We won caz penix is not a lil bitch QB that we are accustomed to having. Grubb did some questionable play calling, but got bailed out by the talent. We should thank Junior Adam for getting them here
I actually didn’t have a problem with any of Lannings decisions. Even the one before half, which is probably the most debatable one, was an attempt to deflate the entire stadium. Didn’t work but you are still only down 4 with the ball back.
The play calling on the other hand was beyond fucktarded. I think 2 of the 3 were roll out passes, which hardly ever work in those situations.
I actually didn’t have a problem with any of Lannings decisions. Even the one before half, which is probably the most debatable one, was an attempt to deflate the entire stadium. Didn’t work but you are still only down 4 with the ball back.
The play calling on the other hand was beyond fucktarded. I think 2 of the 3 were roll out passes, which hardly ever work in those situations.
I don’t have any problem with them, either. In fact, I think they were all terrific choices.
I think it's accurate and a gripe that making everything about Lanning making bad calls there and not getting it is distracting from:
1. The Husky defense doing a great job in tough 3rd and 4th down situations. It's really fucking hard to get modern offenses off the field with losses of down. 2. The Husky offense and team as a whole making winners win plays
I remember damn well in 2019 and possibly 2018 Mario going for it in tough 4th downs and it really swinging the game by getting it
To me the Huskies having a scheme but also kind of having it be backyard our best players will beat your players instead of Oregon's kind of Petersen like dink and dunk ground control ball control shit which doesn't work in tight moments and when you just plain need to score. The Franklin TD and long pass down the field were set up by shit they had to run for 3 quarters.
I'm kind of tired about the bitching about the Nix sprint out passes. What? You thought he was going to drop back and get the conversions that way? They also tried to run on that third and short where Lanning got the timeout or shit in but the play ran and got fucking blown out. Their short yardage run game was slipping as the game went on. They were also struggling to pass pro.
I unequivocally believe Lanning made the right decision on the last 4th down. This is how I break it down:
Go for it: 50% chance of success = win the game 50% chance of failure, subsequent outcomes are --20% stop UW, win the game --40% give up TD to UW with not enough time left on clock, lose the game --40% give up TD to UW but with time left on clock to win/tie ----10% score winning TD ----60% do not score, lose the game ----30% make tying FG, go to OT where it's 50/50
That all adds up to (for Oregon) 65% win 35% loss
Punting: 30% chance to stop UW, win the game 70% chance UW scores TD --95% chance not enough time left on clock, lose the game --5% chance time on clock and make FG to tie, 50/50
That comes out to (with rounding) 32% win 68% lose
Basically have to believe Oregon had a better than 60% chance to stop UW, with all 4 downs available, or that their chance of moving the ball 3 yards were less than 40%, to think punting was a better decision.
In agreement on the basic principles there. This is the NFL 4th down stats from the last ten years. Have to figure that many of these are in the red zone, a 4th and 3 from inside the ten is harder than one at midfield theoretically. So that combined with it being college makes Oregon's 4th and 3 had probably 50/50 chance, or maybe even better as you said.
If I'm Lanning, I'm thinking that my odds are even better than that, because Oregon's offense had been moving the ball better than your average NFL team, statistically speaking.
Oregon's yards per play against UW was over 7. The NFL average is between 5 and 6.
I haven't seen one single fan apologize for the win.
Pretty sure it was a figure of speech.
But many folks have said we only won because Lanning fucked up.
Including some posters here.
It's a loser narrative.
Lanning made stupid decisions based upon data on UW' defense that rarely played into the 4th quarter. Those decisions allowed us to hold 0regon to 33 points. It is a different game if he kicks the field goals (or punts).
He now has much better data on UW's defense.
It is still appropriate to thank Lanning for making bad decisions on bad data.
Watching @DerekJohnson and @RaceBannon disagree in this thread is triggering. Feels like watching my two dads argue before they got divorced.
I don't see any big deal in this. We're all hanging out here talking about football for god's sake. Lanning made terrible decisions but Washington capitalized and won the game. End of discussion as far as I'm concerned.
Hang on -- someone's at my front door trying to serve me some sort of papers. Be right back.
I think it's accurate and a gripe that making everything about Lanning making bad calls there and not getting it is distracting from:
1. The Husky defense doing a great job in tough 3rd and 4th down situations. It's really fucking hard to get modern offenses off the field with losses of down. 2. The Husky offense and team as a whole making winners win plays
I remember damn well in 2019 and possibly 2018 Mario going for it in tough 4th downs and it really swinging the game by getting it
To me the Huskies having a scheme but also kind of having it be backyard our best players will beat your players instead of Oregon's kind of Petersen like dink and dunk ground control ball control shit which doesn't work in tight moments and when you just plain need to score. The Franklin TD and long pass down the field were set up by shit they had to run for 3 quarters.
I'm kind of tired about the bitching about the Nix sprint out passes. What? You thought he was going to drop back and get the conversions that way? They also tried to run on that third and short where Lanning got the timeout or shit in but the play ran and got fucking blown out. Their short yardage run game was slipping as the game went on. They were also struggling to pass pro.
Again, I don't understand the bitching about other people bitching about their own coach and, increasingly, about their QB and play calling. No offense, but there is a lot of rationalizing that goes on around here after a loss, and very rarely does that narrative borrow on the idea that Washington simply lost to their superiors. Not in a tight game that. We? read reams of material here poking at the other team in an attempt to downplay who they are after a loss. You could teach a graduate course in it (no offense). But from this game I've seen little of that from them. If anything, everyone is still stroking Penix.
Last things on this from me on this. Of course the punt decision is debatable, but it's not like they didn't have stops in the second half; and giving W the ball at mid-field after a big 4th down stop is a mo swinger and a different task than potentially getting pinned deep. Sure, I like Penix's chances; but I like them a lot better the way it played out. Good coaches punt there IMO. Lastly, the sprint out pass play was not great play calling for the reasons given, and because it had already not worked at all on multiple previous attempts. Old Oregon would design a play like that going one way and then get it to someone on the other side of the field in space. Two or three times it was just forced into an auditorium of people. Bad call. They may or may not have made it on another play call, but that one was destined to fail. They may need to look elsewhere for a coordinator, because I for one was more impressed with Nix last year than I am this year.
I think it's accurate and a gripe that making everything about Lanning making bad calls there and not getting it is distracting from:
1. The Husky defense doing a great job in tough 3rd and 4th down situations. It's really fucking hard to get modern offenses off the field with losses of down. 2. The Husky offense and team as a whole making winners win plays
I remember damn well in 2019 and possibly 2018 Mario going for it in tough 4th downs and it really swinging the game by getting it
To me the Huskies having a scheme but also kind of having it be backyard our best players will beat your players instead of Oregon's kind of Petersen like dink and dunk ground control ball control shit which doesn't work in tight moments and when you just plain need to score. The Franklin TD and long pass down the field were set up by shit they had to run for 3 quarters.
I'm kind of tired about the bitching about the Nix sprint out passes. What? You thought he was going to drop back and get the conversions that way? They also tried to run on that third and short where Lanning got the timeout or shit in but the play ran and got fucking blown out. Their short yardage run game was slipping as the game went on. They were also struggling to pass pro.
Some of you might want to shield your eyes as I'm about to posit a hypothetical...
But if Oregon runs a draw play on that final fourth down they probably gain 7-15 yards.
I can't believe how many UW fans have spent the last 3 days apologizing for the win, as if the UW took something that didn't belong to them.
Lanning is an idiot, but he's an idiot for making stupid decisions against a team that was BETTER than his team. You can get away with that stupid shit against Portland State, but those morons needed every point they could get against UW because the UW is better than them.
And even with Lanning's stupidity, his players still had a chance to execute, and they failed, repeatedly ... because the UW is better than them.
Do you remember when our #2 receiver got hurt and walked off the field and didn't play for the rest of the game? Or how about when our #4 receiver got hurt and didn't play for the rest of the game? Or seeing our best D-lineman play 1/2 the snaps he normally does? (Or when our #1 RB was lost before the season even started?). I'd venture a guess that losing those guys had just as much to do with the final score as any of Oregon's stupidity, and the UW still won.
I've actually read, countless times, about people having a new level of respect for Oregon after watching them play.
Really? What was it about Oregon that bolstered people's respect for them?
Their coach, who can't seem to get out of his own way?
The UW defense forcing Oregon to go 0 for 3 on 4th downs?
The UW offense, going deep to burn the Oregon defense for the game winning touchdown for the second year in a row?
Or was it Oregon's special teams, failing to execute when given a chance to tie the game?
Maybe it was watching a bunch of Oregon dudes wallow around on the turf like bitches faking injuries?
What combination of those factors made people have MORE respect for Oregon?
UW took that game from Oregon, said thank you very much, and then ushered them onto their bus so they could soak in their collective failures. That's what winners do. I wish we'd stop fucking apologizing for it.
People RESPECT Oregon after that game because they were able to hang in there with mighty Washington.
Isn't the point of your post the same exact thing that Doog employs currently any time the 2018 game comes up when trying rationalize the OT loss? You know, that if Pete had only been a bigger dick coach Washington wins in regulation? I mean, it's all fun and games, but the efforts to establish superiority as a fanbase is at times a little humorous.
Comparing plays and coaching decisions are slightly different things. And Penix's interception, as it turned out, meant nothing anyway because Oregon didn't capitalize. Lanning going for it rather than taking the points meant 3 pts, of course assuming the guy doesn't miss from 10 yards out, which is an assumption.
Also, PGOS just launched a thread the other day proudly asserting that Washington fans blame their coach and their players and their administration when Washington loses football games. Isn't that exactly what the Ducks are doing by calling their coach a dipshit? I mean, I know it's "bow down" around here, but don't hold your breath expecting anyone to actually do it.
The other thing to consider is that, if the "what if" game were to be ruled out of order here, half the site's traffic disappears.
Lastly, I've not read a serious post by anyone suggesting that UW was just lucky. In fact, I've read a ton of praise being heaped on Penix and the WRs, a ton of criticism about their coach and not a small amount of criticism of Nix. How much boot licking is required?
This seems to be an effort to find a problem that's not really there.
Look on Duck reddit and twitter
We ARE the superior fanbase. Which is why this website with free speech exists
I haven't seen one single fan apologize for the win.
Pretty sure it was a figure of speech.
But many folks have said we only won because Lanning fucked up.
Including some posters here.
It's a loser narrative.
If Lanning punts with 2:00 left, UW probably loses. That doesn't mean Penix & Co. didn't take advantage to win.
The team now famous for the 3 play 75 yard drive couldn't score in 2 minutes?
Only Grubb can stop UW and he would not have
Neither would Oregon
I agree with Derek, Oregon wins with a punt.
You're both wrong
Hopefully the two of you get a chance to watch the Huskies play this year
2 plays from the 50. 3 from the 20
Same reason Carroll went for it at midfield against Texas. Vince Young was going to score regardless
Well we're shoulders deep in hypotheticals here. Oregon had all the momentum. Penix was in so much pain it altered Grubb's playcalling just moments earlier.
Could I see Penix suddenly leading a 90-yard TD drive with either one or no times outs? Sure, off course. It's Penix. But the odds were still in Oregon's favor. It was colossally reckless of Lanning to do what he did. Especially given their subsequent play call.
It’s Michael fucking Penix we are talking about here. The dude who was freestyling on the sideline down 4 with 3 minutes left while having severe abdominal cramps. If Oregon punts they don’t get the ball back with any meaningful chance left. Winners find a way.
I think it's accurate and a gripe that making everything about Lanning making bad calls there and not getting it is distracting from:
1. The Husky defense doing a great job in tough 3rd and 4th down situations. It's really fucking hard to get modern offenses off the field with losses of down. 2. The Husky offense and team as a whole making winners win plays
I remember damn well in 2019 and possibly 2018 Mario going for it in tough 4th downs and it really swinging the game by getting it
To me the Huskies having a scheme but also kind of having it be backyard our best players will beat your players instead of Oregon's kind of Petersen like dink and dunk ground control ball control shit which doesn't work in tight moments and when you just plain need to score. The Franklin TD and long pass down the field were set up by shit they had to run for 3 quarters.
I'm kind of tired about the bitching about the Nix sprint out passes. What? You thought he was going to drop back and get the conversions that way? They also tried to run on that third and short where Lanning got the timeout or shit in but the play ran and got fucking blown out. Their short yardage run game was slipping as the game went on. They were also struggling to pass pro.
Some of you might want to shield your eyes as I'm about to posit a hypothetical...
But if Oregon runs a draw play on that final fourth down they probably gain 7-15 yards.
There you go with the probablys again. UW did stop Oregon on a 3rd down run earlier in the drive but got saved by a late TO.
Also, for those bagging on the sprint out playcall, I’m pretty sure Oregon scored on that play earlier in the game. So there was some positive recent history with it.
Comments
I think that's where you criticize Lanning. The play calls
I wanted to fire Petersen for punting 10 yards closer
The play calling on the other hand was beyond fucktarded. I think 2 of the 3 were roll out passes, which hardly ever work in those situations.
1. The Husky defense doing a great job in tough 3rd and 4th down situations. It's really fucking hard to get modern offenses off the field with losses of down.
2. The Husky offense and team as a whole making winners win plays
I remember damn well in 2019 and possibly 2018 Mario going for it in tough 4th downs and it really swinging the game by getting it
To me the Huskies having a scheme but also kind of having it be backyard our best players will beat your players instead of Oregon's kind of Petersen like dink and dunk ground control ball control shit which doesn't work in tight moments and when you just plain need to score. The Franklin TD and long pass down the field were set up by shit they had to run for 3 quarters.
I'm kind of tired about the bitching about the Nix sprint out passes. What? You thought he was going to drop back and get the conversions that way? They also tried to run on that third and short where Lanning got the timeout or shit in but the play ran and got fucking blown out. Their short yardage run game was slipping as the game went on. They were also struggling to pass pro.
Oregon's yards per play against UW was over 7. The NFL average is between 5 and 6.
He now has much better data on UW's defense.
It is still appropriate to thank Lanning for making bad decisions on bad data.
Hang on -- someone's at my front door trying to serve me some sort of papers. Be right back.
Last things on this from me on this. Of course the punt decision is debatable, but it's not like they didn't have stops in the second half; and giving W the ball at mid-field after a big 4th down stop is a mo swinger and a different task than potentially getting pinned deep. Sure, I like Penix's chances; but I like them a lot better the way it played out. Good coaches punt there IMO. Lastly, the sprint out pass play was not great play calling for the reasons given, and because it had already not worked at all on multiple previous attempts. Old Oregon would design a play like that going one way and then get it to someone on the other side of the field in space. Two or three times it was just forced into an auditorium of people. Bad call. They may or may not have made it on another play call, but that one was destined to fail. They may need to look elsewhere for a coordinator, because I for one was more impressed with Nix last year than I am this year.
But if Oregon runs a draw play on that final fourth down they probably gain 7-15 yards.
We ARE the superior fanbase. Which is why this website with free speech exists
Hth
Wash Ton fans, open yo mutha fucking eyes
(Some Wash Ton fans)
Also, for those bagging on the sprint out playcall, I’m pretty sure Oregon scored on that play earlier in the game. So there was some positive recent history with it.