really want to roll the dice on some other coach who's possibly gonna fuck all that up just because Jimmy might not have head coaching experience when Petersen retires?
5. Same thing goes for the rest of the coaching staff, some of which want to be here for the rest of their careers. You wanna get rid of Malloe and his baller ass Poly recruiting and coaching, Coach K and his defensive mind, Huff and his recruiting and coaching? If Jimmy's the next head coach, those guys stay here and the good times keep rolling. Or you bring in a new head coach who wants his own staff, most if not all of our assistants go to join Jimmy's staff at USC or wherever he is and it's a colossal fuck up because if that new head coach isn't a home run hire (which isn't likely), UW is then getting beat by their old coaching staff, a staff they should still have, and back to mediocrity we go.
I'm not into rolling the dice on some outsider and cleaning house when you could just have a guy lined up who is 99% likely to be a great head coach and would keep the staff together and the winning culture intact. Jimmy is a fucking winner. All he does is win. He should be made associate head coach and given another raise and his next contract with UW should guarantee him the head coaching job post-Petersen. That's what a great AD would do. We got a special thing going here people. It cannot be torn down and fucked up post-Petersen! Jimmy will be our next head coach. That is going to happen. I trust Jen will get it done.
CFB is—has been—littered with once highly esteemed assistants who have crashed and burned as head coaches. Look no further than Lambo and Gilby. Karl Durrell. Norm Chow. Lane Kiffen. Will Muschamp (highly coveted by many Doogs during the Ty replacement search) This list goes on and on.
Lake isn’t hanging around for the succession plan. He just won’t. He’s ambitious; has shown a penchant for seeking higher salaries and—regarldless of who schemes and called X & O’s—piloted a top-5 defense in his first year as DC. Ace recruiter. Peterman disciple. That Dawg hunts. it’s doesn’t , however , guarantee success as a HC. Ten years ago Texas stepped up for then DC and recruiting ace Muschamp. 3 years; $1.7M. per, and a splashy title “Head Coach in Waiting”. He left anyway followed by a crash and burn at Fleurida
Jimmy’s gone after 2019 (screenshot this). SC. Oregon. Auburn? When he leaves—if he leaves—there is no guarantee he returns.
From a $$$ standpoint Lake has been priced out of anything that isn’t s P5 job
Due to geography, he’s probably not as realistic of a hire in some conferences vs others
Bottom tier P5 jobs may not be viewed as overly attractive as there is a ton of risk in them and the pay often isn’t anything special
High end P5 jobs (not named Washington) will likely pursue higher caliber/experienced candidates ... while Lake at SC could be really good ... the odds are that SC would never take the leap with him and prefer someone in their family because that’s what they do
So by my count there are probably only a handful of jobs that are realistic and a number of them have just been filled in the last year or two
At this point, Lake would have to be the favorite to be the next HC at Washington ... now whether that % is over 20-25% is a completely different question
In a recruiting thread for a top DB no less.
I can't see him taking a G5 offer, or a low end P5 offer. But high end P5 would likely go for someone with more experience.
Except Notre Dame. They would gladly take him so they could finally win a recruiting battle.
I honestly don’t disagree
I still think something comes along and he leaves after next season
This year we’ll be incredibly lucky just for them just to take us seriously in their top 3-5, but man there has to come a day where the top 2 CB’s on the west coast, who’s body styles match exactly what UDUB is looking for, actually use intelligence & logic and choose UDUB. How much better is your position group if Ayden Hector goes from the 1st best CB in the class without those guys, to the 3rd or even 4th if you add Clark Phillips at Nickel? Having 4 star, top 20 in their position group players as the 3rd-4th best guy in your class just like this years DT class is the level we are hopefully on the horizon of reaching.