Inflation

greenblood

Inflation is all relative. It just matters how quickly we print new money in relation to other countries. I'm surprised the US just doesn't make one giant monetary dump, and pay off their Chinese debt, while we still have monetary power.

creepycoug

HoustonHusky said:

Inflation is here...look at house prices and the stock market. Hell I bought a new iPad for my kid early this year for $220...cheapest one now is $300. It won’t hit what is measured for inflation (food and disposable goods) until you have supply/demand issues or more likely dollar value issues.

Interest rates can’t get back to normal...govt can’t afford for them two. We print more money and show instability and the market will try, at which point the Fed will step in and try and cap them (probably around 2-3% max) which will drop the dollar value. Which will start showing up In more and more things as inflation which won’t get measured by the CPI.

Fun little cycle we are entering.

Interesting. Hadn't thought of that. Of course, cheap free money means buying up and so demand is frothy, at least in part due to that help of almost free financing. But is there more substance driving housing prices beyond cheap 'other people's' money? It's one thing to have cheap financing; it's another to make the payment. Jobless numbers creeping up may portend a weakening of that particular variable.

creepycoug

Kaepsknee said:

PurpleThrobber said:

Tequilla said:

I may view inflation differently than others

1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

Government chaos exiting Watergate

Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.

And prices have jumped on most everything 15-20%. Dairy being the exception.

Is this true? That looks like inflation to me.

creepycoug

RaceBannon said:

The "Carter" inflation was oil plain and simple

I bought gas at 30 cents or so a gallon in high school. It jumped to 70 cents. Doesn't sound like all that much it is a double. Then a boycott and shortage. And more hikes

Lot of folks like to blame deficit spending for Vietnam and the Great Society but I think it was oil

Goldwater ran on curbing spending in 1964. Been kind of a quadrennial event ever since

We almost need a thread on Jimmy Carter. Because I can't think of a President is at once more liked and maligned that this guy. His presidency is almost the dictionary reference point to when things were fucked up, and the blame is laid at his feet.

I have no idea; never studied. Sounds like a good topic.

Tequilla

PurpleThrobber said:

Tequilla said:

I may view inflation differently than others

1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

Government chaos exiting Watergate

Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.

Big question I have to things right now would be shortages or price increases driven due to COVID impacts. Definitely plenty of evidence of price gouging out there (look at food delivery services as an example)

HoustonHusky

creepycoug said:

HoustonHusky said:

Inflation is here...look at house prices and the stock market. Hell I bought a new iPad for my kid early this year for $220...cheapest one now is $300. It won’t hit what is measured for inflation (food and disposable goods) until you have supply/demand issues or more likely dollar value issues.

Interest rates can’t get back to normal...govt can’t afford for them two. We print more money and show instability and the market will try, at which point the Fed will step in and try and cap them (probably around 2-3% max) which will drop the dollar value. Which will start showing up In more and more things as inflation which won’t get measured by the CPI.

Fun little cycle we are entering.

Interesting. Hadn't thought of that. Of course, cheap free money means buying up and so demand is frothy, at least in part due to that help of almost free financing. But is there more substance driving housing prices beyond cheap 'other people's' money? It's one thing to have cheap financing; it's another to make the payment. Jobless numbers creeping up may portend a weakening of that particular variable.

Its a divided economy...those working in more of the higher-paying jobs are fine. Those not are fucked. Everyone in the former have funds, and most of them are deciding living in a house outside of town is a better proposition than living in town in an apartment...apartment rent prices are dropping in a lot of urban areas. Added bonus is that those dropping prices according to our wonderful govt calc offset any increase in prices in other areas.

The fact HGTV is pretty much 24/7 house-flipping shows is also a pretty good indicator.

Really want to look at interesting numbers go look at current inflation numbers under the 1980 and 1990 calculation methods...

creepycoug

Tequilla said:

PurpleThrobber said:

Tequilla said:

I may view inflation differently than others

1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

Government chaos exiting Watergate

Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.

Big question I have to things right now would be shortages or price increases driven due to COVID impacts. Definitely plenty of evidence of price gouging out there (look at food delivery services as an example)

This occurred to me as well. Supply chain is still not operating at optimal pace.

Pitchfork51

dflea said:

RaceBannon said:

The "Carter" inflation was oil plain and simple

I bought gas at 30 cents or so a gallon in high school. It jumped to 70 cents. Doesn't sound like all that much it is a double. Then a boycott and shortage. And more hikes

Lot of folks like to blame deficit spending for Vietnam and the Great Society but I think it was oil

Goldwater ran on curbing spending in 1964. Been kind of a quadrennial event ever since

Energy costs can really take the wind out of an economy's sails. Ass, gas, or grass - nobody rides for free.

Ride or die old man

Swaye

dflea said:

RaceBannon said:

The "Carter" inflation was oil plain and simple

I bought gas at 30 cents or so a gallon in high school. It jumped to 70 cents. Doesn't sound like all that much it is a double. Then a boycott and shortage. And more hikes

Lot of folks like to blame deficit spending for Vietnam and the Great Society but I think it was oil

Goldwater ran on curbing spending in 1964. Been kind of a quadrennial event ever since

Energy costs can really take the wind out of an economy's sails. Ass, gas, or grass - nobody rides for free.

This is the smartest you have ever appeared to me. Adam "Dflea" Smith?

dflea

creepycoug said:

Tequilla said:

PurpleThrobber said:

Tequilla said:

I may view inflation differently than others

1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

Government chaos exiting Watergate

Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.

Big question I have to things right now would be shortages or price increases driven due to COVID impacts. Definitely plenty of evidence of price gouging out there (look at food delivery services as an example)

This occurred to me as well. Supply chain is still not operating at optimal pace.

Supply chains are fubar everywhere and everyone has covid 19 as an excuse, even if it isn't really the problem. It's pretty tough to do any kind of forecasting with so much uncertainty in the economy, too. I'm not surprised there are supply issues across a wide spectrum of industries, as I've seen factory closures and transportation issues I haven't seen before.

I'll be very happy to see this shit blow over so we can get back to fucking things up all on our own again.