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Mariners baby, hot stove edition

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  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    Fishpo31 said:

    Sounds like they are in the race on Nimmo.

    Where'd you hear this? Great news if so.
  • Fishpo31
    Fishpo31 Member Posts: 2,682
    They were talking about it on MLB network…Toronto and Mets as well
  • chuck
    chuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,839 Swaye's Wigwam
    dnc said:

    Fishpo31 said:

    Sounds like they are in the race on Nimmo.

    Where'd you hear this? Great news if so.
    @Fishpo31 hears all! I've tried to beat him here with news only to realize he already knew or predicted it in a post that I had already read.
  • Fishpo31
    Fishpo31 Member Posts: 2,682
    I geek out on this shit…
  • chuck
    chuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,839 Swaye's Wigwam
    Nimmo isn't really my favorite player still in the picture Actually I'm not sure who is...maybe Reynolds.

    Good addition though if it happens. I wouldn't complain.

    I haven't assembled a list, but reading up on prospects a bit today, it strikes me that there are a number of good SS prospects low in the Ms system. Another, possibly an extreme high end prospect, is expected to sign with Seattle as an international free agent.

    That probably played a role in not wanting to commit so much to a free agent SS. They're young but not 10 years away.
  • Fishpo31
    Fishpo31 Member Posts: 2,682
    Philly and the Pads (and some others) are built to win now, and will blow it up if they don't. The M's have the young core, with some dudes coming, and to make a 10 year commitment to a premium position that will be late 30s-early 40s when the contract ends isn't smart. I would not be surprised to hear that Dip checked in on all the big 4, with less-years offered. Shortstops decline pretty quickly as they age, and if you shell out large, you gotta play them.

    I also heard a rumor, with no confirmation, that J.D. Martinez is in town...
  • HFNY
    HFNY Member Posts: 5,587
    chuck said:

    Nimmo isn't really my favorite player still in the picture Actually I'm not sure who is...maybe Reynolds.

    Good addition though if it happens. I wouldn't complain.

    I haven't assembled a list, but reading up on prospects a bit today, it strikes me that there are a number of good SS prospects low in the Ms system. Another, possibly an extreme high end prospect, is expected to sign with Seattle as an international free agent.

    That probably played a role in not wanting to commit so much to a free agent SS. They're young but not 10 years away.

    It really comes down to ownership's budget and I'm thinking Hancock and Brash will help allow the M's to move on from Flexen or Marco, which would save at least $6 million in 2023 and who knows how much more beyond.

    So do the M's value controllable years (that they'll likely have to buy out after 2023) in Bryan Reynolds and their prospects less or if they value their prospects a ton will they go for Nimmo, who will cost more in 2023 and perhaps 2024 relative to Reynolds? Reynolds will push to have the last two arb years bought out.

    For Reynolds, the Pirates may want Hancock and Ford besides Kelenic so that would simply be too much in my mind. The problem with Nimmo is that he also comes with a qualifying offer so the M's would give up a relatively high draft pick to sign him (besides $17 to $21 million a year).

    Benintendi is cheaper but wouldn't play as good of a LF Nimmo (who could also spell Julio in CF if need be) and doesn't have the same power profile (and Nimmo doesn't have the same power profile as Reynolds).

    Another option would be to do a low-risk 1 year pillow deal with Seattle's own Michael Conforto. He'd be the cheapest and would rotate at RF / DH.

    Lastly, another trade candidate could be Jake McCarthy since he'd be cheaper than Reynolds in terms of salary / prospects needed but he is certainly riskier since he doesn't have much proven production. However, he has proven success against MLB pitching while Kelenic and Trammell don't so

    Best case scenario is that ownership is willing to open the wallet and sign Nimmo to a 3 or 4 year deal but I don't think they will do that (while giving up a relatively high draft pick). So if I had to guess, will sign Conforto to $1 year, $12 million deal and a team option for a 2nd year at $18 million or a $1 million buyout. It is a relatively low risk deal the M's while they have a veteran player with proven production for 2023 in case Kelenic / Trammell / Marlowe can't break through.

    What do others think?
  • chuck
    chuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,839 Swaye's Wigwam
    I think that if they can add someone good to the lineup by dealing any/all of Kelenic, Trammell, Flexen and Gonzales then I'm all for it. That or free agents. I wouldn't trade any more prospects right now unless they see something they don't like in them.

    I'd be alright with Conforto. JD Martinez could be a good short term addition too. Get them both.
  • Fishpo31
    Fishpo31 Member Posts: 2,682
    edited December 2022
    Nimmo back to Mets, 8 years. I’m on the Conforto train (1 year Boras special), and J.D. is interesting to me…

    I think Dip is checking on everybody pertinent to need, but is getting beat by years, which is good, IMO. No 8-10 year albatross contracts, unless it’s the right fit.
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    HFNY said:

    chuck said:

    Nimmo isn't really my favorite player still in the picture Actually I'm not sure who is...maybe Reynolds.

    Good addition though if it happens. I wouldn't complain.

    I haven't assembled a list, but reading up on prospects a bit today, it strikes me that there are a number of good SS prospects low in the Ms system. Another, possibly an extreme high end prospect, is expected to sign with Seattle as an international free agent.

    That probably played a role in not wanting to commit so much to a free agent SS. They're young but not 10 years away.

    It really comes down to ownership's budget and I'm thinking Hancock and Brash will help allow the M's to move on from Flexen or Marco, which would save at least $6 million in 2023 and who knows how much more beyond.

    So do the M's value controllable years (that they'll likely have to buy out after 2023) in Bryan Reynolds and their prospects less or if they value their prospects a ton will they go for Nimmo, who will cost more in 2023 and perhaps 2024 relative to Reynolds? Reynolds will push to have the last two arb years bought out.

    For Reynolds, the Pirates may want Hancock and Ford besides Kelenic so that would simply be too much in my mind. The problem with Nimmo is that he also comes with a qualifying offer so the M's would give up a relatively high draft pick to sign him (besides $17 to $21 million a year).

    Benintendi is cheaper but wouldn't play as good of a LF Nimmo (who could also spell Julio in CF if need be) and doesn't have the same power profile (and Nimmo doesn't have the same power profile as Reynolds).

    Another option would be to do a low-risk 1 year pillow deal with Seattle's own Michael Conforto. He'd be the cheapest and would rotate at RF / DH.

    Lastly, another trade candidate could be Jake McCarthy since he'd be cheaper than Reynolds in terms of salary / prospects needed but he is certainly riskier since he doesn't have much proven production. However, he has proven success against MLB pitching while Kelenic and Trammell don't so

    Best case scenario is that ownership is willing to open the wallet and sign Nimmo to a 3 or 4 year deal but I don't think they will do that (while giving up a relatively high draft pick). So if I had to guess, will sign Conforto to $1 year, $12 million deal and a team option for a 2nd year at $18 million or a $1 million buyout. It is a relatively low risk deal the M's while they have a veteran player with proven production for 2023 in case Kelenic / Trammell / Marlowe can't break through.

    What do others think?
    I'd make that deal. Hancock is easily expendable, we have plenty of high minors arms of similar quality (Miller, Berroa, Dollard). Kelenic probably needs a fresh start, I don't think he's going to pan out here. Ford would hurt to lose as I'm super high on him but you move a guy like that for Reynolds. I'd include Flexen and pay his salary for them too if need be.