TequillaFS Prediction Time - Mariners
Comments
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Maybe you also trade young pitching for another hitter, maybe an outfielder and look to trade Ackley or Jackson, in that case you probably could go cheaper at dh with Billy butler. IDK
2 solid bats and a depth SP, it might also be good for them to try and sign a better backup c than John suck so you don't have to rely on zunino for 130 games again -
The more this gets discussed the more I realize this team isn't going to do anything. Why are we even discussing this? Mariner fans, including myself are getting exactly what we deserve. The excitement this near miss has created is leading perfectly to a 78-84 let down next year. Then Mariner fans will discuss how close we were in 2014. Why do I allow myself to suffer like this? Thank God, my Pirates figured it out after 20 years.
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@dhdawg
What the organization needs to figure out is what are they trying to do and how much are they willing to spend? They were right around $90M this season. I think they should be looking at getting into the $120-$130M range which puts you consistent with Texas but a little behind the Angels.
There's no chance I want anything to do with Brandon McCarthy - that's just throwing money away to be stupid.
I'd be 100% behind getting Ervin Santana if you are going to a Tier 2 starting pitcher.
Here are my problems with Aoki: 33 to start next season; in his 3 years in the majors his OPS+ has gone from 109, 100, and 98 (in comparison Saunders had an OPS+ of 128 this year, Ackley at 99, and Austin Jackson has had 3 of 5 years ahead of that in his career); and relatively zero power. This is the kind of guy that as soon as you give that contract to you are regretting it IMO.
In your scenario, what I'm taking away is that you'd spend about $25M next year on Victor Martinez and Ervin Santana. However, I do think you're a little light in the comp ranges though. Santana was on a 1 year $14M deal this year. I'm thinking you would be looking at 3 for 35 to 45 for him. Biggest problem with Martinez is going to be that he is the biggest bat on the market this year and will be looking at a potential bidding war from a number of different teams. He's coming off of a 4 for 50 deal so I think your call of 4 for 70 given his age probably isn't that far off. In total, you're looking at about $30M a year for these transactions.
If you take my scenario, I'm looking at going with Lester and Cuddyer as my two big free agent signings. I'm thinking you are looking at needing about $18M a year to be in the contest. Cliff Lee's deal from a few years ago was 5 for $120M. I'd hope that offering Lester a chance to come home, play without state income taxes (which could have an impact of up to $1-$2M per year depending on the state), and a chance to be on a contender with a favorable park for him given how deep left center field is at Safeco) is enough for him to possibly take a slightly lesser offer. Otherwise, I think you perhaps look at someone in Santana's range as what he will give you for about $10M less is worth it. Cuddyer you're ideally looking to get on a 2 year deal (willing to go 3) that will pay him in the $10-$12M range.
In both scenarios, the dollars are relatively comparable. I think you can get value with Cuddyer given that he's coming off a bit of an injury plagued year but has a demonstrated ability to hit. He's got enough position flexibility to make it make sense. And given that there's a strong pitching market in place (I expect the Red Sox and Yankees to make substantial runs and focus their attention on Scherzer and Shields, you might be able to find Lester as the forgotten man and the Mariners can actually find value there).
I think the Mariners value what Austin Jackson gives them in CF defensively and what we've seen from him hitting wise doesn't leave a favorable impression. I think you have to run the course with him given his defense and expect that what we saw over 2 months was as much tied to being uprooted and probably putting too much pressure on himself than anything else. The most interesting thing with him though will be if they try to resign him or not since he's heading into his last arbitration year when they've got a number of OFers coming up gradually through the system. Would he be a sexier name to put in the equation to try to get someone like Goldschmidt?
Zunino just needs to shorten his swing to find ways to make better contact - he'll still have the power regardless. He's good enough defensively, handles the staff well, and you can tell has some strong leadership qualities that he's going to be in the lineup 130+ games per year. There are a couple of other young catchers coming up in the system (on top of Sucre) that makes it so that you really don't need to sink a lot of money into the position. -
Fuck the Mariners. They're cheap ass douchebags who don't give a shit about winning because they make a shit ton of money.
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The ideal 2015 Mariners lineup in my mind:
1) Saunders - OF
2) Ackley/Jackson - CF
3) Cano - 2B
4) Goldschmidt - 1B
5) Seager - 3B
6) Cuddyer or TBD - RF/LF/DH
7) Morrison - 1B/OF/DH
8) Zunino - C
9) Taylor/Miller - SS
Bench: Sucre, Taylor/Miller, 4th OF w/ major league experience (put guys like Jones and Romero back down to Tacoma)
I'm assuming that one of Ackley or Jackson will get moved via trade to obtain Goldschmidt.
Pitching Staff
1. Felix
2. Lester
3. Kuma
4. Paxton
5. Elias or TBD
I'm assuming that Walker will be moved in the deal to go get Goldschmidt.
Bullpen
Closer: Rodney
RHP: Farqhuar, Wilhelmsen, Maurer, Leone, Carson Smith
LHP: Andrew Miller (offer 3 years for $10-$12M - need better options against LHP as I don't trust Furbush in those spots - also protects you if Rodney implodes and you need to take some of your RHP depth and move it to closer), Furbush
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Sometimes you have to overpay for need. This team has 3 hitters who get on base, Cano, seager and Saunders (unlikely he repeats his .340 obp next year). Yes Aoki will give you no power, but his obp has stayed at .350 in all 3 seasons, and he won't cost you a ton to acquire.
I would go 3/35 on Santana. And curious as to why you say McCarthy is a waste of money? Career 3.80 era, threw the ball very well this year in NY.
If Lester will come at a reasonable price sure. But I still feel you will have to overpay for him, and large contracts with pitchers are usually not a smart investment. -
We also don't know who's truly available via trade, which will have a big factor obviously in what they're looking at
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Who the fuck actually read this shit?Tequilla said:@dhdawg
What the organization needs to figure out is what are they trying to do and how much are they willing to spend? They were right around $90M this season. I think they should be looking at getting into the $120-$130M range which puts you consistent with Texas but a little behind the Angels.
There's no chance I want anything to do with Brandon McCarthy - that's just throwing money away to be stupid.
I'd be 100% behind getting Ervin Santana if you are going to a Tier 2 starting pitcher.
Here are my problems with Aoki: 33 to start next season; in his 3 years in the majors his OPS+ has gone from 109, 100, and 98 (in comparison Saunders had an OPS+ of 128 this year, Ackley at 99, and Austin Jackson has had 3 of 5 years ahead of that in his career); and relatively zero power. This is the kind of guy that as soon as you give that contract to you are regretting it IMO.
In your scenario, what I'm taking away is that you'd spend about $25M next year on Victor Martinez and Ervin Santana. However, I do think you're a little light in the comp ranges though. Santana was on a 1 year $14M deal this year. I'm thinking you would be looking at 3 for 35 to 45 for him. Biggest problem with Martinez is going to be that he is the biggest bat on the market this year and will be looking at a potential bidding war from a number of different teams. He's coming off of a 4 for 50 deal so I think your call of 4 for 70 given his age probably isn't that far off. In total, you're looking at about $30M a year for these transactions.
If you take my scenario, I'm looking at going with Lester and Cuddyer as my two big free agent signings. I'm thinking you are looking at needing about $18M a year to be in the contest. Cliff Lee's deal from a few years ago was 5 for $120M. I'd hope that offering Lester a chance to come home, play without state income taxes (which could have an impact of up to $1-$2M per year depending on the state), and a chance to be on a contender with a favorable park for him given how deep left center field is at Safeco) is enough for him to possibly take a slightly lesser offer. Otherwise, I think you perhaps look at someone in Santana's range as what he will give you for about $10M less is worth it. Cuddyer you're ideally looking to get on a 2 year deal (willing to go 3) that will pay him in the $10-$12M range.
In both scenarios, the dollars are relatively comparable. I think you can get value with Cuddyer given that he's coming off a bit of an injury plagued year but has a demonstrated ability to hit. He's got enough position flexibility to make it make sense. And given that there's a strong pitching market in place (I expect the Red Sox and Yankees to make substantial runs and focus their attention on Scherzer and Shields, you might be able to find Lester as the forgotten man and the Mariners can actually find value there).
I think the Mariners value what Austin Jackson gives them in CF defensively and what we've seen from him hitting wise doesn't leave a favorable impression. I think you have to run the course with him given his defense and expect that what we saw over 2 months was as much tied to being uprooted and probably putting too much pressure on himself than anything else. The most interesting thing with him though will be if they try to resign him or not since he's heading into his last arbitration year when they've got a number of OFers coming up gradually through the system. Would he be a sexier name to put in the equation to try to get someone like Goldschmidt?
Zunino just needs to shorten his swing to find ways to make better contact - he'll still have the power regardless. He's good enough defensively, handles the staff well, and you can tell has some strong leadership qualities that he's going to be in the lineup 130+ games per year. There are a couple of other young catchers coming up in the system (on top of Sucre) that makes it so that you really don't need to sink a lot of money into the position. -
The lineup will consist of the bare minimum to keep the dumbest fan base in baseball content.Tequilla said:The ideal 2015 Mariners lineup in my mind:
1) Saunders - OF
2) Ackley/Jackson - CF
3) Cano - 2B
4) Goldschmidt - 1B
5) Seager - 3B
6) Cuddyer or TBD - RF/LF/DH
7) Morrison - 1B/OF/DH
8) Zunino - C
9) Taylor/Miller - SS
Bench: Sucre, Taylor/Miller, 4th OF w/ major league experience (put guys like Jones and Romero back down to Tacoma)
I'm assuming that one of Ackley or Jackson will get moved via trade to obtain Goldschmidt.
Pitching Staff
1. Felix
2. Lester
3. Kuma
4. Paxton
5. Elias or TBD
I'm assuming that Walker will be moved in the deal to go get Goldschmidt.
Bullpen
Closer: Rodney
RHP: Farqhuar, Wilhelmsen, Maurer, Leone, Carson Smith
LHP: Andrew Miller (offer 3 years for $10-$12M - need better options against LHP as I don't trust Furbush in those spots - also protects you if Rodney implodes and you need to take some of your RHP depth and move it to closer), Furbush -
Seriously? That would be great roster. Will never happen though
