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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Inflation

13

Comments

  • greenbloodgreenblood Posts: 10,883
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    edited January 11
    Inflation is all relative. It just matters how quickly we print new money in relation to other countries. I'm surprised the US just doesn't make one giant monetary dump, and pay off their Chinese debt, while we still have monetary power.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,500
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    Inflation is here...look at house prices and the stock market. Hell I bought a new iPad for my kid early this year for $220...cheapest one now is $300. It won’t hit what is measured for inflation (food and disposable goods) until you have supply/demand issues or more likely dollar value issues.

    Interest rates can’t get back to normal...govt can’t afford for them two. We print more money and show instability and the market will try, at which point the Fed will step in and try and cap them (probably around 2-3% max) which will drop the dollar value. Which will start showing up In more and more things as inflation which won’t get measured by the CPI.

    Fun little cycle we are entering.

    Interesting. Hadn't thought of that. Of course, cheap free money means buying up and so demand is frothy, at least in part due to that help of almost free financing. But is there more substance driving housing prices beyond cheap 'other people's' money? It's one thing to have cheap financing; it's another to make the payment. Jobless numbers creeping up may portend a weakening of that particular variable.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,500
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    Kaepsknee said:

    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.


    And prices have jumped on most everything 15-20%. Dairy being the exception.
    Is this true? That looks like inflation to me.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,500
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    The "Carter" inflation was oil plain and simple

    I bought gas at 30 cents or so a gallon in high school. It jumped to 70 cents. Doesn't sound like all that much it is a double. Then a boycott and shortage. And more hikes

    Lot of folks like to blame deficit spending for Vietnam and the Great Society but I think it was oil

    Goldwater ran on curbing spending in 1964. Been kind of a quadrennial event ever since

    We almost need a thread on Jimmy Carter. Because I can't think of a President is at once more liked and maligned that this guy. His presidency is almost the dictionary reference point to when things were fucked up, and the blame is laid at his feet.

    I have no idea; never studied. Sounds like a good topic.
  • TequillaTequilla Posts: 16,710
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    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.

    Big question I have to things right now would be shortages or price increases driven due to COVID impacts. Definitely plenty of evidence of price gouging out there (look at food delivery services as an example)
    creepycoug
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Posts: 4,536
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    Inflation is here...look at house prices and the stock market. Hell I bought a new iPad for my kid early this year for $220...cheapest one now is $300. It won’t hit what is measured for inflation (food and disposable goods) until you have supply/demand issues or more likely dollar value issues.

    Interest rates can’t get back to normal...govt can’t afford for them two. We print more money and show instability and the market will try, at which point the Fed will step in and try and cap them (probably around 2-3% max) which will drop the dollar value. Which will start showing up In more and more things as inflation which won’t get measured by the CPI.

    Fun little cycle we are entering.

    Interesting. Hadn't thought of that. Of course, cheap free money means buying up and so demand is frothy, at least in part due to that help of almost free financing. But is there more substance driving housing prices beyond cheap 'other people's' money? It's one thing to have cheap financing; it's another to make the payment. Jobless numbers creeping up may portend a weakening of that particular variable.
    Its a divided economy...those working in more of the higher-paying jobs are fine. Those not are fucked. Everyone in the former have funds, and most of them are deciding living in a house outside of town is a better proposition than living in town in an apartment...apartment rent prices are dropping in a lot of urban areas. Added bonus is that those dropping prices according to our wonderful govt calc offset any increase in prices in other areas.

    The fact HGTV is pretty much 24/7 house-flipping shows is also a pretty good indicator.

    Really want to look at interesting numbers go look at current inflation numbers under the 1980 and 1990 calculation methods...


    creepycoughaiePitchfork51
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,500
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    Tequilla said:

    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.

    Big question I have to things right now would be shortages or price increases driven due to COVID impacts. Definitely plenty of evidence of price gouging out there (look at food delivery services as an example)
    This occurred to me as well. Supply chain is still not operating at optimal pace.
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Posts: 20,580
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    dflea said:

    The "Carter" inflation was oil plain and simple

    I bought gas at 30 cents or so a gallon in high school. It jumped to 70 cents. Doesn't sound like all that much it is a double. Then a boycott and shortage. And more hikes

    Lot of folks like to blame deficit spending for Vietnam and the Great Society but I think it was oil

    Goldwater ran on curbing spending in 1964. Been kind of a quadrennial event ever since

    Energy costs can really take the wind out of an economy's sails. Ass, gas, or grass - nobody rides for free.
    Ride or die old man
    creepycoug
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,500
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    After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?

    Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?

    When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.
    YellowSnowHoustonHusky
  • TequillaTequilla Posts: 16,710
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    After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?

    Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?

    When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.

    At least for the time being, energy prices is my biggest leading indicator. Think about it this way, the higher the energy prices the more expensive it is to move goods. More expensive to move goods the more that gets passed to consumers. This combined with anything that skews supply/demand are the fastest ways in my mind to see price spikes.

    One thing to think about going forward is how does energy change with 5G and the implications within supply chains. There’s some real exciting and semi terrifying implications out there that have significant implications to speed/ease.
    dfleacreepycougWoof
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Posts: 20,580
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    dflea said:

    Tequilla said:

    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.

    Big question I have to things right now would be shortages or price increases driven due to COVID impacts. Definitely plenty of evidence of price gouging out there (look at food delivery services as an example)
    This occurred to me as well. Supply chain is still not operating at optimal pace.
    Supply chains are fubar everywhere and everyone has covid 19 as an excuse, even if it isn't really the problem. It's pretty tough to do any kind of forecasting with so much uncertainty in the economy, too. I'm not surprised there are supply issues across a wide spectrum of industries, as I've seen factory closures and transportation issues I haven't seen before.

    I'll be very happy to see this shit blow over so we can get back to fucking things up all on our own again.

    Yep. Everything is just like "yeah its covid, whatcha gonna do"
    creepycougdflea
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Posts: 4,536
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    After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?

    Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?

    When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.

    Depress yourself by reading http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

    Should be interesting reading the next year, esp if the rumors of a $2 trillion “stimulus” are true.

    pawzcreepycoug
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,500
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    After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?

    Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?

    When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.

    Depress yourself by reading http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

    Should be interesting reading the next year, esp if the rumors of a $2 trillion “stimulus” are true.

    I’ll give it a read.
  • WoofWoof Posts: 753
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    After all of these good posts, I'm still left with the basic question: when do I know that I'm looking at inflation? What bundle of goods represents the right cross-section of the economy to tell us?

    Is COVID making too much smoke, as has been alluded in the thread, to really tell? I.e., cranked up demand and fucked up supply lines, etc.?

    When do you know? Or, is it not a very precise concept in economics? I really don't know.

    Depress yourself by reading http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

    Should be interesting reading the next year, esp if the rumors of a $2 trillion “stimulus” are true.

    If this alternate CPI is an accurate measure of inflation, and I don't believe this for a second, it means that the economy has been contracting in the mid single digits in real terms over the entire Trump administration.
    dflea
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Posts: 4,536
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    Lot longer than that.

    There is no perfect calculation that defines inflation...I’d argue it’s bracketed by the insanely optimistic case (govt #s) and some of these pessimistic cases. But the argument that sure house prices are way up so people just move into a 1 bedroom apartment and have the same standard of living because they can buy a bigger TV seems a little strange to me.
    creepycougpawz
  • WoofWoof Posts: 753
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    Lot longer than that.

    There is no perfect calculation that defines inflation...I’d argue it’s bracketed by the insanely optimistic case (govt #s) and some of these pessimistic cases. But the argument that sure house prices are way up so people just move into a 1 bedroom apartment and have the same standard of living because they can buy a bigger TV seems a little strange to me.

    I'd argue that the government number is way closer to the truth than this number, but I take your point.

    Out of curiosity, do you believe with the general point of this chart that inflation has been substantially higher than the government has reported since the great recession, or is it a more recent occurrence?
    creepycoug
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Posts: 4,536
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    Woof said:

    Lot longer than that.

    There is no perfect calculation that defines inflation...I’d argue it’s bracketed by the insanely optimistic case (govt #s) and some of these pessimistic cases. But the argument that sure house prices are way up so people just move into a 1 bedroom apartment and have the same standard of living because they can buy a bigger TV seems a little strange to me.

    I'd argue that the government number is way closer to the truth than this number, but I take your point.

    Out of curiosity, do you believe with the general point of this chart that inflation has been substantially higher than the government has reported since the great recession, or is it a more recent occurrence?
    The adjustments were made in 1980 and 1990 because they didn't like the result of the calculations...goes back further than the last couple of years or even since 2009. Some of the adjustments were legit because of how things have changed (financing for example), but when you have an answer in mind its easy to come up with the calculation that rationalizes it.
    creepycoug
  • Inflation is controlled, encouraged, and determined by the Rothschild Federal Reserve Private Banking Cartel, which was illegally created on the aptly named Jekyll Island by a cabal of treasonous politicians and bankers last century. The Federal Reserve and its system of inflation and debt slavery was created to control the United States from the City of London. Money backed by nothing. Richard Nixon then sold the World Fiat Currency, which resulted in the creation of the Euro. The Federal Reserve encourages inflation because its publicly stated mission is to achieve 'maximum employment.' It's private mission is of course, slavery. In the United States, because of the inflation encouraged by the Federal Reserve, it now typically takes two adults working full time in a household to buy the same things that could be bought by one working adult in the past.

    The Central Bank system is currently collapsing, which is why Professor Schwab, Prince Charles and other demonic folks in positions of unchecked power are advocating for the Great Reset and the culling of billions.

    The Federal Reserve is an intractable fiend, along with the other Central Banks. The US Petro Dollar will be the World Currency no longer, as nations like Russia have joined BRICS to re-create money backed by gold.

    Woof
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