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Massive and frequent testing is our only way out of this
GreenRiverGatorz
Member Posts: 10,168
in Tug Tavern
That seems to be the mainstream consensus among those well versed in pandemic response. Noted experts @RaceBannon and @GrundleStiltzkin have already (rightly) pointed out that with so few people having been exposed, social distancing and an economic shutdown is just delaying the inevitable. Even if the number of infected is 10x as much as reported, which is on the high-end of estimates, that still leaves 97% of the country currently unexposed. So whether you shut down the economy for four weeks or four months, a second wave is nearly inevitable if you don't actually identify the clusters of outbreaks before they get out of control.
So we can keep doing this song and dance of opening, closing, and distancing for the next 18 months, which is probably the status quo needed to prevent the hospital system from being overwhelmed, and we'll all wake up when this is over in 2022 with a third world economy. Or we can actually inject some precision into our response and better understand who, when, and where infections are happening. That'll require testing to the tunes of millions per day, much larger than our current rate of 100,000 per day.
Noted liberal rag Vox (sorry @Sledog, you might want to sit this one out) gives a pretty good breakdown of the different estimates out there for how much testing is likely needed to open our economy back to an acceptable level. In short - we've got a long ways to go.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening
So we can keep doing this song and dance of opening, closing, and distancing for the next 18 months, which is probably the status quo needed to prevent the hospital system from being overwhelmed, and we'll all wake up when this is over in 2022 with a third world economy. Or we can actually inject some precision into our response and better understand who, when, and where infections are happening. That'll require testing to the tunes of millions per day, much larger than our current rate of 100,000 per day.
Noted liberal rag Vox (sorry @Sledog, you might want to sit this one out) gives a pretty good breakdown of the different estimates out there for how much testing is likely needed to open our economy back to an acceptable level. In short - we've got a long ways to go.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening
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Comments
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The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
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Actually, my thought from the beginning is that regionally, many more people have been exposed than are known, and the vast majority of those were unaffected.
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Whether or not that's true is a moot point. The Tug isn't going to be in charge of the pandemic response anytime soon.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
What is true is that most of the world is convinced that letting the disease run amok will overwhelm the hospital systems. You can argue about how stupid that is, but no government is going to choose door 1 of "let's go back to normal with no mitigating steps". So the only realistic way out of here is wide scale testing. -
Very possible, if not likely. Massive testing would reveal that truth and let us get back to normal that much quicker.GrundleStiltzkin said:Actually, my thought from the beginning is that regionally, many more people have been exposed than are known, and the vast majority of those were unaffected.
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Could you share Friday's lottery numbers since you can see the future?MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
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Now it seems like it’s shifted to a narrative that not one more person can die, doesn’t matter what that costs.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
We were lied to about the capacity issues being real, but at least that early narrative had some semblance of logic from a business and resources perspective.
Mass testing is fucking stupid and isn’t going to happen. It’s totally unexecutable and not necessary, targeted sampling is enough. -
Is it most of the world or do we assume that because that is the story being shoved down our throat?GreenRiverGatorz said:
Whether or not that's true is a moot point. The Tug isn't going to be in charge of the pandemic response anytime soon.MikeDamone said:The hospital system isn't and was never going to be overwhelmed.
What is true is that most of the world is convinced that letting the disease run amok will overwhelm the hospital systems. You can argue about how stupid that is, but no government is going to choose door 1 of "let's go back to normal with no mitigating steps". So the only realistic way out of here is wide scale testing.
I agree that the government and companies are going to be pussies until we make it clear. Its a huge issue
If tests will open then test -
And I'm not sure if "massive" testing is necessary. Smart randomized testing would probably suffice.GreenRiverGatorz said:
Very possible, if not likely. Massive testing would reveal that truth and let us get back to normal that much quicker.GrundleStiltzkin said:Actually, my thought from the beginning is that regionally, many more people have been exposed than are known, and the vast majority of those were unaffected.
edit: what @Bob_C said -
Fuck off. Tee it up boys
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The problem with massive testing is that it’s really just a point in time result.
Anybody can get tested right now, be clean, then go to the grocery store 30 minutes later and be infected.
Save the testing for areas where there’s reason for concern ... can’t go through airport security unless you test negative
