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Mariners offseason prediction is in.
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Ideally the M's sign Soler to a 3 year, 45 million deal. As the writer mentions, back-loaded would be ideal (such as $11 mil first year, $16 mil in 2025, and $18 mil in 2026). Still can play a little RF / LF but probably don't want him out there for more than 20 games).
https://mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/mariners-rumors-jorge-soler-diamondbacks-free-agent.html
Then they trade for Arozarena in LF and Paredes at 3B and most would be forgiven. Otherwise, it would be sad if they went and got Tommy Pham for LF. 1 year at $5 million would allow them to keep prospects but actually be short-sighted. -
I hope dipshit owner sells his soul and somehow the M's pull Ohtani out of their ass.
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It's still possible for Dipoto to salvage this mess as long as he can go into the $140s. It would take some smart moves.
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Fyfmfe, ohtani to Dodgers for 700 mil
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For real? JFC that's retarded.PurpleReign said:Fyfmfe, ohtani to Dodgers for 700 mil
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I don't understand the idea of paying Ohtani as a 2-way player when the guy has blown his elbow out twice. $70 mil a year is full retard for a DH and 3rd guy in the rotation (when he can actually throw a year from now).
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Might be BS, but my sources are telling me M's offered 1 year for $65 mil.
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I actually don't doubt it that much. One year at that price would've been weird, but who knows? I believed all along that Stanton would authorize Dipoto to pursue Ohtani but with limits. Had no idea what the limits would be.PurpleReign said:Might be BS, but my sources are telling me M's offered 1 year for $65 mil.
I'd like to think that it was Seattle that bid the price up just to try and make it hurt. -
I just remembered that this gives me some relief from a big mistake I made with my fantasy team. I had Ohtani (hitter only) for $28. He would've been worth freezing at that price had he stayed eligible for our league (American League teams).
For some reason, when he shut it down and sold his couch before the season ended, I impulsively dumped him. I should've just put him on the DL or even sacrificed a bench spot just to keep that option open for next season. Dumb move that I can stop kicking myself for now. -
What moves would you make if you were Dipoto?chuck said:It's still possible for Dipoto to salvage this mess as long as he can go into the $140s. It would take some smart moves.
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He may have to sign Snell to ship Woo/Miller for bats. I’m not a fan of this because of Snell’s command, but I’m on board if it can get a corner thumper.HFNY said:
What moves would you make if you were Dipoto?chuck said:It's still possible for Dipoto to salvage this mess as long as he can go into the $140s. It would take some smart moves.
$70,000,000 per year…I guess money did matter. Belli and Chapman just got a lot richer, and probably some other guys too…the negotiations just got a lot tougher.
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EDIT: Snell is really fucking good, don’t get me wrong. The game has changed sooooooo much, with count-leverage and sequencing. Snell’s shit is so good that he cuts against the trend, but five is five. He is a bullpen shredder…
I would peg Bellinger to the Giants, and maybe Chapman as well. They whiffed on Correia, Judge, and now Shohei. Chapman has played for BoMel, they have money to burn, and a fan base/media that is not as forgiving as Seattle. The clubs that were in on Shohei will be wheeling and dealing now…I don’t include the M’s in that grouping -
Soler for 3-4 years would be the big $ move in FAHFNY said:
What moves would you make if you were Dipoto?chuck said:It's still possible for Dipoto to salvage this mess as long as he can go into the $140s. It would take some smart moves.
Figure out a package that brings both Arozarena AND Parades. If this means you have to give up a top 3 prospect along with Miller and Hancock then do it. If thawork then Gilbert is in play.
Swap a couple of lower tier prospects for outfield depth.
Find a reclamation project starter or two and make them functional #5s.
Find a high leverage bullpen arm or two.
Hope like hell for health, further improvement by Julio and a rebirth for France.
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Soler will run about $15 million and Arozarena will probably be $9 million in arb so $24 million may take up most (if not all) of the FA budget if the M's are being as tight with money as I think they are.chuck said:
Soler for 3-4 years would be the big $ move in FAHFNY said:
What moves would you make if you were Dipoto?chuck said:It's still possible for Dipoto to salvage this mess as long as he can go into the $140s. It would take some smart moves.
Figure out a package that brings both Arozarena AND Parades. If this means you have to give up a top 3 prospect along with Miller and Hancock then do it. If thawork then Gilbert is in play.
Swap a couple of lower tier prospects for outfield depth.
Find a reclamation project starter or two and make them functional #5s.
Find a high leverage bullpen arm or two.
Hope like hell for health, further improvement by Julio and a rebirth for France.
If they aren't as tight, maybe they really go for Bellinger to play LF (he can always move to 1B if Ty France stinks) and Tommy Pham as DH for $5 million (plus spelling Bellinger and Canzone in the OF). That would run about $31 million.
I personally favor Soler and Arozarena & Paredes. That would solve LF, 3B, and DH while also increasing INF depth in moving Urias to a utility guy (he hits LHP well). But Arozarena & Paredes would cost at least Gilbert and a top position prospect while I'm not sure the M's FO is willing to trade a top pitcher. -
Mariners the most profitable team in baseball despite being ~18th in payroll last year 😂
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M's trade for Naylor and then move Ty France and a lottery ticket to the White Sox for Eloy Jimenez? That would upgrade 1B and fill DH for about $24 million but I like Arozarena in LF and Paredes at 3B more.
https://mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/cubs-mariners-pirates-interested-in-josh-naylor.html -
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given their ballpark and the chronic need for power, there is one guy out their that is a difference maker, and I create a deal pitching deal to get him and then sign him long term. Build the power around Pete Alonzo. Everything else they would do doesn't really matter without a long term power guy to build around. Get it done. Sign a 3rd baseman while you are at it.
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Alonzo would be a one year rental though as I doubt he'd sign an extension before hitting FA.TheRoarOfTheCrowd said:given their ballpark and the chronic need for power, there is one guy out their that is a difference maker, and I create a deal pitching deal to get him and then sign him long term. Build the power around Pete Alonzo. Everything else they would do doesn't really matter without a long term power guy to build around. Get it done. Sign a 3rd baseman while you are at it.
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Even if the M's had the money, I don't know if an 8 year, $200 million plus deal would be worth it:
https://mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/cody-bellinger-reportedly-seeking-200mm-or-more-in-free-agency.html -
When you are dealing from such a profoundly weak position, you gotta overpay…when the priorities appear to be “controllable years” and “sustainable”…they are fucked, and I’m here for it. Over-under for a Julio opt-out is…5HFNY said:Even if the M's had the money, I don't know if an 8 year, $200 million plus deal would be worth it:
https://mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/cody-bellinger-reportedly-seeking-200mm-or-more-in-free-agency.html -
The only way this works out is if Dipoto can work some magic and make a couple of great adds on the cheap. I don't know who those guys are. Bellinger definitely isn't in the picture. They need some AJ Pollack/Colten Wong type guys to come through with huge seasons. Otherwise this whole thing dies with a whimper.Fishpo31 said:
When you are dealing from such a profoundly weak position, you gotta overpay…when the priorities appear to be “controllable years” and “sustainable”…they are fucked, and I’m here for it. Over-under for a Julio opt-out is…5HFNY said:Even if the M's had the money, I don't know if an 8 year, $200 million plus deal would be worth it:
https://mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/cody-bellinger-reportedly-seeking-200mm-or-more-in-free-agency.html -
What if the M's traded Castillo? They could get a very good controllable bat (OF or 3B) and a #4 starter in return, maybe a pretty good AA pitching prospect.
That would then free up around $10 million (assuming the bat and starter cost about $14 million), which they could then spend on a DH. -
Yeah I considered that kind of move too. Would suck to have to do that but better than doing nothing.HFNY said:What if the M's traded Castillo? They could get a very good controllable bat (OF or 3B) and a #4 starter in return, maybe a pretty good AA pitching prospect.
That would then free up around $10 million (assuming the bat and starter cost about $14 million), which they could then spend on a DH. -
For me, if that is the move, they might as well do nothing. WS teams don't trade an ace for "depth", they trade them for a perennial All Star bat, and a top-of-the-line prospect(s)...chuck said:
Yeah I considered that kind of move too. Would suck to have to do that but better than doing nothing.HFNY said:What if the M's traded Castillo? They could get a very good controllable bat (OF or 3B) and a #4 starter in return, maybe a pretty good AA pitching prospect.
That would then free up around $10 million (assuming the bat and starter cost about $14 million), which they could then spend on a DH.
Unfortunately, perennial All Star bats are often on their 2nd contract, and usually have no-trade clauses, and as has been well-documented, hitters don't want to play in Seattle. It reminds me of when they traded Randy Johnson...they got 3 very serviceable big leaguers who had solid careers, and RJ won a WS, several Cy's...the M's didn't want to pay a shitload of $$$ for a guy with a questionable back, and Randy wanted out. They got a "good" haul for him, but all anyone talks about is how Woodward got fleeced. His hand was forced.
They will never get close to equal value for Castillo, so I imagine it will happen soon..."Controllable"...They had three of the best hitters in the game in the 90's, and were short on pitching. Now they have the pitching but need bats, and no one wants to come here..."Sustainable, controllable" = mediocre...same as it ever was...
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Yeah, they are probably waiting for other chips to fall so that other teams use up more of their budget (Bellinger, Chapman, and Snell for instance) so that they can drive a harder bargain (Soler, Pham, Joc Pederson, etc etc) for those who remain.
I still think they should deal one of the young arms for a controllable bat since they have a need for at least 2 bats (at a corner OF spot and DH....if Urias sticks at 3B for a year). Robbie Ray will come back in July or August and they could plug a spot with James Paxton, Alex Wood, or Clevinger on a 1 year deal with a club option for a 2nd year. -
I think my strategy now is to not trade any pitching. If you trade one you have to go get one. The only one they can trade that would make any kind of fiscal sense would be Castillo since that possibly frees up enough money to get another pitcher or two in addition to whatever salaries came back as part of the trade.
I don't fucking know. I'm pretty much in burn it down mode at this point. There's a way to put a contender on the field for peanuts the way the seem to want to, but it can't be done with half measures. If they want to go young and controllable and sustainable they might as well commit to it and that means dealing big contracts in exchange for those controllable players. Castillo is the biggest contract they have left that is moveable. -
Should have never torn down the Kingdome. The owners suck, but Safeco (or whatever it's called now) really screwed up the ability to recruit/keep bats here.
