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Why We Are Average and the Importance of Attrition
Hardcore_Husky
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 302 
Why We Are Average and the Importance of Attrition
CokeGreaterThanPepsi analyzes attrition rates this week and makes a startling conclusion... Things were worse under Sark than we realized.
Comments
I don't count that last minute crap Sark pulled as "recruiting" when it was clear he whiffed on big names and needed warm bodies.
The numbers on Oregon are interesting. Either their picker is wrong or they have a quick trigger finger. Or abundance?
pics?
1) I'd recommend changing "no" in the charts to something that more clearly resembles that the player left the program before completing eligibility.
2) It would be interesting to see the results for the entire conference, but I think in particular it will be interesting to see the impact against Oregon (already completed), Stanford, and Oregon State. Oregon and Stanford obviously because they are the top programs in the conference. Oregon State because while they at times lack in talent, they are almost always experienced, well coached squads that require you to beat them instead of beating themselves.
3) I'm a little torn on how to treat JUCO players in the list
4) I'd also like to see listings that compare how many true freshman are playing immediately
5) I'd also recommend breaking out those that leave the program early because they enter the NFL draft (which means that you got at least 3 years in the program with clear contributions to the roster) versus players that left on their own (which generally means that they didn't provide contributions to the program) ... there's a HUGE difference in these kinds of metrics. I'd argue that the latter is much more closely aligned with the "exhaustion of eligibility" measure. In the end, what you're trying to analyze is the % of players that were just flat out recruiting misses that provided limited, if any, contributions to a program.
Recruiting players for your system >>>> Recruiting players because of their stars
Case closed
I do disagree with some of the article. This team has talent, but it is lacking it at the most important spot, QB. The RB's are pretty bad too. Talent was only one of the reasons we got plungered by Oregon. As I have stated many times, less talented teams than UW's played tough against Oregon. Arizona even beat them. Jake Fisher returning obviously has been a major boon. However, he was not a 25 point difference.
Nobody expected a great team, just a good one that wins 10 games. Let's not move the goalposts now. The fact that we have flaws and youth/talent deficiencies in places shouldn't be news. It was known all along. 10 wins is still feasible and I think there is enough talent to do that. It won't be easy, but if we don't, I certainly won't blame it all on a lack of talent.
5 stars is a good start. If you asked Greenblood or another logical Duck fan, I doubt they would name more than 5 guys who are stars. I suppose who those star players are also matters. I would trade 3 of our stars for Mariota. I don't blame it all on Petersen, but change can be tough. Some guys have taken to it and gotten better. Danny Shelton, Shaq, and John Ross are examples. Others guys have not. Timu and Feeney haven't gotten any better, and are possibly worse. The OL looks no better than it did last year. Up to this point, I can't say we are over achieving with the talent we have, and we are possibly under achieving. There is still a lot of season left though.
Off the top of my head, Sloppy Steve's attrition rates and poor recruiting along the OL is the most glaring. Porter was good but had to retire due to shoulder problems but Kohler was overrated and then retired. The 2011 class only had Dexter Charles and Siosifa Tugunga (MAY start next year as a RS-SR). The 2012 class has already lost Nathan Dean and Taylor Hindy and Sarkisian mismanaged Brostek by playing him as a true frosh. The 2013 class hasn't had any attrition which is important to building better depth but Jamie Bryant has already had to retire (either was going to be an OL or DT).
After coming in late for the 2014 class, at least Petersen and Strausser held onto Matt James, flipped Sosebee from BSU, got another OL in John Turner, and then took a grayshirt flier on a former B-ball player Burleson after SDSU convinced him to switch to football).
I'm happy with our 2015 OL class. One 4 star All-American wanted by a bunch of programs (Henry Roberts), another 4 star (or high 3 star) offered by USC, Oregon, ASU, and UCLA in Trey Adams, and one 3 star OT with a couple of other Pac-12 offers (Jared Hilbers).
The previous staff also mismanaged the secondary. They played 2011 recruit James Sample as a true frosh and he hurt his shoulder (like Kevin King) and then he went to the JC route before landing at Louisville (6-2 this year) and is currently their second leading tackler. The 2012 class had 2 misses Darien Washington (don't know where he is) and Cleveland Wallace (San Jose State) and Petersen had to kick 2013 recruit Patrick Enewally off the team in the spring.
I also wish the previous staff had recruited a speed back in 2012 or 2013. 2 star Erich Wilson didn't pan out in the 2012 class and while I like Coleman from the 2013 class, he doesn't have breakaway speed. At least Petersen nabbed speedy Jomon Dotson but he entered the program at 164 lbs so he obviously needs to redshirt.
The OL and QB play so far makes it hard to see a 5-1 in-conference finish. Hope I'm wrong though.
We have 4 toss up games remaining with ASU, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon State - 3 of which are at home.
We may be looking at another 5-4 season in conference ...
There's enough talent on this roster that if we got reasonable QB play I think we could be expecting to see 6-3 or 7-2 in conference this year. Probably don't lose to Stanford if we had it.
If there has been a massive disappointment to me this year, and an area where I tremendously missed, it was thinking that we'd get more out of Miles than we are. He's just not an upper end PAC QB in my mind.
Until we are able to get QB play that I consider to be PAC quality, there's really not a single game that I look at on the schedule and feel tremendously comfortable about at this point.
2010: Signed 26, 12 gone already.
2011: Signed 29, 18 gone already.
2012: Signed 27, 13 gone already.
2013: Signed 28, 7 gone already.
Holy Shit, Cuogs