A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
This is actually correct. I was wrong on my first read of the criteria, as H2H doesn't matter in a multi team tie if all three teams haven't played each other.
It's fucking stupid, since we should win in a three way tie between us, Oregon, and Utah, but it instead goes to the "best record against common opponent" criteria, which becomes a complete rabbit hole of conference record comparisons. The tl;dr is that Cal has to beat UCLA for us to win on that criteria.
The most likely outcome and probably best outcome for UW is that Oregon beats OSU but loses to SC, which should get us into a good bowl if not the rose. Think it matters how far up we ascend and Oregon falls in the rankings.
The most likely outcome and probably best outcome for UW is that Oregon beats OSU but loses to SC, which should get us into a good bowl if not the rose. Think it matters how far up we ascend and Oregon falls in the rankings.
USC making the playoffs likely gets us a NY6 bowl if we win out. If Oregon wins the conference then it's a total crapshoot where we land.
If USC makes the playoff and we beat Cuog we go to the Rose Bowl. (Assuming USC plays Oregon).
We have a better shot at another NY6 bowl if TCU does not make the playoffs. Otherwise it looks dicey- we’d need to pass Penn State in the rankings, and if the PAC-12 champ is not USC, we’d need to pass them too.
Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.
Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.
Agreed. No chance the committee moves Oregon below us barring an absolute pants shitting in the CCG. They're rightfully hesitant to punish a team for a CCG appearance.
A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.
The Bowls don’t pick by rankings. They could but it’s not a requirement. They pick whomever they want.
Our Apple Cup win and Oregon's CG loss would have to result in us being ranked ahead of them to get to the rose bowl. What's cuog now, a top 30 win on the road? Oregon probably only drops 2 spots.
The Bowls don’t pick by rankings. They could but it’s not a requirement. They pick whomever they want.
"Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to play in the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference."
I'm guessing they used the word "traditionally" to signal that it's not contractually obligated, but given that the RB has never deviated from it, I think you can safely assume that they'll pick the next highest ranked P12 team should USC go to the playoffs.
We have a lot riding on Beavis. If they beat Oregon next week that sends 9-3 Utah to the title game. If USC exacts revenge on the Yoots for their only loss then they go to the playoff at 12-1 and 10-2 UW > 9-4 Utah and 9-3 Oregon and 9-3 UCLA for a NY6 invite. This is the path. Utah is not losing to Colorado and UCLA is not losing to Cal.
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As of now that's UCLA which Utah and UW lost to and Oregon beat.
Basically Oregon SC are in.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
1. Colorado beats Utah or
2. Cal beats UCLA.
[PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022 Football Tiebreakers Language&text=Win percentage against the next,), proceeding through the standings.)
It's fucking stupid, since we should win in a three way tie between us, Oregon, and Utah, but it instead goes to the "best record against common opponent" criteria, which becomes a complete rabbit hole of conference record comparisons. The tl;dr is that Cal has to beat UCLA for us to win on that criteria.
We have a better shot at another NY6 bowl if TCU does not make the playoffs. Otherwise it looks dicey- we’d need to pass Penn State in the rankings, and if the PAC-12 champ is not USC, we’d need to pass them too.
"Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to play in the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference."
I'm guessing they used the word "traditionally" to signal that it's not contractually obligated, but given that the RB has never deviated from it, I think you can safely assume that they'll pick the next highest ranked P12 team should USC go to the playoffs.
https://tournamentofroses.com/2022-rose-bowl-game-returns-to-traditional-format/
Go Beavs!