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Finally viewed the UCLA-Oregon replay.

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  • HeretoBeatmyChest
    HeretoBeatmyChest Member Posts: 4,295
    This is a game that could have a wide range of outcomes mostly due to Mariotta against the UW front 7. Maybe UO's OL is good enough to allow him to win the matchup. However, maybe it isn't much better than it was against Arizona and UW's front 7 is a lot better than Arizona's. Maybe the OL is back to full strength giving UO clear advantage. You just don't know. Anyway, it will be interesting.
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  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,232
    In all seriousness, I see +21 as Vegas being ridiculous.

    Football is a 3 phase game with coaching also needing to be considered in the equation.

    Offense: Clearly Oregon has an advantage here. Turnovers will be a big issue in this game as neither team has thrown an INT so far this year. We're +14 in turnover margin while Oregon is +9. IMO, this is going to be a key element in this game as our defense needs to find ways to create a few turnovers. UW needs to be able to churn out one of their best efforts on the ground in this game and it wouldn't hurt to get a few touches for Shaq in this game. Miles will need to be able to make 2-3 key throws in the passing game.

    Defense: We are giving up 21 a game compared to 24 per game for Oregon. We're now giving up under 400 yards per game and are giving up close to 80 yards fewer per game than Oregon. Our ability to create turnovers is also better. This is a phase of the game that the UW MUST win if it is going to beat Oregon.

    Special Teams: We appear to have a decided edge in the kicking game. Van Winkle is a legitimate threat to make a FG whereas Oregon's only attempted 4 FGs this year (and none from 40 or beyond). The punting game appears to be relatively even although Durkee's performance against Stanford would lead one to believe that his ability to perform in a big game could be an advantage for us. Once an area where Oregon exploited opponents, their special teams have so far been pedestrian by their standards leading me to believe that we may have an edge in the return game.

    Coaching: Petersen >>> Helfrich. No comments needed here.

    So when you break it down, this is really a strength on strength and weakness on weakness game. It will be absolutely critical for our front 7 to be able to control the LOS against Oregon. With Shelton's ability to dominate the middle, I like our ability to at least be able to force Oregon to have to slowly move the ball down the field if they focus on the up the middle runs (and patience isn't their strength). Our ability to then focus some of our LB play to maintain the edges as well as to penetrate up the field will disrupt Oregon's east/west running game. One area of concern that I do have is that if our front is able to get enough pressure on Mariota such that he steps up in the pocket and kills us on scramble runs ... so rush integrity will be important. IF we're able to make Oregon fairly one dimensional in the passing game, that's historically been a sign of being able to beat them. Offensively, we need to be able to sustain drives and ensure that we're consistently winning the field position battle. It's imperative that if we don't score on drives, we force Oregon to go long fields to score TDs. If we can get to +2 in the turnover game, then I'm really liking our chances.

    In the end, I don't see Oregon scoring in the 40s on us this year with our ability to get up the field on just about everybody we've played combined with Oregon's problems on the OL. I'd be surprised if they got in the 30s unless we help them with turnovers or special teams play. I do think that Oregon's defense has shown consistent struggles this year against the run without sacrificing the pass. We're hitting the part of the season where I think we can expect Miles to put together a game where you start scratching your head wondering where that came from in the good way (see the Swoopes kid from Texas last week against Oklahoma). A defensive and/or special teams score would be absolutely huge for us.

    Finally, there's a certain arrogance that I see from Oregon wearing the 1994 uniforms against us. It's a bit of a rubbing our noses in the past as well as going to the Lane Kiffin school of shit talking with the whole Duckade of Dominance. We know that the streak is going to end at some point. We know that the UW for the first time in the last 11 years has the best HC on the sideline. And quite possibly for the first time in that time period we have the better defense. I'm not sure we win this game or not. But I'd be absolutely shocked if we got to the 4th quarter this year and we weren't in position to win the game. The more I see of the conference, the more I'm convinced that the best unit in the conference is Stanford's defense. I think the UW defense is in the Top 3-5 units in the conference. I also think that Stanford's still probably the best team in the conference. We should have no fear going into this game.
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  • Southerndawg
    Southerndawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,354 Founders Club
    HeretoBeatmyChest said:

    This is a game that could have a wide range of outcomes mostly due to Mariotta against the UW front 7. Maybe UO's OL is good enough to allow him to win the matchup. However, maybe it isn't much better than it was against Arizona and UW's front 7 is a lot better than Arizona's. Maybe the OL is back to full strength giving UO clear advantage. You just don't know. Anyway, it will be interesting.

    This is the key to the game. If UW's defense plays like it did against Cal, Oregon is in real trouble, in fact I think the Huskies win this game if they do. That said, I'm still in LIPO mode with UW, haven't seen near enough in terms of complete play from them to go full doog yet, but they are clearly improving as the season goes on. Win or lose, we'll know better where the Huskies are in their development after this game.
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  • MisterEm
    MisterEm Member Posts: 6,685
    edited October 2014
    oregonblitzkrieg said:

    PostGameOrangeSlices said:

    I like the doogs in this one.

    Seriously, I do. I'm drinking the kool-aid.

    Our d-line is only giving up 3.1 yards per rushing attempt, and I think our secondary is VASTLY improved since the start of the year.

    If we score over 28, we will win this game. I don't think Oregon scores more than that.

    Do you have red S's on your helmets? No. You couldn't hold EWU to under 50 points and you think you'll hold Oregon to under 30? That's some potent kool aid you're drinking.
    PGOS- OBK is right you know. No way they hold em to 28... aint happening.
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