P12 Championship line going up

flatus said:

bisonduck said:

greenblood said:

HFNY said:

greenblood said:

Bet volume has been trending Washington while total dollars is trending Oregon. It’s the public picking Washington and sharps picking Oregon. Both have been known to be wrong in big ways, just providing the data trend. It’s about a 63-37 split in bet volume favoring Washington and the points.

It's my understanding there would be no math on this bored.

But I also thought that the sharps tend to come in the day before a game once the line has settled and they see an arbitrage opportunity (I concede that I am certainly not a "sharp").

Sharps do a lot of things. It was large sum bets that originally drove the spread from -7.5 to -9.5. Large bets are assumed as sharps even though there are a lot of rich idiots who just get the itch and don’t have much knowledge. But general the larger the bet, the more likely it’s a sharp. They make big bets when they see an advantage. What I think will happen is they already got the Ducks at -7.5. I have a feeling they are hoping this gets bet to -10.5, then they go hard on Washington. That creates the arbitrage that if Oregon wins by between 8-10 points, the bettor wins on both tickets.

That’s what i heard on a podcast as well. Expect this to breach 10 and swing the other way. If it doesn’t get bet down, there’s something going on like an injury or something of that nature.

Do tell?

LaZoris said:

There are way more rich idiots betting than one would think. A lot of them bet online so I don;t know if several 6 digit bets move the line if it's done on fan duel or draft kings.
Know someone who is a book... He said some idiot called him and bet $30k on Alabama money line. They were favored -13 over Auburn at the time.

$30k on the moneyline was -1600 odds. Total payout was $1875. Risk $30k to win $1875 and it took a 4th&31 to do it. He should have live bet $100 late in 4th Qtr when Bama had less that 1% to win he would have got a way better payout.

There are thousands and thousands of fucktards out there who bet like "sharps" - not sure if those dipshits move the line tho.

CSB

greenblood said:

Bet volume has been trending Washington while total dollars is trending Oregon. It’s the public picking Washington and sharps picking Oregon. Both have been known to be wrong in big ways, just providing the data trend. It’s about a 63-37 split in bet volume favoring Washington and the points.

greenblood said:

HFNY said:

greenblood said:

Bet volume has been trending Washington while total dollars is trending Oregon. It’s the public picking Washington and sharps picking Oregon. Both have been known to be wrong in big ways, just providing the data trend. It’s about a 63-37 split in bet volume favoring Washington and the points.

It's my understanding there would be no math on this bored.

But I also thought that the sharps tend to come in the day before a game once the line has settled and they see an arbitrage opportunity (I concede that I am certainly not a "sharp").

Sharps do a lot of things. It was large sum bets that originally drove the spread from -7.5 to -9.5. Large bets are assumed as sharps even though there are a lot of rich idiots who just get the itch and don’t have much knowledge. But general the larger the bet, the more likely it’s a sharp. They make big bets when they see an advantage. What I think will happen is they already got the Ducks at -7.5. I have a feeling they are hoping this gets bet to -10.5, then they go hard on Washington. That creates the arbitrage that if Oregon wins by between 8-10 points, the bettor wins on both tickets.