I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
I hate Trump but love Team America!!
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
I hate Trump but love Team America!!
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
I hate Trump but love Team America!!
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.
Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
I hate Trump but love Team America!!
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.
Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
Prayingdoog.gif
God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
I hate Trump but love Team America!!
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.
Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
Prayingdoog.gif
God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.
The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.
It will be and won't be 2008. You've got a lot of differences in how things are interlaced. This resembles the Asian Financial Crisis build up a lot more than the US recession IMO.
While there's a whole lot of Chinese money going into real estate around the globe atm last I checked figures for the US housing market still peg foreign investment at less than 5% of total. (Realistically who fucking knows though, see the panama papers)
China is a house of cards but who in their right mind invested in China as anything other than a high risk proposition? They don't even actually recognize property rights after all.
China is also only the second largest market, by a long ways at that, as opposed to the US, plus European debt doesn't look so tied to it. The Chinese market can definitely effect foreign markets, but not remotely the way the US market does globally.
Then you also need to figure out if China dips into recession is that going to cause further monetary flight from China that may offset the decrease in total available demand from China.
Then figure out if the CCP is going to survive a recession or not. Who fucking knows?
My non-expert opinion is we will see an extended global slump as China enters a prolonged hangover as all of the stage 2 effects of its economic revolution begin to materialize. I think structurally though, the US is in a better position than it was in 2008 and while you might see markets take a fairly large downward adjustment initially from a lack of foreign demand most of the long term economics still look sound enough; labor participation(despite what hondo thinks), demographics, no significant over leveraged markets, interest rates have room to move, etc.
*shrug just what I'm hearing out here. Don't twist.
This is why I come to the Tug. You see?
I've got cocktail party material here for weeks. Shits going to make me look good.
[Some other guy]: We can't fuck with China. Do you realize how important they are to the global economy? They can crush us any time they want.
[Creep]: Well, let me lay some knowledge on you Kojak.
The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.
It will be and won't be 2008. You've got a lot of differences in how things are interlaced. This resembles the Asian Financial Crisis build up a lot more than the US recession IMO.
While there's a whole lot of Chinese money going into real estate around the globe atm last I checked figures for the US housing market still peg foreign investment at less than 5% of total. (Realistically who fucking knows though, see the panama papers)
China is a house of cards but who in their right mind invested in China as anything other than a high risk proposition? They don't even actually recognize property rights after all.
China is also only the second largest market, by a long ways at that, as opposed to the US, plus European debt doesn't look so tied to it. The Chinese market can definitely effect foreign markets, but not remotely the way the US market does globally.
Then you also need to figure out if China dips into recession is that going to cause further monetary flight from China that may offset the decrease in total available demand from China.
Then figure out if the CCP is going to survive a recession or not. Who fucking knows?
My non-expert opinion is we will see an extended global slump as China enters a prolonged hangover as all of the stage 2 effects of its economic revolution begin to materialize. I think structurally though, the US is in a better position than it was in 2008 and while you might see markets take a fairly large downward adjustment initially from a lack of foreign demand most of the long term economics still look sound enough; labor participation(despite what hondo thinks), demographics, no significant over leveraged markets, interest rates have room to move, etc.
*shrug just what I'm hearing out here. Don't twist.
This is why I come to the Tug. You see?
I've got cocktail party material here for weeks. Shits going to make me look good.
[Some other guy]: We can't fuck with China. Do you realize how important they are to the global economy? They can crush us any time they want.
[Creep]: Well, let me lay some knowledge on you Kojak.
It's a common misconception encouraged by various players but yeah, China owns a small percentage of our overall debt and is ultimately pretty meaningless to demand for US treasuries. I just went through that conversation with another(highly educated) coworker.
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
No President wants to see an all-out trade war. The pain is too great and the payoff too long for the American attention span. I think Trump knows the American voter pretty well; he's demonstrated as much. He knows what Andrew Breitbart knew very well: in this country, celebrity is EVERYTHING. Trump knows how to market his actions very well.
Look at Korea. Think he thought he was actually going to de-nuke fat boy? He knew he wasn't, but he also knew that Americans respect strength and balls, and he showed them with fat boy, who I hear still has nukes.
Still, I'm shamelessly taking @UW_Doog_Bot 's take on China with me to the next party and I'm going to pontificate like a mother fucker.
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
I hate Trump but love Team America!!
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.
Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
Prayingdoog.gif
God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.
The CCP has over reached. Remember when we were worried about ze Germans? or the Japanese? buying up the US?
Sure I do bro. I'm way older that you @UW_Doog_Bot and when I was a little So Cal kiddie skiing at Deer Valley many of the train signs were in both Engrish and Japanese. But there's a big there's a big difference between the Japanese and Ze Chermans buying up the US in the 1980's and China now. Both Japan and Germany were close allies and Japan to this day still isn't independent from the US in terms of its foreign policy.
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
I hate Trump but love Team America!!
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
LIPO mostly. They are ahead because they've spent billions on subsidizing a state owned company or two while price dumping into the rest of the world to gain market share. Lots of governments are wising up to this though and banning Chinese telecoms. If that continues to happen(which I think it will since who fucking wants the CCP literally spying on all of your communications?) look for lots of the traditional players to make up market share in a hurry.
Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
Prayingdoog.gif
God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.
The CCP has over reached. Remember when we were worried about ze Germans? or the Japanese? buying up the US?
Sure I do bro. I'm way older that you @UW_Doog_Bot and when I was a little So Cal kiddie skiing at Deer Valley many of the train signs were in both Engrish and Japanese. But there's a big there's a big difference between the Japanese and Ze Chermans buying up the US in the 1980's and China now. Both Japan and Germany were close allies and Japan to this day still isn't independent from the US in terms of its foreign policy.
I'm just saying that eventually both(and especially Japan) fell back down to earth and were forced to deal with economic realities after their "miracles".
Already approved? By whom? Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
Read the Hondo News Network article.
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.
Already approved? By whom? Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
Read the Hondo News Network article.
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.
Already approved? By whom? Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
Read the Hondo News Network article.
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.
We are just mean. Why can't we make a deal similar to what we did for Iran?
Already approved? By whom? Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
Read the Hondo News Network article.
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.
We are just mean. Why can't we make a deal similar to what we did for Iran?
I understand why you’d want to change the subject right now.
Already approved? By whom? Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust?
Read the Hondo News Network article.
You should remind Xi Jinping he APPROVED trump’s trade deal points.
That’s why you have guys negotiating for you. If Xi Jinping didn’t like the progressing terms, maybe he should negotiate himself or put Swaye in charge.
The Chinese need to get their act together. Seriously embarrassing themselves. Is this lack of good faith or incompetence by the Chinese? These are SERIOUS negotiations.
We are just mean. Why can't we make a deal similar to what we did for Iran?
I understand why you’d want to change the subject right now.
The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.
Chinese have been using Beverly Hills Vancouver, BC, Seattle, and Bellevue real estate as a bank. China periodically clamps down on cash leaving. Big effect on prices
Comments
What's your take @UW_Doog_Bot on Chiner and them being so far ahead of us in 5G?
Also see the above scenario, Hauwei will be in for a world of hurt if China goes into recession or is forced to actually respect IP for a plethora of reasons.
God I hope you're right. China and the CCP with telecom and microchip is scaring the fucking out of me.
The CCP has over reached. Remember when we were worried about ze Germans? or the Japanese? buying up the US?
I've got cocktail party material here for weeks. Shits going to make me look good.
[Some other guy]: We can't fuck with China. Do you realize how important they are to the global economy? They can crush us any time they want.
[Creep]: Well, let me lay some knowledge on you Kojak.
It's a common misconception encouraged by various players but yeah, China owns a small percentage of our overall debt and is ultimately pretty meaningless to demand for US treasuries. I just went through that conversation with another(highly educated) coworker.
Look at Korea. Think he thought he was actually going to de-nuke fat boy? He knew he wasn't, but he also knew that Americans respect strength and balls, and he showed them with fat boy, who I hear still has nukes.
Still, I'm shamelessly taking @UW_Doog_Bot 's take on China with me to the next party and I'm going to pontificate like a mother fucker.
It's pretty much your speed limit