Honestly I think HH brings more value to the world than fucking pollsters lol
If they were only mostly incorrect predictive tools they wouldn't have millions of dollars swirling around them.
Like it or not, people (and outcomes) are manipulated by them... they are highly valuable, just not if you are sitting in the corner playing connect four by yourself.
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to sound
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to sound
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to sound
Trafalgar’s methodology was the only one that predicted Trump winning FL, PA and MI in 2016 and DeSantis winning FL in 2018 but I’m sure Silver has fixed everything now and Trafalgar magically screwed everything up this time.
The Michigan #s don’t surprise me...having friends up there they absolutely despise the Governor and hated NAFTA.
That said, not sure his model will capture all the dead voting...
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to sound
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to sound
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
I don’t think politics has a definitive answer, it’s heavily based on worldview and what news source you trust/rely on. I think the game of who wins politics is interesting and I love stats and data. I wrote my main college essay on practical interpretations of sports and business statistics. So yes I can explain what a crosstab is, but I’m not gonna get worked up about who wins or loses. And to your point you’re right that Trump has gained among both black and Hispanic voters, but those 538 numbers you cite have Trump down 71 points among black voters and the trafalgar crosstabs have him down 36. 35 point swing from the consensus? Just because Michigan is for some reason susceptible? If Trump wins anything close to that percent among black voters than he wins an outrageous number of EVs. 350+ which could happen but not super likely.
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to sound
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
I don’t think politics has a definitive answer, it’s heavily based on worldview and what news source you trust/rely on. I think the game of who wins politics is interesting and I love stats and data. I wrote my main college essay on practical interpretations of sports and business statistics. So yes I can explain what a crosstab is, but I’m not gonna get worked up about who wins or loses. And to your point you’re right that Trump has gained among both black and Hispanic voters, but those 538 numbers you cite have Trump down 71 points among black voters and the trafalgar crosstabs have him down 36. 35 point swing from the consensus? Just because Michigan is for some reason susceptible? If Trump wins anything close to that percent among black voters than he wins an outrageous number of EVs. 350+ which could happen but not super likely.
Don’t think the African American vote will be universal, but do think it will be higher for Trump in certain areas than expected. Michigan will be one due to the previous comments and the fact you have a very good African American Republican candidate for Senate there.
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
He will just do the same thing that all forecasters do... "well I did say there was a ~10% that Trump would win"
AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
He will just do the same thing that all forecasters do... "well I did say there was a ~10% that Trump would win"
FWIW the betting markets have Trump at 35%
Not too long ago the betting markets were close to 50/50.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week’s odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on Monday.
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to sound
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
Have to say, this was the first thing that occurred to me as I read the post. Have no idea what the right answer is here; I've not historically been a follower of polling, other than I remember how Trump completely outran them in 2016.
Comments
Like it or not, people (and outcomes) are manipulated by them... they are highly valuable, just not if you are sitting in the corner playing connect four by yourself.
Now, LEAVE
The Michigan #s don’t surprise me...having friends up there they absolutely despise the Governor and hated NAFTA.
That said, not sure his model will capture all the dead voting...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
FWIW the betting markets have Trump at 35%
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week’s odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on Monday.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
November 9th
The science is settled. Trump was an anomaly. Was it the pollsters or the pollees?
Is he still an anomaly? Stay tuned