TequillaFS Prediction Time - Mariners

If they don't lose their last 3 series, they'll be at worst in a position to play a 1 game playoff for the opportunity to play in a 1 game playoff for the opportunity to play 5 games against the Angels.

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greenblood

Seriously? That would be great roster. Will never happen though

My cousin switched to the Angels before the season started, I almost hopped on, but I've been with the Mariners since Griffey part 1 I couldn't leave. But if this team settles with what they have from this year, I am done for good. I feel like a fat kid chasing after a piece of cake at the end of the treadmill. I'll never get it, but it teases me continuously. That's what the Mariners are to me. A big fat middle finger to my hopes. I need to realize that a team that had the Unit, Griffey, ARod, and Edgar on the same team can't make a world series, this franchise will never get it done.

Tequilla

Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.

A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.

I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.

Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is.

greenblood

Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.

A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.

I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.

Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is.

Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.

Tequilla

Seriously? That would be great roster. Will never happen though
My cousin switched to the Angels before the season started, I almost hopped on, but I've been with the Mariners since Griffey part 1 I couldn't leave. But if this team settles with what they have from this year, I am done for good. I feel like a fat kid chasing after a piece of cake at the end of the treadmill. I'll never get it, but it teases me continuously. That's what the Mariners are to me. A big fat middle finger to my hopes. I need to realize that a team that had the Unit, Griffey, ARod, and Edgar on the same team can't make a world series, this franchise will never get it done.

If I was betting, I'd bet on a series of moves that makes you wonder what they are trying to do. This is an organization that is long bent on overvaluing their own prospects - many of whom fail to ever pan out.

My point was simply that if you look at 4 simple moves that you could argue would easily keep them fiscally reasonable (given their revenue streams which I'm conservatively estimating to be around $300M given the attached with simple compounded growth of 5% per year - given the purchase of Root plus a new TV contract that should be very doable). In the attached, major league revenue was over 50% of the annual revenues. If you believe that the Mariners can project to $300M+ in revenues in 2015, then a $150M payroll is very, very reasonable ... and I'm staying far south of that.

http://deadspin.com/5619509/mlb-confidential-part-2-seattle-mariners

If you make those 4 moves though, you're looking at a lineup that is relatively void of any tangible weaknesses and one that you would expect to compete for division/league, and world championships. The only move out of that group that I'd question as being realistic would be the Goldschmidt deal - but at some point, you cross the line where what you are offering is enough to make them (or a team like the Marlins with Stanton) begin to think about whether what is being offered is enough for them to say yes to.

TierbsHsotBoobs

The one thing more boring than listening to Dave Sims call a Mariners game is reading Tequilla's novels about the Mariners.

Tequilla

Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.

A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.

I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.

Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is.
Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.

You're assuming a lot by thinking that I'm a Mariners fan ...

To say that I'm jaded by the Mariners would be an understatement

TierbsHsotBoobs

Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.

A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.

I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.

Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is.
Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.
You're assuming a lot by thinking that I'm a Mariners fan ...

To say that I'm jaded by the Mariners would be an understatement

Disagree.

Tequilla

I'm excited by the fact that they've put together a season where competent management would take the next step ...

I'll know by February how many games I'll watch next season.

RoadDawg55

The bullpen will regress. Same with the starting pitching. The hitting will suck like normal. This is very possibly 09 all over again. A decent season before reverting back to being the Mariners. The Mariners will be the third or fourth best team in the division.

RoadDawg55

I had no idea who Aoki was, so I looked him up. 1 HR, that's exactly what the Mariners need. That .280 average probably becomes .260 in Seattle because that's what typically happens. I see some haven't learned from Chone Figgins.

dhdawg

The bullpen will regress. Same with the starting pitching. The hitting will suck like normal. This is very possibly 09 all over again. A decent season before reverting back to being the Mariners. The Mariners will be the third or fourth best team in the division.

Sort of agree. But you cannot compare this team to 2009 who had a -52 run differential and was constituted of pretty much all veterans.
They need to go out and get hitting or else they'll regress back to .500 or perhaps slightly below that

dhdawg

I had no idea who Aoki was, so I looked him up. 1 HR, that's exactly what the Mariners need. That .280 average probably becomes .260 in Seattle because that's what typically happens. I see some haven't learned from Chone Figgins.

So they aren't supposed to sign HR hitters because some haven't learned from jack cust, Corey hart, etc. but they aren't supposed to sign high OBP guys (who gives a flying fuck about batting average) because some fans haven't learned from chone figgins. They also aren't supposed to sign pitchers either because clearly no one has learned from Carlos Silva.
I guess they should sign nobody.
Just continue to have a black hole at leadoff

dnc

The bullpen will regress. Same with the starting pitching. The hitting will suck like normal. This is very possibly 09 all over again. A decent season before reverting back to being the Mariners. The Mariners will be the third or fourth best team in the division.

I *heart* RoadDawg123!

Division Title assured!

RoadDawg55

I had no idea who Aoki was, so I looked him up. 1 HR, that's exactly what the Mariners need. That .280 average probably becomes .260 in Seattle because that's what typically happens. I see some haven't learned from Chone Figgins.
So they aren't supposed to sign HR hitters because some haven't learned from jack cust, Corey hart, etc. but they aren't supposed to sign high OBP guys (who gives a flying fuck about batting average) because some fans haven't learned from chone figgins. They also aren't supposed to sign pitchers either because clearly no one has learned from Carlos Silva.
I guess they should sign nobody.
Just continue to have a black hole at leadoff

Aoki doesn't even have that high of an OBP. He walked 43 times. 1.0 WAR last year. He isn't an OBP machine. A non power hitting OF is the last thing the Mariners need. They need a thumper or GTFO. Austin Jackson has been a better player in his career.

Saunders and Ackley could both turn out to be decent. Ackley had a stretch where he looked like the player he was supposed to be coming out of college. Get a right handed corner outfielder to platoon with Saunders and Ackley. Denorfio sucks.

I like Tequilla's idea. Try and trade for Goldschmidt, Votto, or any other great hitter if possible. Signing either Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz, or the Yasmani Thomas (Cuban) would also be good. I would try to hang onto Peterson though. The offense needs a legit middle of the order hitter to go with Cano and Seager.

dhdawg

Ackley has had stretches before. He has yet to put it together for any significant stretch of time. Austin Jackson was horrible, they need an OFer. Votto's and goldschmidt's are not available in trade anymore. Evan Gattis may be an interesting trade option as well.
.350 obp nowadays is pretty good btw

Tequilla

I'd tell anybody looking to trade with us that Peterson is off the table ... UNLESS you were talking about a guy like Goldschmidt, Stanton, etc.

I generally agree that big time players aren't often available in trade, but at the same time, there's always a line where the value offered is so much that somebody can't say no.

Personally, the reason I'd throw the farm at Goldschmidt has as much to do with how good he is combined with the hole that he fills in the lineup (RH 4 hitter with power in any park), but he's got a very favorable contract long-term that matches up with Mariners management thinking.

I'm not saying that LaRussa and Dave Stewart would say yes to this deal, but at the same time, I don't know that they'd say no:

Walker + Peterson + Farqhuar/Williamson (possibly solves their need at closer) + Jackson + young OF prospect in A ball (we have a number down there that could be worth a look) for Goldschmidt.

I'd offer the same trade type for Stanton and see if I could get anything for him. If not, I'd see if I could pull off a lesser deal with the Marlins for either Yelich or Ozuna - both very young players showing a huge amount of upside.