TequillaFS Prediction Time - Mariners
Comments
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Maybe you also trade young pitching for another hitter, maybe an outfielder and look to trade Ackley or Jackson, in that case you probably could go cheaper at dh with Billy butler. IDK
2 solid bats and a depth SP, it might also be good for them to try and sign a better backup c than John suck so you don't have to rely on zunino for 130 games again -
The more this gets discussed the more I realize this team isn't going to do anything. Why are we even discussing this? Mariner fans, including myself are getting exactly what we deserve. The excitement this near miss has created is leading perfectly to a 78-84 let down next year. Then Mariner fans will discuss how close we were in 2014. Why do I allow myself to suffer like this? Thank God, my Pirates figured it out after 20 years.
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@dhdawg
What the organization needs to figure out is what are they trying to do and how much are they willing to spend? They were right around $90M this season. I think they should be looking at getting into the $120-$130M range which puts you consistent with Texas but a little behind the Angels.
There's no chance I want anything to do with Brandon McCarthy - that's just throwing money away to be stupid.
I'd be 100% behind getting Ervin Santana if you are going to a Tier 2 starting pitcher.
Here are my problems with Aoki: 33 to start next season; in his 3 years in the majors his OPS+ has gone from 109, 100, and 98 (in comparison Saunders had an OPS+ of 128 this year, Ackley at 99, and Austin Jackson has had 3 of 5 years ahead of that in his career); and relatively zero power. This is the kind of guy that as soon as you give that contract to you are regretting it IMO.
In your scenario, what I'm taking away is that you'd spend about $25M next year on Victor Martinez and Ervin Santana. However, I do think you're a little light in the comp ranges though. Santana was on a 1 year $14M deal this year. I'm thinking you would be looking at 3 for 35 to 45 for him. Biggest problem with Martinez is going to be that he is the biggest bat on the market this year and will be looking at a potential bidding war from a number of different teams. He's coming off of a 4 for 50 deal so I think your call of 4 for 70 given his age probably isn't that far off. In total, you're looking at about $30M a year for these transactions.
If you take my scenario, I'm looking at going with Lester and Cuddyer as my two big free agent signings. I'm thinking you are looking at needing about $18M a year to be in the contest. Cliff Lee's deal from a few years ago was 5 for $120M. I'd hope that offering Lester a chance to come home, play without state income taxes (which could have an impact of up to $1-$2M per year depending on the state), and a chance to be on a contender with a favorable park for him given how deep left center field is at Safeco) is enough for him to possibly take a slightly lesser offer. Otherwise, I think you perhaps look at someone in Santana's range as what he will give you for about $10M less is worth it. Cuddyer you're ideally looking to get on a 2 year deal (willing to go 3) that will pay him in the $10-$12M range.
In both scenarios, the dollars are relatively comparable. I think you can get value with Cuddyer given that he's coming off a bit of an injury plagued year but has a demonstrated ability to hit. He's got enough position flexibility to make it make sense. And given that there's a strong pitching market in place (I expect the Red Sox and Yankees to make substantial runs and focus their attention on Scherzer and Shields, you might be able to find Lester as the forgotten man and the Mariners can actually find value there).
I think the Mariners value what Austin Jackson gives them in CF defensively and what we've seen from him hitting wise doesn't leave a favorable impression. I think you have to run the course with him given his defense and expect that what we saw over 2 months was as much tied to being uprooted and probably putting too much pressure on himself than anything else. The most interesting thing with him though will be if they try to resign him or not since he's heading into his last arbitration year when they've got a number of OFers coming up gradually through the system. Would he be a sexier name to put in the equation to try to get someone like Goldschmidt?
Zunino just needs to shorten his swing to find ways to make better contact - he'll still have the power regardless. He's good enough defensively, handles the staff well, and you can tell has some strong leadership qualities that he's going to be in the lineup 130+ games per year. There are a couple of other young catchers coming up in the system (on top of Sucre) that makes it so that you really don't need to sink a lot of money into the position. -
Fuck the Mariners. They're cheap ass douchebags who don't give a shit about winning because they make a shit ton of money.
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The ideal 2015 Mariners lineup in my mind:
1) Saunders - OF
2) Ackley/Jackson - CF
3) Cano - 2B
4) Goldschmidt - 1B
5) Seager - 3B
6) Cuddyer or TBD - RF/LF/DH
7) Morrison - 1B/OF/DH
8) Zunino - C
9) Taylor/Miller - SS
Bench: Sucre, Taylor/Miller, 4th OF w/ major league experience (put guys like Jones and Romero back down to Tacoma)
I'm assuming that one of Ackley or Jackson will get moved via trade to obtain Goldschmidt.
Pitching Staff
1. Felix
2. Lester
3. Kuma
4. Paxton
5. Elias or TBD
I'm assuming that Walker will be moved in the deal to go get Goldschmidt.
Bullpen
Closer: Rodney
RHP: Farqhuar, Wilhelmsen, Maurer, Leone, Carson Smith
LHP: Andrew Miller (offer 3 years for $10-$12M - need better options against LHP as I don't trust Furbush in those spots - also protects you if Rodney implodes and you need to take some of your RHP depth and move it to closer), Furbush
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Sometimes you have to overpay for need. This team has 3 hitters who get on base, Cano, seager and Saunders (unlikely he repeats his .340 obp next year). Yes Aoki will give you no power, but his obp has stayed at .350 in all 3 seasons, and he won't cost you a ton to acquire.
I would go 3/35 on Santana. And curious as to why you say McCarthy is a waste of money? Career 3.80 era, threw the ball very well this year in NY.
If Lester will come at a reasonable price sure. But I still feel you will have to overpay for him, and large contracts with pitchers are usually not a smart investment. -
We also don't know who's truly available via trade, which will have a big factor obviously in what they're looking at
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Who the fuck actually read this shit?Tequilla said:@dhdawg
What the organization needs to figure out is what are they trying to do and how much are they willing to spend? They were right around $90M this season. I think they should be looking at getting into the $120-$130M range which puts you consistent with Texas but a little behind the Angels.
There's no chance I want anything to do with Brandon McCarthy - that's just throwing money away to be stupid.
I'd be 100% behind getting Ervin Santana if you are going to a Tier 2 starting pitcher.
Here are my problems with Aoki: 33 to start next season; in his 3 years in the majors his OPS+ has gone from 109, 100, and 98 (in comparison Saunders had an OPS+ of 128 this year, Ackley at 99, and Austin Jackson has had 3 of 5 years ahead of that in his career); and relatively zero power. This is the kind of guy that as soon as you give that contract to you are regretting it IMO.
In your scenario, what I'm taking away is that you'd spend about $25M next year on Victor Martinez and Ervin Santana. However, I do think you're a little light in the comp ranges though. Santana was on a 1 year $14M deal this year. I'm thinking you would be looking at 3 for 35 to 45 for him. Biggest problem with Martinez is going to be that he is the biggest bat on the market this year and will be looking at a potential bidding war from a number of different teams. He's coming off of a 4 for 50 deal so I think your call of 4 for 70 given his age probably isn't that far off. In total, you're looking at about $30M a year for these transactions.
If you take my scenario, I'm looking at going with Lester and Cuddyer as my two big free agent signings. I'm thinking you are looking at needing about $18M a year to be in the contest. Cliff Lee's deal from a few years ago was 5 for $120M. I'd hope that offering Lester a chance to come home, play without state income taxes (which could have an impact of up to $1-$2M per year depending on the state), and a chance to be on a contender with a favorable park for him given how deep left center field is at Safeco) is enough for him to possibly take a slightly lesser offer. Otherwise, I think you perhaps look at someone in Santana's range as what he will give you for about $10M less is worth it. Cuddyer you're ideally looking to get on a 2 year deal (willing to go 3) that will pay him in the $10-$12M range.
In both scenarios, the dollars are relatively comparable. I think you can get value with Cuddyer given that he's coming off a bit of an injury plagued year but has a demonstrated ability to hit. He's got enough position flexibility to make it make sense. And given that there's a strong pitching market in place (I expect the Red Sox and Yankees to make substantial runs and focus their attention on Scherzer and Shields, you might be able to find Lester as the forgotten man and the Mariners can actually find value there).
I think the Mariners value what Austin Jackson gives them in CF defensively and what we've seen from him hitting wise doesn't leave a favorable impression. I think you have to run the course with him given his defense and expect that what we saw over 2 months was as much tied to being uprooted and probably putting too much pressure on himself than anything else. The most interesting thing with him though will be if they try to resign him or not since he's heading into his last arbitration year when they've got a number of OFers coming up gradually through the system. Would he be a sexier name to put in the equation to try to get someone like Goldschmidt?
Zunino just needs to shorten his swing to find ways to make better contact - he'll still have the power regardless. He's good enough defensively, handles the staff well, and you can tell has some strong leadership qualities that he's going to be in the lineup 130+ games per year. There are a couple of other young catchers coming up in the system (on top of Sucre) that makes it so that you really don't need to sink a lot of money into the position. -
The lineup will consist of the bare minimum to keep the dumbest fan base in baseball content.Tequilla said:The ideal 2015 Mariners lineup in my mind:
1) Saunders - OF
2) Ackley/Jackson - CF
3) Cano - 2B
4) Goldschmidt - 1B
5) Seager - 3B
6) Cuddyer or TBD - RF/LF/DH
7) Morrison - 1B/OF/DH
8) Zunino - C
9) Taylor/Miller - SS
Bench: Sucre, Taylor/Miller, 4th OF w/ major league experience (put guys like Jones and Romero back down to Tacoma)
I'm assuming that one of Ackley or Jackson will get moved via trade to obtain Goldschmidt.
Pitching Staff
1. Felix
2. Lester
3. Kuma
4. Paxton
5. Elias or TBD
I'm assuming that Walker will be moved in the deal to go get Goldschmidt.
Bullpen
Closer: Rodney
RHP: Farqhuar, Wilhelmsen, Maurer, Leone, Carson Smith
LHP: Andrew Miller (offer 3 years for $10-$12M - need better options against LHP as I don't trust Furbush in those spots - also protects you if Rodney implodes and you need to take some of your RHP depth and move it to closer), Furbush -
Seriously? That would be great roster. Will never happen though
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My cousin switched to the Angels before the season started, I almost hopped on, but I've been with the Mariners since Griffey part 1 I couldn't leave. But if this team settles with what they have from this year, I am done for good. I feel like a fat kid chasing after a piece of cake at the end of the treadmill. I'll never get it, but it teases me continuously. That's what the Mariners are to me. A big fat middle finger to my hopes. I need to realize that a team that had the Unit, Griffey, ARod, and Edgar on the same team can't make a world series, this franchise will never get it done.dhdawg said:Seriously? That would be great roster. Will never happen though
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Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.
A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.
I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.
Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is. -
Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.Tequilla said:Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.
A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.
I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.
Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is. -
If I was betting, I'd bet on a series of moves that makes you wonder what they are trying to do. This is an organization that is long bent on overvaluing their own prospects - many of whom fail to ever pan out.greenblood said:
My cousin switched to the Angels before the season started, I almost hopped on, but I've been with the Mariners since Griffey part 1 I couldn't leave. But if this team settles with what they have from this year, I am done for good. I feel like a fat kid chasing after a piece of cake at the end of the treadmill. I'll never get it, but it teases me continuously. That's what the Mariners are to me. A big fat middle finger to my hopes. I need to realize that a team that had the Unit, Griffey, ARod, and Edgar on the same team can't make a world series, this franchise will never get it done.dhdawg said:Seriously? That would be great roster. Will never happen though
My point was simply that if you look at 4 simple moves that you could argue would easily keep them fiscally reasonable (given their revenue streams which I'm conservatively estimating to be around $300M given the attached with simple compounded growth of 5% per year - given the purchase of Root plus a new TV contract that should be very doable). In the attached, major league revenue was over 50% of the annual revenues. If you believe that the Mariners can project to $300M+ in revenues in 2015, then a $150M payroll is very, very reasonable ... and I'm staying far south of that.
http://deadspin.com/5619509/mlb-confidential-part-2-seattle-mariners
If you make those 4 moves though, you're looking at a lineup that is relatively void of any tangible weaknesses and one that you would expect to compete for division/league, and world championships. The only move out of that group that I'd question as being realistic would be the Goldschmidt deal - but at some point, you cross the line where what you are offering is enough to make them (or a team like the Marlins with Stanton) begin to think about whether what is being offered is enough for them to say yes to. -
The one thing more boring than listening to Dave Sims call a Mariners game is reading Tequilla's novels about the Mariners.
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You're assuming a lot by thinking that I'm a Mariners fan ...greenblood said:
Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.Tequilla said:Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.
A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.
I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.
Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is.
To say that I'm jaded by the Mariners would be an understatement -
Disagree.Tequilla said:
You're assuming a lot by thinking that I'm a Mariners fan ...greenblood said:
Dude......I'm just saying, as a Mariner fan, you follow baseball way too closely.Tequilla said:Big problem I have with McCarthy is that he has a tendency to not stay healthy. In my mind, teams that take chances on guys like McCarthy are guys that are trying to hit the lottery to put them in a position to potentially overachieve on the cheap versus trying to win a title because they know they aren't there yet. Basically it's exactly what we did with Chris Young this year.
A great example to me being that the Giants signed Tim Hudson after last year. The Giants have an expectation of competing for the division, league, and WS. They've won a couple in the last 5 years. The risk to them isn't in not winning a WS, it's putting themselves in a position where they are at risk of not competing at that level. A guy like Hudson you know what he's going to give you and that he's going to take the ball every 5th day. When you are competing for titles, you need to have guys on your roster that you know what you are going to get. At that point, you're paying to reduce your volatility.
I'd absolutely be happy to get Santana at 3/35 - but if he is more in the 3/45 range, would you rather pursue him or Lester? And what do you consider a reasonable price for Lester? One thing I'd point out on Lester is that he's made 31+ starts for 7 straight years. I tend to be a big believer that while there is a certain amount of wear and tear on pitchers that accumulates over the years, the balance of your arm injuries comes from poor mechanics and overthrowing. You'll find that most pitchers that tend to stay healthy and the most successful over time tend to have easy throwing mechanics and rely as much, if not more, on movement than they do by overall stuff.
Saunders has shown an ability to increase his on-base % each of the last 3 years - and with the youth on the team, you continue to expect growth from all players. Very few of the players have hit their prime to the point where you know where their ceiling is.
To say that I'm jaded by the Mariners would be an understatement -
I'm excited by the fact that they've put together a season where competent management would take the next step ...
I'll know by February how many games I'll watch next season. -
The bullpen will regress. Same with the starting pitching. The hitting will suck like normal. This is very possibly 09 all over again. A decent season before reverting back to being the Mariners. The Mariners will be the third or fourth best team in the division.
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I had no idea who Aoki was, so I looked him up. 1 HR, that's exactly what the Mariners need. That .280 average probably becomes .260 in Seattle because that's what typically happens. I see some haven't learned from Chone Figgins.
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Sort of agree. But you cannot compare this team to 2009 who had a -52 run differential and was constituted of pretty much all veterans.RoadDawg55 said:The bullpen will regress. Same with the starting pitching. The hitting will suck like normal. This is very possibly 09 all over again. A decent season before reverting back to being the Mariners. The Mariners will be the third or fourth best team in the division.
They need to go out and get hitting or else they'll regress back to .500 or perhaps slightly below that
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So they aren't supposed to sign HR hitters because some haven't learned from jack cust, Corey hart, etc. but they aren't supposed to sign high OBP guys (who gives a flying fuck about batting average) because some fans haven't learned from chone figgins. They also aren't supposed to sign pitchers either because clearly no one has learned from Carlos Silva.RoadDawg55 said:I had no idea who Aoki was, so I looked him up. 1 HR, that's exactly what the Mariners need. That .280 average probably becomes .260 in Seattle because that's what typically happens. I see some haven't learned from Chone Figgins.
I guess they should sign nobody.
Just continue to have a black hole at leadoff
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I *heart* RoadDawg123!RoadDawg55 said:The bullpen will regress. Same with the starting pitching. The hitting will suck like normal. This is very possibly 09 all over again. A decent season before reverting back to being the Mariners. The Mariners will be the third or fourth best team in the division.
Division Title assured!
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Aoki doesn't even have that high of an OBP. He walked 43 times. 1.0 WAR last year. He isn't an OBP machine. A non power hitting OF is the last thing the Mariners need. They need a thumper or GTFO. Austin Jackson has been a better player in his career.dhdawg said:
So they aren't supposed to sign HR hitters because some haven't learned from jack cust, Corey hart, etc. but they aren't supposed to sign high OBP guys (who gives a flying fuck about batting average) because some fans haven't learned from chone figgins. They also aren't supposed to sign pitchers either because clearly no one has learned from Carlos Silva.RoadDawg55 said:I had no idea who Aoki was, so I looked him up. 1 HR, that's exactly what the Mariners need. That .280 average probably becomes .260 in Seattle because that's what typically happens. I see some haven't learned from Chone Figgins.
I guess they should sign nobody.
Just continue to have a black hole at leadoff
Saunders and Ackley could both turn out to be decent. Ackley had a stretch where he looked like the player he was supposed to be coming out of college. Get a right handed corner outfielder to platoon with Saunders and Ackley. Denorfio sucks.
I like Tequilla's idea. Try and trade for Goldschmidt, Votto, or any other great hitter if possible. Signing either Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz, or the Yasmani Thomas (Cuban) would also be good. I would try to hang onto Peterson though. The offense needs a legit middle of the order hitter to go with Cano and Seager. -
Ackley has had stretches before. He has yet to put it together for any significant stretch of time. Austin Jackson was horrible, they need an OFer. Votto's and goldschmidt's are not available in trade anymore. Evan Gattis may be an interesting trade option as well.
.350 obp nowadays is pretty good btw -
I'd tell anybody looking to trade with us that Peterson is off the table ... UNLESS you were talking about a guy like Goldschmidt, Stanton, etc.
I generally agree that big time players aren't often available in trade, but at the same time, there's always a line where the value offered is so much that somebody can't say no.
Personally, the reason I'd throw the farm at Goldschmidt has as much to do with how good he is combined with the hole that he fills in the lineup (RH 4 hitter with power in any park), but he's got a very favorable contract long-term that matches up with Mariners management thinking.
I'm not saying that LaRussa and Dave Stewart would say yes to this deal, but at the same time, I don't know that they'd say no:
Walker + Peterson + Farqhuar/Williamson (possibly solves their need at closer) + Jackson + young OF prospect in A ball (we have a number down there that could be worth a look) for Goldschmidt.
I'd offer the same trade type for Stanton and see if I could get anything for him. If not, I'd see if I could pull off a lesser deal with the Marlins for either Yelich or Ozuna - both very young players showing a huge amount of upside.
