Mariners offseason prediction is in.
Comments
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Billy Beane showed that you can compete with spare parts, but if you don't win the last game, does it really matter? He had Zito, Hudson and Mulder (all three in the draft), and without them they lose 100 with that lineup. They didn't talk about that in the movie. Oakland is (was) a graveyard for hitters, if they even had enough money to try to sign guys.
Billy became a legend, because he could field a winning club with a tiny payroll. It seems as if Stanton wants to do the same, with the same results...nonatty gif. It's like going to the casino...there is a chance to win big, you hope to at least break even, but the reality is that you won't.
This is (was) the year for the M's...they scraped and saved, pinched pennies for years, "club-friendly contracts" (throw that in with "controllable", "sustainable", and "54%"), the door is open, and they walked away and took a dump...
I'm as down on the M's as I've ever been right now...They have done everything to position themselves for this, painstakingly, over years/decades. the bride is in the honeymoon suite and ready to go, and they can't get it up and finish the job...fuck 'em... -
How much salary did the M's dump? Was Gonzales $12.5 million, Geno $11 million, and Evan White $7 million? Let's say I'm off and it was only $28 million.
The M's could plug at least one hole by trading for Max Kepler (due $10 mil in 2024 for age 31 season) and maybe even Jorge Polanco (due $10.5 million in 2024 for his age 30 season and $12 million team option for 2025).
$20.5 million could get 120-130 games from Kepler as a mildly plus fielder in RF and Polanco as a plus defender at 2B (can spell Crawford at SS too). Rojas and Urias could platoon at 3B while Ryan Bliss develops at 2B in AAA in case Polanco gets hurt.
M's wouldn't have to give up a top pitching prospect or top position prospect since it is a salary dump for the Twins. They might have to give a better position prospect if they want Minnesota to send along $3 to $5 million.
The M's could then spend the remaining $9.5 million of the freed-up $28 million by trading for Eloy Jimenez to be a thumper at DH. He's due $13.88 million in 2024 for his age 27 season and has a $3 million buyout for 2025 (or $16.5 million team option). Sox could send along $3 million and Jimenez for a pretty good M's prospect. Someone like OF Aidan Smith should get it done.
Otherwise, they can try to sign Jorge Soler to a 3 year, $45 million deal and try to back-load it so that they only pay him $11 or $12 million in 2024.
Short term contracts left on Kepler, Polanco, and Jimenez should appeal to ownership to plug some holes while allowing for more seasoning time to prospects (OF Clase, 3B/1B Locklear, SS/2B Bliss) and holding onto the pitching. Dylan Moore could then spell Kepler against LHP in RF and same for Canzano in RF while the other OF could be Marlowe or Trammell (still have hope for him). -
I like this plan. It's not enough, but it's a better effort than I expect out of them.HFNY said:How much salary did the M's dump? Was Gonzales $12.5 million, Geno $11 million, and Evan White $7 million? Let's say I'm off and it was only $28 million.
The M's could plug at least one hole by trading for Max Kepler (due $10 mil in 2024 for age 31 season) and maybe even Jorge Polanco (due $10.5 million in 2024 for his age 30 season and $12 million team option for 2025).
$20.5 million could get 120-130 games from Kepler as a mildly plus fielder in RF and Polanco as a plus defender at 2B (can spell Crawford at SS too). Rojas and Urias could platoon at 3B while Ryan Bliss develops at 2B in AAA in case Polanco gets hurt.
M's wouldn't have to give up a top pitching prospect or top position prospect since it is a salary dump for the Twins. They might have to give a better position prospect if they want Minnesota to send along $3 to $5 million.
The M's could then spend the remaining $9.5 million of the freed-up $28 million by trading for Eloy Jimenez to be a thumper at DH. He's due $13.88 million in 2024 for his age 27 season and has a $3 million buyout for 2025 (or $16.5 million team option). Sox could send along $3 million and Jimenez for a pretty good M's prospect. Someone like OF Aidan Smith should get it done.
Otherwise, they can try to sign Jorge Soler to a 3 year, $45 million deal and try to back-load it so that they only pay him $11 or $12 million in 2024.
Short term contracts left on Kepler, Polanco, and Jimenez should appeal to ownership to plug some holes while allowing for more seasoning time to prospects (OF Clase, 3B/1B Locklear, SS/2B Bliss) and holding onto the pitching. Dylan Moore could then spell Kepler against LHP in RF and same for Canzano in RF while the other OF could be Marlowe or Trammell (still have hope for him). -
Thanks, they could always add a bat before the deadline if the pitching carries them and the hitting does well enough at the right times.chuck said:
I like this plan. It's not enough, but it's a better effort than I expect out of them.HFNY said:How much salary did the M's dump? Was Gonzales $12.5 million, Geno $11 million, and Evan White $7 million? Let's say I'm off and it was only $28 million.
The M's could plug at least one hole by trading for Max Kepler (due $10 mil in 2024 for age 31 season) and maybe even Jorge Polanco (due $10.5 million in 2024 for his age 30 season and $12 million team option for 2025).
$20.5 million could get 120-130 games from Kepler as a mildly plus fielder in RF and Polanco as a plus defender at 2B (can spell Crawford at SS too). Rojas and Urias could platoon at 3B while Ryan Bliss develops at 2B in AAA in case Polanco gets hurt.
M's wouldn't have to give up a top pitching prospect or top position prospect since it is a salary dump for the Twins. They might have to give a better position prospect if they want Minnesota to send along $3 to $5 million.
The M's could then spend the remaining $9.5 million of the freed-up $28 million by trading for Eloy Jimenez to be a thumper at DH. He's due $13.88 million in 2024 for his age 27 season and has a $3 million buyout for 2025 (or $16.5 million team option). Sox could send along $3 million and Jimenez for a pretty good M's prospect. Someone like OF Aidan Smith should get it done.
Otherwise, they can try to sign Jorge Soler to a 3 year, $45 million deal and try to back-load it so that they only pay him $11 or $12 million in 2024.
Short term contracts left on Kepler, Polanco, and Jimenez should appeal to ownership to plug some holes while allowing for more seasoning time to prospects (OF Clase, 3B/1B Locklear, SS/2B Bliss) and holding onto the pitching. Dylan Moore could then spell Kepler against LHP in RF and same for Canzano in RF while the other OF could be Marlowe or Trammell (still have hope for him).
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Oh man I just noted that I missed the mention of Marlowe and Trammell. I might have taken a half or even full star from my rating had I seen that the first time. Abandon your hope for Trammell and instead hope that they aren't lame enough to keep teitting him out there and pretending he's still a prospect. Yikes man. Know when to give up.HFNY said:
Thanks, they could always add a bat before the deadline if the pitching carries them and the hitting does well enough at the right times.chuck said:
I like this plan. It's not enough, but it's a better effort than I expect out of them.HFNY said:How much salary did the M's dump? Was Gonzales $12.5 million, Geno $11 million, and Evan White $7 million? Let's say I'm off and it was only $28 million.
The M's could plug at least one hole by trading for Max Kepler (due $10 mil in 2024 for age 31 season) and maybe even Jorge Polanco (due $10.5 million in 2024 for his age 30 season and $12 million team option for 2025).
$20.5 million could get 120-130 games from Kepler as a mildly plus fielder in RF and Polanco as a plus defender at 2B (can spell Crawford at SS too). Rojas and Urias could platoon at 3B while Ryan Bliss develops at 2B in AAA in case Polanco gets hurt.
M's wouldn't have to give up a top pitching prospect or top position prospect since it is a salary dump for the Twins. They might have to give a better position prospect if they want Minnesota to send along $3 to $5 million.
The M's could then spend the remaining $9.5 million of the freed-up $28 million by trading for Eloy Jimenez to be a thumper at DH. He's due $13.88 million in 2024 for his age 27 season and has a $3 million buyout for 2025 (or $16.5 million team option). Sox could send along $3 million and Jimenez for a pretty good M's prospect. Someone like OF Aidan Smith should get it done.
Otherwise, they can try to sign Jorge Soler to a 3 year, $45 million deal and try to back-load it so that they only pay him $11 or $12 million in 2024.
Short term contracts left on Kepler, Polanco, and Jimenez should appeal to ownership to plug some holes while allowing for more seasoning time to prospects (OF Clase, 3B/1B Locklear, SS/2B Bliss) and holding onto the pitching. Dylan Moore could then spell Kepler against LHP in RF and same for Canzano in RF while the other OF could be Marlowe or Trammell (still have hope for him).
Marlowe I actually liked but he was regressing with lightening speed when they sent him back down. I don't think he's an answer to anything either except in desperate times.
If they had a reasonable bench they would've made the playoffs. Trade middling prospects for a couple of solid bench guys and never suit up Trammell or Haggerty again! -
I'm not sure I understand the Mitch Garver signing. Would he play just 10-20 games behind the plate and cost $12 million per year? Might as well spend a little more and get Jorge Soler at DH, no?
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He's a good DH too, but I'm not sure how he is that much better, 8 million better, than Tom Murphy. I guess the difference may be that they think Murphy is fubar health-wise.HFNY said:I'm not sure I understand the Mitch Garver signing. Would he play just 10-20 games behind the plate and cost $12 million per year? Might as well spend a little more and get Jorge Soler at DH, no?
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Not that Garver is the epitome of durability though.
I'm still not sure who they get for 1 1/2 outfielders though. Joc Pederson on a 2 year deal or Pham on a 1-year deal could work. -
I like France to Minn for Kepler and sign Hoskins or maybe Soler.HFNY said:Not that Garver is the epitome of durability though.
I'm still not sure who they get for 1 1/2 outfielders though. Joc Pederson on a 2 year deal or Pham on a 1-year deal could work. -
I'd do that but ownership like France because he's cheap. How much more do they have to spend? Kepler is due $10 million and a pillow contract for Hoskins would likely run another $10 million.
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I actually think they're willing to spend that much. Kepler is a net increase of about $4 over France. They spent $12 on Garver, add $4 for Kepler, and say $15 for one of those other guys. That's $31. I've heard they were willing to add $35 after the salary dump. That leaves a little bit for pitching or whatever.HFNY said:I'd do that but ownership like France because he's cheap. How much more do they have to spend? Kepler is due $10 million and a pillow contract for Hoskins would likely run another $10 million.
I'd be pretty damn happy with that offseason really, which is why it won't happen.
I think this is really possible. France doesn't really fit with Garver and one of Hoskins/Soler. If they aren't willing to trade him they'd have to give up pitching to get an outfielder and a second upgrade bat. Why trade pitching if you don't have to? -
Thanks, I didn't know that France was making $6 million in 2024.chuck said:
I actually think they're willing to spend that much. Kepler is a net increase of about $4 over France. They spent $12 on Garver, add $4 for Kepler, and say $15 for one of those other guys. That's $31. I've heard they were willing to add $35 after the salary dump. That leaves a little bit for pitching or whatever.HFNY said:I'd do that but ownership like France because he's cheap. How much more do they have to spend? Kepler is due $10 million and a pillow contract for Hoskins would likely run another $10 million.
I'd be pretty damn happy with that offseason really, which is why it won't happen.
I chuckled at your last sentence. -
That's a guess on France's arbitration salary. Might be $7mil.HFNY said:
Thanks, I didn't know that France was making $6 million in 2024.chuck said:
I actually think they're willing to spend that much. Kepler is a net increase of about $4 over France. They spent $12 on Garver, add $4 for Kepler, and say $15 for one of those other guys. That's $31. I've heard they were willing to add $35 after the salary dump. That leaves a little bit for pitching or whatever.HFNY said:I'd do that but ownership like France because he's cheap. How much more do they have to spend? Kepler is due $10 million and a pillow contract for Hoskins would likely run another $10 million.
I'd be pretty damn happy with that offseason really, which is why it won't happen.
I chuckled at your last sentence. -
Does baseball need a hard cap as well as a spending floor?
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The bare- minimum for 2024 is $19.24M…the A’s were a tick over double that last year.HFNY said:Does baseball need a hard cap as well as a spending floor?
I think that you’re gonna see a cap, sooner than later. The proliferation of “fuck you” money is flexing right now, and guysm want to win…
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You think the players will agree to a cap?Fishpo31 said:
The bare- minimum for 2024 is $19.24M…the A’s were a tick over double that last year.HFNY said:Does baseball need a hard cap as well as a spending floor?
I think that you’re gonna see a cap, sooner than later. The proliferation of “fuck you” money is flexing right now, and guysm want to win… -
I just responded to the question of hard cap/floor…I’ve been anticipating this for a while now. The “haves” have pushed it to the limit…as for the players, I would imagine that an “adapt or die” convo is going to be had soon, if it hasn’t already. Lots of potential Oakland situations…not whether owners can afford to be competitive, but do they want to spend to be competitive?BleachedAnusDawg said:
You think the players will agree to a cap?Fishpo31 said:
The bare- minimum for 2024 is $19.24M…the A’s were a tick over double that last year.HFNY said:Does baseball need a hard cap as well as a spending floor?
I think that you’re gonna see a cap, sooner than later. The proliferation of “fuck you” money is flexing right now, and guysm want to win… -
Well, did NOT see this coming…Robbie Ray to the Giants for Haniger and Anthony Descalfini. Wonder if they go after Snell now…
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Holy shit. I need to read up on the details and I know fuck all about that pitcher. My first reaction is that I'm happy with it though. Ray was not helping Seattle this year, in fact all he was doing was sucking up $25mil with no guarantee he'll ever regain mid/top of rotation form.Fishpo31 said:Well, did NOT see this coming…Robbie Ray to the Giants for Haniger and Anthony Descalfini. Wonder if they go after Snell now…
Haniger is a good bat IF healthy and I think there's a net $$ gain for the Ms.
And Luke Raley for Caballero if the buzz is true. I'm loving this one.
Maybe I'm just starved for some Ms news.
Yes I know UW is playing for the natty and I should be dooging not mooging. I can do two things though. -
I’ve heard them sniffing around Santana…IF they get him or a comp it gets a LH bat in the mix with the France / Garver / Haniger /Canzone platoon/ DH-a-palooza…
Add to the mix…
Sustainable
Control
Club friendly
Flexibility … -
I heard that Raley played a fair amount of 1b last season. 20 or 30 games. That's already a lot of DH/1b/platoon candidates. I don't think Santana is in the picture now unless they're thinking about moving one of the guys you listed.Fishpo31 said:I’ve heard them sniffing around Santana…IF they get him or a comp it gets a LH bat in the mix with the France / Garver / Haniger /Canzone platoon/ DH-a-palooza…
The biggest realistic upgrades I see are still at 2b/3b or IF/utility. If Moore isn't the worst player on the roster when it's all said and done then they've screwed up. To be more specific, if Haggerty is still on the roster they've screwed up. -
https://x.com/Mariners/status/1743745253088297426?s=20
Luke Raley homer clips. I think it's all of them from 2023. This is one big, strong dude. Short swing and he just kills it.
I don't even have Twitter or whatever this came from so no, I don't know how to embed a tweet. -
Polanco is one I kind of hoped for. I'd like to see something come along to replace Topa plus add another leverage reliever. I think this is a better team now than 2023 but part of that depends on GF getting a lot of production from three guys, Polanco, Haniger, and Garver, who don't seem likely to stay healthy all season.
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Ahhh, you got me Chuck! I got burned by having to look up how to spell DesClafani…
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In addition, I found it interesting that Dip is kicking the tires on Cease. They could have a dominant staff with him, or Snell, who is currently twisting in the wind, looking to cash in…
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Wouldn't that be something? I'd do Woo for Cease. I'm afraid Chicago thinks Cease is worth Woo plus. I actually think it might be the opposite, and Seattle should get more than him for Woo given the salaries, control, and the year Cease is coming off, but that's probably not reality.
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https://twitter.com/marinersontap/status/1753899733851021729?s=46&t=jTmjeYWeDAtiejFr_5QtRg
24 years old, no free agency til 2029, and fuckin nasty stuff. Good arm for right now, potential future closer.
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Amazing. He's filthy and just coming into his own with years of club control. They got the guy they wanted for mid prospects and he's cheap for years.
