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Tariffs don’t work until they do
Comments
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Sure I do bro. I'm way older that you @UW_Doog_Bot and when I was a little So Cal kiddie skiing at Deer Valley many of the train signs were in both Engrish and Japanese. But there's a big there's a big difference between the Japanese and Ze Chermans buying up the US in the 1980's and China now. Both Japan and Germany were close allies and Japan to this day still isn't independent from the US in terms of its foreign policy.UW_Doog_Bot said:YellowSnow said:
Prayingdoog.gifUW_Doog_Bot said:
LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.YellowSnow said:
I hate Trump but love Team America!!UW_Doog_Bot said:
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.CirrhosisDawg said:
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bqCPDYxft4
The CCP has over reached. Remember when we were worried about ze Germans? or the Japanese? buying up the US?
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I'm just saying that eventually both(and especially Japan) fell back down to earth and were forced to deal with economic realities after their "miracles".YellowSnow said:
Sure I do bro. I'm way older that you @UW_Doog_Bot and when I was a little So Cal kiddie skiing at Deer Valley many of the train signs were in both Engrish and Japanese. But there's a big there's a big difference between the Japanese and Ze Chermans buying up the US in the 1980's and China now. Both Japan and Germany were close allies and Japan to this day still isn't independent from the US in terms of its foreign policy.UW_Doog_Bot said:YellowSnow said:
Prayingdoog.gifUW_Doog_Bot said:
LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.YellowSnow said:
I hate Trump but love Team America!!UW_Doog_Bot said:
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.CirrhosisDawg said:
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bqCPDYxft4
The CCP has over reached. Remember when we were worried about ze Germans? or the Japanese? buying up the US? -
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.greenblood said:
Read the Hondo News Network article.CirrhosisDawg said:
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust? -
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.CirrhosisDawg said:
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.greenblood said:
Read the Hondo News Network article.CirrhosisDawg said:
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust? -
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.greenblood said:
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.CirrhosisDawg said:
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.greenblood said:
Read the Hondo News Network article.CirrhosisDawg said:
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust? -
We are just mean. Why can't we make a deal similar to what we did for Iran?CirrhosisDawg said:
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.greenblood said:
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.CirrhosisDawg said:
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.greenblood said:
Read the Hondo News Network article.CirrhosisDawg said:
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust? -
I understand why you’d want to change the subject right now.greenblood said:
We are just mean. Why can't we make a deal similar to what we did for Iran?CirrhosisDawg said:
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.greenblood said:
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.CirrhosisDawg said:
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.greenblood said:
Read the Hondo News Network article.CirrhosisDawg said:
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust? -
You should stick to calling Trump obeseCirrhosisDawg said:
I understand why you’d want to change the subject right now.greenblood said:
We are just mean. Why can't we make a deal similar to what we did for Iran?CirrhosisDawg said:
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.greenblood said:
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.CirrhosisDawg said:
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.greenblood said:
Read the Hondo News Network article.CirrhosisDawg said:
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
It's pretty much your speed limit -
RaceBannon said:
Chinese have been usingcreepycoug said:
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.UW_Doog_Bot said:The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
Beverly HillsVancouver, BC, Seattle, and Bellevue real estate as a bank. China periodically clamps down on cash leaving. Big effect on prices -
Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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True
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Will do. Trump is seriously fat. You and green bob have nailed the Chinese trade deal analysis.RaceBannon said:
You should stick to calling Trump obeseCirrhosisDawg said:
I understand why you’d want to change the subject right now.greenblood said:
We are just mean. Why can't we make a deal similar to what we did for Iran?CirrhosisDawg said:
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.greenblood said:
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.CirrhosisDawg said:
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.greenblood said:
Read the Hondo News Network article.CirrhosisDawg said:
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
It's pretty much your speed limit -
True
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He’s also orangeCirrhosisDawg said:
Will do. Trump is seriously fat. You and green bob have nailed the Chinese trade deal analysis.RaceBannon said:
You should stick to calling Trump obeseCirrhosisDawg said:
I understand why you’d want to change the subject right now.greenblood said:
We are just mean. Why can't we make a deal similar to what we did for Iran?CirrhosisDawg said:
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.greenblood said:
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.CirrhosisDawg said:
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.greenblood said:
Read the Hondo News Network article.CirrhosisDawg said:
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
It's pretty much your speed limit -
Don’t forget an imbecile too.
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But he's made it to President and you made it to Glendale! You Armenian? Brow down!CirrhosisDawg said:Don’t forget an imbecile too.
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Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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I love this bored
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Haha. I drop that one from time to time. Especially when some fucktard tells me we are screwed when China “calls in the debt”.UW_Doog_Bot said:creepycoug said:
This is why I come to the Tug. You see?UW_Doog_Bot said:
It will be and won't be 2008. You've got a lot of differences in how things are interlaced. This resembles the Asian Financial Crisis build up a lot more than the US recession IMO.creepycoug said:
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.UW_Doog_Bot said:The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
While there's a whole lot of Chinese money going into real estate around the globe atm last I checked figures for the US housing market still peg foreign investment at less than 5% of total. (Realistically who fucking knows though, see the panama papers)
China is a house of cards but who in their right mind invested in China as anything other than a high risk proposition? They don't even actually recognize property rights after all.
China is also only the second largest market, by a long ways at that, as opposed to the US, plus European debt doesn't look so tied to it. The Chinese market can definitely effect foreign markets, but not remotely the way the US market does globally.
Then you also need to figure out if China dips into recession is that going to cause further monetary flight from China that may offset the decrease in total available demand from China.
Then figure out if the CCP is going to survive a recession or not. Who fucking knows?
My non-expert opinion is we will see an extended global slump as China enters a prolonged hangover as all of the stage 2 effects of its economic revolution begin to materialize. I think structurally though, the US is in a better position than it was in 2008 and while you might see markets take a fairly large downward adjustment initially from a lack of foreign demand most of the long term economics still look sound enough; labor participation(despite what hondo thinks), demographics, no significant over leveraged markets, interest rates have room to move, etc.
*shrug just what I'm hearing out here. Don't twist.
I've got cocktail party material here for weeks. Shits going to make me look good.
[Some other guy]: We can't fuck with China. Do you realize how important they are to the global economy? They can crush us any time they want.
[Creep]: Well, let me lay some knowledge on you Kojak.
It's a common misconception encouraged by various players but yeah, China owns a small percentage of our overall debt and is ultimately pretty meaningless to demand for US treasuries. I just went through that conversation with another(highly educated) coworker. -
Now you hate people that don't need the government to provide a service to them?TurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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The short bus arrives
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Figured you'd be the first person that's butthurt over that comment.RaceBannon said:The short bus arrives
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No, I don't like septic systems because they're antiques that frequently cause problems with adjoining land, leading to litigation and needless expenses, while restricting or de-valuing developable properties, which in turn costs me time and money better spent in other ways to improve humanity.2001400ex said:
Now you hate people that don't need the government to provide a service to them?TurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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Same argument can be made for our medical insurance system.TurdBomber said:
No, I don't like septic systems because they're antiques that frequently cause problems with adjoining land, leading to litigation and needless expenses, while restricting or de-valuing developable properties, which in turn costs me time and money better spent in other ways to improve humanity.2001400ex said:
Now you hate people that don't need the government to provide a service to them?TurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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You are Retarded.2001400ex said:
Same argument can be made for our medical insurance system.TurdBomber said:
No, I don't like septic systems because they're antiques that frequently cause problems with adjoining land, leading to litigation and needless expenses, while restricting or de-valuing developable properties, which in turn costs me time and money better spent in other ways to improve humanity.2001400ex said:
Now you hate people that don't need the government to provide a service to them?TurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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Benny has asked for serious discussion only. No one liners or snarky comments2001400ex said:
Figured you'd be the first person that's butthurt over that comment.RaceBannon said:The short bus arrives
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lolTurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
Sure, faggot.
You're such a dumb motherfucker. You're going to stick to this idiotic story line, shit pumper? TurdEaterFS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTmL4goF4nA
