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Tequilla's Thoughts - Final Four Oppression
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,815
As I said last night, not hard to see this coming. Ohio gave the Committee an easy out on the TCU vs. Baylor debate.
My eyes are better than those on the Committee and TCU is one of the Top 4 teams in the Country ... but whatever on that.
Alabama and Oregon belong. Florida State didn't lost and played 3 legit P5 teams in the non-conference plus the 8 games in their conference plus a title game. They belong. You have 3 teams going for 1 spot in Ohio, Baylor, and TCU.
I've rehashed most of this already so no reason to go into a TL, DR explanation. Ohio has the worst loss of the 3 and the only one of the 3 to lose at home. The Big 12 was a better conference than the Big 10 (although both are behind the SEC, PAC, and ACC). Anybody that needs help understanding that should look at a winless Big 12 team in Iowa State winning on the road at Iowa. TCU vs. Baylor is a little more tricky because of the H2H aspect. TCU IMO was the better team throughout the course of the year but they weren't for 10 minutes of game play and it cost them. The lesson as always is win all of your games and take the decision out of the hands of others.
A couple of things that I really think that are quite amusing to me:
1) TCU was ranked either 3rd or 4th last week based on their body of work. For them to fall 2 or 3 spots after beating a conference opponent by over 50 points is downright laughable. If you think that they are the 6th best team in the nation that's fine and if you can support that opinion then so be it. But if they were the 3rd or 4th best team last week, there hasn't been that much change over the last week to support that change IMO.
2) There was an argument used that stated that the 13th game for Ohio was a massive differentiator between them and the 2 Big 12 teams. The 13th game for Ohio gave them 9 games against their conference (8 regular season + 1 in the conference title game). The Big 12 teams play 9 conference games. Both Ohio and TCU played P5 teams in the OOC schedule. So basically what they are saying is that Ohio's games against either Cincy or Navy are the games that made the difference.
A couple of random thoughts in my head:
1) TCU has a lot to reconsider regarding their annual rivalry game with SMU as long as SMU is a joke. Today's results make it crystal clear that TCU will have to take any doubt away with their resume whether that be with the SMU game or the D2 game that just about everybody is playing today.
2) Much like how the PAC is perceived to be down when USC isn't at the top, same is true in the Big 12 when Texas and Oklahoma are down.
3) Does the voting go the same way if one of TCU or Baylor was replaced by Oklahoma or Texas?
4) Would TCU or Baylor have been better off and in the Top 4 if they were a clear cut conference champion instead of co-champions?
5) I expect that the Big 12 will be expanding by 2 teams and/or petitioning for a Conference Championship game between its top 2 teams
In the end, it's on TCU for blowing a 21 point lead with 10 minutes to go. Nobody to really blame but themselves for it. That being said, it's a very bitter pill to swallow that when your body of work has your only loss was on the road to a Top 5 team by a FG on the last play of the game and that that was the only time in that game that you trailed.
My eyes are better than those on the Committee and TCU is one of the Top 4 teams in the Country ... but whatever on that.
Alabama and Oregon belong. Florida State didn't lost and played 3 legit P5 teams in the non-conference plus the 8 games in their conference plus a title game. They belong. You have 3 teams going for 1 spot in Ohio, Baylor, and TCU.
I've rehashed most of this already so no reason to go into a TL, DR explanation. Ohio has the worst loss of the 3 and the only one of the 3 to lose at home. The Big 12 was a better conference than the Big 10 (although both are behind the SEC, PAC, and ACC). Anybody that needs help understanding that should look at a winless Big 12 team in Iowa State winning on the road at Iowa. TCU vs. Baylor is a little more tricky because of the H2H aspect. TCU IMO was the better team throughout the course of the year but they weren't for 10 minutes of game play and it cost them. The lesson as always is win all of your games and take the decision out of the hands of others.
A couple of things that I really think that are quite amusing to me:
1) TCU was ranked either 3rd or 4th last week based on their body of work. For them to fall 2 or 3 spots after beating a conference opponent by over 50 points is downright laughable. If you think that they are the 6th best team in the nation that's fine and if you can support that opinion then so be it. But if they were the 3rd or 4th best team last week, there hasn't been that much change over the last week to support that change IMO.
2) There was an argument used that stated that the 13th game for Ohio was a massive differentiator between them and the 2 Big 12 teams. The 13th game for Ohio gave them 9 games against their conference (8 regular season + 1 in the conference title game). The Big 12 teams play 9 conference games. Both Ohio and TCU played P5 teams in the OOC schedule. So basically what they are saying is that Ohio's games against either Cincy or Navy are the games that made the difference.
A couple of random thoughts in my head:
1) TCU has a lot to reconsider regarding their annual rivalry game with SMU as long as SMU is a joke. Today's results make it crystal clear that TCU will have to take any doubt away with their resume whether that be with the SMU game or the D2 game that just about everybody is playing today.
2) Much like how the PAC is perceived to be down when USC isn't at the top, same is true in the Big 12 when Texas and Oklahoma are down.
3) Does the voting go the same way if one of TCU or Baylor was replaced by Oklahoma or Texas?
4) Would TCU or Baylor have been better off and in the Top 4 if they were a clear cut conference champion instead of co-champions?
5) I expect that the Big 12 will be expanding by 2 teams and/or petitioning for a Conference Championship game between its top 2 teams
In the end, it's on TCU for blowing a 21 point lead with 10 minutes to go. Nobody to really blame but themselves for it. That being said, it's a very bitter pill to swallow that when your body of work has your only loss was on the road to a Top 5 team by a FG on the last play of the game and that that was the only time in that game that you trailed.
Comments
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
End of discussion
A bit surprised by the inclusion of Ohio State, and I think their brand did have something to do with it.
Agree.
I hope that TCU never abandons the SMU game. SMU sucks now, but they have cash and there is some willingness among the alumni to support a winner there. Part of what killed TCU and Baylor is the fan support map I keep linking on the bored. If TCU/SMU can generate some local interest as a real rivalry, I think you will see TCU expand its fan support, which will help it in the long run.
Big problem for the XII is that there aren't good regional candidates out there for teams 11 and 12. Cincy? Tulane? Memphis? Colorado State? Arkansas or LSU would be great natural fits but neither will ever leave the SEC so long as the TV contracts remain as they are.
The Big XII already has about one more private school than it needs.
FSU I would have no trouble leaving out as well. Spare me the defending champs and winning streak. Irrelevant. Played a large number of average to above average teams. Played all of them close and needed a ton of luck to continue winning. The only "good" team they played was Georgia Tech. I think they lose 2 games if they played in SEC/B12/P12.
OSU... losing to Va Tech. LOL. Needing OT against terrible Penn State. Did have a decent non-con win over Cincy which won the new Big East. OSU vs. FSU is close, I guess I would go with the unbeaten who also played 3 decent non-con teams (Ok St, Fla, ND), but OSU sure looked better on Saturday night than FSU.
Fuck Baylor. You put up a statue of RG3 and play 3 shit teams non-con, you fucking suck and deserve no sympathy.
TCU has a case but the whole debate is annoying and tedious. IDGAF. Also people need to stop asking the Big 12 to play a championship. They all play each other. There's no point. STFU Brian Greasehead.
Building your program and brand takes time - Oregon should know that. It's doubly difficult in a state with such allegiances already in place with Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and all the transplants that live in Dallas in general.
That being said, the growth in the TCU program from a following and awareness base is improving. The remodeled stadium is extremely nice and the facilities as a whole are there. I'm amazed that there are TCU watching parties in places like Seattle and Portland ... I honestly never thought I'd see stuff like that. When I first got to TCU, the MBA tailgate was right outside the entrance to the stadium and we used to walk in/out to get beer from the keg at the tailgate. The stadium was about 1/3 full and the student section about the same. Today, the stadium is almost entirely full each week and the student section is probably one of the better ones in the country.
You're right about the size of the school and the alumni base. I love it because I'm sure I'll be getting an email in the next 12-24 hours offering me tickets to the Peach Bowl game against Ole Miss. I'm debating whether or not to make the trip and then heading from Atlanta to Phoenix for the Cactus Bowl. But your point is fair in that the numbers just don't add up for a school like TCU versus an entire state like Ohio.
If Ohio st was Iowa this never would have happened. But they're not and a good Ohio state team does not get left out. If tcu were Texas or Oklahoma there is not a chance in hell they would have been overpasses. Same for Baylor.
All that being said you could make a case for each team and each team can blame themselves.
To me, anybody that brings up TCU's decision to play SMU as a sign of them taking the easy way out isn't paying attention. TCU's played them annually for as long as you can go back and look (when SMU fielded a team that is).
That being said, if TCU is going to get penalized for playing too easy of a schedule (they played 10 P5 teams), then the SMU game is one of the two games that they need to revisit.
Oklahoma losing helped, too. Both TCU and Baylor's overall resume was hurt with OU dropping out of the top 25.