TequillaFS Prediction Time - Mariners
Comments
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Where do you pay ANY money on this roster besides Cano and Felix?
You have a few arbitration eligible players, but this year's roster was $20M UNDER the major league average and that is with 2 of the top 10-15 players in the game on that roster.
The other thing that many of you are missing is that this is a franchise that rolls in the $$$ given their purchase of ROOT Sports. They've cut out the middleman and have a tremendous cash windfall available to them. There's absolutely no reason that they can't be in the $115-$135M range of payroll IF their goal is to win a championship.
If you want to win a championship with this roster, you find 2 bats and 1 front 3 of the rotation arm.
If you want to bean count and get yourself into the playoffs and hope everything breaks right, you go try to find next year's Chris Young, hope you find a better version of Corey Hart, and leave yourself minimal margin for error.
For example, if the Mariners threw an extra $5M out there to try to sign Nelson Cruz and get him to sign with them instead of Baltimore, are we talking about next season today?
You have a roster set up to be able to win at a high, high level without too much additional help. But you know you have competition with teams in your league and division that will leave no stone unturned when it comes to trying to win and compete for championships. If you're going to build a roster that puts you in a position to do so with another 1-3 moves, then you absolutely need to do so if you're interested in winning. If you're interested in making money first and foremost, you go the cheap route.
The Mariners have an opportunity to throw away the label of caring more about $$$ than winning by what they do the next few months. -
You are asking a lot from this franchiseTequilla said:Where do you pay ANY money on this roster besides Cano and Felix?
You have a few arbitration eligible players, but this year's roster was $20M UNDER the major league average and that is with 2 of the top 10-15 players in the game on that roster.
The other thing that many of you are missing is that this is a franchise that rolls in the $$$ given their purchase of ROOT Sports. They've cut out the middleman and have a tremendous cash windfall available to them. There's absolutely no reason that they can't be in the $115-$135M range of payroll IF their goal is to win a championship.
If you want to win a championship with this roster, you find 2 bats and 1 front 3 of the rotation arm.
If you want to bean count and get yourself into the playoffs and hope everything breaks right, you go try to find next year's Chris Young, hope you find a better version of Corey Hart, and leave yourself minimal margin for error.
For example, if the Mariners threw an extra $5M out there to try to sign Nelson Cruz and get him to sign with them instead of Baltimore, are we talking about next season today?
You have a roster set up to be able to win at a high, high level without too much additional help. But you know you have competition with teams in your league and division that will leave no stone unturned when it comes to trying to win and compete for championships. If you're going to build a roster that puts you in a position to do so with another 1-3 moves, then you absolutely need to do so if you're interested in winning. If you're interested in making money first and foremost, you go the cheap route.
The Mariners have an opportunity to throw away the label of caring more about $$$ than winning by what they do the next few months. -
Regarding the front of the rotation starter to team with Felix ... the reason you go after that arm is because of the following reasons:
1) An elite SP that pitches over 200 innings will ultimately face somewhere in the neighborhood of 800-900 batters over the course of the season (200 innings x 3 outs = 600 + approximately 1.2 runners per hitting reaching base via walk or hit = 240; 600 + 240 = 840). An All-Star caliber middle of the order bat (i.e. Robinson Cano) had 665 plate appearances this year. The relative worth of the SP is significantly higher than that of a hitter.
2) When your home park is Safeco Field, you play to pitching and defense first and hitting second. Felix continuously shows you the importance of what elite pitching will do for you. You get the same with Kuma. You aren't resigning Chris Young. You have a lack of organizational depth right now in the high minors. You most likely will need to use one of your 3 young pitchers in a trade to find a bat. The supply of high quality SP on the market is actually fairly strong - which increases your ability to grab one. Without bolstering one of your biggest strengths, you run the risk of having to plug your rotation with next year's Chris Young and once again hoping that you strike gold. You are better off spending money to ensure that you eliminate said risk. IF you run into any kind of injury situation, or more importantly, a flame out of a off the scrap heap #5 starter, a starter who by the way will make 30+ starts for you, you could very easily be staring at a 10-20 record in those starts. If you figure going into the year that you need 90 wins to make the postseason, that means that you need to go 80-52 the rest of the way (that's .606 baseball). In contrast, if you fill out your rotation such that you have a strong 5 starter who is able to get you 20-10 in their starts, then you need to be 70-62 the rest of the way to ensure that you get to 90 wins. Getting a top 2 or 3 of the rotation starter isn't just about helping you in that spot of your rotation, but it's lengthening and increasing the quality of that rotation from top to bottom.
3) When you get to the playoffs, your rotation becomes even more important as run prevention gets magnified. I'd be shocked if the Angels got out of the AL and into the WS given their current state of their rotation. Great pitching almost always beats great hitting - and particularly so in October. Bats don't do so well when it is 40 degrees in Detroit.
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@greenblood
You are right, I might be asking for a lot from this franchise given their track record.
But it's also why they've earned that track record over the years is because when faced with the opportunity to be a championship caliber franchise, they've taken the cheap way out of doing so.
Make the moves that I spelled out and the Mariners are probably the favorites to win the AL West, a leading favorite in the AL (probably around 5 to 1), and probably somewhere around a 12-15 to 1 favorite to win the American League (which would be a great price to jump on given that the Mariners will not be bet up by the average public/population).
They've put themselves in a position to chase that dream ... are they prepared to chase it now? -
TL, DR summary:Tequilla said:Where do you pay ANY money on this roster besides Cano and Felix?
You have a few arbitration eligible players, but this year's roster was $20M UNDER the major league average and that is with 2 of the top 10-15 players in the game on that roster.
The other thing that many of you are missing is that this is a franchise that rolls in the $$$ given their purchase of ROOT Sports. They've cut out the middleman and have a tremendous cash windfall available to them. There's absolutely no reason that they can't be in the $115-$135M range of payroll IF their goal is to win a championship.
If you want to win a championship with this roster, you find 2 bats and 1 front 3 of the rotation arm.
If you want to bean count and get yourself into the playoffs and hope everything breaks right, you go try to find next year's Chris Young, hope you find a better version of Corey Hart, and leave yourself minimal margin for error.
For example, if the Mariners threw an extra $5M out there to try to sign Nelson Cruz and get him to sign with them instead of Baltimore, are we talking about next season today?
You have a roster set up to be able to win at a high, high level without too much additional help. But you know you have competition with teams in your league and division that will leave no stone unturned when it comes to trying to win and compete for championships. If you're going to build a roster that puts you in a position to do so with another 1-3 moves, then you absolutely need to do so if you're interested in winning. If you're interested in making money first and foremost, you go the cheap route.
The Mariners have an opportunity to throw away the label of caring more about $$$ than winning by what they do the next few months.
Marinerization -
My name is Sven and I'm the master of figuring out how many ways to write hardy har har in any given day.
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Marinerization: See also_ Battered Wife SyndromeTierbsHsotBoobs said:
TL, DR summary:Tequilla said:Where do you pay ANY money on this roster besides Cano and Felix?
You have a few arbitration eligible players, but this year's roster was $20M UNDER the major league average and that is with 2 of the top 10-15 players in the game on that roster.
The other thing that many of you are missing is that this is a franchise that rolls in the $$$ given their purchase of ROOT Sports. They've cut out the middleman and have a tremendous cash windfall available to them. There's absolutely no reason that they can't be in the $115-$135M range of payroll IF their goal is to win a championship.
If you want to win a championship with this roster, you find 2 bats and 1 front 3 of the rotation arm.
If you want to bean count and get yourself into the playoffs and hope everything breaks right, you go try to find next year's Chris Young, hope you find a better version of Corey Hart, and leave yourself minimal margin for error.
For example, if the Mariners threw an extra $5M out there to try to sign Nelson Cruz and get him to sign with them instead of Baltimore, are we talking about next season today?
You have a roster set up to be able to win at a high, high level without too much additional help. But you know you have competition with teams in your league and division that will leave no stone unturned when it comes to trying to win and compete for championships. If you're going to build a roster that puts you in a position to do so with another 1-3 moves, then you absolutely need to do so if you're interested in winning. If you're interested in making money first and foremost, you go the cheap route.
The Mariners have an opportunity to throw away the label of caring more about $$$ than winning by what they do the next few months.
Marinerization
Too soon? -
Not the case. I summarized your whole windbag bullshit post in one word.Tequilla said:My name is Sven and I'm the master of figuring out how many ways to write hardy har har in any given day.
They're the cheap ass fucking Mariners until they prove otherwise.
Lather, rinse, repeat. -
Leave it to the Mariners to fall apart down the stretch only to recover just in time to be a game short. I hate this organization.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
Not the case. I summarized your whole windbag bullshit post in one word.Tequilla said:My name is Sven and I'm the master of figuring out how many ways to write hardy har har in any given day.
They're the cheap ass fucking Mariners until they prove otherwise.
Lather, rinse, repeat. -
Respectfully disagree. This team isn't going to spend loads of money. So don't blow it all on great pitching. I agree they needs a SP, but you can spend 2/12 on Brandon McCarthy, or 3/25 on Ervin Santana and still have money left over for the offense.
3/21 for Aoki, 2/12 on McCarthy and 4/70 on victor Martinez
