Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.
It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...
Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.
It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...
Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.
It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...
Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
so kind of a SWAG
yeah, a small one and one that will likely favor republicans this time around.
Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.
Repubs voted Trump 95% in the primary...one of the highest % for a candidate running for reelection. There are some Repubs that won’t vote for him, but it’s not a significant amount.
They are going to really have to cheat in Philly...the rest of the state is much more favorable to Trump this time around. It is going to be egregious, and they still will likely get away with it.
If Trump wins Wisconsin and Minnesota it won’t matter, but that is asking a lot.
Tiny sample size, Philly ballot laundering is off the charts, no chance in PA.
Trump is going to have to win WI, MI, AZ
Trump has PA rather easily, but thar’s just my gut.
A sample size of 400 is large for a single state like PA. Most national polls sample ~1000 out of 340 million people. 400 in PA, which has less than 13 million citizens.
Statistically, the PA poll should be more accurate than any national poll.
Tiny sample size, Philly ballot laundering is off the charts, no chance in PA.
Trump is going to have to win WI, MI, AZ
Trump has PA rather easily, but thar’s just my gut.
A sample size of 400 is large for a single state like PA. Most national polls sample ~1000 out of 340 million people. 400 in PA, which has less than 13 million citizens.
Statistically, the PA poll should be more accurate than any national poll.
Any sample size above 30 should be statistically relevant IF it is random enough in its sample selection.
Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
Played around with an electoral map today. Nothing groundbreaking in my analysis, but I think PA and NC are keys. And if Trump loses one of Michigan and Wisconsin he has to win both PA and NC to win re-election. Just my two cents.
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
Comments
So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.
Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?
but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...
Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pollster-frank-luntz-if-trump-defies-polls-again-in-2020-my-profession-is-done
They are going to really have to cheat in Philly...the rest of the state is much more favorable to Trump this time around. It is going to be egregious, and they still will likely get away with it.
If Trump wins Wisconsin and Minnesota it won’t matter, but that is asking a lot.
The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that.
Boats with trump flags out all over Juanita Bay in Saturday around lunch time.
Trump is going to have to win WI, MI, AZ
A sample size of 400 is large for a single state like PA. Most national polls sample ~1000 out of 340 million people. 400 in PA, which has less than 13 million citizens.
Statistically, the PA poll should be more accurate than any national poll.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...