Why We Are Average and the Importance of Attrition
Comments
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What's concerning is that we haven't won in Tucson since 2006 (Willingham vs. Mike Stoops), Willingham dropped 2008 and then Sarkisian got blown out of the water in 2010 and 2012.greenblood said:
I think you are winning 3 of those 4 "toss-up" games. The single loss coming to ASU. You'll go 6-3 in Conference 10-3 overall. A bowl win would put you at 11 wins. I think that is entirely possible, especially since you get to skip USC and Utah this year, which is a big help.
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That's another good point about talent. The same goes for UW. Peters, Kikaha, and Shelton were all 3 star recruits. USC and UCLA are the most talented teams in the conference based off stars. Florida and Michigan would be top 10 teams. On the field, there is nothing elite about those teams. What you do with the talent, and recruiting to your system is more important than the stars Scout and Rivals hand out.greenblood said:
Agreed, but Oregon also has a lot of talent that only had 3 stars during recruitment. This includes guys like Mariota, Kiko Alonso, Jake Fisher, Grasu, Joe Walker (2 stars), Terrence Mitchell, Boyett, Barner, Patterson, Brian Jackson, Mahle, Paulson, and Matthews. Oregon has done a nice job of getting guys that fit their system, vs how pretty their star quantity looks.RoadDawg55 said:Good stuff. The attrition and lack of redshirts has hurt the program. Sample, Ducre, Kevin Smith, Pio V, etc. Those guys would really help. That is one thing that excites me about Petersen. I don't think Sark cared about the bottom half of his recruiting classes. Petersen does and he really delves into their character, which hopefully leads to less attrition.
I do disagree with some of the article. This team has talent, but it is lacking it at the most important spot, QB. The RB's are pretty bad too. Talent was only one of the reasons we got plungered by Oregon. As I have stated many times, less talented teams than UW's played tough against Oregon. Arizona even beat them. Jake Fisher returning obviously has been a major boon. However, he was not a 25 point difference.
Nobody expected a great team, just a good one that wins 10 games. Let's not move the goalposts now. The fact that we have flaws and youth/talent deficiencies in places shouldn't be news. It was known all along. 10 wins is still feasible and I think there is enough talent to do that. It won't be easy, but if we don't, I certainly won't blame it all on a lack of talent.
5 stars is a good start. If you asked Greenblood or another logical Duck fan, I doubt they would name more than 5 guys who are stars. I suppose who those star players are also matters. I would trade 3 of our stars for Mariota. I don't blame it all on Petersen, but change can be tough. Some guys have taken to it and gotten better. Danny Shelton, Shaq, and John Ross are examples. Others guys have not. Timu and Feeney haven't gotten any better, and are possibly worse. The OL looks no better than it did last year. Up to this point, I can't say we are over achieving with the talent we have, and we are possibly under achieving. There is still a lot of season left though. -
Jesus Cristo. Peters/Thompson/Timu/Shelton/Kikaha are all going to be NFL players. Thompson, Peters, Shelton, and Kikaha are all first or second round draft picks. Shelton alone should make the UW defense dominant, since he's a Nick Fairley clone, but with a better burst. Maybe not Timu in the NFL as a draft pick, but he'll be a priority UFA for some NFL team, and I can see him at least making a practice squad.CokeGreaterThanPepsi said:I still think this team can win 9 or 10 games if all goes right. But I also don't think there is much talent on this team.
Oregon has maybe 3 defensive players who are NFL locks.
Armstead, Ifo, Buckner (maybe) are Thursday/Friday NFL picks. Dargan may be a late-round draft pick. The Oregon LBs are dreck, but Tony Washington Jr. might sneak into the 6th or 7th round.
I can't figure out why this UW defense isn't dominant. So much NFL talent, it's ridiculous. The DC should be able to coach these guys up a bit to hide the freshmen who for some reason are starting for UW. -
It's a Cuog thing...CokeGreaterThanPepsi said:WSU's numbers are INSANE.
2010: Signed 26, 12 gone already.
2011: Signed 29, 18 gone already.
2012: Signed 27, 13 gone already.
2013: Signed 28, 7 gone already.
Holy Shit, Cuogs -
This may have already been mentioned in the TFL;DFR poasts, but it seems pretty clear that the "edgy" guys Sarkasm went after equate to a high attrition rate. OKFGS equate to a low attrition rate.
Pepsi, would you also include BSU's OKFG attrition rate over the same time period when you do the rest of the P12 for comparison? TIA
I can't wait for more OKFGs. -
YBE, coke. Interesting data points.
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This actually brings up an interesting poont since ML's roots are in the south. Everyone always wonders how the SEC SEC SEC takes 30+ per class. If they are anticipating that level of attrition per class, then the aggregate number of players left over puts them right were they need to be in the end.CokeGreaterThanPepsi said:WSU's numbers are INSANE.
2010: Signed 26, 12 gone already.
2011: Signed 29, 18 gone already.
2012: Signed 27, 13 gone already.
2013: Signed 28, 7 gone already.
Holy Shit, Cuogs -
@greenblood Petersen will definitely recruit to his system. I'm anxious to see what the attrition #s are for Boise. I bet they are very low. I think Petersen will have very balanced classes where a good portion of the bottom half guys contribute. With Sark & Ty it was very few. That shit will really add up in 2,3,4 years but not right away.
It only took Saban, Carroll, Stoops, Meyer, Kelly are really killed it in their second year. Mark Dantonio won 7,9,6 before going 48-13 since which is 41-6 other than one 7-6 year. His breakthrough was in year 4. Perhaps we win 9/10 this season then drop to 7 next year before winning double digits for several years after that. Brian Kelly's breakthrough was in year 3.
If we are talking about average we need to specify W/L or metrics. If there are 70 schools from power conferences then you are average at best if you are not in the top 35-40. We could go 9-4 in reg season win a bowl and still be average from that standpoint. SOS will help push our metrics higher as the year goes on. Our conference schedule this year is easy and that helps our W potential. At this point I'd be really happy with 10-4. -
We will do Boise tomorrow and post the results. I'm actually interested to see if they had more attrition since their last 2 teams haven't been so good. Should be interesting, or not.
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I awesome'd this post in lieu of the original so "Hardcore_Husky" doesn't steal your rating. I am interested in what this post has to offer but I don't actually think it is awesome.CokeGreaterThanPepsi said:We will do Boise tomorrow and post the results. I'm actually interested to see if they had more attrition since their last 2 teams haven't been so good. Should be interesting, or not.
