Study Suggests Oregon is Doomed for a Downturn with Helfrich
Study Suggests Oregon is Doomed for a Downturn with Helfrich
Though on the cusp of a championship, the promotion of Mark Helfrich carries red flags, writes our resident Metrics Superiority Guy.
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What fucking evidence is there that Helfrich is more like Larry Coker than Tom Osborne?
Do some actual analysis and then pop off -
Oregon has a track record of hiring from within. Miami had a track record of hiring from outside - experienced head coaches. Johnson, Erickson, and Davis - well Davis was a NFL coordinator but still
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When did Chest become such a Doog?
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"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics"
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Sample size is kind of small, but great analysis. I agree with the conclusion, but more on subjective than objective means.
The big difference with Oregon vs Miami 2000s, their success was built on a very unique offensive system which is the bedrock of their competitive advantage, the strength of this system is reinforced by their crazy staff continuity, and was put into hyper drive the past 3 years with a once in a decade type talent that hit the ground running day1. Miamis advantage was, and always has been, geographical talent advantage, not their system. Geography and recruiting are actually Oregons biggest disadvantages. Systems are a more sustainable source of advantage than sales/recruiting in my opinion. Good salesman leave, worse ones come in the team regresses. If it wasn't SC would be amazing every year. In that sense you could maybe make a better correlation to Nebraska than Miami.
Mariota leaving will take out a lot of wind from their sails, but how they deal with staff continuity while maintaining a high performance system will be the big item that could turn 10win seasons into 7 or 8win seasons and door.ass.out.
That old black guy RB coach that dresses like Al Cappone - he should be retiring soon, not sure why no one makes a run at Scott Frost, or their OL coach. How they replace coaches is key while maintaining what makes their offense so unique. Pellum taking over for Allioti appears to be a success, but defense is irrelevant when talking about Oregons prospects for regression.
Which brings me back to Helfrich. Watching Helfrich on interviews, he comes of like such a dopey pussy. Does he think he's Letterman on these press conferences? Can't imagine he's an inspiring leader of players or coaches in that program.
That's not a huge issue when the bulk of the key players/coaches came up through Chip Kelly and Belotti (though maybe we saw signs of this with the tears vs Stanford and quit-job vs Az last year)...but how will the players, and more importantly coaches, that come up through Helfrichs watch react and maintain their high-performance system? Will they continue the course Kelly built, or will it go Pear shaped? My guess is the latter.
Maybe MH is Kaiser Soze'ing me in these interviews, but I kind of think he's a poor leader and we will see a general regression to an 8 or 9 win max type of coach.
TL;DR: Agree. MH is a fag, he will probably fuck it up.
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The title is kind of strong which Derek picked, not I.
Helf is not Osborne because Chip Kelly was Oregon's Osborne.
The study is an objective analysis. Feel free to draw your own conclusions. It will take three to four seasons to know who is right. Until then it will be interesting or interesting. -
LOL
Laziest fucking analysis ever.
"This happened at Nebraska 45 years ago, so Oregon is going to be similar now."
Do you even history bro? -
I conclude you went full Doog.HeretoBeatmyChest said:The title is kind of strong which Derek picked, not I.
Helf is not Osborne because Chip Kelly was Oregon's Osborne.
The study is an objective analysis. Feel free to draw your own conclusions. It will take three to four seasons to know who is right. Until then it will be interesting or interesting.
But I would still cyber you. -
Actually what happened 45 years ago is the best case. What happened 10 years ago is worst caseAZDuck said:LOL
Laziest fucking analysis ever.
"This happened at Nebraska 45 years ago, so Oregon is going to be similar now."
Do you even history bro?
Where the analysis fails for me is that Oregon is more like Nebraska than Miami. So Helfrich is either Osborne or Solich I guess. -
Or, you know, something completely different, since we are talking about a completely different program in a completely different time operating under completely different circumstances...RaceBannon said:
Actually what happened 45 years ago is the best case. What happened 10 years ago is worst caseAZDuck said:LOL
Laziest fucking analysis ever.
"This happened at Nebraska 45 years ago, so Oregon is going to be similar now."
Do you even history bro?
Where the analysis fails for me is that Oregon is more like Nebraska than Miami. So Helfrich is either Osborne or Solich I guess.
but still. -
Slingblade is about to pop off and Oregon isn't going anywhere.
Time for Peterman to nut up and find a QB that doesn't look like a Jerry's kid reject and teach some big fat fucks how to block once in awhile. If we wait for them to fail while we stand around pissing into the wind, all that is going to happen is they will keep hoisting hardware while we smell like urine.
Either way, kill Crazy Larry. -
I'm on your side here. Oregon has proven that they can hire from within and maintain and improve. The way that Helfrich has to improve on Chip is to keep winning without the Willie Lyles stuff. I know they didn't get the hammer (hi kim) but the reaction to the no means no stuff tells me the admin doesn't want the football team to get out of hand.AZDuck said:
Or, you know, something completely different, since we are talking about a completely different program in a completely different time operating under completely different circumstances...RaceBannon said:
Actually what happened 45 years ago is the best case. What happened 10 years ago is worst caseAZDuck said:LOL
Laziest fucking analysis ever.
"This happened at Nebraska 45 years ago, so Oregon is going to be similar now."
Do you even history bro?
Where the analysis fails for me is that Oregon is more like Nebraska than Miami. So Helfrich is either Osborne or Solich I guess.
but still.
If one is looking for Oregon to step back it will be the admin that does it not the coach -
The entire article is an outlier. Just look at the programs your referring to. Nebraska, Oklahoma, USC, Colorado, Michigan, Notre Dame........that is basically a list of the best programs in all of college football in the last 50 years (despite Colorado and Nebraska currently struggling) with the outlier Washington who had good success in the 90's then fell off the planet when James left. Then there is Oregon, who wasn't even close to relevant until the last decade.
Then your putting Kelly up there with Osborne, Switzer, James, and Holtz? Hey, we all loved Chip but how many national titles did he win? Ohh zero, thats right. If Helf wins the national championship he will already be a better head coach then Kelly. Kelly helped bring us from good to great, but Helf, hopefully, is taking us from great to the best in 2 years.
Recruiting hasn't dropped off, Phil isn't going anywhere, the Ducks are now a national brand name, Oregon boasts some of the best facilities in the entire country and Helf has only lost 3 games in two seasons. -
Not sure I agree yet, Chest.
I tend to think Helfrich is a damn good coach.
Will happily revisit this on a later date.
OT blowhard alert....blackmamba said:"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics"
I hate that quote. Math and specifically stats are so misunderstood it's scary.
That quote is from a "wannabe" who couldn't tell the difference between a truly normalized dataset and a spreadsheet full of nonsense violating all inference and collection assumptions. Then he ran a bunch of crap paired - t or chi tests to show some null hypothesis rejected as well as his publication attempt.
The researchers and scientists that can't grasp Stats ( and believe the above quote) are either now cutting keys at Home Depot or teaching Bio/Chem/Phys 101 at Meatball State.....
This is where they come up with lame dick quotes like this after years of crying himself to sleep after his statistical prowess was embarrassed by his fellow peers.
Sincerely,
QSci superiority guy -
Call him Slingblade or GTFO.Jave said:The entire article is an outlier. Just look at the programs your referring to. Nebraska, Oklahoma, USC, Colorado, Michigan, Notre Dame........that is basically a list of the best programs in all of college football in the last 50 years (despite Colorado and Nebraska currently struggling) with the outlier Washington who had good success in the 90's then fell off the planet when James left. Then there is Oregon, who wasn't even close to relevant until the last decade.
Then your putting Kelly up there with Osborne, Switzer, James, and Holtz? Hey, we all loved Chip but how many national titles did he win? Ohh zero, thats right. If Helf wins the national championship he will already be a better head coach then Kelly. Kelly helped bring us from good to great, but Helf, hopefully, is taking us from great to the best in 2 years.
Recruiting hasn't dropped off, Phil isn't going anywhere, the Ducks are now a national brand name, Oregon boasts some of the best facilities in the entire country and Helf has only lost 3 games in two seasons. -
Given that Nebraska has been reduced to hiring Mike Riley, perhaps they should have LIPO with Solich. It's completely arguable that having a stupid AD like Steve Pederson, (who fired Solich and hired Callahan, and has never accomplished shit at UNL or during two stints at Pitt), is far worse for a program in the long term. You might even get Todd Turner to agree.
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If Helfrich comes across as a "dopey pussy," I'm a little intrigued as to how you think peenerman comes across.BallSacked said:Sample size is kind of small, but great analysis. I agree with the conclusion, but more on subjective than objective means.
The big difference with Oregon vs Miami 2000s, their success was built on a very unique offensive system which is the bedrock of their competitive advantage, the strength of this system is reinforced by their crazy staff continuity, and was put into hyper drive the past 3 years with a once in a decade type talent that hit the ground running day1. Miamis advantage was, and always has been, geographical talent advantage, not their system. Geography and recruiting are actually Oregons biggest disadvantages. Systems are a more sustainable source of advantage than sales/recruiting in my opinion. Good salesman leave, worse ones come in the team regresses. If it wasn't SC would be amazing every year. In that sense you could maybe make a better correlation to Nebraska than Miami.
Mariota leaving will take out a lot of wind from their sails, but how they deal with staff continuity while maintaining a high performance system will be the big item that could turn 10win seasons into 7 or 8win seasons and door.ass.out.
That old black guy RB coach that dresses like Al Cappone - he should be retiring soon, not sure why no one makes a run at Scott Frost, or their OL coach. How they replace coaches is key while maintaining what makes their offense so unique. Pellum taking over for Allioti appears to be a success, but defense is irrelevant when talking about Oregons prospects for regression.
Which brings me back to Helfrich. Watching Helfrich on interviews, he comes of like such a dopey pussy. Does he think he's Letterman on these press conferences? Can't imagine he's an inspiring leader of players or coaches in that program.
That's not a huge issue when the bulk of the key players/coaches came up through Chip Kelly and Belotti (though maybe we saw signs of this with the tears vs Stanford and quit-job vs Az last year)...but how will the players, and more importantly coaches, that come up through Helfrichs watch react and maintain their high-performance system? Will they continue the course Kelly built, or will it go Pear shaped? My guess is the latter.
Maybe MH is Kaiser Soze'ing me in these interviews, but I kind of think he's a poor leader and we will see a general regression to an 8 or 9 win max type of coach.
TL;DR: Agree. MH is a fag, he will probably fuck it up. -
Race-
You raise some good poonts. Helfrich also kicked Colt Lyerla off the team and basically benched DAT in his first year. Also suspended Pharoh Brown for the snowball fight. Dude is not afraid to enforce discipline.
Frankly, I think the offense looks better this year than it ever did with Chip. A lot of that is Mariota, but the development of the recievers has a lot to do with the WR coach (Matt Lubick) that Helf hired. The playcalling is vastly improved, and you have to credit Frost (who Helf promoted). The DL has been very good under Ron Aiken (who Helfrich hired). The OL has been fantastic in dealing with multiple injuries, and you have to credit Steve Greatwood (who has been at Oregon since the beginning of time and predates Helfrich by a century or two).
I think there is some concern as some of the key long-term assistants either retire or move on (Greatwood, Pellum, Neal lead this list)... but Helfrich's hires have been good.
Also, I really like his tone in interviews. This season he seems to have perfected this whole "we're not executing in X phase well enough" tone for the halftime interviews which I like. He also preaches process and fundamentals, which I like for coaches to do. As mentioned, he's not afraid to enforce discipline even against the stars, so he's not a "player's coach." Yet pretty much every Duck player raves about him.
Who knows, maybe we got lucky, or maybe Chip Kelly was right about the guy.
* I also don't think you can over-emphasize the effect that Royce Freeman has had on the offense. A Helfrich recruit, and probably the best pure RB I have seen at Oregon in my time of being associated with the UO (1991-present). -
Neither comes across as Chip Kelly, Harbaugh, or Carroll to be honest. But I guess CP has 92-12 while Helfrich fell into the easiest coaching job in America. It's about to get a little bit tougher for MH. We'll see...Canard said:
If Helfrich comes across as a "dopey pussy," I'm a little intrigued as to how you think peenerman comes across.BallSacked said:Sample size is kind of small, but great analysis. I agree with the conclusion, but more on subjective than objective means.
The big difference with Oregon vs Miami 2000s, their success was built on a very unique offensive system which is the bedrock of their competitive advantage, the strength of this system is reinforced by their crazy staff continuity, and was put into hyper drive the past 3 years with a once in a decade type talent that hit the ground running day1. Miamis advantage was, and always has been, geographical talent advantage, not their system. Geography and recruiting are actually Oregons biggest disadvantages. Systems are a more sustainable source of advantage than sales/recruiting in my opinion. Good salesman leave, worse ones come in the team regresses. If it wasn't SC would be amazing every year. In that sense you could maybe make a better correlation to Nebraska than Miami.
Mariota leaving will take out a lot of wind from their sails, but how they deal with staff continuity while maintaining a high performance system will be the big item that could turn 10win seasons into 7 or 8win seasons and door.ass.out.
That old black guy RB coach that dresses like Al Cappone - he should be retiring soon, not sure why no one makes a run at Scott Frost, or their OL coach. How they replace coaches is key while maintaining what makes their offense so unique. Pellum taking over for Allioti appears to be a success, but defense is irrelevant when talking about Oregons prospects for regression.
Which brings me back to Helfrich. Watching Helfrich on interviews, he comes of like such a dopey pussy. Does he think he's Letterman on these press conferences? Can't imagine he's an inspiring leader of players or coaches in that program.
That's not a huge issue when the bulk of the key players/coaches came up through Chip Kelly and Belotti (though maybe we saw signs of this with the tears vs Stanford and quit-job vs Az last year)...but how will the players, and more importantly coaches, that come up through Helfrichs watch react and maintain their high-performance system? Will they continue the course Kelly built, or will it go Pear shaped? My guess is the latter.
Maybe MH is Kaiser Soze'ing me in these interviews, but I kind of think he's a poor leader and we will see a general regression to an 8 or 9 win max type of coach.
TL;DR: Agree. MH is a fag, he will probably fuck it up.
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The quote is usually attributed to Mark Twain although that is up to some debate. The fact remains that you can manipulate statistics in ways to fit your narrative. Which I believe was the purpose of the article.MisterEm said:Not sure I agree yet, Chest.
I tend to think Helfrich is a damn good coach.
Will happily revisit this on a later date.
OT blowhard alert....blackmamba said:"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics"
I hate that quote. Math and specifically stats are so misunderstood it's scary.
That quote is from a "wannabe" who couldn't tell the difference between a truly normalized dataset and a spreadsheet full of nonsense violating all inference and collection assumptions. Then he ran a bunch of crap paired - t or chi tests to show some null hypothesis rejected as well as his publication attempt.
The researchers and scientists that can't grasp Stats ( and believe the above quote) are either now cutting keys at Home Depot or teaching Bio/Chem/Phys 101 at Meatball State.....
This is where they come up with lame dick quotes like this after years of crying himself to sleep after his statistical prowess was embarrassed by his fellow peers.
Sincerely,
QSci superiority guy
It makes no sense to attribute a statistical analysis to the potential for coaching success. There are way too many variables to make a mathematical analysis. Thus, the article comes out looking like something that should be on the front page of dawgman.com
Great job!
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People get paid good money to analyze systems that are far more complicated.blackmamba said:
The quote is usually attributed to Mark Twain although that is up to some debate. The fact remains that you can manipulate statistics in ways to fit your narrative. Which I believe was the purpose of the article.
It makes no sense to attribute a statistical analysis to the potential for coaching success. There are way too many variables to make a mathematical analysis. Thus, the article comes out looking like something that should be on the front page of dawgman.com
Great job!
The issue that you seem to have lies with the fact that any one measure is not that robust in something with as many variables as coaching. If there were any measure that was close to 100% accurate, people wouldn't ever hire shitty coaches if they had the money to outbid other schools.
Statistics can help give you likelihoods, and its certainly more helpful than a blind guess if done right. It's very hard to do correctly. Do you include outliers or account for them? How many parameters do you include? Do your parameters reflect "real" things, or are they just an abstraction?
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Mariota is perfect for the college game, one of those once in a generation type players. I can't speak to how he will do in the NFL with his relatively thin frame and dependence on his legs for dictating how defenses play him in CFB vs. the Not For Long ranks where mobile QBs don't stay mobile for too long if they test the bigger, faster, stronger DEs, LBs, and DBs early and often.
Frankly, the changes in the college game since Dick Rod and Urban Meyer came along has made it harder for NFL execs to predict how mobile QBs' success in CFB will translate to the NFL game. The best QBs in the NFL have always been deadly accurate and only use their legs if they have to rather than relying on the HUNU read-option to create big windows....think Brady, Manning, Aaron Rodgers. Alex Smith was Meyer's QB at Utah and was the #1 pick but he's been only pretty good. Cam Newton was Malzahn's NC winning QB at Auburn and was the #1 pick but Newton has been somewhat injury prone and his performance has been erratic. Newton is basically the archetype of the new CFB offense but how will he do on the road against the Seahawks when Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, KJ Wright, and Bam Bam Kam are coming after him? But I digress...
Anyway, I don't really care about Oregon right now as we won't even beat Stanford next year if the staff doesn't figure out the QB position and the OL....not much sense in discussing if someone else's clean house will get dirty in 2015 when our house needs attention ASAP. -
Newsflash: vast majority of coaches fail. In any situation. No matter what parameters you select you're going to get the same results.
Unfortunately Oregon has many built in advantages at this point that make them an exception. Helfrich very well might suck. But at Oregon he could suck and still be successful. -
It's surprisingly hard for programs to stay on top. UW was until Oregon and USC led the charge to topple James. USC was on top with Carroll but then Carroll leaving and sanctions took them down. Stanford was briefly on top but then Harbaugh and Luck left and they haven't really been the same. Oregon is clearly on top this year but what happens with Mariota and a bunch of Kelly recruited / coached players move on?
Regardless, UW won't get back to the top of the league until we fix our own house. That starts with stability at the coaching position, at QB, and on the OL / DL. We obviously won't have turnover at HC but we'll probably have a new starting QB, 4 new starters on the OL, and an entirely new starting DL for 2015.
At least Charles is back at LG, Brostek will be taking his RS off for RG, and Tufunga and Shelton started a few games each in 2014.FremontTroll said:Newsflash: vast majority of coaches fail. In any situation. No matter what parameters you select you're going to get the same results.
Unfortunately Oregon has many built in advantages at this point that make them an exception. Helfrich very well might suck. But at Oregon he could suck and still be successful. -
This much is true: Oregon won't be this good indefinitely. At some poont the good times in Eugene will end.
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This might be the dumbest write up I've ever read. This looks like something you'd find on DawgFag. It's easy to say he'll take a step back no other place to go but down after a national title. Who fucking cares if they take a step back. A step back for Oregon is still 10 steps ahead of the Huskies. If Helfrick has red flags how many does Peterman have??
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DAMN STRAIGHT!!!111! PUMP MY GAS ACTUAL REAL LIFE DUCK!1AZDuck said:This much is true: Oregon won't be this good indefinitely. At some poont the good times in Eugene will end.
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CokeGreaterThanPepsi said:
DAMN STRAIGHT!!!111! PUMP MY GAS ACTUAL REAL LIFE DUCK!1AZDuck said:This much is true: Oregon won't be this good indefinitely. At some poont the good times in Eugene will end.
Fuck off -
For what its worth if Helf follows what I expect his record would be something like this the next 4 years:
11-2
10-3
9-5
8-5
I don't think its an extreme view to say he will regress. Fair to disagree but you can't paint it as extreme given the strong history behind these types of hires.
