First off, Helton is getting unfairly criticized. How can you expect to win with a QB that should be a Sr in high school? If he is winning less than 6 games when JT is a Jr then might, maybe, but people are being completely unfair to that guy. Completely unfair.
But if they do to something stupid and fire him, how many of the Duck's commits become fair game? With a good coach (or at least a good recruiter) I can picture them poaching at least 4 or 5 of those guys to cobble together a last-minute recruiting class.
First off, Helton is getting unfairly criticized. How can you expect to win with a QB that should be a Sr in high school? If he is winning less than 6 games when JT is a Jr then might, maybe, but people are being completely unfair to that guy. Completely unfair.
But if they do to something stupid and fire him, how many of the Duck's commits become fair game? With a good coach (or at least a good recruiter) I can picture them poaching at least 4 or 5 of those guys to cobble together a last-minute recruiting class.
Usc would have to fire him pretty damn quick then, right? Early signing period and all.
Tsio addressed this concept a few pods back iirc. .
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Is Tuputala definitely playing OLB? For some reason I thought he was being recruited at ILB.
You think we're done at OLB? I was really hoping we could pull either Latu or Foskey.
Heimuli is a super important recruit for this class. Maybe the most important given how shitty our depth & talent is at that position. Really hope we can nail down that kid.
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
I would certainly need to get out of the house and purchase some new sweatpants if this happens.
I'm expecting a class of at 24-25 at this point, with at least one more DB guaranteed, one more ILB highly likely, one more DL likely, and everything else up in the air based on who they can get in the boat.
Remaining targets (guys I think we would take a commit from right now):
5 stars McCoy - WR, OLB Ford - WR
4 stars Rhyan - OL (in position to be a 247 5 star) Heimuli - MLB McDuffie - DB Latu - OLB Foskey - OLB Ika - DL Vimahi - OL To'oto'o - MLB
Possible targets (fallbacks or guys they could be recruiting that we're not sure of) Wright - DL (4 star) Steele - DB (4 star) Chase - DB (4 star) Kejuan Markham - DB (247 4 star, composite 3 star) McMillian - DB (3 star) Archer - TE (3 star) LPJ - DB (3 star) Javin Wright (3 star)
Guys I think we add: Heimuli (high confidence) Wright (guessing Ika doesn't want us and we take him) McDuffie (getting nervous since we haven't heard any buzz since his visit, he's been silent on twitter as well outside of liking Calvert's commitment tweet and Hutson's SC decommitment tweet, which says he's been on twitter just hasn't had anything to say. OTOH, In Jimmy Lake I Trust!)
Guys I think aren't coming here: Ika - Hasn't ever seemed that into us. Ikaika's a machine but this one seems unlikely. To'oto'o - Tosh'oto'o Foskey - Expanding your list after visiting UW screams "I haven't found the place I want to be". McCoy - lol Ford - ditto
Guys I have no idea on so we may HASWTKs: Vimahi Rhyan Steele Latu
Guys who would jump at a committable offer: Chase LPJ Wright McMillian
With 5-6 spots to play with, the big recruiting weekends in December to come, then the Poly Bowel, then the chance to Bruce Wayne in on high value targets after the early signing period like we did with Irving and Tuli last year and I'd be disappointed if we don't add at least 4 more 4 stars to the mix. 4 gets you to 15 247 4 stars and 13 composite. That's a great class. And then there's the outside shot at Bandes getting a 5 star, adding Rhyan and him adding a 5th star, or getting either of the 5 star receivers.
DoogItUp.gif
I think that with:
- usc imploding - ucla showing signs of life (but would you play for coach Kelly?) - Oregon doing okay but huge question of herbert (potential post herbert) - Arizona schools lol - stanford not being stanford-like - OSU lol - Washington state trending upward but do you really want to go there? - Utah doing well but that has been traditionally like going backwards for recruits...
Some interesting times
If it is to be believed from Ruth, bru potentially coming for a third unofficial would be huge.
Ford suffering an injury and needing time to recover, would it make sense to go to a school that has stability and allow to to develop that's not a dumpster 🔥 like usc?
Since we have duplication at dl but less at edge save for trice, it would make sense they are making sure wright is 100% before taking him.
Ryhan has supposedly been very low profile on the circuit which fucks up the usual recuiting site assessments of him. He was CB to USC by some lazy people but i have a feeling he's not a usc guy and has spoken very complimentary of uw ...
Feeling doogish I'll counter that expanding your list after visiting (foskey) may just be a reaction to the "take your visits" mantra from Petersen. Remember he's a Poly bowl kid and we have a ton of influence and momentum at that event. Its gonna be lit! Plus hes being recruited as a defensive player ...
So many targets and current commits are going to the poly bowl. Huge event
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
Obk level delusional, but if happens I will donate $129 to have obk banned for a week
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
Obk level delusional, but if happens I will donate $129 to have obk banned for a week
Not delusional this time around. If you were one of these elite recruits would you go to USC over UW right now? You'd have to be stupid as fuck right? Their current coaching staff is trash so if you're going to USC you're either going to have a shit coaching staff that can't develop players and can't game plan or a new coaching staff that you didn't sign up for that might also turn out to be shit. UW is in prime position to be a safety net for these elite recruits that would traditionally go to SC but won't because of the instability there.
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
Obk level delusional, but if happens I will donate $129 to have obk banned for a week
Not delusional this time around. If you were one of these elite recruits would you go to USC over UW right now? You'd have to be stupid as fuck right? Their current coaching staff is trash so if you're going to USC you're either going to have a shit coaching staff that can't develop players and can't game plan or a new coaching staff that you didn't sign up for that might also turn out to be shit. UW is in prime position to be a safety net for these elite recruits that would traditionally go to SC but won't because of the instability there.
U r making big assumptions that these 18/19 years going to make a smart decisions. I am sorry, I am ~30 still make dumb fucking decision, I don’t expect these overglorified and pampered jocks to make good decision
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
We currently have 18 commits (excluding Ford) and your list gets us to 26 if we pull everybody ... also need to keep in mind Jordon Lolohea returning from his mission as well which adds 1 more
That big of a class is doable provided we have roster space as we took 20 in last year’s class and with some of these guys being early enrollees they can be counted backwards.
Then the question is the counting math of of how do you get to 85 ...
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
Screenshotted to make fun of you after signing day!
I feel good about Tuitele and Heimuli maybe a third in Wright or Foskey.
If I give you all of the guys on the list except for Foskey, that puts the number up to 92 PRIOR to any early entrants, couch sales, or retirements
At the early entry level, there are a few candidates:
Taylor Rapp Byron Murphy
Then you have couch sellers and/or medical retirement possibilities:
Quinten Pounds Devin Burleson Jason Scrempos Jordan Chin Myles Rice Isaiah Gilchrist Van Soderberg
If all go you’re looking at room for 2 more ...
However, when you look at the depth, particularly on D, there are also some massive holes that need to be addressed:
1) DL will almost exclusively be comprised of this class and those RS’ing this year + Levi ... finding a grad transfer would be huge here
2) All of the LB depth is going to sit in this class plus those RS’ing this year. You have some upper class guys in Wellington and Beavers (not mentioning Manu) but they struggle to stay healthy. Another area where a grad transfer would be good.
3) Barring a position switch plus Rapp/Murphy leaving early there’s the potential for a massive depth issue in 2020 depending on what Molden/Taylor/McKinney do (do any of them leave early???) ... currently there isn’t anybody on the DB depth chart for 2019 as a sophomore ... so it wouldn’t be the worst thing to add another number here unless we plan on having a MASSIVE 2020 class
BTW, speaking of 2020 class, offense will desperately need numbers at RB and TE ... particularly if we create a void in the 2019 class at TE
There’s also the who makes a potential position switch argument as well ... but given our LB/DB depth chart I think it’s reasonable to expect continued special teams challenges in 2019.
This is cool. But, why don't we all just agree to scrap this composite bullshit? ESPN is terrible and distorts the rankings too much. Just list the 247 scores, and while not perfect, it is better than including the faggots at ESPN who fuck it all up completely.
I would, it's just that the composite is the basis for Bud Elliott's foundational research on the whole "need blue chips on at least half your roster to win the title".
If we're tracking how we rate on his metric then we have to use the composite. If we're using the metric of our choosing then we're basically acknowledging the ratio is BS because it's based on a flawed premise anyway and we can stop worrying about it.
I'm good either way. Personally I much prefer the 247 ratings but obviously they like our? guys better so duh.
Is Tuputala definitely playing OLB? For some reason I thought he was being recruited at ILB.
You think we're done at OLB? I was really hoping we could pull either Latu or Foskey.
Heimuli is a super important recruit for this class. Maybe the most important given how shitty our depth & talent is at that position. Really hope we can nail down that kid.
gunt.
Not that I'm aware of. He seems to project best as a SAM IMO but who knows. FWIW 247 has him as an ILB and Ah You as an OLB.
As far as OLB is concerned I don't think we want to be done necessarily, but unless one of those two you mentioned jumps on bored I don't think we spend another scholly there given the quality we have the potential of pulling at other positions. I don't see us getting Foskey but Latu seems to be a legitimate chance. He would be huge.
Agree completely on Heimuli, especially given the To'oto'o ship seeming to sail. Calvert was a massive get though too. Heimuli is definitely bigger.
I'm feeling good about the top 3. I wanted to put Tuitele, but I am trying not to doog. Last two are my wildcards. Ruth is being coy about someone, he is visiting on 12/15, and we always pull a wild card out late. Also considered Foskey, but we don't really need a TE. I think we take Chase late when we miss on McDuffie and Wright.
Sleepers would be Quentin Moore or a RB not on our radar who has a great senior year and blows up.
This guess wasn't wildly off. I got one correct and nothing wrong (so far). I'm more convinced we're going to take a 2nd RB late to fill up the extra scholarships, so I'll call that a win too.
I think we're done at OL. Bad feeling about Rhyan and the Vimahi ship appears to have sailed. I also feel way less confident on McDuffie than most - he liked a random fan tweet the other day saying he's going to Stanford if he gets admitted, and I think we are a fallback at best. I still think Chase's offer becomes commitable again late. I also think everyone is underplaying our chances with Latu. He's visiting on 12/15, and is deciding at the Poly bowl. We couldn't ask for a better close. If we pull one of the 5 stars, my guess is it is Ford, but I give it no more than a 25% chance.
My guess at a close: Tuitele (if you don't count him already) Heimuli Latu Chase 2nd RB (McMillan?)
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
We currently have 18 commits (excluding Ford) and your list gets us to 26 if we pull everybody ... also need to keep in mind Jordon Lolohea returning from his mission as well which adds 1 more
That big of a class is doable provided we have roster space as we took 20 in last year’s class and with some of these guys being early enrollees they can be counted backwards.
Then the question is the counting math of of how do you get to 85 ...
I listed seven guys which would be a full class of 25. Fowler, McMillan, etc, could be grey shirt candidates or simply passed on if this best case scenario plays out. I don't really care about the numbers. Big boy programs take 25 guys every cycle and figure it out later.
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
Obk level delusional, but if happens I will donate $129 to have obk banned for a week
Not delusional this time around. If you were one of these elite recruits would you go to USC over UW right now? You'd have to be stupid as fuck right? Their current coaching staff is trash so if you're going to USC you're either going to have a shit coaching staff that can't develop players and can't game plan or a new coaching staff that you didn't sign up for that might also turn out to be shit. UW is in prime position to be a safety net for these elite recruits that would traditionally go to SC but won't because of the instability there.
U r making big assumptions that these 18/19 years going to make a smart decisions. I am sorry, I am ~30 still make dumb fucking decision, I don’t expect these overglorified and pampered jocks to make good decision
A bunch of guys already on our commit list chose UW over a struggling USC. Why is it impossible that this trend continues?
UW recruits OKG's which for the most part are pretty smart and mature kids who see the big picture and are capable of making good decisions.
This is cool. But, why don't we all just agree to scrap this composite bullshit? ESPN is terrible and distorts the rankings too much. Just list the 247 scores, and while not perfect, it is better than including the faggots at ESPN who fuck it all up completely.
I would, it's just that the composite is the basis for Bud Elliott's foundational research on the whole "need blue chips on at least half your roster to win the title".
If we're tracking how we rate on his metric then we have to use the composite. If we're using the metric of our choosing then we're basically acknowledging the ratio is BS because it's based on a flawed premise anyway and we can stop worrying about it.
I'm good either way. Personally I much prefer the 247 ratings but obviously they like our? guys better so duh.
I can justify why you can use 247 rankings while still using Bud Elliott's metric that was founded on using composite by writing a huge @Tequilla special of "I was told there would be no maff." or you can just believe me.
TLDR version is that there's "noise" in a specific subset of the data which applies to certain regions/teams(us?) which are themselves outliers and therefore don't have much impact on the correlation value of the overall population/metric. This is not an unusual adjustment for a subset of data that has a measurement error for a population with an established correlation.
TTLDR Statisticians dump outliers and adjust measurements all the tim. It's cul.
Comments
But if they do to something stupid and fire him, how many of the Duck's commits become fair game? With a good coach (or at least a good recruiter) I can picture them poaching at least 4 or 5 of those guys to cobble together a last-minute recruiting class.
Tsio addressed this concept a few pods back iirc. .
Daniel Heimuli: UW lean
Faatui Tuitele: UW lean
Stephon Wright: UW lean IMO
Isaiah Foskey: UW vs Notre Dame, Notre Dame has yet to beat us for a guy so why should I think this time will be different?
Sean Rhyan: USC's O-line is trash. They're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. If Helton isn't fired, their O-line coach definitely will be. Where else is he going to go if O-line player development at USC sucks? Huff is probably the coolest O-line coach recruiting him and probably has the best relationship with him.
Bru McCoy: USC coaching sucks, he and his dad love UW and Coach Pete.
Kyle Ford: USC coaching sucks. He has a bunch of homies on the team at UW already. Would fit right in and knows he'll get developed here.
and maybe Drew Fowler or the 3* BTE who hasn't been offered yet if they have room.
Doog it Up!
Who the fuck is @DNC?
Is Tuputala definitely playing OLB? For some reason I thought he was being recruited at ILB.
You think we're done at OLB? I was really hoping we could pull either Latu or Foskey.
Heimuli is a super important recruit for this class. Maybe the most important given how shitty our depth & talent is at that position. Really hope we can nail down that kid.
gunt.
- usc imploding
- ucla showing signs of life (but would you play for coach Kelly?)
- Oregon doing okay but huge question of herbert (potential post herbert)
- Arizona schools lol
- stanford not being stanford-like
- OSU lol
- Washington state trending upward but do you really want to go there?
- Utah doing well but that has been traditionally like going backwards for recruits...
Some interesting times
If it is to be believed from Ruth, bru potentially coming for a third unofficial would be huge.
Ford suffering an injury and needing time to recover, would it make sense to go to a school that has stability and allow to to develop that's not a dumpster 🔥 like usc?
Since we have duplication at dl but less at edge save for trice, it would make sense they are making sure wright is 100% before taking him.
Ryhan has supposedly been very low profile on the circuit which fucks up the usual recuiting site assessments of him. He was CB to USC by some lazy people but i have a feeling he's not a usc guy and has spoken very complimentary of uw ...
Feeling doogish I'll counter that expanding your list after visiting (foskey) may just be a reaction to the "take your visits" mantra from Petersen. Remember he's a Poly bowl kid and we have a ton of influence and momentum at that event. Its gonna be lit! Plus hes being recruited as a defensive player ...
So many targets and current commits are going to the poly bowl. Huge event
That big of a class is doable provided we have roster space as we took 20 in last year’s class and with some of these guys being early enrollees they can be counted backwards.
Then the question is the counting math of of how do you get to 85 ...
I feel good about Tuitele and Heimuli maybe a third in Wright or Foskey.
Other guys would be massive pulls for this staff.
If I give you all of the guys on the list except for Foskey, that puts the number up to 92 PRIOR to any early entrants, couch sales, or retirements
At the early entry level, there are a few candidates:
Taylor Rapp
Byron Murphy
Then you have couch sellers and/or medical retirement possibilities:
Quinten Pounds
Devin Burleson
Jason Scrempos
Jordan Chin
Myles Rice
Isaiah Gilchrist
Van Soderberg
If all go you’re looking at room for 2 more ...
However, when you look at the depth, particularly on D, there are also some massive holes that need to be addressed:
1) DL will almost exclusively be comprised of this class and those RS’ing this year + Levi ... finding a grad transfer would be huge here
2) All of the LB depth is going to sit in this class plus those RS’ing this year. You have some upper class guys in Wellington and Beavers (not mentioning Manu) but they struggle to stay healthy. Another area where a grad transfer would be good.
3) Barring a position switch plus Rapp/Murphy leaving early there’s the potential for a massive depth issue in 2020 depending on what Molden/Taylor/McKinney do (do any of them leave early???) ... currently there isn’t anybody on the DB depth chart for 2019 as a sophomore ... so it wouldn’t be the worst thing to add another number here unless we plan on having a MASSIVE 2020 class
BTW, speaking of 2020 class, offense will desperately need numbers at RB and TE ... particularly if we create a void in the 2019 class at TE
There’s also the who makes a potential position switch argument as well ... but given our LB/DB depth chart I think it’s reasonable to expect continued special teams challenges in 2019.
If we're tracking how we rate on his metric then we have to use the composite. If we're using the metric of our choosing then we're basically acknowledging the ratio is BS because it's based on a flawed premise anyway and we can stop worrying about it.
I'm good either way. Personally I much prefer the 247 ratings but obviously they like our? guys better so duh.
As far as OLB is concerned I don't think we want to be done necessarily, but unless one of those two you mentioned jumps on bored I don't think we spend another scholly there given the quality we have the potential of pulling at other positions. I don't see us getting Foskey but Latu seems to be a legitimate chance. He would be huge.
Agree completely on Heimuli, especially given the To'oto'o ship seeming to sail. Calvert was a massive get though too. Heimuli is definitely bigger.
I think we're done at OL. Bad feeling about Rhyan and the Vimahi ship appears to have sailed. I also feel way less confident on McDuffie than most - he liked a random fan tweet the other day saying he's going to Stanford if he gets admitted, and I think we are a fallback at best. I still think Chase's offer becomes commitable again late. I also think everyone is underplaying our chances with Latu. He's visiting on 12/15, and is deciding at the Poly bowl. We couldn't ask for a better close. If we pull one of the 5 stars, my guess is it is Ford, but I give it no more than a 25% chance.
My guess at a close:
Tuitele (if you don't count him already)
Heimuli
Latu
Chase
2nd RB (McMillan?)
UW recruits OKG's which for the most part are pretty smart and mature kids who see the big picture and are capable of making good decisions.
TLDR version is that there's "noise" in a specific subset of the data which applies to certain regions/teams(us?) which are themselves outliers and therefore don't have much impact on the correlation value of the overall population/metric. This is not an unusual adjustment for a subset of data that has a measurement error for a population with an established correlation.
TTLDR Statisticians dump outliers and adjust measurements all the tim. It's cul.