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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Inflation

24

Comments

  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Posts: 25,666
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    We bought our house at 11 percent in 87

    They should have got into carpet laying

    10.25% in 1990 - and that was a deal. Until it wasn't.

    And, if I recall, pretty close to 20% down.

    It really was harder - it's hard - to buy a house back in the day. You had to have some capital and your shit together.
    We played the 'gift' letter game from parents for several thousands of dollars of it. And by 'gift', I can still recall the stink eye/you better fucking pay us back look from Ma Throbber who gave no fucks about what the 'gift letter' said.



    creepycougpawzRaceBannon
  • TequillaTequilla Posts: 16,710
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    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels
    creepycougYellowSnow
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,500
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments

    We bought our house at 11 percent in 87

    They should have got into carpet laying

    10.25% in 1990 - and that was a deal. Until it wasn't.

    And, if I recall, pretty close to 20% down.

    It really was harder - it's hard - to buy a house back in the day. You had to have some capital and your shit together.
    We played the 'gift' letter game from parents for several thousands of dollars of it. And by 'gift', I can still recall the stink eye/you better fucking pay us back look from Ma Throbber who gave no fucks about what the 'gift letter' said.



    I got a gift letter too from Pops. No stink eye. He knew he was never seeing a dime of it ever again.
    RaceBannondfleaBleachedAnusDawg
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,500
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    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    Thanks. Good post.

    But do those individual sector/product/commodity scenarios portend overall inflation? I think the inflation people talk about when this comes up ( @UW_Doog_Bot and @godawgst ) is more systemic inflation. That is, the dollar itself loses value, so everything costs more. The ultimate boogie man being post WWI Germany and having to dip into life savings to eat.


    Also, connect the dots for me on hoarding cash and inflation. Isn't that taking dollars out of the system and hence reducing supply? I didn't quite understand that one.

    Agree with you about rates. This just doesn't seem sustainable, but I can't back that up, and I freely admit it is not consistent with my waiting-for-Godot view on inflation.
    YellowSnow
  • pawzpawz Posts: 9,517
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    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    Thanks. Good post.

    But do those individual sector/product/commodity scenarios portend overall inflation? I think the inflation people talk about when this comes up ( @UW_Doog_Bot and @godawgst ) is more systemic inflation. That is, the dollar itself loses value, so everything costs more. The ultimate boogie man being post WWI Germany and having to dip into life savings to eat.


    Also, connect the dots for me on hoarding cash and inflation. Isn't that taking dollars out of the system and hence reducing supply? I didn't quite understand that one.

    Agree with you about rates. This just doesn't seem sustainable, but I can't back that up, and I freely admit it is not consistent with my waiting-for-Godot view on inflation.
    We? have to maintain the world's reserve currency status. The day that ends is the day we are FUBAR.
    WWIII
    creepycoug
  • TequillaTequilla Posts: 16,710
    10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments Seventh Anniversary

    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    Thanks. Good post.

    But do those individual sector/product/commodity scenarios portend overall inflation? I think the inflation people talk about when this comes up ( @UW_Doog_Bot and @godawgst ) is more systemic inflation. That is, the dollar itself loses value, so everything costs more. The ultimate boogie man being post WWI Germany and having to dip into life savings to eat.


    Also, connect the dots for me on hoarding cash and inflation. Isn't that taking dollars out of the system and hence reducing supply? I didn't quite understand that one.

    Agree with you about rates. This just doesn't seem sustainable, but I can't back that up, and I freely admit it is not consistent with my waiting-for-Godot view on inflation.
    So think about the conditions of post WW1 Germany ... the surrender conditions were so punitive that effectively conditions were set to be ripe for just disastrous results. And in a vacuum those surrender conditions made some sense because the goal was to build in preventive measures to keep Germany from making future war. Instead what happened is Germany crumbled under the conditions and The Great Depression (which is a subject I need to do some greater reading on as I can see some parallels of post WW1 exuberance and the post COVID world) leading to someone like Hitler having an audience. People like Hitler need favorable conditions to get people to say “what do we have to lose” to really gain power and influence. That’s probably fair to look at with the US if we can’t find a more moderate middle and continue down the polarizing extreme ends of the spectrum ... I don’t see that ending up well.

    Hoarding cash has a bit of a circular reference because hoarding cash takes down the money multiplier effects. Effectively money is just the medium of facilitating trades. If you reduce the number of trades then goods and services are produced in smaller levels as demand decreases. As people need more for those goods to make ends meet the prices then go up. So you get a big time circular relationship.

    Rates will eventual normalize but I think we’ve learned enough to know that letting rates get in the high single digits or higher isn’t healthy and will fight like hell to create policy and conditions to avoid that.
    creepycougYellowSnowpawzFire_Marshall_Bill
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Posts: 4,536
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    Inflation is here...look at house prices and the stock market. Hell I bought a new iPad for my kid early this year for $220...cheapest one now is $300. It won’t hit what is measured for inflation (food and disposable goods) until you have supply/demand issues or more likely dollar value issues.

    Interest rates can’t get back to normal...govt can’t afford for them two. We print more money and show instability and the market will try, at which point the Fed will step in and try and cap them (probably around 2-3% max) which will drop the dollar value. Which will start showing up In more and more things as inflation which won’t get measured by the CPI.

    Fun little cycle we are entering.
    godawgstcreepycoug
  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Posts: 25,666
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    edited January 11
    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.

  • godawgstgodawgst Posts: 1,456
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    Inflation is here...look at house prices and the stock market. Hell I bought a new iPad for my kid early this year for $220...cheapest one now is $300. It won’t hit what is measured for inflation (food and disposable goods) until you have supply/demand issues or more likely dollar value issues.

    Interest rates can’t get back to normal...govt can’t afford for them two. We print more money and show instability and the market will try, at which point the Fed will step in and try and cap them (probably around 2-3% max) which will drop the dollar value. Which will start showing up In more and more things as inflation which won’t get measured by the CPI.

    Fun little cycle we are entering.

    This is where I'm at also. Gov't can't afford to calcuklate/tell world what true inflation rate is, nor allow interest rates to ever get back to even 5%.

    HoustonHuskycreepycoug
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Posts: 4,536
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    This guy had an interesting take on it...don't agree everything he says (his oil take is way off...say what you want about shale destroying capital and my God has it...if oil gets back to $60 a BBL everyone will be throwing money at it because interest rates are artificially low and everyone has cash and is looking for some way to get a return on it).

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huge-reversal-louis-gave-warns-inflation-will-come-back-vengeance
    creepycoug
  • dfleadflea Posts: 6,209
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    The annual inflation rate for 2020 will be about 1.2%.

    Not panic time.
    creepycougWoofFire_Marshall_Bill
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 64,753
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    The other side of inflation was that CDs were paying high interest. I think that is where I got confused on the 18%. As a newly minted management asshole the owner told me he could make 18% doing nothing so I had to out preform that to make it worth the risk. No pressure
    creepycoug
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Posts: 12,079
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    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    Thanks. Good post.

    But do those individual sector/product/commodity scenarios portend overall inflation? I think the inflation people talk about when this comes up ( @UW_Doog_Bot and @godawgst ) is more systemic inflation. That is, the dollar itself loses value, so everything costs more. The ultimate boogie man being post WWI Germany and having to dip into life savings to eat.


    Also, connect the dots for me on hoarding cash and inflation. Isn't that taking dollars out of the system and hence reducing supply? I didn't quite understand that one.

    Agree with you about rates. This just doesn't seem sustainable, but I can't back that up, and I freely admit it is not consistent with my waiting-for-Godot view on inflation.
    We? have to maintain the world's reserve currency status. The day that ends is the day we are FUBAR.
    And we were much closer to losing that than people know in 2009. I’ve been told that as long as you’re under the 125% debt to GDP ratio, you’re still good.

    I was also told that there would be no maff as well. So here we are.
    YellowSnowcreepycoug
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Posts: 23,109
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    The other side of inflation was that CDs were paying high interest. I think that is where I got confused on the 18%. As a newly minted management asshole the owner told me he could make 18% doing nothing so I had to out preform that to make it worth the risk. No pressure

    What's so fucked up right now is the real interest rate on cash on the bank. Even if inflation is forecast at 1% the best case scenario is your green backs not losing value.
    creepycougpawz
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Posts: 12,079
    5,000 Up Votes 5,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments Seventh Anniversary

    Tequilla said:

    I may view inflation differently than others

    1) I view the leading indicators more as an early warning system vs an absolute measure

    2) Supply and Demand still are big drivers

    3) I tend to lean more into the conditions that have driven prior events and look for takeaways

    The last big major area of major inflation took place in the late 70s ... what were some of the conditions then?

    Government chaos exiting Watergate

    Oil shortages/rationing with OPEC

    Effectively the collapse of the steel mills, etc

    Inflation to me happens when you start having supply shortages (whether in specific goods/services ... in particular energy) or people start hoarding cash reducing supply because they are worried about tomorrow.

    Recent political situation is worth monitoring and in particular actions from fully Dem led system that has the ability to put in some policies that could create inflationary pressures.

    The one that I’m most interested in paying attention to is energy because while adoption of more green energy is coming (and in some respects way faster than people think), we also need to be very careful at going too fast too quick, forcing the switch at high cost points, etc

    Rates will almost assuredly increase over the next 5-10 years but not to crazy levels but more back to standard normalized levels

    If you haven't been to your local grocery store lately, you should. There are shortages aplenty. Shelves aren't quite 3rd world country decimated (yet) but it ain't every shelf full and faced up. Big holes on lots of items.


    And prices have jumped on most everything 15-20%. Dairy being the exception.
    creepycoug
  • WoofWoof Posts: 753
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    The Fed cutting interest rates in 2019 was extremely short sighted. Fuck those guys for caving so easily. That combined with the fact that a majority of the stimulus + tax cuts + Fed moves directly contributed to the boom in equities and housing that is making things feel very strange.

    Full transparency, I think most inflation hawks are completely full of shit. You always start hearing it the second a Democrat prez is elected, but hasn't come to fruition since Carter. The world was a bit different then. If the Dems controlled the senate like 60-40 and the house like 250-160 I might be worried, but a nearly 50/50 split in both houses means we're going to see plenty of centrist spending bills, and the AOC wing of the party isn't going to get any of their shit passed that would actually make me worry about inflation.

    @YellowSnow is right about needing to keep the dollar the world's currency reserve. Cutting the federal budget a bit would help solidify that, and maybe the GOP will remember after 4 years of outrageous spending that they are supposed to be fiscal hawks.
    YellowSnowdfleacreepycoug
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 64,753
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    The "Carter" inflation was oil plain and simple

    I bought gas at 30 cents or so a gallon in high school. It jumped to 70 cents. Doesn't sound like all that much it is a double. Then a boycott and shortage. And more hikes

    Lot of folks like to blame deficit spending for Vietnam and the Great Society but I think it was oil

    Goldwater ran on curbing spending in 1964. Been kind of a quadrennial event ever since
    creepycoug
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Posts: 23,109
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    The "Carter" inflation was oil plain and simple

    I bought gas at 30 cents or so a gallon in high school. It jumped to 70 cents. Doesn't sound like all that much it is a double. Then a boycott and shortage. And more hikes

    Lot of folks like to blame deficit spending for Vietnam and the Great Society but I think it was oil

    Goldwater ran on curbing spending in 1964. Been kind of a quadrennial event ever since

    What was the role of Nixon talking us? off the gold standard? That was before the 1973 war in the ME if I recall.
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