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The narrative that Lanning cost Oregon the game is wrong. UW was just better.

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  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,751
    FireCohen said:

    We won caz penix is not a lil bitch QB that we are accustomed to having. Grubb did some questionable play calling, but got bailed out by the talent. We should thank Junior Adam for getting them here

    FOH
  • CuntWaffleCuntWaffle Member Posts: 22,499
    I actually didn’t have a problem with any of Lannings decisions. Even the one before half, which is probably the most debatable one, was an attempt to deflate the entire stadium. Didn’t work but you are still only down 4 with the ball back.

    The play calling on the other hand was beyond fucktarded. I think 2 of the 3 were roll out passes, which hardly ever work in those situations.
  • Fenderbender123Fenderbender123 Member Posts: 2,983
    Bob_C said:

    whlinder said:

    I unequivocally believe Lanning made the right decision on the last 4th down. This is how I break it down:

    Go for it:
    50% chance of success = win the game
    50% chance of failure, subsequent outcomes are
    --20% stop UW, win the game
    --40% give up TD to UW with not enough time left on clock, lose the game
    --40% give up TD to UW but with time left on clock to win/tie
    ----10% score winning TD
    ----60% do not score, lose the game
    ----30% make tying FG, go to OT where it's 50/50

    That all adds up to (for Oregon)
    65% win
    35% loss

    Punting:
    30% chance to stop UW, win the game
    70% chance UW scores TD
    --95% chance not enough time left on clock, lose the game
    --5% chance time on clock and make FG to tie, 50/50


    That comes out to (with rounding)
    32% win
    68% lose

    Basically have to believe Oregon had a better than 60% chance to stop UW, with all 4 downs available, or that their chance of moving the ball 3 yards were less than 40%, to think punting was a better decision.

    In agreement on the basic principles there. This is the NFL 4th down stats from the last ten years. Have to figure that many of these are in the red zone, a 4th and 3 from inside the ten is harder than one at midfield theoretically. So that combined with it being college makes Oregon's 4th and 3 had probably 50/50 chance, or maybe even better as you said.


    If I'm Lanning, I'm thinking that my odds are even better than that, because Oregon's offense had been moving the ball better than your average NFL team, statistically speaking.

    Oregon's yards per play against UW was over 7. The NFL average is between 5 and 6.

  • EwaDawgEwaDawg Member Posts: 4,214

    I haven't seen one single fan apologize for the win.

    Pretty sure it was a figure of speech.

    But many folks have said we only won because Lanning fucked up.

    Including some posters here.

    It's a loser narrative.
    Lanning made stupid decisions based upon data on UW' defense that rarely played into the 4th quarter. Those decisions allowed us to hold 0regon to 33 points. It is a different game if he kicks the field goals (or punts).

    He now has much better data on UW's defense.

    It is still appropriate to thank Lanning for making bad decisions on bad data.
  • EsophagealFecesEsophagealFeces Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,096 Swaye's Wigwam
    Watching @DerekJohnson and @RaceBannon disagree in this thread is triggering. Feels like watching my two dads argue before they got divorced.
  • FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823

    Watching @DerekJohnson and @RaceBannon disagree in this thread is triggering. Feels like watching my two dads argue before they got divorced.

    Or have hot butt sex….either way you lose
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,273
    edited October 2023

    I think it's accurate and a gripe that making everything about Lanning making bad calls there and not getting it is distracting from:

    1. The Husky defense doing a great job in tough 3rd and 4th down situations. It's really fucking hard to get modern offenses off the field with losses of down.
    2. The Husky offense and team as a whole making winners win plays

    I remember damn well in 2019 and possibly 2018 Mario going for it in tough 4th downs and it really swinging the game by getting it

    To me the Huskies having a scheme but also kind of having it be backyard our best players will beat your players instead of Oregon's kind of Petersen like dink and dunk ground control ball control shit which doesn't work in tight moments and when you just plain need to score. The Franklin TD and long pass down the field were set up by shit they had to run for 3 quarters.

    I'm kind of tired about the bitching about the Nix sprint out passes. What? You thought he was going to drop back and get the conversions that way? They also tried to run on that third and short where Lanning got the timeout or shit in but the play ran and got fucking blown out. Their short yardage run game was slipping as the game went on. They were also struggling to pass pro.

    Again, I don't understand the bitching about other people bitching about their own coach and, increasingly, about their QB and play calling. No offense, but there is a lot of rationalizing that goes on around here after a loss, and very rarely does that narrative borrow on the idea that Washington simply lost to their superiors. Not in a tight game that. We? read reams of material here poking at the other team in an attempt to downplay who they are after a loss. You could teach a graduate course in it (no offense). But from this game I've seen little of that from them. If anything, everyone is still stroking Penix.

    Last things on this from me on this. Of course the punt decision is debatable, but it's not like they didn't have stops in the second half; and giving W the ball at mid-field after a big 4th down stop is a mo swinger and a different task than potentially getting pinned deep. Sure, I like Penix's chances; but I like them a lot better the way it played out. Good coaches punt there IMO. Lastly, the sprint out pass play was not great play calling for the reasons given, and because it had already not worked at all on multiple previous attempts. Old Oregon would design a play like that going one way and then get it to someone on the other side of the field in space. Two or three times it was just forced into an auditorium of people. Bad call. They may or may not have made it on another play call, but that one was destined to fail. They may need to look elsewhere for a coordinator, because I for one was more impressed with Nix last year than I am this year.
  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 63,591 Founders Club

    I think it's accurate and a gripe that making everything about Lanning making bad calls there and not getting it is distracting from:

    1. The Husky defense doing a great job in tough 3rd and 4th down situations. It's really fucking hard to get modern offenses off the field with losses of down.
    2. The Husky offense and team as a whole making winners win plays

    I remember damn well in 2019 and possibly 2018 Mario going for it in tough 4th downs and it really swinging the game by getting it

    To me the Huskies having a scheme but also kind of having it be backyard our best players will beat your players instead of Oregon's kind of Petersen like dink and dunk ground control ball control shit which doesn't work in tight moments and when you just plain need to score. The Franklin TD and long pass down the field were set up by shit they had to run for 3 quarters.

    I'm kind of tired about the bitching about the Nix sprint out passes. What? You thought he was going to drop back and get the conversions that way? They also tried to run on that third and short where Lanning got the timeout or shit in but the play ran and got fucking blown out. Their short yardage run game was slipping as the game went on. They were also struggling to pass pro.

    Some of you might want to shield your eyes as I'm about to posit a hypothetical...

    But if Oregon runs a draw play on that final fourth down they probably gain 7-15 yards.
  • WoolleyDoogWoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 3,618 Swaye's Wigwam
    Hyperthetical. After getting stuffed on third down in the fourth would Petersen have kicked the field goal to cut it to one?
  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 63,591 Founders Club

    Hyperthetical. After getting stuffed on third down in the fourth would Petersen have kicked the field goal to cut it to one?

    I think Don James would have but Pete would have gone for it. If you're talking about down on the goal line.
  • backthepackbackthepack Member Posts: 19,861
    DHD said:

    Thank you.

    I can't believe how many UW fans have spent the last 3 days apologizing for the win, as if the UW took something that didn't belong to them.

    Lanning is an idiot, but he's an idiot for making stupid decisions against a team that was BETTER than his team. You can get away with that stupid shit against Portland State, but those morons needed every point they could get against UW because the UW is better than them.

    And even with Lanning's stupidity, his players still had a chance to execute, and they failed, repeatedly ... because the UW is better than them.

    Do you remember when our #2 receiver got hurt and walked off the field and didn't play for the rest of the game? Or how about when our #4 receiver got hurt and didn't play for the rest of the game? Or seeing our best D-lineman play 1/2 the snaps he normally does? (Or when our #1 RB was lost before the season even started?). I'd venture a guess that losing those guys had just as much to do with the final score as any of Oregon's stupidity, and the UW still won.

    I've actually read, countless times, about people having a new level of respect for Oregon after watching them play.

    Really? What was it about Oregon that bolstered people's respect for them?

    Their coach, who can't seem to get out of his own way?

    The UW defense forcing Oregon to go 0 for 3 on 4th downs?

    The UW offense, going deep to burn the Oregon defense for the game winning touchdown for the second year in a row?

    Or was it Oregon's special teams, failing to execute when given a chance to tie the game?

    Maybe it was watching a bunch of Oregon dudes wallow around on the turf like bitches faking injuries?

    What combination of those factors made people have MORE respect for Oregon?

    UW took that game from Oregon, said thank you very much, and then ushered them onto their bus so they could soak in their collective failures. That's what winners do. I wish we'd stop fucking apologizing for it.

    People RESPECT Oregon after that game because they were able to hang in there with mighty Washington.
  • PostGameOrangeSlicesPostGameOrangeSlices Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 26,220 Swaye's Wigwam

    Isn't the point of your post the same exact thing that Doog employs currently any time the 2018 game comes up when trying rationalize the OT loss? You know, that if Pete had only been a bigger dick coach Washington wins in regulation? I mean, it's all fun and games, but the efforts to establish superiority as a fanbase is at times a little humorous.

    Comparing plays and coaching decisions are slightly different things. And Penix's interception, as it turned out, meant nothing anyway because Oregon didn't capitalize. Lanning going for it rather than taking the points meant 3 pts, of course assuming the guy doesn't miss from 10 yards out, which is an assumption.

    Also, PGOS just launched a thread the other day proudly asserting that Washington fans blame their coach and their players and their administration when Washington loses football games. Isn't that exactly what the Ducks are doing by calling their coach a dipshit? I mean, I know it's "bow down" around here, but don't hold your breath expecting anyone to actually do it.

    The other thing to consider is that, if the "what if" game were to be ruled out of order here, half the site's traffic disappears.

    Lastly, I've not read a serious post by anyone suggesting that UW was just lucky. In fact, I've read a ton of praise being heaped on Penix and the WRs, a ton of criticism about their coach and not a small amount of criticism of Nix. How much boot licking is required?

    This seems to be an effort to find a problem that's not really there.

    Look on Duck reddit and twitter

    We ARE the superior fanbase. Which is why this website with free speech exists

    Hth
  • backthepackbackthepack Member Posts: 19,861

    It doesnt matter if Uw had to go 99 yards. They went 3 plays and scored in 20 fucking seconds from midfield

    Wash Ton fans, open yo mutha fucking eyes

    (Some Wash Ton fans)

    2 plays actually
  • TheHBTheHB Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 6,084 Swaye's Wigwam

    I think it's accurate and a gripe that making everything about Lanning making bad calls there and not getting it is distracting from:

    1. The Husky defense doing a great job in tough 3rd and 4th down situations. It's really fucking hard to get modern offenses off the field with losses of down.
    2. The Husky offense and team as a whole making winners win plays

    I remember damn well in 2019 and possibly 2018 Mario going for it in tough 4th downs and it really swinging the game by getting it

    To me the Huskies having a scheme but also kind of having it be backyard our best players will beat your players instead of Oregon's kind of Petersen like dink and dunk ground control ball control shit which doesn't work in tight moments and when you just plain need to score. The Franklin TD and long pass down the field were set up by shit they had to run for 3 quarters.

    I'm kind of tired about the bitching about the Nix sprint out passes. What? You thought he was going to drop back and get the conversions that way? They also tried to run on that third and short where Lanning got the timeout or shit in but the play ran and got fucking blown out. Their short yardage run game was slipping as the game went on. They were also struggling to pass pro.

    Some of you might want to shield your eyes as I'm about to posit a hypothetical...

    But if Oregon runs a draw play on that final fourth down they probably gain 7-15 yards.
    There you go with the probablys again. UW did stop Oregon on a 3rd down run earlier in the drive but got saved by a late TO.

    Also, for those bagging on the sprint out playcall, I’m pretty sure Oregon scored on that play earlier in the game. So there was some positive recent history with it.
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