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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Inflation

I can hear the printing machine at the US mint humming away as I type this. This topic is covered in another thread, but two of our resident smart guys on the economis started trading blows and left the rest of us behind. Once "core rate" started being thrown around, I began feeling like our beautiful savage @Swaye and tapped out.

As gentlemen of means (sorry @Doog_de_Jour ), we? should all have a view on inflation for cocktail party talk. Why will this likely happen or likely not happen? The Economis 101 model we all learned in Kane Hall tells us an excess supply of anything should depress value, but it's not that simple.

- my unsophisticated thought has been that there's no place else to go. the US is still the place people want to be (at least economically); and the US dollar is the official proxy for that economy. someone challenged that the economies of India and China are potential stand-alone economies that might eventually be the alternative that buries us?

- the other no-problem explanation is simple: we've been hearing about this forever, and Ted.Knight.waiting.gif. The economy itself just handles it.

@UW_Doog_Bot , economosist extraordinaire, and @godawgst , Fin Tech master of data, are your huckleberries here. May we reprise this one? And dumb it down a little this tim? Asking for a fren.

YellowSnow
«134

Comments

  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Posts: 20,570
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    I have no idea what you are talking about
  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Posts: 33,318
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    The one thing that has always been great about America has been its stability and slow-moving judicial system. It created an environment of consistency and dependability.

    I'm not sure how stable things are going to be going forward, and how that will impact the economy.

    If we continue to print money and resume giving billions away to Iran, etc, we can't maintain the predominant position indefinitely. Or can we?
    creepycoug
  • dfleadflea Posts: 6,209
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    I've seen a lot of indicators of inflation not lead to inflation over the years.

    No party in power every worries about inflation. Worrying about inflation is for the losers, and they regularly do.

    At least that's what it looks like to me.
    creepycougPitchfork51Woof
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,484
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    The one thing that has always been great about America has been its stability and slow-moving judicial system. It created an environment of consistency and dependability.

    I'm not sure how stable things are going to be going forward, and how that will impact the economy.

    If we continue to print money and resume giving billions away to Iran, etc, we can't maintain the predominant position indefinitely. Or can we?

    A recently-deceased academic from Stanford GSB ... nationally known value investor who hung around Munger and Buffet and those guys ... used to say that legal stability in the US was a key differentiator for our country. Of course, it's imperfect and people get away with shit, but generally speaking, powerful people caught fucking around get araigned just like anybody else. But overall it works pretty well and that's why people have confidence in capital markets here. It's a commonly held view with which I tend to agree.

    The give-away money part is another question. I think that falls into the same category of response. It doesn't matter for the dollar as long as the US economy is still the show and dollar represents a proxy for that economy. Others may disagree.
    YellowSnowdflea
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,484
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    edited January 10
    dflea said:

    I've seen a lot of indicators of inflation not lead to inflation over the years.

    No party in power every worries about inflation. Worrying about inflation is for the losers, and they regularly do.

    At least that's what it looks like to me.

    It's an important question with which to wrestle, because if @UW_Doog_Bot is wrong and @godawgst is right, we are in for a world of shit.

    These DC riots will seem like tame shit if we? wake up one day and bread costs $12.50 / loaf and a single block of ramen noodles goes for $4.50. At that point the pours (the real ones, not the pour-mouth @YellowSnow s) will not be able to adequately feed themselves and the shit will hit the fan.

    And nobody, even the riches, will be buying flooring from @RaceBannon and his partner. Flooring? Did you say flooring? In this economy? Flooring? [Mora.gif]
    YellowSnowdflea
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 64,747
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    Inflation was around 18 percent at one point late 70s early 80s

    YellowSnowcreepycougdflea
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,484
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    Inflation was around 18 percent at one point late 70s early 80s

    A partner at the firm I joined out of LS told me that when he and his classmates at UVa law graduated in the 70s, nobody ever imagined owning a house. Imagine. UVa law - top 10 law school - expectations were they'd rent forever because of interest rates.

    We'll? never let it go that far again because housing is such a yuge factor in the health of the economy.
    YellowSnowdflea
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 64,747
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    We bought our house at 11 percent in 87

    They should have got into carpet laying
    creepycougYellowSnowdflea
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,484
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments

    We bought our house at 11 percent in 87

    They should have got into carpet laying

    I think rates were fluctuating between 6 and 8 over a few year period when I bought my first and second house. When 15-year money went down to 4.5% I refied and held. It wasn't that long ago when rates dipping into the 5% range was like "Holy Fuck!" Refi-mania.
    YellowSnowRaceBannonWoofdflea
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Posts: 23,105
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    edited January 10
    I got a 30 year fixed on my White Wakanda house for 2.95 %. Then I got a letter from Amex on my high yield savings account that my interest rate was down to .5 % APR. I need to to nut up like @Swaye and buy more watches.
    creepycougdfleaBleachedAnusDawgSwaye
  • dfleadflea Posts: 6,209
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes Seventh Anniversary

    dflea said:

    I've seen a lot of indicators of inflation not lead to inflation over the years.

    No party in power every worries about inflation. Worrying about inflation is for the losers, and they regularly do.

    At least that's what it looks like to me.

    It's an important question with which to wrestle, because if @UW_Doog_Bot is wrong and @godawgst is right, we are in for a world of shit.

    These DC riots will seem like tame shit if we? wake up one day and bread costs $12.50 / loaf and a single block of ramen noodles goes for $4.50. At that point the pours (the real ones, not the pour-mouth @YellowSnow s) will not be able to adequately feed themselves and the shit will hit the fan.

    And nobody, even the riches, will be buying flooring from @RaceBannon and his partner. Flooring? Did you say flooring? In this economy? Flooring? [Mora.gif]
    @UW_Doog_Bot isn't wrong.

    hth

    creepycougWoof
  • dfleadflea Posts: 6,209
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    edited January 10

    Inflation was around 18 percent at one point late 70s early 80s

    I'm pretty sure inflation topped out at around 13-14% right around 1980. But that's 40 straight years of inflation fear mongering by both sides that hasn't materialized in reality.

    This year's events could change things some, but I have faith in our fiat dollar.
    creepycougWoof
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,484
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    dflea said:

    dflea said:

    I've seen a lot of indicators of inflation not lead to inflation over the years.

    No party in power every worries about inflation. Worrying about inflation is for the losers, and they regularly do.

    At least that's what it looks like to me.

    It's an important question with which to wrestle, because if @UW_Doog_Bot is wrong and @godawgst is right, we are in for a world of shit.

    These DC riots will seem like tame shit if we? wake up one day and bread costs $12.50 / loaf and a single block of ramen noodles goes for $4.50. At that point the pours (the real ones, not the pour-mouth @YellowSnow s) will not be able to adequately feed themselves and the shit will hit the fan.

    And nobody, even the riches, will be buying flooring from @RaceBannon and his partner. Flooring? Did you say flooring? In this economy? Flooring? [Mora.gif]
    @UW_Doog_Bot isn't wrong.

    hth

    I'm not sure he's posted a single thing with which I have disagreed thus far.
    dflea
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 64,747
    Swaye's Wigwam 50000 Comments 10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes
    edited January 10
    dflea said:

    Inflation was around 18 percent at one point late 70s early 80s

    I'm pretty sure inflation topped out at around 13-14% right around 1980. But that's 40 straight years of inflation fear mongering by both sides that hasn't materialized in reality.

    This year's events could change things some, but I have faith in our fiat dollar.
    Oil prices doubled twice in the 70s.

    We survived
    creepycougYellowSnowdflea
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,484
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments

    dflea said:

    Inflation was around 18 percent at one point late 70s early 80s

    I'm pretty sure inflation topped out at around 13-14% right around 1980. But that's 40 straight years of inflation fear mongering by both sides that hasn't materialized in reality.

    This year's events could change things some, but I have faith in our fiat dollar.
    Oil prices doubled twice in the 70s.

    We survived
    I still remember the license plate game. And I was a wee lad.
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 64,747
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    Looks like it peaked at 14.4 percent


    creepycougdflea
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 64,747
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    Ford wanted to Whip Inflation Now in 75 and 76

    The WIN button
    creepycougYellowSnow
  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Posts: 25,652
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    edited January 10

    We bought our house at 11 percent in 87

    They should have got into carpet laying

    10.25% in 1990 - and that was a deal. Until it wasn't.

    And, if I recall, pretty close to 20% down.

    creepycoug
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,484
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments

    We bought our house at 11 percent in 87

    They should have got into carpet laying

    10.25% in 1990 - and that was a deal. Until it wasn't.

    And, if I recall, pretty close to 20% down.

    It really was harder - it's hard - to buy a house back in the day. You had to have some capital and your shit together.
    FireCohenFire_Marshall_Bill
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