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Tariffs don’t work until they do

greenblood
greenblood Member Posts: 14,559
edited April 2019 in Tug Tavern
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-26/china-s-xi-signals-approval-for-trump-s-trade-war-demands

But but Trump is still orange and fat. Right CD?
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  • SFGbob
    SFGbob Member Posts: 33,183
    Orange, fat and a pussy
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  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    Winning!!! Bigly!!!
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,831 Founders Club
    More horrible news
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  • PostGameOrangeSlices
    PostGameOrangeSlices Member Posts: 27,196
    2001400ex said:

    Winning!!! Bigly!!!

    What is the point of following this board as diligently as you do?
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  • SFGbob
    SFGbob Member Posts: 33,183
    PostGameOrangeSlices said:

    2001400ex said:

    Winning!!! Bigly!!!

    What is the point of following this board as diligently as you do?
    A ploy for attention.
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  • UWhuskytskeet
    UWhuskytskeet Member Posts: 7,113

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  • TurdBomber
    TurdBomber Member Posts: 20,035 Standard Supporter
    edited May 2019
    greenblood said:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-26/china-s-xi-signals-approval-for-trump-s-trade-war-demands

    But but Trump is still orange and fat. Right CD?

    And you are "White Trash."

    CD loves ancient phrasing.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,831 Founders Club
    UWhuskytskeet said:


    In 2 days this will be ironic
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,831 Founders Club
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.

    We passed on the meaningless agreement. That's why talks stopped. China wanted the intellectual property stuff out and we walked

    They need us more than we need them. And we are proceeding with that in mind

    Kind of a new thing compared to our give away the store elites

    Can China wait for the chance of their butt boy Biden winning? Stay tuned
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,037
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.

    This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,831 Founders Club
    creepycoug said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.

    This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.
    Chinese have been using Beverly Hills real estate as a bank. China periodically clamps down on cash leaving. Big effect on prices
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  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,559
    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
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  • CirrhosisDawg
    CirrhosisDawg Member Posts: 6,390
    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    Already approved? By whom?
    Just like North Korea denuclearization?

    If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
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  • CirrhosisDawg
    CirrhosisDawg Member Posts: 6,390
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.

    My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
    Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.

    I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,063 Founders Club
    creepycoug said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.

    This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.
    It will be and won't be 2008. You've got a lot of differences in how things are interlaced. This resembles the Asian Financial Crisis build up a lot more than the US recession IMO.

    While there's a whole lot of Chinese money going into real estate around the globe atm last I checked figures for the US housing market still peg foreign investment at less than 5% of total. (Realistically who fucking knows though, see the panama papers)

    China is a house of cards but who in their right mind invested in China as anything other than a high risk proposition? They don't even actually recognize property rights after all.

    China is also only the second largest market, by a long ways at that, as opposed to the US, plus European debt doesn't look so tied to it. The Chinese market can definitely effect foreign markets, but not remotely the way the US market does globally.

    Then you also need to figure out if China dips into recession is that going to cause further monetary flight from China that may offset the decrease in total available demand from China.

    Then figure out if the CCP is going to survive a recession or not. Who fucking knows?

    My non-expert opinion is we will see an extended global slump as China enters a prolonged hangover as all of the stage 2 effects of its economic revolution begin to materialize. I think structurally though, the US is in a better position than it was in 2008 and while you might see markets take a fairly large downward adjustment initially from a lack of foreign demand most of the long term economics still look sound enough; labor participation(despite what hondo thinks), demographics, no significant over leveraged markets, interest rates have room to move, etc.

    *shrug just what I'm hearing out here. Don't twist.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,063 Founders Club
    edited May 2019
    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.

    My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
    Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.

    I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
    My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.

    Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
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  • CirrhosisDawg
    CirrhosisDawg Member Posts: 6,390
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.

    My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
    Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.

    I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
    My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.

    Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
    Agree.
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  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    YellowSnow said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.

    My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
    Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.

    I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
    My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.

    Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
    I hate Trump but love Team America!!

    What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
    Fuck 5G man. Get with 6G.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,063 Founders Club
    YellowSnow said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.

    My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
    Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.

    I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
    My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.

    Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
    I hate Trump but love Team America!!

    What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
    LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.

    Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
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  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,240 Founders Club
    UW_Doog_Bot said:


    YellowSnow said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.

    My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
    Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.

    I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
    My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.

    Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
    I hate Trump but love Team America!!

    What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
    LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.

    Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
    Prayingdoog.gif

    God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,063 Founders Club
    YellowSnow said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:


    YellowSnow said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    CirrhosisDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.

    My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
    Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.

    I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
    My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.

    Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
    I hate Trump but love Team America!!

    What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
    LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.

    Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
    Prayingdoog.gif

    God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bqCPDYxft4

    The CCP has over reached. Remember when we were worried about ze Germans? or the Japanese? buying up the US?


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  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,559
    edited May 2019
    CirrhosisDawg said:

    greenblood said:

    China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html

    Already approved? By whom?
    Just like North Korea denuclearization?

    If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
    Read the Hondo News Network article.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,063 Founders Club
    edited May 2019
    creepycoug said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    creepycoug said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.

    This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.
    It will be and won't be 2008. You've got a lot of differences in how things are interlaced. This resembles the Asian Financial Crisis build up a lot more than the US recession IMO.

    While there's a whole lot of Chinese money going into real estate around the globe atm last I checked figures for the US housing market still peg foreign investment at less than 5% of total. (Realistically who fucking knows though, see the panama papers)

    China is a house of cards but who in their right mind invested in China as anything other than a high risk proposition? They don't even actually recognize property rights after all.

    China is also only the second largest market, by a long ways at that, as opposed to the US, plus European debt doesn't look so tied to it. The Chinese market can definitely effect foreign markets, but not remotely the way the US market does globally.

    Then you also need to figure out if China dips into recession is that going to cause further monetary flight from China that may offset the decrease in total available demand from China.

    Then figure out if the CCP is going to survive a recession or not. Who fucking knows?

    My non-expert opinion is we will see an extended global slump as China enters a prolonged hangover as all of the stage 2 effects of its economic revolution begin to materialize. I think structurally though, the US is in a better position than it was in 2008 and while you might see markets take a fairly large downward adjustment initially from a lack of foreign demand most of the long term economics still look sound enough; labor participation(despite what hondo thinks), demographics, no significant over leveraged markets, interest rates have room to move, etc.

    *shrug just what I'm hearing out here. Don't twist.
    This is why I come to the Tug. You see?

    I've got cocktail party material here for weeks. Shits going to make me look good.

    [Some other guy]: We can't fuck with China. Do you realize how important they are to the global economy? They can crush us any time they want.

    [Creep]: Well, let me lay some knowledge on you Kojak.




    It's a common misconception encouraged by various players but yeah, China owns a small percentage of our overall debt and is ultimately pretty meaningless to demand for US treasuries. I just went through that conversation with another(highly educated) coworker.
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