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Tariffs don’t work until they do
Comments
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I love this bored
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Haha. I drop that one from time to time. Especially when some fucktard tells me we are screwed when China “calls in the debt”.UW_Doog_Bot said:creepycoug said:
This is why I come to the Tug. You see?UW_Doog_Bot said:
It will be and won't be 2008. You've got a lot of differences in how things are interlaced. This resembles the Asian Financial Crisis build up a lot more than the US recession IMO.creepycoug said:
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.UW_Doog_Bot said:The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
While there's a whole lot of Chinese money going into real estate around the globe atm last I checked figures for the US housing market still peg foreign investment at less than 5% of total. (Realistically who fucking knows though, see the panama papers)
China is a house of cards but who in their right mind invested in China as anything other than a high risk proposition? They don't even actually recognize property rights after all.
China is also only the second largest market, by a long ways at that, as opposed to the US, plus European debt doesn't look so tied to it. The Chinese market can definitely effect foreign markets, but not remotely the way the US market does globally.
Then you also need to figure out if China dips into recession is that going to cause further monetary flight from China that may offset the decrease in total available demand from China.
Then figure out if the CCP is going to survive a recession or not. Who fucking knows?
My non-expert opinion is we will see an extended global slump as China enters a prolonged hangover as all of the stage 2 effects of its economic revolution begin to materialize. I think structurally though, the US is in a better position than it was in 2008 and while you might see markets take a fairly large downward adjustment initially from a lack of foreign demand most of the long term economics still look sound enough; labor participation(despite what hondo thinks), demographics, no significant over leveraged markets, interest rates have room to move, etc.
*shrug just what I'm hearing out here. Don't twist.
I've got cocktail party material here for weeks. Shits going to make me look good.
[Some other guy]: We can't fuck with China. Do you realize how important they are to the global economy? They can crush us any time they want.
[Creep]: Well, let me lay some knowledge on you Kojak.
It's a common misconception encouraged by various players but yeah, China owns a small percentage of our overall debt and is ultimately pretty meaningless to demand for US treasuries. I just went through that conversation with another(highly educated) coworker. -
Now you hate people that don't need the government to provide a service to them?TurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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The short bus arrives
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Figured you'd be the first person that's butthurt over that comment.RaceBannon said:The short bus arrives
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No, I don't like septic systems because they're antiques that frequently cause problems with adjoining land, leading to litigation and needless expenses, while restricting or de-valuing developable properties, which in turn costs me time and money better spent in other ways to improve humanity.2001400ex said:
Now you hate people that don't need the government to provide a service to them?TurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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Same argument can be made for our medical insurance system.TurdBomber said:
No, I don't like septic systems because they're antiques that frequently cause problems with adjoining land, leading to litigation and needless expenses, while restricting or de-valuing developable properties, which in turn costs me time and money better spent in other ways to improve humanity.2001400ex said:
Now you hate people that don't need the government to provide a service to them?TurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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You are Retarded.2001400ex said:
Same argument can be made for our medical insurance system.TurdBomber said:
No, I don't like septic systems because they're antiques that frequently cause problems with adjoining land, leading to litigation and needless expenses, while restricting or de-valuing developable properties, which in turn costs me time and money better spent in other ways to improve humanity.2001400ex said:
Now you hate people that don't need the government to provide a service to them?TurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
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Benny has asked for serious discussion only. No one liners or snarky comments2001400ex said:
Figured you'd be the first person that's butthurt over that comment.RaceBannon said:The short bus arrives
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lolTurdBomber said:
If you're on septic, you're poor. Sorry to all my landed friends with acreage and 4 car garages, but if you're storing your shit in a tank for years, then having it sucked out by a truck, you're not rich.GrundleStiltzkin said:
Only septic tank people shop thereTurdBomber said:
Harbor Freight is cheap, low quality crap. I feel sorry for anyone who shops at that Dollar Store.UW_Doog_Bot said:Anything you guys were thinking about buying at harbor freight probably outta do it now.
Sure, faggot.
You're such a dumb motherfucker. You're going to stick to this idiotic story line, shit pumper? TurdEaterFS.
