TequillaFS Prediction Time - Mariners
Comments
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Gotta admit, 87-75 or whatever beat my expectations by 10 wins. I don't really follow them closely enough to know if they'll sustain it or fall on their faces again next year
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They should be able to sustain/improve. Their pitching should be excellent again, and the offense can't be worse, and should improve. If they can add a bat or two, they could be pretty good.
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They absolutely have set themselves up for a good season net year. If they make a good move or 2 this offseason, perhaps adding some depth in the OF and the pitching staff. Finding an actual dh. And if Lloyd McClendon figures out Saunders is good and stops benching him next season, they could be pretty good and perhaps push 90 wins.
I just have no faith that those moves will actually be made -
The last few times they were "good", they crashed and burned the following season. I agree that they are setup more for success than they have been in a long time, but the Mariners are gonna Mariner and I would guess < 80 wins next year.dhdawg said:They absolutely have set themselves up for a good season net year. If they make a good move or 2 this offseason, perhaps adding some depth in the OF and the pitching staff. Finding an actual dh. And if Lloyd McClendon figures out Saunders is good and stops benching him next season, they could be pretty good and perhaps push 90 wins.
I just have no faith that those moves will actually be made -
They'll sign a few more arms even though they don't need to, and they will either sign a .220's power only hitter or nothing offensively at all. This will set up for a perfect 78-84 follow up season. Why do I root for the Mariners?dhdawg said:They absolutely have set themselves up for a good season net year. If they make a good move or 2 this offseason, perhaps adding some depth in the OF and the pitching staff. Finding an actual dh. And if Lloyd McClendon figures out Saunders is good and stops benching him next season, they could be pretty good and perhaps push 90 wins.
I just have no faith that those moves will actually be made -
Sounds about right. You forgot to mention the power only hitter will spend a lot of time playing the OF even though his only legitimate position is DH, and will probably spend half the year on the DL.greenblood said:
They'll sign a few more arms even though they don't need to, and they will either sign a .220's power only hitter or nothing offensively at all. This will set up for a perfect 78-84 follow up season. Why do I root for the Mariners?dhdawg said:They absolutely have set themselves up for a good season net year. If they make a good move or 2 this offseason, perhaps adding some depth in the OF and the pitching staff. Finding an actual dh. And if Lloyd McClendon figures out Saunders is good and stops benching him next season, they could be pretty good and perhaps push 90 wins.
I just have no faith that those moves will actually be made
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This feels a little different because of how much youth there was in the roster and some of the steps forward that they took in the second half of the season. Of course, the Mariner management has never shown an ability to actually take an aggressive stance towards trying to win a title - which in the AL, they actually are in a great position to do so going forward if you look around the league (Detroit has a ton of arms, terrible pen, aging roster, terrible minor league system (trust me, I know this one firsthand) and probably no more than this year or next before their run ends; Yankees are a hot mess; Boston seems like they are in a bit of a transition right now as their next generation of players gets to the majors; KC/Cleveland are solid but don't inspire as world beaters; Texas also seems a bit of a hot mess; Oakland SHOULD take a massive step backwards next year as they went all in this year; and the Angels IMO aren't as good as their record showed).
What the Mariners need to prioritize this offseason if I was the GM:
1) Target bolstering the Starting Rotation
For as much as the Mariners had a great pitching staff this year, they also smoked and mirrored it a bit in places and barring attention will expect to see a bit of a regression here next year. Moreover, you have the most valuable assets in a potential trade for a bat in your rotation - so if you move one of them you'll need to backfill. Unlike with the bats, the potential free agents available in SP is relatively deep and allows you to target without feeling like you're going to have to get into a massive bidding war.
Tequilla's Plan of Action: Exercise Iwakuma's $7M club option and plan on him being your #3 starter; Target Jon Lester to be your #2 option and prepare to offer a 5 year contract in the $85M to $100M range. Monitor the health of Elias (who you most likely won't be able to trade as a result) and determine if you need to find a stop gap for the #5 spot in your rotation as the odds are that you'll be trading at least one of Paxton/Walker (which I'm ok with because I'm not sold on having more than 2 guys in my rotation that have still yet to complete a full major league season which I would be if I ran w/ a rotation of Felix + Kuma + Paxton + Walker + Elias). Moreover, you have ZERO organizational depth right now in the way of SPs ready to come up to help via injury, etc. with the only one even remotely close being Hultzen and that's not one I'd count on at all at this point. Look for a bounce back candidate comparable to Chris Young in 2015 - my call would be Justin Masterson. He's shown a tendency to pitch very well in odd numbered years and blows up on even numbered years. Given his performance this year, he's a guy I could see taking a one year contract in the hopes of having a solid year and then going back out on the market.
2) Find 2 bats offensively
With the number of young players on the roster, you have to expect a number of them to continue growing next year. Zunino in particular I expect better than the .199 he hit this year. Taylor/Miller will play it out at SS. I've seen enough at this point from LoMo to see that he's a competitor and someone you want on the team. He also showed that with regular playing time he can hit at a level that you will be more than satisfied with as a #7 hitter. Cano/Seager clearly are fine. I wouldn't be against flipping Jackson for a better leadoff hitter if you can pull it off. But he's not the problem per se. Saunders can't seem to stay healthy enough but I'm more than comfortable with him being your #3/#4 OF along with Ackley. Your most likely 2 positions where you are going to find the upgrade though will be in the OF and at DH - which means you might be able to use one of these 2 as a potential trade bait if needed. At least 1 of your bats needs to be an impact caliber RH hitting bat to balance out your lineup.
Tequilla's Plan of Action:
You probably will have to pay too much for Nelson Cruz and if you couldn't get him to Seattle last year, you aren't getting him this year. While he had some injury issues this year, I'd target Michael Cuddyer given that he can give you versatility in the OF, 1B, and DH. It's a great complement to LoMo. I'd look to see if he'll go for something in the 2 years for $25M range or 3 for $35M if he wants term. The #1 target though should be offering a godfather trade offer for an about to enter his prime Paul Goldschmidt. The DBacks are terrible and he's the one singular chip that they have that can turn into some ready major league talent with some potential impact along the way. Their rotation is crappy. Their pen is crappy. I'd offer them Walker + Ackley/Saunders + DJ Petersen (who you can move if you get Goldschmidt) + a relief arm that can help them (I'd try to push Medina on them).
Execute this plan and you should be looking at getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 92-95 wins next season and in a good spot to compete at a high level in a very mediocre AL for at minimum the next few seasons. -
I stopped reading after you giving priority #1 to bolstering the starting pitcher. Didn't the Mariners already try that a few years back when they signed Cliff Lee? Same stupid shit. The only time this franchise was ever relevant was when we had two strong starters with a strong bullpen with a steroid laden lineup. The first two are fine. Since steroids are now discouraged the Mariners will just have to pay more money.Tequilla said:This feels a little different because of how much youth there was in the roster and some of the steps forward that they took in the second half of the season. Of course, the Mariner management has never shown an ability to actually take an aggressive stance towards trying to win a title - which in the AL, they actually are in a great position to do so going forward if you look around the league (Detroit has a ton of arms, terrible pen, aging roster, terrible minor league system (trust me, I know this one firsthand) and probably no more than this year or next before their run ends; Yankees are a hot mess; Boston seems like they are in a bit of a transition right now as their next generation of players gets to the majors; KC/Cleveland are solid but don't inspire as world beaters; Texas also seems a bit of a hot mess; Oakland SHOULD take a massive step backwards next year as they went all in this year; and the Angels IMO aren't as good as their record showed).
What the Mariners need to prioritize this offseason if I was the GM:
1) Target bolstering the Starting Rotation
For as much as the Mariners had a great pitching staff this year, they also smoked and mirrored it a bit in places and barring attention will expect to see a bit of a regression here next year. Moreover, you have the most valuable assets in a potential trade for a bat in your rotation - so if you move one of them you'll need to backfill. Unlike with the bats, the potential free agents available in SP is relatively deep and allows you to target without feeling like you're going to have to get into a massive bidding war.
Tequilla's Plan of Action: Exercise Iwakuma's $7M club option and plan on him being your #3 starter; Target Jon Lester to be your #2 option and prepare to offer a 5 year contract in the $85M to $100M range. Monitor the health of Elias (who you most likely won't be able to trade as a result) and determine if you need to find a stop gap for the #5 spot in your rotation as the odds are that you'll be trading at least one of Paxton/Walker (which I'm ok with because I'm not sold on having more than 2 guys in my rotation that have still yet to complete a full major league season which I would be if I ran w/ a rotation of Felix + Kuma + Paxton + Walker + Elias). Moreover, you have ZERO organizational depth right now in the way of SPs ready to come up to help via injury, etc. with the only one even remotely close being Hultzen and that's not one I'd count on at all at this point. Look for a bounce back candidate comparable to Chris Young in 2015 - my call would be Justin Masterson. He's shown a tendency to pitch very well in odd numbered years and blows up on even numbered years. Given his performance this year, he's a guy I could see taking a one year contract in the hopes of having a solid year and then going back out on the market.
2) Find 2 bats offensively
With the number of young players on the roster, you have to expect a number of them to continue growing next year. Zunino in particular I expect better than the .199 he hit this year. Taylor/Miller will play it out at SS. I've seen enough at this point from LoMo to see that he's a competitor and someone you want on the team. He also showed that with regular playing time he can hit at a level that you will be more than satisfied with as a #7 hitter. Cano/Seager clearly are fine. I wouldn't be against flipping Jackson for a better leadoff hitter if you can pull it off. But he's not the problem per se. Saunders can't seem to stay healthy enough but I'm more than comfortable with him being your #3/#4 OF along with Ackley. Your most likely 2 positions where you are going to find the upgrade though will be in the OF and at DH - which means you might be able to use one of these 2 as a potential trade bait if needed. At least 1 of your bats needs to be an impact caliber RH hitting bat to balance out your lineup.
Tequilla's Plan of Action:
You probably will have to pay too much for Nelson Cruz and if you couldn't get him to Seattle last year, you aren't getting him this year. While he had some injury issues this year, I'd target Michael Cuddyer given that he can give you versatility in the OF, 1B, and DH. It's a great complement to LoMo. I'd look to see if he'll go for something in the 2 years for $25M range or 3 for $35M if he wants term. The #1 target though should be offering a godfather trade offer for an about to enter his prime Paul Goldschmidt. The DBacks are terrible and he's the one singular chip that they have that can turn into some ready major league talent with some potential impact along the way. Their rotation is crappy. Their pen is crappy. I'd offer them Walker + Ackley/Saunders + DJ Petersen (who you can move if you get Goldschmidt) + a relief arm that can help them (I'd try to push Medina on them).
Execute this plan and you should be looking at getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 92-95 wins next season and in a good spot to compete at a high level in a very mediocre AL for at minimum the next few seasons. -
Agree completely. If Lester wants to give us a discount to come home, sure I'd take him. Otherwise starting pitching is not priority #1, 2 or 3.greenblood said:
I stopped reading after you giving priority #1 to bolstering the starting pitcher. Didn't the Mariners already try that a few years back when they signed Cliff Lee? Same stupid shit. The only time this franchise was ever relevant was when we had two strong starters with a strong bullpen with a steroid laden lineup. The first two are fine. Since steroids are now discouraged the Mariners will just have to pay more money.Tequilla said:This feels a little different because of how much youth there was in the roster and some of the steps forward that they took in the second half of the season. Of course, the Mariner management has never shown an ability to actually take an aggressive stance towards trying to win a title - which in the AL, they actually are in a great position to do so going forward if you look around the league (Detroit has a ton of arms, terrible pen, aging roster, terrible minor league system (trust me, I know this one firsthand) and probably no more than this year or next before their run ends; Yankees are a hot mess; Boston seems like they are in a bit of a transition right now as their next generation of players gets to the majors; KC/Cleveland are solid but don't inspire as world beaters; Texas also seems a bit of a hot mess; Oakland SHOULD take a massive step backwards next year as they went all in this year; and the Angels IMO aren't as good as their record showed).
What the Mariners need to prioritize this offseason if I was the GM:
1) Target bolstering the Starting Rotation
For as much as the Mariners had a great pitching staff this year, they also smoked and mirrored it a bit in places and barring attention will expect to see a bit of a regression here next year. Moreover, you have the most valuable assets in a potential trade for a bat in your rotation - so if you move one of them you'll need to backfill. Unlike with the bats, the potential free agents available in SP is relatively deep and allows you to target without feeling like you're going to have to get into a massive bidding war.
Tequilla's Plan of Action: Exercise Iwakuma's $7M club option and plan on him being your #3 starter; Target Jon Lester to be your #2 option and prepare to offer a 5 year contract in the $85M to $100M range. Monitor the health of Elias (who you most likely won't be able to trade as a result) and determine if you need to find a stop gap for the #5 spot in your rotation as the odds are that you'll be trading at least one of Paxton/Walker (which I'm ok with because I'm not sold on having more than 2 guys in my rotation that have still yet to complete a full major league season which I would be if I ran w/ a rotation of Felix + Kuma + Paxton + Walker + Elias). Moreover, you have ZERO organizational depth right now in the way of SPs ready to come up to help via injury, etc. with the only one even remotely close being Hultzen and that's not one I'd count on at all at this point. Look for a bounce back candidate comparable to Chris Young in 2015 - my call would be Justin Masterson. He's shown a tendency to pitch very well in odd numbered years and blows up on even numbered years. Given his performance this year, he's a guy I could see taking a one year contract in the hopes of having a solid year and then going back out on the market.
2) Find 2 bats offensively
With the number of young players on the roster, you have to expect a number of them to continue growing next year. Zunino in particular I expect better than the .199 he hit this year. Taylor/Miller will play it out at SS. I've seen enough at this point from LoMo to see that he's a competitor and someone you want on the team. He also showed that with regular playing time he can hit at a level that you will be more than satisfied with as a #7 hitter. Cano/Seager clearly are fine. I wouldn't be against flipping Jackson for a better leadoff hitter if you can pull it off. But he's not the problem per se. Saunders can't seem to stay healthy enough but I'm more than comfortable with him being your #3/#4 OF along with Ackley. Your most likely 2 positions where you are going to find the upgrade though will be in the OF and at DH - which means you might be able to use one of these 2 as a potential trade bait if needed. At least 1 of your bats needs to be an impact caliber RH hitting bat to balance out your lineup.
Tequilla's Plan of Action:
You probably will have to pay too much for Nelson Cruz and if you couldn't get him to Seattle last year, you aren't getting him this year. While he had some injury issues this year, I'd target Michael Cuddyer given that he can give you versatility in the OF, 1B, and DH. It's a great complement to LoMo. I'd look to see if he'll go for something in the 2 years for $25M range or 3 for $35M if he wants term. The #1 target though should be offering a godfather trade offer for an about to enter his prime Paul Goldschmidt. The DBacks are terrible and he's the one singular chip that they have that can turn into some ready major league talent with some potential impact along the way. Their rotation is crappy. Their pen is crappy. I'd offer them Walker + Ackley/Saunders + DJ Petersen (who you can move if you get Goldschmidt) + a relief arm that can help them (I'd try to push Medina on them).
Execute this plan and you should be looking at getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 92-95 wins next season and in a good spot to compete at a high level in a very mediocre AL for at minimum the next few seasons. -
Finding a high obp guy with speed needs to be the #1 priority imo. I heard on the radio that mariner leadoff hitter combined for a .287 obp. I liked the Jackson trade at the time but he clearly isn't the answer and neither is moog fan favorites James Jones or endy Chávez.
Aoki seems like a great fit on paper. Probably my #2 target to victor Martinez when you take into account cost.
In terms of SP I am not interested in going big, save the money for the offense and sign McCarthy or liriano for depth purposes.
Also need a DH, if they want to go cheap Billy butler will give you league average offense which is still a step up from what they had this year. Martinez and Cuddyer both seem like good fits though.
They can also explore the trade market
