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Massive and frequent testing is our only way out of this
GreenRiverGatorz
Member Posts: 10,160
in Tug Tavern
That seems to be the mainstream consensus among those well versed in pandemic response. Noted experts @RaceBannon and @GrundleStiltzkin have already (rightly) pointed out that with so few people having been exposed, social distancing and an economic shutdown is just delaying the inevitable. Even if the number of infected is 10x as much as reported, which is on the high-end of estimates, that still leaves 97% of the country currently unexposed. So whether you shut down the economy for four weeks or four months, a second wave is nearly inevitable if you don't actually identify the clusters of outbreaks before they get out of control.
So we can keep doing this song and dance of opening, closing, and distancing for the next 18 months, which is probably the status quo needed to prevent the hospital system from being overwhelmed, and we'll all wake up when this is over in 2022 with a third world economy. Or we can actually inject some precision into our response and better understand who, when, and where infections are happening. That'll require testing to the tunes of millions per day, much larger than our current rate of 100,000 per day.
Noted liberal rag Vox (sorry @Sledog, you might want to sit this one out) gives a pretty good breakdown of the different estimates out there for how much testing is likely needed to open our economy back to an acceptable level. In short - we've got a long ways to go.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening
So we can keep doing this song and dance of opening, closing, and distancing for the next 18 months, which is probably the status quo needed to prevent the hospital system from being overwhelmed, and we'll all wake up when this is over in 2022 with a third world economy. Or we can actually inject some precision into our response and better understand who, when, and where infections are happening. That'll require testing to the tunes of millions per day, much larger than our current rate of 100,000 per day.
Noted liberal rag Vox (sorry @Sledog, you might want to sit this one out) gives a pretty good breakdown of the different estimates out there for how much testing is likely needed to open our economy back to an acceptable level. In short - we've got a long ways to go.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening
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What is true is that most of the world is convinced that letting the disease run amok will overwhelm the hospital systems. You can argue about how stupid that is, but no government is going to choose door 1 of "let's go back to normal with no mitigating steps". So the only realistic way out of here is wide scale testing.
We were lied to about the capacity issues being real, but at least that early narrative had some semblance of logic from a business and resources perspective.
Mass testing is fucking stupid and isn’t going to happen. It’s totally unexecutable and not necessary, targeted sampling is enough.
I agree that the government and companies are going to be pussies until we make it clear. Its a huge issue
If tests will open then test
edit: what @Bob_C said
Fuck off. Tee it up boys
Anybody can get tested right now, be clean, then go to the grocery store 30 minutes later and be infected.
Save the testing for areas where there’s reason for concern ... can’t go through airport security unless you test negative
Normal protocol is to isolate the sick and vulnerable and let the healthy go about their lives. If a vaccine becomes available let those that choose to get vaccinated do so. Continue to manufacture and make available HCQ as a treatment.
The health authorities, their predictive models and the Governors that
We put a man on the moon, can't pull off widespread testing.
Sure thing.
Business leaders told Trump mass testing is critical. Bulletin board Bob_C says it isn't, not even possible.
Take you pick
But experts say..
The same dumbfucks that got us here
No they didn't.
These guys are experts - in business, not health care, and they say we need mass testing. Of course, the Coca Cola CEO got behind new Coke, so maybe they aren't experts.
Is there a problem with mass testing? Is it about muh freedom? Did I miss the case against mass testing? Did Hillary say we need mass testing?
I’m definitely not going to look to the computer models for my lottery number. Their track record is worse than mine.
“Here we go....!!”