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TequillaFS Prediction Time - Mariners
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,815
If they don't lose their last 3 series, they'll be at worst in a position to play a 1 game playoff for the opportunity to play in a 1 game playoff for the opportunity to play 5 games against the Angels.
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Congrats roaddawg. I don't think Arizona123 could've been as wrong as you this season
I'm smelling a Saturday elimination ...
At least I'll get to celebrate a Husky win before heading to Safeco to
verbally abuseheckle every single Mariner hitter that doesn't deserve to be in the Major Leagues.I just have no faith that those moves will actually be made
What the Mariners need to prioritize this offseason if I was the GM:
1) Target bolstering the Starting Rotation
For as much as the Mariners had a great pitching staff this year, they also smoked and mirrored it a bit in places and barring attention will expect to see a bit of a regression here next year. Moreover, you have the most valuable assets in a potential trade for a bat in your rotation - so if you move one of them you'll need to backfill. Unlike with the bats, the potential free agents available in SP is relatively deep and allows you to target without feeling like you're going to have to get into a massive bidding war.
Tequilla's Plan of Action: Exercise Iwakuma's $7M club option and plan on him being your #3 starter; Target Jon Lester to be your #2 option and prepare to offer a 5 year contract in the $85M to $100M range. Monitor the health of Elias (who you most likely won't be able to trade as a result) and determine if you need to find a stop gap for the #5 spot in your rotation as the odds are that you'll be trading at least one of Paxton/Walker (which I'm ok with because I'm not sold on having more than 2 guys in my rotation that have still yet to complete a full major league season which I would be if I ran w/ a rotation of Felix + Kuma + Paxton + Walker + Elias). Moreover, you have ZERO organizational depth right now in the way of SPs ready to come up to help via injury, etc. with the only one even remotely close being Hultzen and that's not one I'd count on at all at this point. Look for a bounce back candidate comparable to Chris Young in 2015 - my call would be Justin Masterson. He's shown a tendency to pitch very well in odd numbered years and blows up on even numbered years. Given his performance this year, he's a guy I could see taking a one year contract in the hopes of having a solid year and then going back out on the market.
2) Find 2 bats offensively
With the number of young players on the roster, you have to expect a number of them to continue growing next year. Zunino in particular I expect better than the .199 he hit this year. Taylor/Miller will play it out at SS. I've seen enough at this point from LoMo to see that he's a competitor and someone you want on the team. He also showed that with regular playing time he can hit at a level that you will be more than satisfied with as a #7 hitter. Cano/Seager clearly are fine. I wouldn't be against flipping Jackson for a better leadoff hitter if you can pull it off. But he's not the problem per se. Saunders can't seem to stay healthy enough but I'm more than comfortable with him being your #3/#4 OF along with Ackley. Your most likely 2 positions where you are going to find the upgrade though will be in the OF and at DH - which means you might be able to use one of these 2 as a potential trade bait if needed. At least 1 of your bats needs to be an impact caliber RH hitting bat to balance out your lineup.
Tequilla's Plan of Action:
You probably will have to pay too much for Nelson Cruz and if you couldn't get him to Seattle last year, you aren't getting him this year. While he had some injury issues this year, I'd target Michael Cuddyer given that he can give you versatility in the OF, 1B, and DH. It's a great complement to LoMo. I'd look to see if he'll go for something in the 2 years for $25M range or 3 for $35M if he wants term. The #1 target though should be offering a godfather trade offer for an about to enter his prime Paul Goldschmidt. The DBacks are terrible and he's the one singular chip that they have that can turn into some ready major league talent with some potential impact along the way. Their rotation is crappy. Their pen is crappy. I'd offer them Walker + Ackley/Saunders + DJ Petersen (who you can move if you get Goldschmidt) + a relief arm that can help them (I'd try to push Medina on them).
Execute this plan and you should be looking at getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 92-95 wins next season and in a good spot to compete at a high level in a very mediocre AL for at minimum the next few seasons.
Aoki seems like a great fit on paper. Probably my #2 target to victor Martinez when you take into account cost.
In terms of SP I am not interested in going big, save the money for the offense and sign McCarthy or liriano for depth purposes.
Also need a DH, if they want to go cheap Billy butler will give you league average offense which is still a step up from what they had this year. Martinez and Cuddyer both seem like good fits though.
They can also explore the trade market