TequillaFS Prediction Time - Mariners
Comments
-
My cousin switched to the Angels before the season started, I almost hopped on, but I've been with the Mariners since Griffey part 1 I couldn't leave. But if this team settles with what they have from this year, I am done for good. I feel like a fat kid chasing after a piece of cake at the end of the treadmill. I'll never get it, but it teases me continuously. That's what the Mariners are to me. A big fat middle finger to my hopes. I need to realize that a team that had the Unit, Griffey, ARod, and Edgar on the same team can't make a world series, this franchise will never get it done.dhdawg said:Seriously? That would be great roster. Will never happen though
-
Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.
A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.
I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.
Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is. -
Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.Tequilla said:Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.
A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.
I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.
Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is. -
If I was betting, I'd bet on a series of moves that makes you wonder what they are trying to do. This is an organization that is long bent on overvaluing their own prospects - many of whom fail to ever pan out.greenblood said:
My cousin switched to the Angels before the season started, I almost hopped on, but I've been with the Mariners since Griffey part 1 I couldn't leave. But if this team settles with what they have from this year, I am done for good. I feel like a fat kid chasing after a piece of cake at the end of the treadmill. I'll never get it, but it teases me continuously. That's what the Mariners are to me. A big fat middle finger to my hopes. I need to realize that a team that had the Unit, Griffey, ARod, and Edgar on the same team can't make a world series, this franchise will never get it done.dhdawg said:Seriously? That would be great roster. Will never happen though
My point was simply that if you look at 4 simple moves that you could argue would easily keep them fiscally reasonable (given their revenue streams which I'm conservatively estimating to be around $300M given the attached with simple compounded growth of 5% per year - given the purchase of Root plus a new TV contract that should be very doable). In the attached, major league revenue was over 50% of the annual revenues. If you believe that the Mariners can project to $300M+ in revenues in 2015, then a $150M payroll is very, very reasonable ... and I'm staying far south of that.
http://deadspin.com/5619509/mlb-confidential-part-2-seattle-mariners
If you make those 4 moves though, you're looking at a lineup that is relatively void of any tangible weaknesses and one that you would expect to compete for division/league, and world championships. The only move out of that group that I'd question as being realistic would be the Goldschmidt deal - but at some point, you cross the line where what you are offering is enough to make them (or a team like the Marlins with Stanton) begin to think about whether what is being offered is enough for them to say yes to. -
The one thing more boring than listening to Dave Sims call a Mariners game is reading Tequilla's novels about the Mariners.
-
You're assuming a lot by thinking that I'm a Mariners fan ...greenblood said:
Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.Tequilla said:Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.
A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.
I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.
Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is.
To say that I'm jaded by the Mariners would be an understatement -
Disagree.Tequilla said:
You're assuming a lot by thinking that I'm a Mariners fan ...greenblood said:
Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.Tequilla said:Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.
A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.
I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.
Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is.
To say that I'm jaded by the Mariners would be an understatement -
I'm excited by the fact that they've put together a season where competent management would take the next step ...
I'll know by February how many games I'll watch next season. -
The bullpen will regress. Same with the starting pitching. The hitting will suck like normal. This is very possibly 09 all over again. A decent season before reverting back to being the Mariners. The Mariners will be the third or fourth best team in the division.
-
I had no idea who Aoki was, so I looked him up. 1 HR, that's exactly what the Mariners need. That .280 average probably becomes .260 in Seattle because that's what typically happens. I see some haven't learned from Chone Figgins.
