Massive and frequent testing is our only way out of this
So we can keep doing this song and dance of opening, closing, and distancing for the next 18 months, which is probably the status quo needed to prevent the hospital system from being overwhelmed, and we'll all wake up when this is over in 2022 with a third world economy. Or we can actually inject some precision into our response and better understand who, when, and where infections are happening. That'll require testing to the tunes of millions per day, much larger than our current rate of 100,000 per day.
Noted liberal rag Vox (sorry @Sledog, you might want to sit this one out) gives a pretty good breakdown of the different estimates out there for how much testing is likely needed to open our economy back to an acceptable level. In short - we've got a long ways to go.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening
Comments
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The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
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Actually, my thought from the beginning is that regionally, many more people have been exposed than are known, and the vast majority of those were unaffected.
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Whether or not that's true is a moot point. The Tug isn't going to be in charge of the pandemic response anytime soon.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
What is true is that most of the world is convinced that letting the disease run amok will overwhelm the hospital systems. You can argue about how stupid that is, but no government is going to choose door 1 of "let's go back to normal with no mitigating steps". So the only realistic way out of here is wide scale testing. -
Very possible, if not likely. Massive testing would reveal that truth and let us get back to normal that much quicker.GrundleStiltzkin said:Actually, my thought from the beginning is that regionally, many more people have been exposed than are known, and the vast majority of those were unaffected.
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Could you share Friday's lottery numbers since you can see the future?MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
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Now it seems like it’s shifted to a narrative that not one more person can die, doesn’t matter what that costs.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
We were lied to about the capacity issues being real, but at least that early narrative had some semblance of logic from a business and resources perspective.
Mass testing is fucking stupid and isn’t going to happen. It’s totally unexecutable and not necessary, targeted sampling is enough. -
Is it most of the world or do we assume that because that is the story being shoved down our throat?GreenRiverGatorz said:
Whether or not that's true is a moot point. The Tug isn't going to be in charge of the pandemic response anytime soon.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
What is true is that most of the world is convinced that letting the disease run amok will overwhelm the hospital systems. You can argue about how stupid that is, but no government is going to choose door 1 of "let's go back to normal with no mitigating steps". So the only realistic way out of here is wide scale testing.
I agree that the government and companies are going to be pussies until we make it clear. Its a huge issue
If tests will open then test -
And I'm not sure if "massive" testing is necessary. Smart randomized testing would probably suffice.GreenRiverGatorz said:
Very possible, if not likely. Massive testing would reveal that truth and let us get back to normal that much quicker.GrundleStiltzkin said:Actually, my thought from the beginning is that regionally, many more people have been exposed than are known, and the vast majority of those were unaffected.
edit: what @Bob_C said -
Fuck off. Tee it up boys
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The problem with massive testing is that it’s really just a point in time result.
Anybody can get tested right now, be clean, then go to the grocery store 30 minutes later and be infected.
Save the testing for areas where there’s reason for concern ... can’t go through airport security unless you test negative -
What will you do with the information obtained from mass testing that you can act on today without mass testing? Other than help assuage fears? Testing is only a snapshot in time. People without antibodies are still at risk of being infected and those with antibodies are at risk of getting infected again as the virus mutates. All viruses mutate.
Normal protocol is to isolate the sick and vulnerable and let the healthy go about their lives. If a vaccine becomes available let those that choose to get vaccinated do so. Continue to manufacture and make available HCQ as a treatment.
The health authorities, their predictive models and the Governors that
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Agreed, which is why the proposals don't rely on a single instance of testing and instead require frequent retesting until we can get a better idea of the exact scope of the problem. Start wide and then narrow.Tequilla said:The problem with massive testing is that it’s really just a point in time result.
Anybody can get tested right now, be clean, then go to the grocery store 30 minutes later and be infected.
Save the testing for areas where there’s reason for concern ... can’t go through airport security unless you test negative -
In your estimation, what does targeted sampling looks like? Most studies want us to get to that point, but until we know where the true weak points in the country are, it's just blind testing. I haven't read anything that suggests effective targeted sampling is possible without first having large scale testing.Bob_C said:
Now it seems like it’s shifted to a narrative that not one more person can die, doesn’t matter what that costs.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
We were lied to about the capacity issues being real, but at least that early narrative had some semblance of logic from a business and resources perspective.
Mass testing is fucking stupid and isn’t going to happen. It’s totally unexecutable and not necessary, targeted sampling is enough. -
lolBob_C said:
Now it seems like it’s shifted to a narrative that not one more person can die, doesn’t matter what that costs.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
We were lied to about the capacity issues being real, but at least that early narrative had some semblance of logic from a business and resources perspective.
Mass testing is fucking stupid and isn’t going to happen. It’s totally unexecutable and not necessary, targeted sampling is enough.
We put a man on the moon, can't pull off widespread testing.
Sure thing.
Business leaders told Trump mass testing is critical. Bulletin board Bob_C says it isn't, not even possible.
Take you pick -
Testing has become an excuse
But experts say..
The same dumbfucks that got us here -
That's kinda the whole point. Fear rules the day/week/months right now.Dude61 said:What will you do with the information obtained from mass testing that you can act on today without mass testing? Other than help assuage fears? Testing is only a snapshot in time. People without antibodies are still at risk of being infected and those with antibodies are at risk of getting infected again as the virus mutates. All viruses mutate.
Normal protocol is to isolate the sick and vulnerable and let the healthy go about their lives. If a vaccine becomes available let those that choose to get vaccinated do so. Continue to manufacture and make available HCQ as a treatment.
The health authorities, their predictive models and the Governors that -
Business leaders got us here?
No they didn't.
These guys are experts - in business, not health care, and they say we need mass testing. Of course, the Coca Cola CEO got behind new Coke, so maybe they aren't experts.
Is there a problem with mass testing? Is it about muh freedom? Did I miss the case against mass testing? Did Hillary say we need mass testing? -
Massive win for the Field, in my opinion.RaceBannon said:
Fuck off. Tee it up boys -
“Most of the world” = politicians who panicked based on faulty computer models and then realized it was perfect opportunity to advance and agenda. See Gavin Newsom for details.GreenRiverGatorz said:
Whether or not that's true is a moot point. The Tug isn't going to be in charge of the pandemic response anytime soon.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
What is true is that most of the world is convinced that letting the disease run amok will overwhelm the hospital systems. You can argue about how stupid that is, but no government is going to choose door 1 of "let's go back to normal with no mitigating steps". So the only realistic way out of here is wide scale testing. -
I’m too busy worrying about peak oil, net neutrality and WWIII after killing soleimani to play the lottery.HustlinOwl said:
Could you share Friday's lottery numbers since you can see the future?MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
I’m definitely not going to look to the computer models for my lottery number. Their track record is worse than mine.
“Here we go....!!” -
One development is they’ve realized ventilators are a bad option, I’ve read 70% of people going on them aren’t coming off. they’ve had success with just oxygen and laying on your chest. If it’s true that ventilators aren’t a bottleneck then the capacity of the health system just increased 100x.
Then say everyone over 60 should still quarantine, and start relaxing measures to get people back to work.
They still need to get testing capacity up 10-100x which seems to be stalling out at 150k a day.
Where is the results of that Stanford antibody test? -
And just like that, Greenriver joins the ranks of the coronabros.
Everyone knows that the cases are 2 to 3 times what has been reported. The cases don't matter. What matters is hospitalization and deaths. And now your vaunted experts are openly lying about deaths, padding the stats to try to save the hospitals that they thought were saving from overload but are only bankrupting.
You have joined the ranks of the idiots that think we will get this down to 0 cases. "Cuz derp, Look at China, they don't have any cases, derp, And if we can't, derp, get to zero cases, derp, we need to stay shut down, derp until we have a vaccine, derp"
Guess what? We have vaccines for SARS 1, H1N1 and all of the other flus. And guess what, they come back and sicken millions of Americans every year and kill anywhere from 25 to 70 thousand per year. Many that took the vaccine.
The I'm gonna trust the coaches strategy is idiotic as the Coaches have done multiple 180's within the last month on this.
My only hope is that those that still have some common sense left, will wiin the day. But it's not looking good, because we are losing more and moar of them everyday.
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Okay!MikeDamone said:
“Most of the world” = politicians who panicked based on faulty computer models and then realized it was perfect opportunity to advance and agenda. See Gavin Newsom for details.GreenRiverGatorz said:
Whether or not that's true is a moot point. The Tug isn't going to be in charge of the pandemic response anytime soon.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
What is true is that most of the world is convinced that letting the disease run amok will overwhelm the hospital systems. You can argue about how stupid that is, but no government is going to choose door 1 of "let's go back to normal with no mitigating steps". So the only realistic way out of here is wide scale testing.
I'm sure your debunking of the "computer models" is a fascinating read, but the fact remains that the world economy isn't going to open back up for business whether you, me, or even fucking Trump thinks it's safe to do so. That's not happening until confidence is restored, and right now testing looks like the fastest way to get that done. -
I agree since I didn't say business leaders got us here. I said the experts diddflea said:Business leaders got us here?
No they didn't.
These guys are experts - in business, not health care, and they say we need mass testing. Of course, the Coca Cola CEO got behind new Coke, so maybe they aren't experts.
Is there a problem with mass testing? Is it about muh freedom? Did I miss the case against mass testing? Did Hillary say we need mass testing?
Look Fauci could be a saint selflessly toiling for 40 years as a DC drone but human nature is undefeated. The guy became a rock star over night and now he's planning MLB and NFL games.
Elected leaders may be morons but at least they are elected. I know from 20 years of exchanging posts with you that you have more common sense and brains in your pinky that your average functionary
Give the functionary a taste of power and fame and they are going to want to keep it.
Business leaders are far more in tune with Trump. But they will pussy out too if they think they will get ripped on Twitter
It was easier to get in this than it will be to get out of it
We should keep that in mind.
I don't think any of here are all that far apart. The devil is in the details -
I didn't read this, but I disagree.salemcoog said:And just like that, Greenriver joins the ranks of the coronabros.
Everyone knows that the cases are 2 to 3 times what has been reported. The cases don't matter. What matters is hospitalization and deaths. And now your vaunted experts are openly lying about deaths, padding the stats to try to save the hospitals that they thought were saving from overload but are only bankrupting.
You have joined the ranks of the idiots that think we will get this down to 0 cases. "Cuz derp, Look at China, they don't have any cases, derp, And if we can't, derp, get to zero cases, derp, we need to stay shut down, derp until we have a vaccine, derp"
Guess what? We have vaccines for SARS 1, H1N1 and all of the other flus. And guess what, they come back and sicken millions of Americans every year and kill anywhere from 25 to 70 thousand per year. Many that took the vaccine.
The I'm gonna trust the coaches strategy is idiotic as the Coaches have done multiple 180's within the last month on this.
My only hope is that those that still have some common sense left, will wiin the day. But it's not looking good, because we are losing more and moar of them everyday. -
I enjoyed watching the 2019 Masters on Sunday more than I would have the 2020MelloDawg said:
Massive win for the Field, in my opinion.RaceBannon said:
Fuck off. Tee it up boys -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_prison_experimentLoneStarDawg said:One development is they’ve realized ventilators are a bad option, I’ve read 70% of people going on them aren’t coming off. they’ve had success with just oxygen and laying on your chest. If it’s true that ventilators aren’t a bottleneck then the capacity of the health system just increased 100x.
Then say everyone over 60 should still quarantine, and start relaxing measures to get people back to work.
They still need to get testing capacity up 10-100x which seems to be stalling out at 150k a day.
Where is the results of that Stanford antibody test? -
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One million tests a day starting today and we are done next February. Anyone requiring test e
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You shouldn't. You should just probably go back to Facebook. You'll have tons of takers from the scared flock on there.GreenRiverGatorz said:
I didn't read this, but I disagree.salemcoog said:And just like that, Greenriver joins the ranks of the coronabros.
Everyone knows that the cases are 2 to 3 times what has been reported. The cases don't matter. What matters is hospitalization and deaths. And now your vaunted experts are openly lying about deaths, padding the stats to try to save the hospitals that they thought were saving from overload but are only bankrupting.
You have joined the ranks of the idiots that think we will get this down to 0 cases. "Cuz derp, Look at China, they don't have any cases, derp, And if we can't, derp, get to zero cases, derp, we need to stay shut down, derp until we have a vaccine, derp"
Guess what? We have vaccines for SARS 1, H1N1 and all of the other flus. And guess what, they come back and sicken millions of Americans every year and kill anywhere from 25 to 70 thousand per year. Many that took the vaccine.
The I'm gonna trust the coaches strategy is idiotic as the Coaches have done multiple 180's within the last month on this.
My only hope is that those that still have some common sense left, will wiin the day. But it's not looking good, because we are losing more and moar of them everyday.
