Same could be said for most of us I guess. This comes down to about 6 states. The rest of us are just voting for local ordinances and state senators and other bullshit.
No resource will be more plentiful among Republicans on November 4 than scapegoats for Trump’s defeat if the current polling holds. The media, Never Trumpers, phantom illegal aliens voting, Chinese hackers surreptitiously tinkering with the vote totals — it’ll be a free-for-all.
But don’t sleep on the possibility of Brad Parscale becoming a top villain for how he mismanaged the campaign’s gigantic war chest before being demoted. Combined with the RNC, Team Trump raised $1.5 billion — billion — since the start of 2019, and at the start of October all they had to show for it was an eight-point deficit and a little more than $60 million in the bank.
The temptation here is to say, “We’ll see what voters think about that on November 3.” If Trump’s all-base-all-the-time strategy succeeds in bringing out Fox viewers and talk-radio fans and assorted other working-class whites in numbers that obliterate Biden’s polling advantage, he’ll seem crazy like a fox. In an instant, the conventional wisdom will shift from “What the hell is this guy doing?” to “I can’t believe we underestimated this guy again. He understands the electorate better than anyone else.”
But if the polls are right and he loses, especially if he loses big, the view that he ran an historically bad campaign will be commonly held across all demographics, including the GOP. Even populist righties, the audience he’s forever pandering to, will find it convenient to believe that Trump lost because he chose the wrong strategy (to the extent that they’re not all-in on the idea that Biden cheated). That’s because populists will be scrambling to explain away his defeat in terms of anything *except* that populism might be unpopular. “Biden cheated!” Or “the media defeated Trump!” Or “he sent too many tweets!” Or, yes, even “he ran a garbage campaign! A smarter populist will win next time.”
And you know what? A smarter populist might.
The point isn’t that Trump has no chance to win because he’s run a bad campaign. He does have a chance. The point is that he’d have a much better chance if his campaign messaging hadn’t been so confounding. He might squeak through with something like 275 electoral votes, as it is. But a president who oversaw a gangbusters economy, who has some real foreign-policy victories to boast of, and who could have parlayed the burst in public support for political leaders during the early days of the pandemic into more durable popularity if he had approached the crisis more shrewdly shouldn’t be struggling to get to 270. He should be the favorite, comfortably. Frank Luntz:
“I’ve never seen a campaign more mis-calibrated than the Trump campaign. Frankly, his staff ought to be brought up on charges of political malpractice,” Luntz said.
“It is the worst campaign I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching them since 1980. They’re on the wrong issues. They’re on the wrong message. They’ve got their heads up their assess. … Your damn job is to get your candidate to talk about things that are relevant to the people you need to reach. And if you can’t do your damn job then get out.”…
“Nobody cares about Hunter Biden … why is [Trump] spending all his time on him?” Luntz asked. “Hunter Biden does not help put food on the table. Hunter Biden does not help anyone get a job. Hunter Biden does not provide health care or solve COVID. And Donald Trump spends all of his time focused on that and nobody cares.”
Luntz is being kind to the president in blaming his staff for his poor messaging, as if Bill Stepien has any control over what Trump’s going to be talking about from moment to moment.
models say Dems need a ~650K lead on election day to hold off the Republican in person voting charge.
In Florida? Not a poll watcher, what’s this shit about?
Dems dominate mail in voting
Republicans dominate in person (especially election day) voting
Democrat voters mailed 486,797 more ballots than Republicans so far.
Early in person voting has returned 483,443 Republicans, 392,530 democrats, & 171,960 NPAs voted in-person. so far.
Republican EV (early in person voting) up ~90,0000 more than democrats so far. How are NPA (non party affiliation) breaking? Republican in person voting will continue to chip away for the next 2 weeks.
You can model based on general voter trends and how much of the electorate has not yet voted to get a decent guestimate on how many mail in votes Democrats need to be ahead on election day to hold the line against the election day republican surge.
The new registration numbers in PA for R's looks good but Trump has to win PA by enough that they cant stuff the boxes in philly (around 70,000 extra votes)
Seriously, talked to a good friend who is also very political today and we both said we were cautiously optimistic Trump would win.
I can't help but feel that he's peaking in November like a good Pete Carroll team while Biden is flailing like a browns team that started off 2-0 only to end 5-11.
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
Can I change my vote?
edit: Actually rereleasing this next week so we can get the "near election" snapshot. Trump killed it last night. I think this thing is moving Trumps direction.
That's pretty much where I'm at. Really thought Biden had it in the bag until the last week, but i feel like lots of stuff is moving Trump's direction. All that said, mail in ballots, ballot harvesting, etc. make this one almost impossible to call. Too many variables I do not completely understand.
Comments
But don’t sleep on the possibility of Brad Parscale becoming a top villain for how he mismanaged the campaign’s gigantic war chest before being demoted. Combined with the RNC, Team Trump raised $1.5 billion — billion — since the start of 2019, and at the start of October all they had to show for it was an eight-point deficit and a little more than $60 million in the bank.
But if the polls are right and he loses, especially if he loses big, the view that he ran an historically bad campaign will be commonly held across all demographics, including the GOP. Even populist righties, the audience he’s forever pandering to, will find it convenient to believe that Trump lost because he chose the wrong strategy (to the extent that they’re not all-in on the idea that Biden cheated). That’s because populists will be scrambling to explain away his defeat in terms of anything *except* that populism might be unpopular. “Biden cheated!” Or “the media defeated Trump!” Or “he sent too many tweets!” Or, yes, even “he ran a garbage campaign! A smarter populist will win next time.”
And you know what? A smarter populist might.
The point isn’t that Trump has no chance to win because he’s run a bad campaign. He does have a chance. The point is that he’d have a much better chance if his campaign messaging hadn’t been so confounding. He might squeak through with something like 275 electoral votes, as it is. But a president who oversaw a gangbusters economy, who has some real foreign-policy victories to boast of, and who could have parlayed the burst in public support for political leaders during the early days of the pandemic into more durable popularity if he had approached the crisis more shrewdly shouldn’t be struggling to get to 270. He should be the favorite, comfortably. Frank Luntz:
“It is the worst campaign I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching them since 1980. They’re on the wrong issues. They’re on the wrong message. They’ve got their heads up their assess. … Your damn job is to get your candidate to talk about things that are relevant to the people you need to reach. And if you can’t do your damn job then get out.”…
“Nobody cares about Hunter Biden … why is [Trump] spending all his time on him?” Luntz asked. “Hunter Biden does not help put food on the table. Hunter Biden does not help anyone get a job. Hunter Biden does not provide health care or solve COVID. And Donald Trump spends all of his time focused on that and nobody cares.”
Luntz is being kind to the president in blaming his staff for his poor messaging, as if Bill Stepien has any control over what Trump’s going to be talking about from moment to moment.
models say Dems need a ~650K lead on election day to hold off the Republican in person voting charge.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/minnesota-senate-race-dramatically-narrows-lewis-smith
The tightening of the polls
Minnesota in play thanks to the idea of antifa
Republicans dominate in person (especially election day) voting
Democrat voters mailed 486,797 more ballots than Republicans so far.
Early in person voting has returned 483,443 Republicans, 392,530 democrats, & 171,960 NPAs voted in-person. so far.
Republican EV (early in person voting) up ~90,0000 more than democrats so far. How are NPA (non party affiliation) breaking? Republican in person voting will continue to chip away for the next 2 weeks.
You can model based on general voter trends and how much of the electorate has not yet voted to get a decent guestimate on how many mail in votes Democrats need to be ahead on election day to hold the line against the election day republican surge.
If Trump wins any 3 of the 5 than he wins it all. If he wins only AZ and WI (2 lowest value) they very likely get the 269 -269 tie.
WI poling is TIGHT with 5% to Jorgenson (secret trump voters?)
AZ Hispanics and first generation in AZ are breaking hard to Trump
MN state democrats aren't tarnished by the national dems, Trump probably not going to win here
MI who the hell knows
The new registration numbers in PA for R's looks good but Trump has to win PA by enough that they cant stuff the boxes in philly (around 70,000 extra votes)
This pole nerd is by far the best smaller guy, raises money on streams to run his own shit... https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit
Decent poont by Scott Adams here...
I can't help but feel that he's peaking in November like a good Pete Carroll team while Biden is flailing like a browns team that started off 2-0 only to end 5-11.
edit: Actually rereleasing this next week so we can get the "near election" snapshot. Trump killed it last night. I think this thing is moving Trumps direction.