Inflation
Comments
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After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?
Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?
When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know. -
At least for the time being, energy prices is my biggest leading indicator. Think about it this way, the higher the energy prices the more expensive it is to move goods. More expensive to move goods the more that gets passed to consumers. This combined with anything that skews supply/demand are the fastest ways in my mind to see price spikes.creepycoug said:After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?
Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?
When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.
One thing to think about going forward is how does energy change with 5G and the implications within supply chains. There’s some real exciting and semi terrifying implications out there that have significant implications to speed/ease. -
Yep. Everything is just like "yeah its covid, whatcha gonna do"dflea said:
Supply chains are fubar everywhere and everyone has covid 19 as an excuse, even if it isn't really the problem. It's pretty tough to do any kind of forecasting with so much uncertainty in the economy, too. I'm not surprised there are supply issues across a wide spectrum of industries, as I've seen factory closures and transportation issues I haven't seen before.creepycoug said:
This occurred to me as well. Supply chain is still not operating at optimal pace.Tequilla said:
Big question I have to things right now would be shortages or price increases driven due to COVID impacts. Definitely plenty of evidence of price gouging out there (look at food delivery services as an example)PurpleThrobber said:
If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.Tequilla said:I may view inflation differently than others
1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure
2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers
3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways
The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?
Government chaos exiting Watergate
Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC
Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc
Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.
Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.
The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc
Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels
I'll be very happy to see this shit blow over so we can get back to fucking things up all on our own again. -
Depress yourself by reading http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-chartscreepycoug said:After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?
Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?
When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.
Should be interesting reading the next year, esp if the rumors of a $2 trillion “stimulus” are true.
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I’ll give it a read.HoustonHusky said:
Depress yourself by reading http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-chartscreepycoug said:After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?
Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?
When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.
Should be interesting reading the next year, esp if the rumors of a $2 trillion “stimulus” are true. -
If this alternate CPI is an accurate measure of inflation, and I don't believe this for a second, it means that the economy has been contracting in the mid single digits in real terms over the entire Trump administration.HoustonHusky said:
Depress yourself by reading http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-chartscreepycoug said:After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?
Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?
When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.
Should be interesting reading the next year, esp if the rumors of a $2 trillion “stimulus” are true. -
Lot longer than that.
There is no perfect calculation that defines inflation...I’d argue it’s bracketed by the insanely optimistic case (govt #s) and some of these pessimistic cases. But the argument that sure house prices are way up so people just move into a 1 bedroom apartment and have the same standard of living because they can buy a bigger TV seems a little strange to me. -
I'd argue that the government number is way closer to the truth than this number, but I take your point.HoustonHusky said:Lot longer than that.
There is no perfect calculation that defines inflation...I’d argue it’s bracketed by the insanely optimistic case (govt #s) and some of these pessimistic cases. But the argument that sure house prices are way up so people just move into a 1 bedroom apartment and have the same standard of living because they can buy a bigger TV seems a little strange to me.
Out of curiosity, do you believe with the general point of this chart that inflation has been substantially higher than the government has reported since the great recession, or is it a more recent occurrence? -
The adjustments were made in 1980 and 1990 because they didn't like the result of the calculations...goes back further than the last couple of years or even since 2009. Some of the adjustments were legit because of how things have changed (financing for example), but when you have an answer in mind its easy to come up with the calculation that rationalizes it.Woof said:
I'd argue that the government number is way closer to the truth than this number, but I take your point.HoustonHusky said:Lot longer than that.
There is no perfect calculation that defines inflation...I’d argue it’s bracketed by the insanely optimistic case (govt #s) and some of these pessimistic cases. But the argument that sure house prices are way up so people just move into a 1 bedroom apartment and have the same standard of living because they can buy a bigger TV seems a little strange to me.
Out of curiosity, do you believe with the general point of this chart that inflation has been substantially higher than the government has reported since the great recession, or is it a more recent occurrence?
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Inflation is controlled, encouraged, and determined by the Rothschild Federal Reserve Private Banking Cartel, which was illegally created on the aptly named Jekyll Island by a cabal of treasonous politicians and bankers last century. The Federal Reserve and its system of inflation and debt slavery was created to control the United States from the City of London. Money backed by nothing. Richard Nixon then sold the World Fiat Currency, which resulted in the creation of the Euro. The Federal Reserve encourages inflation because its publicly stated mission is to achieve 'maximum employment.' It's private mission is of course, slavery. In the United States, because of the inflation encouraged by the Federal Reserve, it now typically takes two adults working full time in a household to buy the same things that could be bought by one working adult in the past.
The Central Bank system is currently collapsing, which is why Professor Schwab, Prince Charles and other demonic folks in positions of unchecked power are advocating for the Great Reset and the culling of billions.
The Federal Reserve is an intractable fiend, along with the other Central Banks. The US Petro Dollar will be the World Currency no longer, as nations like Russia have joined BRICS to re-create money backed by gold.
